Detroit / Green Bay Monday nighter.....

You can't just "be mad" or "be embarassed" and give an extra 5 points in the NFL.  Doesn't work like that.

GB might be a mess just like week 1.  Detroit can and will move the ball.  And the Lions might just win outright.

Detroit +12 (3 units)
Detroit ML +475 (1 unit)

GL all

GL Van.

I'm taking the Packers -3.5 1Q. Agree 12 points is a HUGE number 

@Spyder_Man

 Serious question...

How do you bet a 1st quarter when you don't know who is going to receive the ball?

I would assume receiving the ball first is a HUGE advantage.  

For instance, if you KNEW who would receive the ball I assume the lines would look something like this:

Packers receive:  Packers -4.5
Lions receive: Packers -2.5

@vanzack

 mhm its basically two gambles lol

any lean towards O/U

I think the ML is a bit out of reach but keeping inside 12 points is not.

Fans are laying down the narrative that GB was embarrassed and that is an auto play/cover next game out.  For me, I'm not so sure.  What lead to GB's disastrous performance last week can also apply tonight.  Why not?  

From my point of view, relationships within that team (i.e. Management & players) is fractured.  We know people in that organization from top down are walking on pins and needles around each other.  Being an angry QB after a bad game is one thing but Rodgers is an angry QB for the wrong reasons, i.e. he's distracted.

Last week's debacle wasn't about lack of skill or simply being 'off' for a game, it's about mentally be ready to perform.  The Pack may be saying all the right things to the press but to me, it's just fluff; they got some big time personnel problems going on behind the curtains.

To me, there's no reason to take GB right now.  They're a mess, but not like the Lions are a mess.  At least the Lions showed us something by trying hard until the final whistle last week.  Why can't the keep that momentum going tonight?  Flip side, GB did nothing last week.  I'm willing to take the points and let GB prove me wrong if thye do in fact lay a beating on DET tonight.

@vanzack

Home teams like to defer if they win the toss.  Bad, road teams will take the ball and try to strike first, maybe catching the favorite off guard with a quick score and taking the breath out of the crowd for a few minutes.

I would guess DET starts with the ball whichever way the toss goes IMHO.

Man, I hate to be opposite of you,  good luck friend. At least one of us will cash. 

@Battalion74

Nice write up. 

Very nice reasoning.

Did you see this tweet Van?

https://twitter.com/VSiNLive/status/1439968806571429892?s=19

Pretty f'n crazy he got all the ML sides right. If he hits Detroit ml dude wins 700 grand lol

GL 

@Digitalkarma

 I seen that also, crazy 

If this is true, his packers -3.5 bet is probably ill advised

I did not see that.

And it is CRAZY, for a couple of reasons.  First - the obvious - picking fifteen winners is absurd. 

Second - HIS ODDS SUCK.  He should be winning like 1.5m, but I am sure he will be happy.

And I am sure he is rounding up everyone he knows with money to make some kind of hedge.

In 4 of last 5 meetings at Lambeau Lions have won SU or lost by 7 or less

I sorta like the teeth kicking kneecap biting Lions tonight

GL

If you analyze his "ticket", Lions +400 just doesnt add up based on him betting all the heavy ML favs at -650...this is VSiN trying to make themselves a talking point today on the radio and online...i call BS but thats just my take...everyone will try to spin this open ticket on their shows and they will try to gain some speed and attention on it

Bit early to be saying last seasons mvp is done for after a bad week one. Goff isn’t the gritty qb Stafford was in Detroit
JG crumbles under pressure and Lafleur and Barry know this first hand
Good luck either way gentlemen

You might be right about this.  I was reading the comments and a few people seem to think it is fake.

@packersbackers

 I tend to agree... you see these "wild" parlays very often...suspect for sure 

I watch this show it’s called follow the money they do this show from the circa bookshop in Vegas, they also usually show the ticket when something like this is going on. I will watch the show in about half hour as I record it every day and see if I spot the ticket you talk about.

@vanzack

 I think it is fake, or at least the payout is exaggerated.  Assuming it is real, I would want to hedge considerably but if I was in the same situation I would not be anywhere near liquid enough to hedge properly.  This guy made a $25 parlay bet, he probably can't access a ton of money either.  I highly doubt if this is real that the guy can even access enough capital to hedge which would be a shame.

If he contacted BETMGM, they would offer him a buyout.  Certainly with the publicity they would get - I am sure a fair price based on current lines.

bol

with your bets

pal

Green Bay 1Q - 1 Unit

Green Bay 1st Half - 1 Unit 

Adams O87.5 yards - 1 Unit. 

GL all