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EAGLES @ SAINTS: I gave you a 30 unit winner last week so don't be a ne'er-do-well and miss this one

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Posted: #1
2019 Record: 1-1
Units: +24.86

Here's what I'm seeing with one:

I'm seeing Annie Wilkes in her bed watching Chuck Woolery on Love Connection with popcorn bits falling all over her bathrobe.

I'm seeing Robert person got as the contestant. (I'm serious. It's a REAL name.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JQdSHf23Zo

What?

I'll make it clear: She's sitting on her as* on a junk food bonanza while the sheriff closes in on her for kidnapping Paul Sheldon.

Just like the Saints...

Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara and 90% of this team haven't taken a snap (or a meaningful one if they got reps in Week 17) in TWENTY ONE DAYS.

You saw what the Cowboys did in Week 17. They went for it. They beat the Giants in a thriller and then they needed every ounce of that carryover win to help them beat the game Seahawks (a game I was so wary of I waited for ALL the points to come off the board and grabbed the ML only). 

Why? There are VERY thin margins in playoff football. Forget the blowouts and dominance. There is too much riding on these games for it to be lopsided making points EXTREMELY valuable. I couldn't even lay a MEAGER 2.5 vs. the Hawks and with good reason!

Well Scal, what about the Chiefs "blowout" today?

That was NOT a blowout. If not for a completely bogus roughing the kicker call on a last Chiefs punt, the ball goes back to Indy and KC would be in prevent D, letting Indy drain the clock and possibly score for a backdoor cover +4.5 of 20-24 (or even 19-24 as the line was as high as +5.5). Don't be fooled by that score. Highly misleading.

And even the Rams game covered by minuscule .5. With a debate from Clubdirt on the two pt conversion first instead of second possibly leading to a cover. But the real debate starts with why McVay went for it on 4th and 1 instead of going up two scores. I don't want to debate that (I know the answer) but really, in the playoffs?

If he just kicks it Dallas covers. Again VERY thin spread margins.

And before these two games, 14-1 Dog Winners ATS in the previous 15 games.

So points are king in the playoffs, at least the past two years. You can talk about regression but I'll take the post I made last week where I lined up every W for dogs since 2017 (14 of them) to ONE loss (Titans lose to Pats last year SU and ATS). And today if not for a questionable coach's call on the goal line and a roughing the kicker call, this could very well be 16-1 ATS Dogs in the last 17, or at least 15-2.

That's JUST talking about the points ALONE, for argumentation's sake, which are at +8 right now.

We haven't even gotten to the teams! And what about them...?


 
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Posted: #2
1. As stated above, the complacency/stale starters. You can choose to buy into it or not. This second point will sell it well.

2. If the starters were raring to go, why is Sean Peyton pulling a dog and pony show with the wads of cash + the trophy parade?:

Payton brought three armed guards, a stack of more than $200,000 in cash, the Vince Lombardi Trophy and a Super Bowl ring into the team meeting room Monday to give his players added motivation.

It's all a bit much for me when it comes to the best team in the league and SB favorite. Does anyone see Belichick doing this?

It corroborates the assertion in #1 that Payton is worried his team is complacent and/or not as sharp in practice due to the layoff.

#3. Revenge

"Ah this bullshi* again Scal! This is kiddy stuff!" Call it what you will.

The first fact is this: The 43-7 as* kicking was the Eagles low point this year and also their springboard to their current state.

The second fact is this:

On 4th and 6 at the Philly 37, up 38-7 I the 4th, Brees threw a bomb to Alvin Kamara making it 45-7. They then kicked a FG with 6 minutes left in the 4th to make it 48-7.

The Eagles players know this. They have stated publicly many times since that game they will remember that in future years when they play, and as fate would have it, they will play again...TOMORROW in the PLAYOFFS on no bigger possible stage.

As stated by Alshon Jeffrey: "This is who we wanted. Now we get them again. We remember what happened at the end of last game."

I get chills just typing that when I'm getting +8 to take that team.


 
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Posted: #3
#4. Nick Foles

BegginerBoy stressed to take the best coach and best QB in a thread last week. Many of you were adamant when you agreed.

Well, we get the better coach here. That's one. What about the other.

In all honesty in this spot, with this momentum and his 4-0 dog streak in the playoffs, this is the only QB I want behind my center for the Eagles right now. So we get one + at least .5 if the total of 2 is perfect. And situationally it's both the best QB (For THIS team!) and Coach.

I don't know how much clearer it has to get you to bet on this guy. FOLES is PRINTING money for you:

4-0 SU AND ATS in the Playoffs past two years.
14-4 ATS the past three years.

He comes in and it's magical. Period. 

Everything above is NOT considered in power ratings. It's not in spreadsheets and algorithms and simulations. If you run all those, the Saints come out on top which is WHY they are laying 8. 8 DOES NOT include the above. It can't. The above can't be quantified. And that is where we take advantage. That is situational capping in a nutshell.

