How many positions are the Chiefs better than the 49ers?

 

Let’s talk it out. This is subjective but I feel like I have a strong read on these two teams. In close matchups, and especially the OL, I will defer to PFF player grades. Say what you want about PFF, they have their flaws for sure, but they are also the best metric we have right now to evaluate overall play, especially on the OL.

 

I’m going to break the personnel rankings down in this game with all the starters and the depth players at a few positions who I think will see significant playing time. This obviously isn’t a direct matchup but a man-for-man who has the better player at each position.

 

 

 

QUARTERBACK

 

Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy G – Edge KC

 

Not much needs to be said here. Jimmy G is a lot better than people think but the Chiefs have a big edge at QB.

 

 

RUNNING BACK

 

RB1 – Mostert over Damian Williams – Edge SF

 

RB2 – Breida over McCoy?? – Edge SF

 

This is a runaway for SF. Mostert and Breida are significantly better than Damian Williams and whoever the Chiefs decide to throw out as RB2. McCoy was a healthy scratch in the AFC Champ game.

 

 

 

FULLBACK

 

Kyle Juszczyk over Anthony Sherman – Edge SF

 

You can question this one because Sherman doesn’t play much and the FB isn’t a big part of the KC offense. He’s played 108 snaps the entire season. But you have to account for the fact the Juszczyk is darn good and a fairly important part of the SF offense. He’s a great blocker and their 5 leading receiver despite missing multiple games.

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER

 

WR1 – Tyreek Hill over Emmanuel Sanders – Edge KC

 

WR2 – Deebo Samuel over Sammy Watkins – Edge SF

 

WR3 – Mecole Hardman over Kendrick Bourne – Edge KC

 

You have to give the Chiefs the edge here.

 

 

 

TIGHT END

 

George Kittle over Travis Kelce – Edge SF

 

This will be hotly debated. Kelce has slightly better receiving stats but Kittle is an elite blocker and he graded significantly better than Kelce this year on PFF. In fact, he was the single highest graded player in the league. It’s close but Kittle was the better player this year.

 

 

 

OFFENSIVE LINE

 

LT – Joe Staley over Eric Fisher – Edge SF

 

LG – Andrew Wylie over Laken Tomlinson – Edge KC

 

C – Ben Garland over Austin Reiter – Edge SF

 

RG – Mike Person over Laurent Tardif – Edge SF

 

RT – Mitchell Schwartz over Mike McGlinchey – Edge KC

 

I think it’s widely accepted Staley and Schwartz are elite players at their positions. The interior of the 49ers OL graded better than Chiefs this season. They were 8 in adjusted line yards while KC was 28. The Chiefs sack rate is not enough to make up the difference. The 49ers have the better offensive line and a 3-2 edge in positional rankings seems correct.

 

 

DEFENSIVE LINE

 

 

 

EDGE1 – Nick Bosa over Frank Clark – Edge SF

 

EDGE2 – Arik Armstead over Terrell Suggs – Edge SF

 

EDGE3 – Dee Ford over Tanoh Kpassagnon – Edge SF

 

DI – Chris Jones over DeForest Buckner – Edge KC

 

DI – Mike Pennel over Solomon Thomas – Edge KC

 

 

 

Overall SF has a massive edge here. The four DL the 49ers will play in high leverage situations are orders of magnitude better than the four that KC has. All three edge positions are beatings for the Niners as Bosa, Armstead and Ford are elite players. I gave KC Jones over Buckner on the interior but it is razor thin. Just like Kittle/Kelce as Buckner is still a great player. And Pennel over Thomas is a small edge for KC as neither player plays much.

 

 

 

LINEBACKER

 

 

 

LB1 – Fred Warner over Damien Wilson – Edge SF

 

LB2 – Dre Greenlaw over Anthony Hitchens – Edge SF

 

LB3 – Kwon Alexander over Reggie Ragland – Edge SF

 

 

 

This isn’t even close. The Chiefs might have the worst LB corps in the entire league. SF has a massive edge.

 

 

 

CORNERBACK

 

 

 

CB1 – Richard Sherman over Charvarious Ward – Edge SF

 

CB2 – K’Waun Williams over Bashaud Breeland – Edge SF

 

CB3 – Emmanuel Mosley over Rashad Fenton – Edge SF

 

 

 

This isn’t even close either. Sherman was the best CB in football this year and Williams was arguably the top slot guy. Mosley is their worst CB of the three and he graded Top 30 this year. The three Chiefs CB are complete trash in my opinion.

