Buying Points in the NFL is a longeterm loser for losers....

Buying points consistently over time in the NFL is a very bad idea.  There is no math to turn this around.  But....  There are certain times when it COULD make sense.  

A big thing I have been concentrating on over the past decade or so is trying to isolate games that have a high probability of landing outside of one score of the spread.  Some might know this as standard deviation - but to keep it simple - the farther away from the spread the more I want to be involved in that game.  This is a big part of what I do week in and week out.

If someone said they do this also - but on games that have the exact opposite - a high probability of landing CLOSE to the spread - then it might make sense to buy points.

Another less likely - but possible scenario - is that books havent caught up with recent scoring changes that create different key numbers.  For instance, 6 and 2.  These over the past few years have become much more frequent - and it is possible that the books in certain cases should be charging more to buy on or off of those numbers.

One of my favorite reasons for buying points is "I win so often that it doesnt matter".  The point is you should be winning more.  And winners pay vig.  If you are risking $360 to win $300, instead of $330 to win $300, if you win that $360 wager you should have actually won $327, not $300.  This adds up over time.

It is the same proposition as paying for insurance in Blackjack. The dealer gets an A, and you have a 2-1 decision to make on him having a ten underneath.  The odds are 2.25 to 1, but you are getting paid 2-1.  If you were only playing one hand of BJ in your life - or if it was a wager of a certain size to have an impact of utility - you might consider this insurance.  But if you plan on playing BJ for a while - or even your lifetime - it is incredibly -EV.

Dont be fooled with anecdotal stories of people who won a wager because they bought a points.  It is a longterm loser, and anyone who purports doing it as a strategy indiscriminately without strategic reasoning is someone you should run from and run fast.  Short term success over a short sample size will always crumble.

Is your goal to win as many bets as you can - or is it to be profitable?  You should be very comfortable losing more bets to be more profitable.  Read that again - and understand it.  The only thing that matters is profit.  Winning more bets is for losers.

GL all

I don’t ever buy points 

And again, I don’t judge people who do. Everyone has to live with his own choices in life.

I feel confident enough in my process to just ride with my selections and let the chips fall where they may

6-5 BJ payout now at a lot of Vegas casinos...  Don't they want customers to play?

They know they will still play.

I saw something that reducing to 6-5 provided zero reduction in playing time.

@vanzack

 You are too hyper-focused on the exact topic of your choice: buying points is bad.....step back and look at a much broader picture

Yes buying points costs a premium we all know that. But there is a potential positive to buying to a flat number....and that is called a push.... These can be glorious over a lifetime of betting

Oh ya copy and paste ur % of times games end on 1,2,3,4,5,6,7.....

I honestly do not think that the casual Black jack player notices or even understands the difference between 3-2 and 6-5 pay outs 

Bettor 

A bets 100 -110 lines at +5.5 to win $100 and goes 55-45 

55x100 = 5500

45×110 = -4950

= $550 profit

Bettor B bets 100 -120 lines to win $100 at +6.0 and goes 55-41-4

55×100= 5500

41×120=  -4920

= $580 profit

Bettor B needs at least 4 pushes per 100 plays to be more profitable than Bettor A in the long run. 

This certainly seems attainable specifically to NFL betting and key numbers.

Obviously different sets of 100 plays you select would yield different results. I could see 0 pushes being obtainable and  potentially up to 6-8 pushes over 100 plays if u bought to a key, flat number on all 100 plays

What numbers do you propose buying or buying off of, and when?

EDIT... I see your answer in post 6.  Will read and digest.

@vanzack

 See example...key numbers only...and most of the time to a flat number 

Edit- yessir easy numbers to crunch ....now can u get 4 pushes per 100 plays.....debatable

But when u post ur numbers on what % the game ends on the picture will get much clearer

Got it.

Very good post.

I would say yours falls under "specific strategy" as to when to buy points.  I am going to put some thought in to what you suggest, and do some analysis.  Stay tuned.

