Posted:
#101
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Get ready for the football season with these simple systems
Posted:
#112
You posted: "NFL teams winning their last game by 28 or less are 0-19 ATS if they led by more than 17 after the first and at the halftime. "
How do you explain the following?
Ind @ Hou Week 1, 2011
1st Qtr: Hou 17 Ind 0
2nd Qtr: Hou 34 Ind 0
Final: Hou 34 Ind 7
Hou wins by 27 and wins ATS the following week.
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Posted:
#114
_SocraticMethod - WinAllSports posted "NFL teams winning their last game by 28 or less are 0-19 ATS if they led by more than 17 after the first and at the halftime. "
From the stats you then posted Houston were winning 17-0 at the end of the 1st quarter which is not "more than 17" as WinAllSports posted for his system.
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Posted:
#115
Quote Originally Posted by RobJames72:
_SocraticMethod - WinAllSports posted "NFL teams winning their last game by 28 or less are 0-19 ATS if they led by more than 17 after the first and at the halftime. "
From the stats you then posted Houston were winning 17-0 at the end of the 1st quarter which is not "more than 17" as WinAllSports posted for his system.
Exactly.
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Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by WinAllSports:
System of the day (Thursday) 26/7
System of the day (Thursday) 26/7
NFL teams in weeks 4 and later after scoring 0 points at home:
32-11 ATS
NCAA teams in weeks 3-10 on the road after scoring 0 pts at home:
82-52 ATS (28-9 ats last 37)
you also had a system with high win % of teams coming off being shutout, what about road teams being shutout??
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Posted:
#119
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:
Thanks for your systems. I too am looking for trends like these.
I find this one hard to believe. That's a very high % for such a vanilla criteria. And why would an upcoming bye affect a Team's play? Certainly coming off a bye is a big deal.
Can you post a link to a list of the actual games?
Thanks for your systems. I too am looking for trends like these.
this one is very much forreal and one many of us have followed. Books have really caught on of late though and jacked up the number on these teams and decreasing value
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Posted:
#121
Nothing personal, but every one of these trends are garbage, as already pointed out by one or two others.
Complete garbage. Total garbage.
They are what I refer to as, "after the fact" trends/stats. You can come up with all kinds of trends for games already played. It's actually quite easy.
Furthermore, I didn't see a single trend backed with actual data.
Some of these trends are just downright comical:
After week 5, NFL teams are 37-11 ATS after being shutout while rushing for at least 84 yards in that game.
Week 5? Why not Week 3 or 4? And 84 yards? Are you serious? Why 84? Why not 100? Why not 83?
I'll tell you why. Because Week 3 and Week 4 didn't "fit" into the system. Because 83 yards and less didn't "fit" into the system.
Road NFL favorites of 5 pts or less against non divisional opponents are 1-17 ATS after sweeping a divisional opponent and winning last game by 4-12 points.
Listen to what you are saying: ROAD NFL favorites (not just any favorite) of FIVE points or less (not 6 or 7 or anything else) against NON divisional opponents (they can be divisional foes) are 1-17 ATS after SWEEPING (they had to win both) a divisional opponent (had to be divisional) and WINNING (they can't have lost) last game by 4-12 (not 1, not 2, not 3, not 13 or more) points.
I could go on, but I think my point is made. These trends are garbage and no one has made any money off of them, or will make any money off of them. They were all created "after" the fact.
Finally, for every trend that you can come up with that favors Team A, for example, I can come up with a different trend that will favor Team B for the same game.
Complete garbage. Total garbage.
They are what I refer to as, "after the fact" trends/stats. You can come up with all kinds of trends for games already played. It's actually quite easy.
Furthermore, I didn't see a single trend backed with actual data.
Some of these trends are just downright comical:
After week 5, NFL teams are 37-11 ATS after being shutout while rushing for at least 84 yards in that game.
Week 5? Why not Week 3 or 4? And 84 yards? Are you serious? Why 84? Why not 100? Why not 83?
I'll tell you why. Because Week 3 and Week 4 didn't "fit" into the system. Because 83 yards and less didn't "fit" into the system.
Road NFL favorites of 5 pts or less against non divisional opponents are 1-17 ATS after sweeping a divisional opponent and winning last game by 4-12 points.
Listen to what you are saying: ROAD NFL favorites (not just any favorite) of FIVE points or less (not 6 or 7 or anything else) against NON divisional opponents (they can be divisional foes) are 1-17 ATS after SWEEPING (they had to win both) a divisional opponent (had to be divisional) and WINNING (they can't have lost) last game by 4-12 (not 1, not 2, not 3, not 13 or more) points.
I could go on, but I think my point is made. These trends are garbage and no one has made any money off of them, or will make any money off of them. They were all created "after" the fact.
Finally, for every trend that you can come up with that favors Team A, for example, I can come up with a different trend that will favor Team B for the same game.
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