Posted:
#176
BOL tonight
NBA Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
Posted:
#178
Happy..keep up the good work...i've been following you over the last couple weeks and respect your style.
That said, i'm a bit perplexed by the Thunder pick tonight...YES, I agree I think that is the better team...BUT, they played late on the west coast last night and have to travel to play at Chicago at 5pm PST tonight....this is the 3rd game now that Bulls have boozer back and I just see this as a let down spot for OKL City. Honestly I was thinking last night how good of an opportunity this is to cash in on the Bulls....
then I see you have OKL City...
Any reasons I am over-looking here?
Posted:
#180
Quote Originally Posted by Trey_Dogg:
Happy..keep up the good work...i've been following you over the last couple weeks and respect your style.
That said, i'm a bit perplexed by the Thunder pick tonight...YES, I agree I think that is the better team...BUT, they played late on the west coast last night and have to travel to play at Chicago at 5pm PST tonight....this is the 3rd game now that Bulls have boozer back and I just see this as a let down spot for OKL City. Honestly I was thinking last night how good of an opportunity this is to cash in on the Bulls....
then I see you have OKL City...
Any reasons I am over-looking here?
Like2betmore stated it perfectly..refer to his answer for the concise answer to your question. To expand on the answer many times early on when I started my gambling endeavors I would let my "gut feeling" get in the way of what my stats say should happen. Sometimes I was right, Sometimes I was wrong. In what I am doing now I would need to have the capability to predict at least 60% of the games I am going to get incorrect to make it profitable especially with the lines averaging +130 since I have been posting on here. (43.5% break even point)
So with what you said of OC being a better team but traval and this and that..I guess the question with the line at +170 do you think the bulls will win more than 63% of the time they play with all the above occuring. If so you fade, if not game on.. Best of luck to all!
Posted:
#181
The analogy of this game was OKC had a late back to back though?
Also, I personally look at team pysch to determine my picks. OKC are nothing short of lazy Mofo's this year and are easily giving over 100 points a game. They won't win 40 Games this year pulling that BS.
This team is worth laying when they are favorites on the line.
I'm cashing in on Pacers/Bulls money line so no argument there.
Looking forward to tomorrow's picks.
Also, I personally look at team pysch to determine my picks. OKC are nothing short of lazy Mofo's this year and are easily giving over 100 points a game. They won't win 40 Games this year pulling that BS.
This team is worth laying when they are favorites on the line.
I'm cashing in on Pacers/Bulls money line so no argument there.
Looking forward to tomorrow's picks.
Posted:
#182
Right on, appreciate the feedback and sorry i didnt read the entire thread more detailed
That said, I do like the angle you have of essentially only taking plus-moneylines-- so you aren't paying juice - the book is. genius! because at the end of the day the parody in the NBA is great, and for those nba games under 4 or 5 point spread, the outright winner is generally a coinflip.
best of luck and look forward to seeing your system picks
Posted:
#183
I'm liking Charlotte and Phoenix.
They should have the edges in the match ups and Charlotte ain't too bad at home against a Denver team that simply has no game rhythm and look susceptible when they get defended on - which Charlotte can do.
Portland don't have the accuracy of Suns but they have better defensive intensity although i do see Suns affecting alot of overs/unders recently by actually playing sound defense in order to get fast break plays happening. That's what i observed with a game or 2 I seen recently
What does your data suggest?
They should have the edges in the match ups and Charlotte ain't too bad at home against a Denver team that simply has no game rhythm and look susceptible when they get defended on - which Charlotte can do.
Portland don't have the accuracy of Suns but they have better defensive intensity although i do see Suns affecting alot of overs/unders recently by actually playing sound defense in order to get fast break plays happening. That's what i observed with a game or 2 I seen recently
What does your data suggest?
Posted:
#184
Scrap the analogy on the Denver/Charlotte. Looks like there is alot of unrest within that team and alot of whining under the covers regarding the team chemistry.