But it does not advocate blindly buying points.  But I think we might be on to something...

In your example....  Things get significantly worse as you dip below 55% winners.  Just pointing out the obvious.

@vanzack

 And of course you would keep track of each number you are buying  to a flat number separately...

Over 100 times of buying from +5.5 to +6.0 do you achieve the required 4 pushes

Over 100 times of buying from +2.5 to +3.0 do you achieve the required 4 pushes

Over 100 times of buying from -3.5 to -3.0 do you achieve the required 4 pushes

Well that's how I would track it personally if I was...as we know 3 is a bit more common than 6 if I'm not mistaken by that list u always post

@vanzack

 Yes i just wanted to keep an even record....we are assuming this is a "successful" capper doing this

55% quite a high bar to set for sure

This is the 2022 season.  Sorry for formatting.  That is covers.

M.O.V.: # of Times: % of all results
3 42 16.5%
6 20 7.8%
7 19 7.5%
10 15 5.9%
8 15 5.9%
4 15 5.9%
1 15 5.9%
14 12 4.7%
5 10 3.9%
2 10 3.9%
17 7 2.7%
13 7 2.7%
9 7 2.7%
16 6 2.4%
28 5 2.0%
21 5 2.0%
15 5 2.0%
12 5 2.0%
23 4 1.6%
22 4 1.6%
18 4 1.6%
11 4 1.6%
24 3 1.2%
37 2 0.8%
35 2 0.8%
26 2 0.8%
20 2 0.8%
19 2 0.8%
0 2 0.8%
34 1 0.4%
31 1 0.4%
29 1 0.4%
25 1 0.4%

6 is definitely a good candidate to buy on to or off of.

It is a recent change in the distribution of key numbers - and most books only make you pay 10 cents.

What is the cheapest buy anyone has found off of or on to 3?  I am seeing 25 cents.

@vanzack

definitely and situational thing.  And in a sense you just have to get "lucky" that 4 of your 100 plays actually push....but the potential is 100% there....

Like I say if you were buying to key flat numbers, anywhere from 0-8 pushes seems plausible over 100 NFL ATS wagers

@vanzack

 My book used to be .10 but jacked it 2 years ago so I don't fuck with it anymore

One thing you would have to analyze....

Key number of 6 was 7.8% last season.  What was the spread when it landed on 6 these 7.8% of the time?  If for some reason, it was never a line of 5.5, then it would definitely indicate that buying to 6 was a bad idea.  It gets complicated quickly.

I would guess that on a closing line of -5.5 it landed on 6 infrequently enough to make buying a bad idea.  I will try to figure this out.

@vanzack

 I'll let u fuck with the numbers....if both guys go 53% I'm guessing bettor B needs to get at least 5 or 6 pushes to be even with bettor A

@vanzack

 Yes. But just to zoom out.

In theory over your 100 +6.0 bets around 6-8 of them should push based on just the fact that 6.8% of all games landed on 6 (for say 10 years instead of just 2022...was hoping you had the one from 2014 or whenever they moved the XP back)

Now if that actually plays out per season on +5.5 lines that you bought to 6....thats kinda the luck part over 100 plays and do u actually get the 4 pushes or not

Another reason I said to track the +5.5 to +6 serperate from all others. It could take 5-20 years to bet 100 +5.5 lines. Like how many +5.5 lines have u bet so far this season?

@vanzack

Exactly ...hard to say how many 5.5 lines we get a season...and if luck would have it and those games actually did end on 6

3 would be the best number to do this on obviously if the price is right

@vanzack

 the bscuits win tonight right van....cannae get swept.....me an d bob chasing dragons in vietame..come one burds gonna fly...odds against...7/7 i  i cousd get it..good be right..cant inplay..so..

@Battalion74

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@dubz4dummyz

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@vanzack

 fuckin rounders...betting its welll..inplay but 7/4 orioles is a gob bet ribnght van....