NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

GL today 

GL today 

1-0, won 1 unit

season --- 20-16, won 2.56 units

On a 4-0 run won 5 units after a small losing streak.

Wow, that is what you call a regression. OKC regressed big-time.

Teams can regress back to back games or 2 of 3 games and also regress only 1 game .

With this regression being so large I suspect it may only be 1 game regression.  But I have no history to back that up.

I need to look further into this.  

As regression  over-rules all other methods.

Forget a lot of the numbers did you SEE how the Knicks could beat Indiana? Like coaching wise their offensive plays and depth created tons of points, NY had way less guys to score consistently and Indiana covered them well.. Here is one simple stat- Indiana is 44-16 since early January.. if NY was based in Jacksonville no one would be talking about this team either.. the high profile teams like them, the Cowboys, Maple Leafs always carry a popularity tax. 

This series is over and it’s only a question of 4 or 5 games

MY LINES ................

Knicks -.79 over Pacers

Pacers off 4 ATS wins while Knicks off 2 SU & ATS losses

Spot favors the Knicks. My line favors the Knicks by 2.79 pts.

Teams with a 2.5 difference  to closing line --- 25-14 ATS  from 2007 to 2016. Don't have the update to 2024.

Teams trailing by 2 games and a 1 pt difference  to closing line --- 12-6 ATS from 2007 to 2024

Teams down 0-2 and favored by 1 pt or more with my line --- 7-3 ATS ,  2024 & 2025

Pacers are 4-0 SU in games won by 5 pts or less.

Close Wins not sustainable.

Pacers have 2 players shooting 80% or better on 3's over the first 2 games and they only won by 5 pts or less. not sustainable.

Play is on the Knicks............

Appreciate your perspective. 44-16 equates to a 60 win season. That is pretty damn good .

There is alot to be said about hotter teams coming into the playoffs.

I dont see 2 players continuing to shoot 80% or better on 3's. And they only won by 5 and 3 pts.

One of those players had an absolutely  ridiculous 90% EFG %. The other over 80%

When these players regress what happens many times is they shoot well below their ave. And even worse is because they are so hot they don't stop shooting 3's and teammates keep feeding them as they continue to clank shots.

Watch for this in game 3.

Good analysis. That said hard to back the Knicks. I do agree with regression coming  on the hot shooting. Because of that I feel like under is a good play. Knicks line up change helps their defense but I believe in the end they lose a close game. Hopefully I'm wrong either way good luck with your play.

Knicks +2 over Pacers --- 1.1 units

@theclaw

higupin niyo lahat ng malas ko

@theclaw

1-0, won 1 unit

season --- 21-16, won 3.56 units

Knicks pull out the close game this time.

And the 2 Pacers Super 3 pt Shooters ?

Combined for a staggering 16.7% on 3's and 23.5% on all shots.

When regression hits it can hit hard.

MY LINES ............... game 4

OKC -2.64 over Twolves

with the current line at OKC -3 my line has a no play.

Needs to go to - 4 to be a play on Twolves.

How do our Super Teams better by 5.75 in conference finals do after a 10+ pt loss ?

Won by 12, 14, 17, 18, 25.......... 5-0 ATS

Small sample but, how do our Super Teams do after a close win by 5 pts or fewer ?

8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS

Won by ...... 44, 35, 31, 19, 8, 3, 1.

Here we have only a -3 line to beat, a win has high probability to cover.

These Super Teams don't put in poor games playing below their abilities back to back very often.

Play is on OKC 

I'll wait out the line if it goes to -4 then play according to my line is on Twolves I likely will pass.

This one of my favorite angles in conference finals.

Teams off a SU win and ATS win after trailing by 2 games or more and at least a 1 pt difference  to closing line.

2007 -2024 --- 10-1 ATS

Against the spread on the road this playoffs OKC is 0-6.  Food for thought. 

Nice pick, Claw!  You had the regression figured right on the money.

Yea I hear you......     

but the lines in those games were way off from my lines.

My Lines won every one of those road games for OKC including on Twolves game 3.

VS the Grizz line was off by over 7 pts game 3 and by 13 pts game 4. I was on the Grizz in both road games .

VS Nuggets once again line was off by a smaller amount but still more then enough  for a play on Nuggets.

Game 3 off by 3.93, game 4 off by 5.43

Game 6 off by a more respectable amount of 2.93 but still on the Nuggets.

I did play on OKC in some of those but for other reasons not because of the line.

With OKC being 0-6 ATS I put no stock in that record because it is the product of inflated line.

If anything I'd look for a regression of that 0-6 ATS record.

My line in this game does not take OKC but it also is not on the Twolves by anything significant. By .36

Based on other info I will play OKC.

Remember OKC also knows they have not played well on the road and then being off a big loss OKC should come very focused to right the ship.

Now that does not mean they win but when the better team has extra incentive to be very fucus they have a great shot to win and cover since they are the better team.