 

 

 

SAFETY

 

FS – Jimmie Ward over Daniel Sorenson – Edge SF

 

SS – Tyrann Mathieu over Jaquiski Tartt – Edge KC

 

 

 

The honey badger plays all over the field and is often in the box. I put him at SS but effectively all four of these guys are interchangeable. In any matchup I think it’s a dead draw and one each. Mathieu has been awesome this year but Jimmie Ward is a great player no one has heard of.

 

 

 

COACHING

 

 

 

Draw. Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are elite coaches at game planning, exploiting weaknesses, and making in-game adjustments. Each is also just as likely as the other to make a late -EV decision on 4 down and to mess up the clock. There’s no edge here for either team in the coaching department.

 

 

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

 

 

Edge KC. The Chiefs special teams is 2 in DVOA while the 49ers are 12. I think the Chiefs probably have the better kicker and Hardman or Hill returning kicks and punts is an edge I don’t think SF can match.

 

In summation I have an 18-9 advantage for San Francisco in positions that I think will see significant playing time in this game.

 

 

 

Kansas City has clearly the better QB, special teams, and a smaller edge in receiving corps as a whole. The 49ers have clearly the better running backs, defensive line, linebackers, secondary, and a smaller edge on the OL.

 

 

 

I think the question here is simple: Is Mahomes and a special teams edge enough to compensate and then some for the 49ers having more talent?

 

 

 

Anyone betting on Kansas City is going to say yes. And while a super elite QB like Mahomes is capable of beating any defense in today’s NFL I think the 49ers possess two counters that will make it difficult:

 

 

 

First and foremost is the ability to get pressure with four. The 49ers front four is elite. Mahomes is the same guy vs the blitz when not blitzed but completed 49% of his passes when under pressure. The 49ers rank 1, 2 or 3 in every pressure/sack stat. This is going to be far different from the garbage defenses Mahomes saw vs Houston and Tennessee. If you go back and look at the two playoff games Mahomes had all day to throw. Houston ranks in the bottom 5 in most pass rush stats and the Titans are in the 20s. Cameron Wake had the third most pressures for the Titans this year and he played nine games.

 

 

 

Secondly, and there’s no real way to quantify this, the 49ers have the team speed on defense to hang with the Chiefs. This is the fastest defense I have seen in quite a while and they can certainly somewhat counter the Chiefs speed on offense.

 

 

 

 

I’ve always thought your weaknesses get exposed in the playoffs. To me the Chiefs defense, and run defense in particular is a huge weakness. Their run defense is ranked 29 in DVOA. I know they stopped Henry but keep in mind they loaded the box and Henry was on his 4 straight road game with massive usage the previous three games. And honestly, the biggest factor there was the Titans with Ryan Tannehill on the road and nobody besides AJ Brown to throw to could not attack behind those stacked boxes. That’s not going to be the case here. I think KC will stack the box early (they almost have to) and Shanahan knows this and will scheme up play actions with a better QB and way better receivers than the Titans. Kittle, Sanders, Deebo potential getting one on ones against stacked boxes vs these DB will be a dream.

 

 

 

The 49ers weakness? Well by DVOA it is rush offense at 13…and we know that is just not right. Rush defense at 11? Maybe, but the Chiefs don’t run the ball and when they do they do so inefficiently. Most will say Jimmy G. But I posted this somewhere on this forum last week: He was great down the stretch in road games at Baltimore, New Orleans, and Seattle. All playoff type games in three stadiums that are Top 5 loudest in the league. He completed at least 71% in all three games with ratings of 110, 132, and 119 and only threw one pick. He went shot for shot with Drew Brees in the Superdome in the game of the year. Many won’t trust him but he’s better than you think.

 

 

 

Top to bottom the 49ers are the better team. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses and they possess the best unit in the league capable of stopping Mahomes and one of the best units in the league capable of exploiting the Chiefs defense. We’ll see if Mahomes is capable of overcoming a lot for the Chiefs. He’s a special talent and it’s certainly possible, but more often than not when you’ve got the better team that matches up well at +1.5 you are going to win in the long run. And that to me is clearly the 49ers.

