i bet very sparingly on the NBA during the regular season... too hard to predict who will come to play on a given night... but now the playoffs are here, so it's time to get busy!
1st Round
Series bets
CELTICS (-175) vs Heat
MAVS (-165) vs Spurs
Game 1 bets
small plays: Clev 1Q (-3.5), Clev 1H (-6), Clev (-11)
ML parlay: Den / Dall (+120)
Futures
MAGIC (+500) to win the NBA championship
this is a value bet... i always bet on someone to win it all, but this is based on their road... they are a sure thing to make the EC finals... when it is all said and done, i think the Clev - Orlando series will decide who has a ring this year, so i'll take a shot at 6:1...
1st Round
Series bets
CELTICS (-175) vs Heat
MAVS (-165) vs Spurs
Game 1 bets
small plays: 
Clev 1Q (-3.5), Clev 1H (-6), Clev (-11), 
Pho 1Q (-2.5), Pho 1H (-5), Pho (-9)
ML parlay: Den / Dall (+120)
Sides: 3-3
ML parlay: 1-0
don't be surprised if i don't bet on Phoenix again these playoffs...
Game 2 bets
small plays: Cavs 1H (-6.5), Cavs (-10.5), Cle/Chi (UN 191.5), Hawks (-7.5), Bos/Mia (OV 179), Thunder (+6.5)
i like Boston to take apart Miami in game 2, but am riding out my series bet on that game, as well as the Dallas series...
best play so far of these playoffs comes up tomorrow night with the Thunder against the Lakers... i have watched, followed and bet the Thunder from day 1 this season, and have a good feel for how they play... they have been great bouncing back from losses (both SU and ATS) this year, and i think they got rid of some jitters in game 1...
be warned: this game will go 1 of 2 ways... either, the Thunder will rise to the occasion and give the Lakers everything they can handle, in which case there is at least a 50% chance they win, and about a 90% chance they cover... OR... they will play tight, get behind, and start pressing things like a young team can do...
i don't think the latter will happen, because they know they have nothing to lose, and this game 2 is a chance to steal one, so a young team will usually have the right mentality for this game... but IF they do get routed, never fear... the REAL money-maker will be game 3 in OKC... first time playoff game for the fans, and it will play into the fact that the Thunder have not played 3 straight bad games except for 1 time this year... i would expect a line between +1 and -1, and a straight up win for the Thunder...
if i lose the play tomorrow night, i will almost certainly have a full play on OKC in game 3...
GR... Thunder series bet was a small bet... but i still think there is a high probability this series will be tied after 4 game, meaning i just need them to take 2 of 3... or i might buy back out of the bet after 4, with the series price dramatically reduced, to guarantee i can't lose money...
and as for calling them the World Champions (remember i bet them before game 1 of the playoffs to win it all last year)... we won't be able to call them that for much longer... i don't think this team has what it takes to beat Dallas or Denver in a 7 game series, and i think they would have to do both to get back to the finals...
in fact, the Thunder series bet is a hedge... i want the Lakers to win that series... because then i can REALLY make some money fading them against as a favorite against a superior opponent...
Established in 1995,
Great Post! Very insightful.
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