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Bounceback System

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Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by jarhead60:

I checked on the 1 unit bets  (bet on the team if it lost last week by 10 points or more ATS---I did not exclude games where both teams were 1 unit bets so I under state the results a very little bit

weeks 2 thru and including 16, no week 17 and no playoffs

1996 thru 2009

raw numbers
won 697
lost 659
51.4% win rate


sorry to break the bubble

didn't check the 2 or 3 unit bets


Some of those could be cancelled out because of a team coming of a win and a buy.  Maybe it only works when the circumstances are only without buy teams. 

I did notice that there more wins from teams off buys weather they won or not, which is not all that earthshocking to hear, but the "raw" data is only useful similar to an encyclopedia.  You've got to read about the circumstances before comparing and contrasting anything, sorry to break your bubble.




 
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Posted: #102
Thursday Night Play

1U:
pit -14.5 W

Sunday Plays

2U:
den +2.5 (only betting 1 unit though, play cancels with hou 1U play)
sea +6.5

3U:
min +14.5

YTD:
1U: 43-29  (59.7%)
2U: 22-9    (71.0%)
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by tafter12:

If you're going straight bouncebacks, Loss ATS vs Win ATS, here they are:

Pitt - 14.5 W

Mia - 3.5 L

Jac - 7 L

N E - 7.5 W

NYG + 3 L

 

I'm only taking the following 3, however.  I'll be uploading a video to show why soon. 

 

JAX, MIA, NYG - you picked the 3 losing games.



A losing week. What a tough break following 5+ winning or even weeks, according to you at least. Maybe you should have back-tested the entire season so far instead of only the last 5 trailing weeks.

 
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Posted: #104
Thursday Night Play

1U:
pit -14.5 W

Sunday Plays

2U:
den +2.5 W on 2U play and L on 1U play (Hou -), net +1U
sea +6.5 L

3U:
min +14.5

YTD:
1U: 43-30
2U: 23-10
 
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Posted: #105
=== Final Results Tally ===

Thursday Night Play

1U:
pit -14.5 W

Sunday Plays

2U:
den +2.5 W on 2U play and L on 1U play (Hou -), net +1U
sea +6.5 L

3U:
min +14.5 W (on a 1U and a 2U bet)

Week
1U: 2-1
2U: 2-1

YTD:
1U: 44-30
2U: 24-10
 
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Posted: #106
Whats your bets for this weekend??
 
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Posted: #107
Upcoming Sunday System Plays

The last week gets kind of nutty with different levels of team motivation, but I think I only have a problem with 2 of the system's plays .... maybe. Opinions are welcome here. Put the 2 questionable plays to the iron, guys.

1U:
mia +
buf +
ten +
sdc -
nyg -
phi -/+ ? (not confident w phi - they might rest players - opinions anyone?)
sea +

2U:
sff -
hou + (not confident w hou - jax still in playoff hunt - opinions anyone?)
 
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Posted: #108
Let's restate this - I have questions about 3 of the system plays.

Upcoming Sunday System Plays

1U:
mia +
buf +
ten + (not confident w ten - ind needs the win - opinions anyone?)
sdc -
nyg -
phi -/+ ? (not confident w phi - they might rest players - opinions anyone?)
sea +

2U:
sff -
hou + (not confident w hou - jax still in playoff hunt - opinions anyone?)



 
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Posted: #109

Tenn, Jags, Hous are all sick of Indy always going to the play offs.  On any given Sunday any of the four playing each other would be a fight to the end, but this week isn't any given Sunday.  It just so happens that if Tenn were to pull a W and Hous were to play a little soft late in the game we could send someone BESIDES Indy this year.... 

Tenn will try against Indy, I am not sure how much faith I have in them to Win but they have been known to pull some serious nut job plays off...

Houston will pad their play toward the Jags just to spite Indy. 

 

 
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Posted: #110

Oh, and Tuttle I have really enjoyed following your thread here!  Please keep it up and the BOL to ya!

 
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Posted: #111
Thanks for the kind words buzkill

Hou will tank it so Jax can have a shot at sliding in? Hmmm, that's very tough to believe. The problem with going against that comment is that Hou's defense is so bad, who knows if they're actually trying to get off the field or not?

This Sunday, Hou with Andre Johnson banged up and a bad defense vs. Jax without Garrard or MJD. I'm actually leaning Jax in this spot, but I'm assuming Jax's potential reward for winning the game is part of the equation.

Which is why I'm questioning the Hou + system play.
 
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Posted: #112

I think your gut is telling you the same as mine. 

Jags

Either way, awesome job on your part!

 
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Posted: #113
SFF??? 49ers??
 
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Posted: #114
49ers. Bucs.
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by SlamminSam212:

SFF??? 49ers??


Yes. Sff is the 49ers.

I've thought a little more about the 3 picks I've questioned. The bottom line is that the jax/hou and ten/ind games are two games in which we have a "life vs. pride" matchup. Just because the system picked the pride teams doesn't mean that it's a foregone conclusion that the system will lose. Ten is getting about 10 pts. It's hard to say a bet of Ten +10 will definitely lose. Jax/Hou is a more scary, because Hou is only getting about 3 points. Still, is it possible Jax will lose w/o MJD or Garrard? Yes, it's absolutely possible.

So, after thinking about it, I'm a little more comfortable going with the system's picks of Hou +pts and Ten +pts. The only pick left that I question is Phi. I just think Dal is the right pick right now, with Phi needing the rest.
 
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Posted: #116

Tuttleberry .  Love your work.

 

-888

 
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Posted: #117
888 

Let's lock in the plays for which we have lines:

Upcoming Sunday System Plays

1U:
mia +4.5
buf +1.5
ten +9.5
sdc -3.5
nyg -3.5
phi ??? (not locked yet)
sea +2.5

2U:
sff -5.5
hou +2.5

These picks are being made by a mechanical system. I am not making the picks myself.
 
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Posted: #118
Upcoming Sunday System Plays

1U:
mia +4.5
buf +1.5
ten +9.5
sdc -3.5
nyg -3.5
phi -2.5
sea +2.5

2U:
sff -5.5
hou +2.5 (locked in before Garrard announcement was made)

These picks are being made by a mechanical system. I am not making the picks myself.

YTD:
1U: 44-30
2U: 24-10
 
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Posted: #119
 
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Posted: #120
Results:

1U:
mia +4.5 L
buf +1.5 L
ten +9.5 W
sdc -3.5 W
nyg -3.5 L
phi -2.5 L
sea +2.5 (still have this play pending)

2U:
sff -5.5 W
hou +2.5 W

Week:
1U: 2-4
2U: 2-0

YTD:
1U: 46-34
2U: 26-10
 
 
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Posted: #121
Results:

1U:
mia +4.5 L
buf +1.5 L
ten +9.5 W
sdc -3.5 W
nyg -3.5 L
phi -2.5 L
sea +2.5 W

2U:
sff -5.5 W
hou +2.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-4
2U: 2-0

YTD:
1U: 47-34 (58.0%)
2U: 26-10 (72.2%)

Enjoy the playoffs everyone.
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