Posted:
#51
parlays
and
teasers
will bust you
stay profitable pal
1
Buying Points in the NFL is a longeterm loser for losers....
Posted:
#52
Van, here is a perfect example of should you buy off key #
Sunday the Eagles fly into metlife, currently @ -7. Im in a jets fanbase area and all over the radio its been how bad Zac Wilson has been. BUT he has been good vs the line especially at home when he plays, quick look back to when Jets catch at least 7 on a home game with Zac and Jets are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS
all this vs Bills(Allen), Mia(No Tua), and this year KC(mahomie)
So the million dollar question is, do you buy off 7 to 7.5 knowing that eagles have the Phins on deck and maybe snoozing 
0
Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:
Vanzack is this thread about me suggesting people buy the hook oin the Niners from 3.5 to 3 just to be safe? I hate laying 3.5 or 7.5 on pretty much any game and its the only time I would consider doing this.
Vanzack is this thread about me suggesting people buy the hook oin the Niners from 3.5 to 3 just to be safe? I hate laying 3.5 or 7.5 on pretty much any game and its the only time I would consider doing this.
Its a fundamentals thing that's been appearing in bets posted, not just one game.
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by dcbets4lf:
@vanzack Love your posts VZ. I suggest anyone new here go search in the "Betting Strategies" forum for VZ's posts. Really good info for newbies
@vanzack Love your posts VZ. I suggest anyone new here go search in the "Betting Strategies" forum for VZ's posts. Really good info for newbies
Good for "newbies" 
lmao it is recommended reading for 98% of the degens in this forum 
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
0
Posted:
#61
@Bruins4Life
"This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game?
Can't you find a better spot?"
It's not naive in the least, it actually sums up w/o a lot of BS the whole point of the debate.
Vanzack touched on it in his 1st post---- "If you were only playing one hand of BJ in your life - or if it was a wager of a certain size to have an impact of utility"
Yea, unless you are "forced" to play this wager, (Only play offered or only chance to bet as a one time deal and you just have to walk away a "winner") or if the results will heavily affect your financial situation, why pay extra insurance?
I would further argue like you, why bother betting it at all? IMO, the only chance we have, is to spot weak or off lines, done by comparing to our own lines (however you come up w/them), and betting into these perceived mistakes by the books. These line differences have to be of a significant amount, or they simply are no plays and passed over. For myself, if I have to buy points, I've already made a mistake in my strategy.
0
Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
6 is definitely a good candidate to buy on to or off of. It is a recent change in the distribution of key numbers - and most books only make you pay 10 cents. What is the cheapest buy anyone has found off of or on to 3? I am seeing 25 cents.
6 is definitely a good candidate to buy on to or off of. It is a recent change in the distribution of key numbers - and most books only make you pay 10 cents. What is the cheapest buy anyone has found off of or on to 3? I am seeing 25 cents.
I seldom do, but always consider buying a half point as I can grab -115 often with my local. SHOCKED when I see some of these outfits taxing -130 or -125 around 3 and 7 when as you’ve pointed out long ago, many NFL games are being won by 2 pts especially since 2Pt conversion was an option.
Buying off 6 is always a consideration for me, however….Buying vig longterm won’t work. I also agree with whomever said be satisfied with a push…maybe snag that hook to get to +10, but only at -115. I would definitely consider but not necessarily go through with buying down to -1.5 or +2.
Since you pointed out some new key numbers a few years ago, that has saved my bacon more than a few times. Aloha vanzack!
Great Thread fellas. 
The impossible only takes longer….
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Posted:
#63
Quote Originally Posted by iceman67:
@Bruins4Life "This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game? Can't you find a better spot?" It's not naive in the least, it actually sums up w/o a lot of BS the whole point of the debate. Vanzack touched on it in his 1st post---- "If you were only playing one hand of BJ in your life - or if it was a wager of a certain size to have an impact of utility" Yea, unless you are "forced" to play this wager, (Only play offered or only chance to bet as a one time deal and you just have to walk away a "winner") or if the results will heavily affect your financial situation, why pay extra insurance? I would further argue like you, why bother betting it at all? IMO, the only chance we have, is to spot weak or off lines, done by comparing to our own lines (however you come up w/them), and betting into these perceived mistakes by the books. These line differences have to be of a significant amount, or they simply are no plays and passed over. For myself, if I have to buy points, I've already made a mistake in my strategy.
@Bruins4Life "This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game? Can't you find a better spot?" It's not naive in the least, it actually sums up w/o a lot of BS the whole point of the debate. Vanzack touched on it in his 1st post---- "If you were only playing one hand of BJ in your life - or if it was a wager of a certain size to have an impact of utility" Yea, unless you are "forced" to play this wager, (Only play offered or only chance to bet as a one time deal and you just have to walk away a "winner") or if the results will heavily affect your financial situation, why pay extra insurance? I would further argue like you, why bother betting it at all? IMO, the only chance we have, is to spot weak or off lines, done by comparing to our own lines (however you come up w/them), and betting into these perceived mistakes by the books. These line differences have to be of a significant amount, or they simply are no plays and passed over. For myself, if I have to buy points, I've already made a mistake in my strategy.
^ This
BTW, Love the Avatar..... George Gervin
@ Vanzack
Sweep the board this week
"Stop chasing the money and start chasing the passion."
0
Posted:
#67
i buy off the popular spreads 3 7 10 14 or just tease them up or down but sometimes vegas does it for you miami - 12.5 vs a bad team giants nope pumped up to -16.5 and everyone plus g ma got fucked in ass miami won by 15
happens every week in nfl injury reports 5 players out price goes up 4 points or more
0
Posted:
#68
Quote Originally Posted by gambleforfood:
Selling points is the way in mlb get plus money every bet
Selling points is the way in mlb get plus money every bet
@vanzack
This is a strategy I've been using lately in NFL. When I feel strongly about a game I will sell points back to get +money. For example the Raiders/Packers the other night. My wager was split between Raiders -1.5, -2,-2.5,-3, and -3.5 obviously getting some nice plus money on the 3 and 3.5. Is this a strategy that you would ever consider? I've seen you mention buying and selling points a few times. Recently you said that you "buy and sell all week". Is this what you are referring to? Can you elaborate on that statement?
Also always wanted to ask you how you feel about moneylines. Do you ever play them? For example, if your strongest play of the week was a dog +3, would you consider putting something on the ML in addition to your spread bet?
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Posted:
#71
Quote Originally Posted by Bruins4Life:
This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game? Can't you find a better spot?
This is probably naive, but....If you feel like you need to buy points, why are you playing that game? Can't you find a better spot?
Theoretically yes
But as we know even the best of the best cappers only win 48-58% of the time (some of the best bettors play a lot of + money plays and don't need to hit over 50%)
So even though u are super confident in your picks....which you should be....you still aren't right even 60% of the time
So having that 3rd option of a push isn't necessarily a bad thing as we saw in the example on page 1
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Posted:
#72
@EastsideBangers
But when you call games early as 
, ends up as a push... It happens. We have ALLLL done it to be fair, just most of us was surprised to be fair coming from you. At least it was a push, but definitely not a win with WAY too much time left in the NFL. Regardless, EB is a facking legend around here, and theres only a few more I can count the fingers on one hand. - Just blew my mind he counted a game "bagged" with that much opportunity left
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