I think Denver will want to take this one for George Karl's 1000th Win and there is alot of motivation on the Denver players to do so. They are aware of allowing Memphis back into a Game they should have won comfortably.
This could possibly be the BET OF THE YEAR if on Nuggets.
I think Denver will want to take this one for George Karl's 1000th Win and there is alot of motivation on the Denver players to do so. They are aware of allowing Memphis back into a Game they should have won comfortably.
This could possibly be the BET OF THE YEAR if on Nuggets.
Posted:
#185
Dec 6 Results
Reg: All Picks ALWAYS moneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder +168 (+4.5) (Lost)
Parlay:
None
______________________________________________________
Reg: $2796 (17 - 14) +7.96 units
Parlay: $3359 (3 - 7) +11.59 units
Total: +19.55 units
Spread +2 Record (22 - 9)
_______________________________________________________
Dec 7 Picks
Reg: All picks ALWAYS moneyline
Phoenex Suns +125 (+3)
Parlay:
None
Posted:
#186
Trey_dogg,
In response to the playing on the west coast and the travel. It got me interested so I looked at every game this year in regaurds to days rest and here what I came up with.
0 Days Rest (Play the next day):
Record 18 - 7 (8 - 3 prior game was at home) (10 - 4 last game was away)
1 Day Rest:
Record 12 - 13 (6 - 4 prior game was at home) (6 - 9 prior game was away)
2 Days Rest:
Record 6 - 4 (2 - 2 prior game was at home) (4 - 2 prior game was away)
3 Days Rest:
Record 2 - 1
I was hoping to see some correlation but the only thing that stands out thus far was the 1 day rest with the prior game being away. Theres not enough information really to make any assumptions yet but thats what I have so far.
Posted:
#187
Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:
Scrap the analogy on the Denver/Charlotte. Looks like there is alot of unrest within that team and alot of whining under the covers regarding the team chemistry.
I think Denver will want to take this one for George Karl's 1000th Win and there is alot of motivation on the Denver players to do so. They are aware of allowing Memphis back into a Game they should have won comfortably.
This could possibly be the BET OF THE YEAR if on Nuggets.
Scrap the analogy on the Denver/Charlotte. Looks like there is alot of unrest within that team and alot of whining under the covers regarding the team chemistry.
I think Denver will want to take this one for George Karl's 1000th Win and there is alot of motivation on the Denver players to do so. They are aware of allowing Memphis back into a Game they should have won comfortably.
This could possibly be the BET OF THE YEAR if on Nuggets.
My stuff has the Golden State, Wizards, Atlanta, Nuggets as leans from best lean to worst. It has the other games as a coin flip with those lines.
Posted:
#188
Very interesting Happy Capper. You have a very inquisitive mind. I think i'm on to something, check it out...
Just to let everyone know, I started a thread today for my "XLR8's NBA O/U system" today is my day 1.
63% percent last year, 64% so far this year. Check my NBA O/U record.
I am #1 so far this year on NBA O/U on this site.
Thinker inspired me and I gave him credit on my thread....
Sorry for the cheap publicity attempt, Happy. I Won't do it again.
Posted:
#189
Quote Originally Posted by HappyCappers:
Interesting...I'm going to look later tonight at the East teams traveling west on back-to-backs and see if there are any worthy trends.
Trey_dogg,
In response to the playing on the west coast and the travel. It got me interested so I looked at every game this year in regaurds to days rest and here what I came up with.
0 Days Rest (Play the next day):
Record 18 - 7 (8 - 3 prior game was at home) (10 - 4 last game was away)
1 Day Rest:
Record 12 - 13 (6 - 4 prior game was at home) (6 - 9 prior game was away)
2 Days Rest:
Record 6 - 4 (2 - 2 prior game was at home) (4 - 2 prior game was away)
3 Days Rest:
Record 2 - 1
I was hoping to see some correlation but the only thing that stands out thus far was the 1 day rest with the prior game being away. Theres not enough information really to make any assumptions yet but thats what I have so far.
keep up the good work bro and let's go phoenix tonight !