 

Special shout out to the Covers reCAPTCHA and formatting. That is BRUTAL but the only I way I could post it. Maybe a mod could fix those posts and formatting?

wow what a read up love the work my man!

Thanks Andarmac for getting this discussion started. You have provided a lot of information and opinions to keep us talking right up to the game.

nice breakdown andarmac. i have close to 16/11 edge for SF but not too far off from your assessment. i give slight edge to KC over SF on the O-line i think Reiter is a bit better than Garland but Garland has admirably stepped in for Richburg for these 5 games. of course Mahomes mobility does help make his O-line look better. if Garropolo played behind KC O-line i think it may be close to equal but i'll give slight edge to KC here. no doubt Mahomes will be the xfactor and his performance will decide if KC wins the Super Bowl

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Nice breakdown

Max bet on San Fran for me. BUT....if you don't pressure Mahomes or let him free to run up the sidelines for twenty yards whenever he needs to, he will eat San Fran alive just like he did the last two teams he faced. We live in an age where dominant QB's are super dominant. I am betting that the San Fran defense is good enough to limit this superstar but that KC team isn't just Mahomes. Brilliant coach, speed demon wide receivers. So place your bets and enjoy the game. But the one key I will be watching is how much time Mahomes has to throw. If he has time to throw, worry, worry a lot. 

Agree on almost everything. But Spagnuolo vs Shany is a big coaching mismatch. KC will have to score to keep up.

Heres a suggestion on the  "the reCAPTCHA code and formatting" when you do a lengthy write up type it separately in another app Notes then copy a short amount of your paragraphs & then Copy & paste into the Reply section before you press the "Submit" button, then when the reCaptcha code shows up in RED AGAIN Click the Submit button and it should form but in "short paragraphs only" 

It's a Pain in the a*s*s so doing long paragraphs is Time consuming *ugh

whew does that make sense to you andermac I'm sure your smart enough to figure it out 

Andarmac one of the best on Covers bar none very impressive reading indeed 

49ers dominate in the trenches - that’s the most important thing - O-line and D-line this game will get ugly - SF defense is fully healthy - I expect a 49ers blowout 

Posts like this are few and far between these days at Covers.  Thanks for the insight Andy.  

One thing not mentioned, is that elusive quarterbacks have given the Niners problems this year because it negates some of that great pass rush. Murray and Wilson specifically. Mahommes is pretty mobile as well, might be something to consider. 

Great write up and realize how even in the ones KC wins in, they arent by that much. KC 2 DL are not much better than the SF DL by much or at all. RT is also very very close as MCcglinchey has been great from what I have saw so there is an argument that SF sweeps both front lines. They then yes sweep the LB and almost sweep the secondary (Honeybadger is great but Tartt is really good as well.) And for special teams, I guess it goes to KC but Gould has never missed a postseason FG. 

Here is another interesting element. Could Shanahan be the better coach since he truly controls what Jimmy G does? Also he is the only coach I have ever seen that commits to the run 110% and never will get cute with the play calls...

And for your question of if Mahomes is good enough to overcome the position differences, I think no. He is better than Rodgers right now but if Rodgers was completely spooked than I doubt Mahomes will have enough. Especially if SF wears down the clock like they love too...

Nice work! Thanks for sharing

andarmac99

I am not much of a fundamental handicapper, so I really appreciate your time, effort, and insghts.

It really just depends how much the 49ers can disrupt Mahomes. He can put up over 30 points in just one half, extremely quickly. Also would help a lot to control a lot of clock by having heavy running success against KC D. Those 2 things are the key.

Also one way of looking at this game that really concerns me about the 49ers this game is that Patrick and the KC offense are like the Seahawks offense on steroids. He can do all those things Wilson can and has better weapons around him and they gave 49ers all kinds of problems both games. And am I not right that KC defense is at least as strong as Seattle's?

And that's the key. "Andy" has been around a very long time and won't feed you bullshit. He tells it like he sees it. It doesn't mean it's a winner but the info is always worth considering.

People who don't realize that even a sharp angle loses 30-40% of the time need not be here. Unfortunately those people will show up here if it loses and act like he was yanking their chain. 

Thanks, Andy and like Fade said, I'd like to see you post more often.