And it's WHY, if you are shrewd, when you saw this line, like last week's line vs. the Bears at +6.5 you thought it was TOO HIGH. So if it's too high, TAKE IT. The Eagles CAN DEFINITELY win this game straight up so the points make it all the more attractive. It's perfect situationally: The Underdog role AGAIN; Foles AGAIN; A late season tear AGAIN; AND now you have the added revenge spot where the other team rubbed it in on the way out.

I guarantee the Eagles will NOT get blown out here. The Saints barely beat a severely depleted Steelers team in a game that ended on a last second fumble, in their last game that mattered. Then they started sipping Pina Coladas for 21 days thereafter.

I can't put the bet in for ya guys. I've said all I have to say. You don't get runs like this often. When you do, and especially when you get this much insurance, get paid for it.

EAGLES +8 over SAINTS

(ballin' nice call on the Pistons over the Clips!)

 
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Posted: #4
GO BIRDS!!!!!
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Posted: #5
So...how much are you slamming the Eagles +8.5 for Scal?

Line is moving up...might be +9.5 or +10 by game time...

We talking 5k?  10k?

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Posted: #6
Well no Smack. I’m not into 30 40 unit plays every week. That is farcical betting. Last week was a VERY special game due to the fact I watched every Seahawks game. I knew them like the back of my hand.

This will be a 4 unit wager.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Well no Smack. I’m not into 30 40 unit plays every week. That is farcical betting. Last week was a VERY special game due to the fact I watched every Seahawks game. I knew them like the back of my hand.

This will be a 4 unit wager.

Disappointed, that's not a true Eagle fan type of wager!
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Well no Smack. I’m not into 30 40 unit plays every week. That is farcical betting. Last week was a VERY special game due to the fact I watched every Seahawks game. I knew them like the back of my hand.

This will be a 4 unit wager.

Thanks for clarifying...your write up is very enthusiastic...always helps to get perspective when the actual money amount is know...at least for me it is...

However, your guarantee that the Eagles will not get blown out and your emphasis on the points mattering in the playoff games...seems to indicate you would have more confidence that just 4 units...

Would you add to the units if the line went to +10 before game time tomorrow?...Might be a bit optimistic but I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if it got there...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


Thanks for clarifying...your write up is very enthusiastic...always helps to get perspective when the actual money amount is know...at least for me it is...

However, your guarantee that the Eagles will not get blown out and your emphasis on the points mattering in the playoff games...seems to indicate you would have more confidence that just 4 units...

Would you add to the units if the line went to +10 before game time tomorrow?...Might be a bit optimistic but I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if it got there...


It opened at 10 or 10.5 in some places but it won't get back there...shame on us for getting on sooner!
Gambling isn't about money; it's about the thrill of the risk
 
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Posted: #10
Thanks for the reassurance on Eagles Scal, I'll be with you on this again. 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


Thanks for clarifying...your write up is very enthusiastic...always helps to get perspective when the actual money amount is know...at least for me it is...

However, your guarantee that the Eagles will not get blown out and your emphasis on the points mattering in the playoff games...seems to indicate you would have more confidence that just 4 units...

Would you add to the units if the line went to +10 before game time tomorrow?...Might be a bit optimistic but I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if it got there...


Quite possible, if favorites continue to pile on tomorrow's first game.    
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


Thanks for clarifying...your write up is very enthusiastic...always helps to get perspective when the actual money amount is know...at least for me it is...

However, your guarantee that the Eagles will not get blown out and your emphasis on the points mattering in the playoff games...seems to indicate you would have more confidence that just 4 units...

Would you add to the units if the line went to +10 before game time tomorrow?...Might be a bit optimistic but I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if it got there...


I’m actually waiting for some line movement as you noted. 8.5 would be nice to see in the morning and then I’d revisit.

Big, I’m not an eagles fan but I do live in Eagle country. Had 94.1 and 97.5 on all week and there’s a lot of confidence around here (and rightfully so!) and many would still get rid of Foles!

I just want to see Foles win it all. You absolutely cannot get rid of him not can you sit him next year in game 1. You can’t! I want to se what Philly would do in that spot. They’d have to pay him.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:


Thanks for clarifying...your write up is very enthusiastic...always helps to get perspective when the actual money amount is know...at least for me it is...

However, your guarantee that the Eagles will not get blown out and your emphasis on the points mattering in the playoff games...seems to indicate you would have more confidence that just 4 units...

Would you add to the units if the line went to +10 before game time tomorrow?...Might be a bit optimistic but I honestly wouldn't be too surprised if it got there...


The line isn't going anywhere near +10. Only one book has a +8.5 and that's Book Maker juiced at -111

You're either insane or new to sports betting to think +10 is possible
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

Thanks for the reassurance on Eagles Scal, I'll be with you on this again. 

And by the way, your money is what matters, not mine! My money doesn’t buy anyone anything!
 
