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Thoughts on so called "value plays"

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Posted: #51
the warriors are just missing curry right? and is he worth more than 2 points? i love it when people say "too many points for the other team to cover". 

san antonio -12 

although the line seems about right, the thunder have been on a tear lately. but also the mavs. however there is just too much thunder love, and the line moving in their favor. we go the other way.

dallas +4.5 


 
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Posted: #52
san antonio -12 

dallas +4.5 

ytd 10-4


 
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Posted: #53
i see the love for houston, what a way to end the losing streak against a banged up minnesota team. yet line opened at houston -3.5. im not sure if this minny team could even put a starting 5 on the floor, but you know what that means. 

minnesota +4.5 
 
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Posted: #54
PARE' you and I play exactly the same way lol...
 
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Posted: #55

I like your style and I play similarily but I would be careful on the HOU @ MINNY game.  If Love and Peckovic dont play that will create too many miss matches for Minn to overcome.

Hou does need to end the slide as well.  With that being said, be careful with this theory.  I dont know if you saw the 4 game day that included all HEAVY publice favorites hitting.  NYK at DET (london),  LAC @ Minn, MIN @ Pho, MIA @ LAL.........all public favorites hit.

 

I GOT CRUSHED!  I like using this sytem much more in NFL.  NBA is such a crap shoot any so many variables.  I do see value in NO and ATL tonight.

 

 
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Posted: #56
sorry meant Mil @ Pho
 
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Posted: #57
noted. i had the same thought exactly when lac opened similarly the other night at about 4 pt favorites and blew the hell out of minny that night. however people might forget the fact that this is houston's 4th game in 5 nights.

i also like atl for tonight, im not yet so sure if i can pull the trigger as they are playing the spurs. im liking nola as well but -5 is a lot to lay for them. BOL
 
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Posted: #58
gamblor24, i got crushed that day too. but that was 1 day. it happens... made up for it big last night with mavs full game and mavs 2nd half larger than life.
 
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Posted: #59
i read that the twolves only have 7 bodies available for shoot around. people watched them lose on national tv against the clippers and now they have 2 less players than that game. the public is CHASING the rockets. with that said im going to take a shot at the TWOLVES FU_CK IT
 
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Posted: #60
BOL
 
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Posted: #61
@7rings

exactly my thoughts, looks like the line opened at 3.5 to lure in bettors for the CHASE. if this opened at -5 or -6 then i wouldve taken houston. i just love playing small home dogs team. BOL

 
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Posted: #62
i didnt get that quite right...

i just love playing teams that are small dogs at home. BOL
 
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Posted: #63
adding a play

chicago bulls +2 
 
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Posted: #64
Touche my man, touche..........................houston looks souless!  Good pick......you like Washington tonight?  4 games in 5 nights?
 
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Posted: #65

TsikenBreast I am amazed how you pick the one value play of the three that hit.  Minny, ATL and NO......good work.

 

You did what I never could.  I could see the value in all but play them all.  You considered the best values of all value plays and hit.  Good work!  Minn at home hou coming in 4 games in 5 nights, public hammering Houston good work.

 

Same exact scenario for ATL didnt hit and NO but they werent a home dog as you said..... 

 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:

i didnt get that quite right...

i just love playing teams that are small dogs at home. BOL


Hey Bro you get my respect dude.  I just lost to minnesota tonight and toronto at home the other night.. Both small dogs at home. I took the bulls-4.5 and houston-4.5 both on the road and both did'nt cover. Also OKC on the road in portland OKC-4.5.  Ofcourse OKC didnt cover. Do you apply this same logic to college basketball teams that are small underdogs at home? Or just NBA. Keep up the great work, I hammered houston with the rest of the suckers bro.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by 7RINGS:

i read that the twolves only have 7 bodies available for shoot around. people watched them lose on national tv against the clippers and now they have 2 less players than that game. the public is CHASING the rockets. with that said im going to take a shot at the TWOLVES FU_CK IT


Dude i ate that schit up and instead of going the other way i rolled with the rockets.  Next time I read a team is banged up injured might not play this or that guy I'm taking um without hesitation like you did on this game dude. Same exact crap with the clippers.  You find out cp3 is not playing and then clippers are blowing them out.  ESPN had this round the clock coverage on Louisvlille QB teddy bridgewater's injuries.  Went as far as to say he won't be playing....what happens........they start the backup quarterback to only let bridgewater finish the game.  Louisville wins.  Good work 7rings. That road underdog and under is coming true  in the clips vs wiz game.
 
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Posted: #68
timberwolves 

bulls (win like a man,lose like a man. had some crazy line movement before gametime, lost by a friggin point.)

@miami, gamblor

i do believe homecourt in the nba means A LOT. im not saying though that vegas has a hint on the lines and would make you wanna choose on a "sucker side". however, whenever you see a more superior team on paper(e.g. houston opening at 3.5 faves), it would really be of big value to the bettor as they are only laying a small line. hence the thread title"value play". little do they know that teams play better at home than on the road. BOL 

with that said, im liking denver a lot tomorrow. heck im locking it in now.

DENVER ML 
 
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Posted: #69
love the chicken nuggs tmrow +1
 
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Posted: #70
Denver nuggets+1 it is gentlemen. Especailly since OKC has the clipps coming up on tuesday. 
 
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Posted: #71
i think that under is a better play. the line says so 
 
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Posted: #72
chicken nuggets!
 
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Posted: #73
Bullseye, they call offensive foul on OKC when they have a chance to take the lead. Which was bullshit but who cares home dog wins. Excellent call boys.  I'm a believer. 
 
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Posted: #74
nuggets 

now at 12-5

home dogs tonight went 3-1 with orlando the lone loser.(that was expected though)

@miami
denver up 11 midway in the 4th but the game went to ot. a little scare there but we will take any win. 





 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by TsikenBreast:

nuggets 

now at 12-5

home dogs tonight went 3-1 with orlando the lone loser.(that was expected though)

@miami
denver up 11 midway in the 4th but the game went to ot. a little scare there but we will take any win. 






Amen brother.
that offensive foul on OKC really came in handy. LOL.  Great pick buddy
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