NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

With all these recent big home dogs let's  take a look at how my lines did in those games.

With a 2.5 or better difference-- 5-1 ATS

with a 4.5 difference -- 2-0 ATS.

I do have past results using 2.5 and 4.5  but unfortunately  I didn't get around to looking into them.

The largest difference happened last night with Celtics -.72 over Knicks with a -6.5 line.

That's  a 5.78 difference. 

2cd largest was on Nuggets game 4.

With OKC -1.57 and -7 for a 5.43 difference.

The only losing game was also last night Twolves covering VS warriors with a 3.89 difference. 

Speaking of OKC, they did have the best point margin in history.

I did point out of all the playoff teams this year OKC'S  play on the court was the most below their pt margin.

In other words they are not as good as that pt margin may suggest.

And of all the top rated teams I highly doubt any top rated team was as much below their point margin as OKC.

If we look at the 1st round, game 3 my lines had,

Grizz -1.78 getting those 4 extra desperation pts down 0-2.

Line was a ridiculous +9.5 wow, a huge difference  of over 10 pts.

And OKC won by 6

Then game 4 was even more ridiculous. 

My line OKC -2.22  with line -15.5 now we have a monster difference of over 13 points gives us an idea of how much OKC is being overvalued because they set the all-time record in PT margin

If we look at this game 5 my line does slightly favor Nuggets but not enough for any play on the Nuggets.

So with a good spot to back OKC and the line is not so inflated based on my lines..

Like Okc, much better on offense at home. Expecting alot more points from them. Not sure Den will match it, instead of full game total I was looking at OKc team total.. BOL claw u r one of the class acts on this site..

Thank you ...........

Yes good way to play game 5.  If game goes over then OKC needs to score alot pretty much.

I suppose Nuggets could score alot and OKC goes under but I doubt that would happen.

Cavs -6.5 (-120) live bet over Pacers --- 1.2 units

0-3, lost 3.95 units

Cavs missed several what looked like easy shots. Donavan missed 2 layup and was block on another for not attack8ng the way he should.

Then he missed on a bunny in the lane off an offensive reb.

While the Pacers continued their hot shooting.

Credit to the Pacers they knocked down shots, Cavs could of won but they can't leave all those easy missed shots behind.

No plays tonight. 

Interesting is both the Knicks and Pacers are top 5 in offensive FG%.

Last year I think Pacers were no 1 and made conference finals but the Knicks were like 18 or 19th.

Look at the turn-around for both Knicks and Celtics. Last year Celtics 8th this year 18th or 19th while Knicks went from 18 or 19 to i think 4th this year.

Complete opposites and look at the results.

MY LINES ................

OKC -1.57 over Nuggets

OKC in a closeout game. We don't use my lines in closeout games.

We back the team to win the series which is OKC.

OKC is off an 0-3 ATS run with 2 SU wins but not ATS wins . Great, great spot to back OKC.

With the line only at 4.5 there is not the same room for OKC to win but not cover as they did in those 2 games they won SU but failed to cover.

These strong top rated teams do close it out in the first opportunity quite often and they do it on the road quite often but with elevated lines like we saw VS Grizz in 1st round OKC won but failed to cover.

The only concern is OKC being a young team but as the top team and taking control of game 5  when needed to win that game and get it done and they did just that.

OKC -4 (-120) over Nuggets --- 2.4 units

Total is adjusted even lower then the last game but closeout games go under more often then not and the books do adjust for this.

So I'll pass on taking the OVER like I did game 5 with line adjusted down. 

But I would not take the Under here just because closeout games do go under more often.

season ---16-15, lost .04 units

Rough stretch of games.

Appears to be a bit of an anomaly. With both Cavs and Celtics, 2 teams with the common denominators  of past champs possibly losing the series.

This is unusual but not impossible. Nothing will be 100% . All we can do is try our best to make higher probability plays based on history.

But to go through this unusual round and still be right at even is not all that bad.

The ship should get righted over time.

Hopefully it starts tonight with a big OKC ATS win.

