Buying Points in the NFL is a longeterm loser for losers....

@vanzack

 fhew youze sniffle guy....

@szhcik

 shhhh sg bob...dems dragons no orioles..biscuits ...where...

I think buying points gives some a psychological edge and becomes part of their routine and then turns in to a habit that's hard to break.

You dont pay juice if you win..you only pay the juice if you lose..my advice would be.. do not make it a habit buying half points.. and
win more..

Play less.. chose wisely.. be consistent..

DISCIPLINE is the most difficult for the human mind.. because that is what stops you from chasing or getting greedy.. doing something you do not want to do in that moment..

plan to fail..  people.. if you plan to fail you make smarter decisions..

I think there is a threshold I am willing to pay.. the same goes when I wager ML.. it all depends on bankrolls or amount wagered.. juice adds up quicker the bigger the wager..but then again I guess it’s all relative..

I respect your style Van

Some people are on the side of you pay vig when you lose, and some people are on the side of you pay vig when you win.

It all depends on how you look at it.

Certainly, when you win, you arent getting paid 1-1.  They are withholding something from your payout - some see this as vig.

So in the case of paying MORE to place a bet (-120 or worse), you are making your payout LESS in proportion to your wager.  Call it vig, or call it what you want.

@ChOmP

 Well said. Patience is very key as well

Most lines move all over the place during the week. Even with totals you can usually wait out a better line with patience

So just because you see 5.5 doesn't mean that line shouldn't see 5.0 and/or 6.0 at sometime during the week

Do you parlay? What are your thoughts on buying points in parlays.. whether it’s 2 team or more? 

@dubz4dummyz

 @vanzack

 Great conversation. Especially the better A vs better B thing.

But do know, the books aren't dumb, they charge extra juice for buying a points around key #'s.

Buying the hook on a 3 is more expensive than a 5 let's say

Great thread…great discussion.  Well done 

Its fine if you are buying an occasional key number like from 3.5 to 3 or 7.5 to 7. Only time I would do it.

I buy half points only SOMETIMES on key numbers only.  2.5/3.5.  3.5/4.5.  6.5/7.5.  Just did with SF -4 this week at Cleveland.  Was -4.5.  Now -6.5 and will keep rising.

And just to be clear I'm not advising anyone that buying points is good or amazing or anything....im just presenting the numbers....

 my book is now .30 to buy any point...which is insane...it used to be .10 years ago...

And now to sell a point is only .05 (was .10 few years ago)...if u sell another point you get .10 for that point....so .15 in total for selling 2 points......I sometimes sell in nba especially with spreads in the 0-3 range but I barely play anything ATS in the NBA. Maybe a couple plays a year if I like a spot.

@Vanrush

 Ya I think my book did 0.5 points back then too...now just strictly full points...

Do you keep track of how often u get a push?

Vanzack is this thread about me suggesting people buy the hook oin the Niners from 3.5 to 3 just to be safe?

I hate laying 3.5 or 7.5 on pretty much any game and its the only time I would consider doing this.

Selling points is the way in mlb  get plus money every bet

@ChOmP

 No parlays for me anymore. For NFL teasers intrigue me more than anything but my book doesn't offer them....my thought there is NFL linesmakers are pretty sharp....so if u can tease way off their numbers thats not a terrible thing

Used to do correlated bets in mlb for a couple years...specifically K prop over and that team to win (buehler/dodgers 2018 was my best year for that)

Been debating it with NFL but its hard to correlate when the lines are so sharp. Like maybe lions ML and Montgomery over 80.5 rush yards last week if you didn't like the -9.0....but that's easy to say in hindsight

Just another obvious  point about flat numbers vs .5 numbers 

Flat number you have 3 outs. Win loss push

.5 you have 2 outs. Win loss

@dubz4dummyz

I have gotten 2 pushes in 5 weeks in the NFL.  SF -7.5 @ LA Week 2 (won 30-23 on the bullshit last play meaningless FG) and last week ATL -2.5 (beat Hou 21-19 last play FG).  I don't keep official stats for this unfortunately.  I have bought a half point 5/6 times this year.  I remember the two pushes.  One I was happy with (ATL) and the other was not happy with (SF).  I like the better odds and the perceived insurance.  It may or may not be the way to go percentagewise. Like Eastside said, people have different reasons for buying or not buying points.  I average 8-10 bets a week and buy a half point once or twice some or most weeks. Some people NEVER buy points.  It is what it is.........

@Vanrush

 So 2 pushes out of 6 times buying points? Thats wild. As I was thinking 0-8 pushes would be typical over 100 plays buying points.

@dubz4dummyz

With that being said, it doesn't happen often.  It's just a quirky thing that happened twice already.  I also don't keep stats on my record when I buy points.  More of a feel thing for me.  I am sure I have lost bets when buying half points.  The small amount of extra money I may lose is worth the better line for me.  There are many lines in football every week, where buying even half points makes the difference.  Guessing that I may push 3-7 times over 50-60 "buy the half point" bets or so.  Not often. 

Gambling over 30 years. I broke this habit 6 years ago and haven't bought points since. I used to buy points all the time and the bottom line is if you're buying points you will lose more money long term. Period. If you are one of the great cappers out there who make money every year then it's eating into your profits. For me personally - if I need to buy a half point to get to a key number I just stay away from that game. Period. This is another habit that took me a long time to break. If I'm thinking I need that half point for insurance then the line must be pretty spot on. There are so many other games available that I can feel more confident in another play then worrying about if I need to buy that half point for insurance. 

Look, we all know it, we all read it, we all say it, we all discuss it and the bottom line is it's all about discipline, money management, Research and picking your spots. Period.

I've lost a lot more money gambling than I won in my life but I will tell you these past 6 years and breaking habits along with the items I mentioned above, I was able to make a good amount of money back. Of course I got a lot of knowledge and super great info from some super great capers on this site. Not going to mention names but you know who you are.

All I can say is thank you for what you do and sharing your info. 

Best of luck to everyone for the rest of the season. 

And too, you are ignoring the the underlying reason for not buying points: the book would not offer the option to buy points if it were not in their long run advantage to do so.

2023 NFL games that you could have won or tied if you purchased 1/2 to 1pt.

Eagles 34 Vik 28  -5.5\-6

SF 30 Rams 23  -7.5

Saints 20 Caro 17  -3

Cin 19 Rams 16  -3

Den 31 Chi 28  -3

SD 24 Las 17  -6.5

ATL 21 Txn 19  -2.5

I buy points. Only  in certain situations

I bought it points in 2 games this week

Mia open at 13.5 I bought the half I bet 50. Cost me 60

Niners open - 4.5 I bought the half - 4 cost 120 to win 100

Buying points for me has been profitable 

Senor Vanzack, I love buying points!  2 TEAM ML  turning - into + has worked well for me over the years