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Posted: #15
Drinking the green cool aid I see Scal. I am a die hard birds fan. Philly born and raised on the play ground is where I spent most of my days. All kidding aside. This is a different Eagles team then last year , no doubt about that. This is also a different Eagles team that faced the Saints in week 10. Decimated secondary and a QB that hasn't been 100% since he came back  from a horrible  injury year prior that lead his team to the playoffs last year. i believe Carson is the Ginger Jesus and will rise from the dead once all his injuries are healed. Last meeting he threw 3 picks ...3  worst of his NFL career. Also Eagles we're coming off a huge disappointing OT loss to heated rival Cowboys week before on .BSHT tipped ball by Rasul Douglas that landed right in Amrari Cooper's hands for the walk off TD in OT. A game that Eagles came back and dominated a playoff team in the second half. If they can follow the script of the teams that held the saints in check last few weeks of regular season by blanketing Thomas then Brees will struggle on the passopa game because that's all he really has except his stud RB coming out of the flat and screens ..It's a pretty simple defensive game plan. Question is can Shawartz put some of these practice squad guys in the right positions to make plays and be disciplined. Avante Maddox needs to stop.thing he is Champ.Bailey and jumping routes before they are even finished. Geez man. Sullivan is a liability back there as well but I think the front Seven will create enoyge pressure to make DB uncomfortable in the pocket maybe cause a let turn over and Foles will do just enough pixie dust to make this game close. 

Birds +8 $500
Birds ML $300 ??? Don't know what this number is which tells me my offshore doesn't know what to make of the money line because it's off the board which leads me to believe that confiidenc is low on the favorite and they don't want to get bang up to bad by hungry dogs that run faster

E...A...G...L...E...S........EAGLES!!!?
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


I’m actually waiting for some line movement as you noted. 8.5 would be nice to see in the morning and then I’d revisit.

Big, I’m not an eagles fan but I do live in Eagle country. Had 94.1 and 97.5 on all week and there’s a lot of confidence around here (and rightfully so!) and many would still get rid of Foles!

I just want to see Foles win it all. You absolutely cannot get rid of him not can you sit him next year in game 1. You can’t! I want to se what Philly would do in that spot. They’d have to pay him.

I'm a big Eagles fan born a raised the problem with Foles is he can never be a starter, he cannot take the reins regardless if he wins tomorrow or another ring......but he is CLUTCH when it comes to these type of games and for this my scratch is on ST. NICK!!
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by bigjc:


I'm a big Eagles fan born a raised the problem with Foles is he can never be a starter, he cannot take the reins regardless if he wins tomorrow or another ring......but he is CLUTCH when it comes to these type of games and for this my scratch is on ST. NICK!!

Foles absolutely can be a starter, it's ridiculous to claim this. The only question is should he be a starter when Wentz is healthy?
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by LosDos:


The line isn't going anywhere near +10. Only one book has a +8.5 and that's Book Maker juiced at -111

You're either insane or new to sports betting to think +10 is possible

C'mon, my local has +8.5 -110 as of now. And MGM, Treasury Island, and Stratosphere at the Strip all have +8.5 -110. 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


Foles absolutely can be a starter, it's ridiculous to claim this. The only question is should he be a starter when Wentz is healthy?

Bro trust me....every time he has been a starter it's exactly that a "has been"!! He just has the ice in his veins for these pressure games, the win or get lost games. The mofo beat Brady but I just don't see him doing it on a week to week outing and that has already been seen.
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LosDos:


The line isn't going anywhere near +10. Only one book has a +8.5 and that's Book Maker juiced at -111

You're either insane or new to sports betting to think +10 is possible

Son, I was wagering on sporting events when you weren't even a twinkly in your daddy's eyes...YOU are the one who is the neophyte if you think that line can't get back to +10...+8.5 at 5 dimes right now laddie...

Now chill out with all that blathering and go play some video games to get your head right...

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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by bigjc:


Bro trust me....every time he has been a starter it's exactly that a "has been"!! He just has the ice in his veins for these pressure games, the win or get lost games. The mofo beat Brady but I just don't see him doing it on a week to week outing and that has already been seen.

Fair enough, I can't really remember back to when he was a starter. You like Eagles this game?
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:


Fair enough, I can't really remember back to when he was a starter. You like Eagles this game?


Love them but then again like last week I'm betting with my heart on this one bro and the Eagles, trust me, have been a team that continue to tear my heart to shreds..........GO BIRDS!
Gambling isn't about money; it's about the thrill of the risk
 
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Posted: #23
Think aboutt this line in first match at Saints was 8 to 9 depending on where you bet it week 10 and my birds got man paste shot all.over them. Line is around the same. Does the square better see that and say wow Saints boat raced the birds by 41 points and now I only have to lay less then double digits again with Saints at home...no brainier right ??? Or is it???.
 
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Posted: #24

GL Scal! Always love reading your posts. 

 

You gonna see some haters starting a post picking against you....confused

 
 
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Posted: #25
It's a tough one my man.......like every Eagle fan knows, if you bet on them...you lose.....if you bet against them.....you lose.....Drew Brees is a mother fukker to beat in the dome but I just can't go against my Birds in this one.....gambler or not!! Ride or die ST.NICK
Gambling isn't about money; it's about the thrill of the risk
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