Posted:
#193
Dec 7 Results
Reg: All picks ALWAYS moneyline
Phoenex Suns +125 (+3) (Loser)
Parlay:
None
______________________________________________________
Reg: $2696 (17 - 15) +6.96 units
Parlay: $3359 (3 - 7) +11.59 units
Total: +18.55 units
Spread +2 Record (22 - 10)
_______________________________________________________
Tough loss... We have 2 games for Dec 8th. Ill be posting as soon as the lines get up. Lets have a big day tommorrow.
Posted:
#195
______________________________________________________
Reg: $2696 (17 - 15) +6.96 units
Parlay: $3159 (3 - 7) +11.59 units
Total: +18.55 units
Spread +2 Record (22 - 10)
_______________________________________________________
Dec 8th Picks
Reg: All Picks are ALWAYS Moneyline
Indiana Pacers +110 (+2)
Washington Wizards +155 (+4)
Parlay:
Pacers +110/Wiz +155 to win $435.50
Posted:
#196
Happy, I know you've been asked this several times, but I want to make sure I truly understand your system / method....
So tonight, you'll pick both
1. Indy ML +110
2. Washington ML +155
as seperate solo plays?
Then you'll also play a 2 team parlay with Indy +2 & Washington +4 for $100 to win $435.50?
Is this correct? If not, what am I missing? I also am a a little unclear about when and where you buy 2 points. I'd appreciate any clarification...
Yours Truly,
"Head Up My Ass"
Posted:
#197
Happy GL tonight...I like Indy and this could be a good spot for the sorry Wiz to get a W against a confused kings group. good odds there.
i think i'm going to lay the 7 on Boston, I believe that cohesive group may stomp denver...and possibly -8 on the lakers!
Also regarding my thought on back-to-back road trips, maybe as we get deeper in the season when their legs are getting tired, the 2nd night in a row on the road should become a good spot to fade road favorites
Posted:
#198
Quote Originally Posted by chixdinna:
Happy, I know you've been asked this several times, but I want to make sure I truly understand your system / method....
So tonight, you'll pick both
1. Indy ML +110
2. Washington ML +155
as seperate solo plays?
Then you'll also play a 2 team parlay with Indy +2 & Washington +4 for $100 to win $435.50?
Is this correct? If not, what am I missing? I also am a a little unclear about when and where you buy 2 points. I'd appreciate any clarification...
Yours Truly,
"Head Up My Ass"
I bet on the ML and parlay all ML picks of the day. I kept the spread +2 record just to see how it does. At times I have bet on the spread +2 as well as parlayed them, (I am not suggesting you do this) but I have done this on top of playing the ML. What I suggest is betting on one unit on ML and one unit on parlaying all the picks of the day on the ML. Some people I have talked with bet 1 unit on each game and 1/2 a unit on the parlay. Well I think my explanation is about as clear as mud. So in short.
Bet Indy ML +110. Bet Wash ML +155 as individual bets...Then parlay the Moneylines for both to win outright. So you will then be parlaying the Wash ML and Indy ML which pays out better than 4 to 1. Hope this resolved any questions you have. Feel free to msg me if you have any other questions.
Posted:
#199
Quote Originally Posted by HappyCappers:
I bet on the ML and parlay all ML picks of the day. I kept the spread +2 record just to see how it does. At times I have bet on the spread +2 as well as parlayed them, (I am not suggesting you do this) but I have done this on top of playing the ML. What I suggest is betting on one unit on ML and one unit on parlaying all the picks of the day on the ML. Some people I have talked with bet 1 unit on each game and 1/2 a unit on the parlay. Well I think my explanation is about as clear as mud. So in short.
Bet Indy ML +110. Bet Wash ML +155 as individual bets...Then parlay the Moneylines for both to win outright. So you will then be parlaying the Wash ML and Indy ML which pays out better than 4 to 1. Hope this resolved any questions you have. Feel free to msg me if you have any other questions.
Very clear, and I appreciate it.
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