Bounceback System

Found 2 games earlier in the season where 1U teams were facing each other as opponents. So, that means we can take away 2 1U wins and 2 1U losses, as we would not have played those games at the time.

That means, YTD we are:
1U: 27-18
2U: 15-4

This week there are 4 1U teams that are facing each other in 2 games. So, 4 of our picks are knocked off the board (ten,was,kcc,ari). The remaining picks are:

1U:
min +3.5 (buy .5 pt if have to)
pit -7.5
nyg +3.5

2U:
car +10.5

Good luck to all.

1U:
min +3.5 L
pit -7.5 W
nyg +3.5 L

2U:
car +10.5 L

Today: 1U: 1-2 2U: 0-1
YTD: 1U: 28-20 2U: 15-5

YTD -- 1U: 28-20 -- 2U: 15-5

Week 12 Board ... the one Thanksgiving play is cin:

1U:
cin +8.5
car +10.5
ari +0.5

2U:
nyg -7.5

3U (1U & 2U):
min +2.5
ten +0.5 ?

The ari game is actually a 1U (sff) vs. a 2U (ari), so ari gets bumped from a 2U to a 1U play just by mathematical cancellation, and of course, sff becomes a no-play.

Good luck everyone and Happy Thanksgiving.

Okay let's tally the results:

1U:
cin +8.5 L
car +10.5 W
ari +0.5 --- W on 1U and L on 2U --- net of -1 U

2U:
nyg -7.5 L

3U (1U & 2U):
min +2.5 W on 2 bets
ten +0.5 ? L on 2 bets

So, weekly results are --- 1U: 3-2 --- 2U: 1-3

YTD --- 1U: 31-22 --- 2U: 16-8

Sunday's Plays:

1U:
det +4.5
sea -5.5
ind -5.5
ari +3.5

2U:
cin +6.5
den +9.5

3U (1U & 2U - 2 bets combined):
ten -3.5
oak +12.5

Results:

1U:
det +4.5 W
sea -5.5 W
ind -5.5 L
ari +3.5 L

2U:
cin +6.5 W
den +9.5 W

3U (1U & 2U - 2 bets combined):
ten -3.5 L
oak +12.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-3
2U: 3-1

YTD:
1U:  34-25
2U: 19-9

Forgot to execute a clause in the system last week.

ten -3.5, which was a loss, should have only been a 2U bet, not a 3U bet. So, instead of going 3-3 on 1U bets, we should have gone 3-2.

So our revised YTD record is:
1U: 34-24 (1 loss taken away)
2U: 19-9

Thursday night play is a 2U bet:
ind -3.5

Good luck everyone.

GL Fonzi!   

Well, this is going to seem kind of silly, but I'm going to do a 180 and remove the clause from the system that made us lessen the exposure to the Week 13 Tennessee loss.

We're going to go with the theory that the more a team loses ATS, the more attractive a play they become. So, we are going to absorb that original ten -3.5 loss, and then play them again vs. Indy, which means that our Indy -3.5 2U loss is wiped out, and we will also get a ten +3.5 win for 1U on top of that.

Soooo .....  we will change our 1U record from 34-24 to 34-25.
Then, we will convert our ind -3.5 2U play last night to a ten +3.5 1U play, which is a win. Don't ask why this happens. It just does.

Now,  our YTD record will be:
1U: 35-25
2U: 19-9

I'll follow up tomorrow with Sunday's plays.

Sunday plays:

1U:
was +1.5
buf pk
car +7.5
sdc -6.5
nyj -5.5

2U:
ari +4.5

Like Car and Az

 Good stuff

Thx for the support, harley and k4.

Let's tally the results

1U:
was +1.5 W
buf pk W
car +7.5 L
sdc -6.5 W
nyj -5.5 L

2U:
ari +4.5 W

Week:
1U: 3-2
2U: 1-0

YTD:
1U: 38-27
2U: 20-9

Found a 1U winning scenario in week 1 that I previously missed. We can add one win to the 1U record.

The scenario was SD losing to KC in Week 1, then coming back in week 2 and blowing out Jax.

So, YTD:
1U: 39-27
2U: 20-9

Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +???

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5

Good luck to all.

Been reading your thread, curious how the Jets could have been a play against the Phins. The Phins lost the prior week to the Browns straight up - they were favored by 3.

A 3 U play this week? I like it.

rob3996: The setup for the system is a team must lose by more 10 or more vs. the spread. The Jets were a setup after losing 45-3, and the Phins were not a setup as they lost by less than 10 vs. the spread.

Byharley: a 3U play happens if a team loses by 10 or more vs. the spread twice in a row.

The 3U record YTD is a combo of the 1U and 2U record. I honestly don't know what it is, but I'm confident the win pct is at least 60% and probably higher than that.

Thanks for the interest.

Sunday's plays:

1U:
kcc pk
den +6.5
sea +6.5
gbp +13.5   updated

2U:
nyj +5.5

3U:
car -2.5

Love Sea and Den, hard to bet on maybe the worst NFL game of the year between Car and Az BOL 

Thanks much for the explanation - think your system is something that makes alot of sense. I was doing something similar awhile back - one other thing that I was taking into consideration is turnover margins for the previous game. If a team was a bouncback team PLUS their turnover margin was equal to or preferably worse than the team they were playing - it qualified as a play.

Only thing im not 100% clear on is your 2U criteria? I saw you mention bye week, so its for teams coming off byes. What is the other piece im missing?

Thanks Buddy

 

 

Curious is anyone ever tried something similar to this for NCAAF - maybe just TOP 25 Teams.

 

 

Rob, the 2U plays are just chases of 1U losses.

I'll post later with the tallies. Hit the 2U and 3U (1U + 2U) plays. 2U record YTD is now 22-9. 

Tallying the results:

1U:
kcc pk W
den +6.5 L
sea +6.5 L
gbp +13.5 W

2U:
nyj +5.5 W

3U:
car -2.5 W (on a 1U and a 2U bet)

Week:
1U: 3-2
2U: 2-0

YTD:
1U: 42-29
2U: 22-9

I like your system can you give me another example?? like