@theclaw

 Curious how you’re justifying a large wager on OKC -4 when your line is -1.57? Why have your own line if it’s not the primary factor to determine a play, and you ignore a 2-3 point negative discrepancy?

this and those cavs live bets in a blowout gm4 don’t seem very well founded, but good luck 

GL 

I don't use my line in some games, a close out game is one situation. Then I back the better team if clearly better and they should win series. Game 6's are very good spots to back these teams.

Didn't work put but this has consistently  been a great spot to back teams over the years.

0-1, lost 2.4 units

season --- 16-16, lost 2.44 units

MY LINES .......................game 7

OKC -9.57 over Nuggets

I don't use my line for closeout games, instead I back the team to win series if there is a clearly better team which we have with OKC.

But using my line as a point of reference, rarely would the team looking to close it out be a larger fav with my line then the books line as book Jack's the line up for the team favored to win series in closeout games.

Now they lowered the line.

OKC off 4 ATS losses and 1-5 ATS in series and 1-2 ATS at home.

Book adjusts the line based on recent results giving us value going against this adjustment.  I like 2 pts or more better though.

I have game 1 at 9.5 open at my book anyway. So a 1.5 adjustment, I would not make a play based purely on the line adjustment of only 1.5 but when added to the other info it becomes a better play.

Spot favors OKC in a very big way . This is a game of the year type spot.

The only thing prevents me from going large this game is the history of young players and teams not winning titles.

OKC could win then lose later but they could lose here as well.

Injuries cost me in that Cavs game with Mitchel hoppling and then Garland as well.

Here looks like injuries could be on my side this time. Sometime they are with you , sometimes against you but over time they should even out.

Had the Nuggets won this series I'd of had them the best remaining team and my favorite to win the title but now with the injuries who knows.

They need to win first  I doubt they will.

Play is on OKC ....................

OKC -8 over Nuggets - 2.2 units

I missed getting 7, geez hoping this doesn't come into play.

But I think OKC rolls by 15 +.

I completely  missed Celtics/Knicks game 6.

Been busy with my brother helping me with things around the house. I had no plays anyways and didn't have time to run the numbers on Celtics without Tatum, I could take a rough quess as I have done before. 

Knicks were incredible game 6, but Celtics FG % killed them that game. Pathetic 3pt shooting like 30 % and 36% overall.

Celtics were not the same team as last year.

I will try to look more into defending champs and how much they drop off in the next year. Celtics PR I dropped like 3 pts. That seems kind of large to me but I'd have to look it up to be sure.

Maybe I can find possible upset spots for defending champs.

If OKC wins this game 7 I think they roll the Twolves. 

Ant is a good, solid player but not an elite player, he is overrated by the media.

Using advanced metrics he does not fit any past players would be elite, not really close.

Player Efficiency Rating of 24 or better would be elite based on past players. He was like 19.7 last year and 20.5 this year.

He has upped that in the playoffs but not to 24.

Maybe he is 22.5, using win shares and other metrics he is not elite.

Last season he was incredible to open the playoffs playing at like 29, now you got something, then the talk became he I'd MJ's son and his style looks like MJ.

Remember that talk ?

But that 29 PER didn't last long.

Win shares per 48 minutes an elite player is .220 or better. Ant is not close to that. Like .140. His contribution to each win is not impressive.

And if you look at his usage, which is high his PER does not hold up based on such high usage. An elite player with that high of usage would have a much higher PER.

He does have potential and certainly can improve in the years ahead but has a ways to go before he is elite.

Overrated  player by the media.

Nice way to cap a tough series.  That OKC blowout must feel pretty gratifying.

.................. yea nice to see OKC get the big win

1-0, won 2 units

MY LINES .......................game 1's

OKC -10.64 over Twolves

Knicks -4.79 over Pacers

Knicks line about right on the number.

Now we see OKC is much better then the actual line according to my line. And with OKC off a game 1 SU & ATS loss last series , top rated teams off a game 1 loss are high probability plays next series game 1.

OKC needing to fight back after trailing won't want to go through that again and since they are clearly the better team showing up with high energy  and not being complacent they cruise to a game 1 win.

Play is on OKC .