Cavs roll as I would have expected with all 3 injuried players coming back and they seemed to be playing without issues.
Sometimes injuried players come back but obviously hobbling. So you never know the true status. This can be risky. I have been on both sides of this in the last.
I did see Cavs at +1200 to win the title and +300 to win East. Very tempting for me, but to risky. Odds back to normal after that big win.
Cavs need the next game, game 4 I don't think will be as easy.
OKC couldn't get it done. They were right there to win maybe not cover but get back home court and couldn't do it VS much more experienced team.
They still have game 4 to gain back home court. This game will be pretty big pressure on them as a loss will pretty much be the end of the road. Down 3-1 will be very difficult to come back from.
We will get to see if this young team can get it done.
0-1, lost .6 units
season 16-12, won 3.91 units
Cavs roll as I would have expected with all 3 injuried players coming back and they seemed to be playing without issues.
Sometimes injuried players come back but obviously hobbling. So you never know the true status. This can be risky. I have been on both sides of this in the last.
I did see Cavs at +1200 to win the title and +300 to win East. Very tempting for me, but to risky. Odds back to normal after that big win.
Cavs need the next game, game 4 I don't think will be as easy.
OKC couldn't get it done. They were right there to win maybe not cover but get back home court and couldn't do it VS much more experienced team.
They still have game 4 to gain back home court. This game will be pretty big pressure on them as a loss will pretty much be the end of the road. Down 3-1 will be very difficult to come back from.
We will get to see if this young team can get it done.
Twolves -1.11 over Warriors ..........without Curry
Spot favors Cetics down 0-2, they recieve 4 extra desperation pts as the Cavs did but where-as my line favored Cavs -6.87 my line favors Knicks with the line -6 to 6.5.
So with the spot favoring Celtic and my line favoring the Knicks I will have to pass on this games.
If the line were to continue going up maybe I could back the Knicks as this could be an overraction from the Cavs being in the same spot and winning big.
This Celtics team is not the same as last year.
Cavs efficiency in 3's much better then Celtics and Cavs delivered on 3's when they needed to.
MY LINES. ...................Saturday
Celtics -4.72 over Knicks
Twolves -1.11 over Warriors ..........without Curry
Spot favors Cetics down 0-2, they recieve 4 extra desperation pts as the Cavs did but where-as my line favored Cavs -6.87 my line favors Knicks with the line -6 to 6.5.
So with the spot favoring Celtic and my line favoring the Knicks I will have to pass on this games.
If the line were to continue going up maybe I could back the Knicks as this could be an overraction from the Cavs being in the same spot and winning big.
This Celtics team is not the same as last year.
Cavs efficiency in 3's much better then Celtics and Cavs delivered on 3's when they needed to.
How do your line give Wolves -1.1 without Curry? On what basis? If Wolves just play shut down defense they will win this game without even hit the century mark. Who is going to score for GS?
Every day out of the red is a big win.
How do your line give Wolves -1.1 without Curry? On what basis? If Wolves just play shut down defense they will win this game without even hit the century mark. Who is going to score for GS?
How do your line give Wolves -1.1 without Curry? On what basis? If Wolves just play shut down defense they will win this game without even hit the century mark. Who is going to score for GS?
Twolves rate 4 in PRI. Warriors with Jimmy rate 5.75 plus they receive 4 pts for home court.
That makes Warriors -5.75 pt favorites.
How many pts you think Curry is worth ?
8, 9 10 pts, no chance of that.
Jimmy added 6.86 pts to the Warriors . Pre-Jimmy VS Jimmy only.
Is Curry worth more, maybe but not much more.
If we subtract the 6.86 pts deduction for Curry being out we get Twolves -1.11.
Now you can argue Twolves are better then 4 and/or Warriors not 5.75 with Jimmy.
But I will back what my ratings say, it has been a pretty reliable indicator over the years.
Even if my ratings are off a couple of pts and I agree they could be but my line stills pts to Warriors .
Even off by 3 pts that makes Twolves -4.11 still takes Warriors.
I don't think my line is off more them 3 pts.
Line at -5.5 or -6 is an overreaction to the last game with Curry out since the spot favor Twolves to win as the much better team to get back home court without Curry
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:
How do your line give Wolves -1.1 without Curry? On what basis? If Wolves just play shut down defense they will win this game without even hit the century mark. Who is going to score for GS?
Twolves rate 4 in PRI. Warriors with Jimmy rate 5.75 plus they receive 4 pts for home court.
That makes Warriors -5.75 pt favorites.
How many pts you think Curry is worth ?
8, 9 10 pts, no chance of that.
Jimmy added 6.86 pts to the Warriors . Pre-Jimmy VS Jimmy only.
Is Curry worth more, maybe but not much more.
If we subtract the 6.86 pts deduction for Curry being out we get Twolves -1.11.
Now you can argue Twolves are better then 4 and/or Warriors not 5.75 with Jimmy.
But I will back what my ratings say, it has been a pretty reliable indicator over the years.
Even if my ratings are off a couple of pts and I agree they could be but my line stills pts to Warriors .
Even off by 3 pts that makes Twolves -4.11 still takes Warriors.
I don't think my line is off more them 3 pts.
Line at -5.5 or -6 is an overreaction to the last game with Curry out since the spot favor Twolves to win as the much better team to get back home court without Curry
GSW is nothing without Curry. The opposing team just need to play lock down man-man defense then they can beat GS easily. He is the team - not about 5,6, or 10 points. Buddy Hield, Podzemski will not have open look without Curry.
Every day out of the red is a big win.
@theclaw
GSW is nothing without Curry. The opposing team just need to play lock down man-man defense then they can beat GS easily. He is the team - not about 5,6, or 10 points. Buddy Hield, Podzemski will not have open look without Curry.
@theclaw GSW is nothing without Curry. The opposing team just need to play lock down man-man defense then they can beat GS easily. He is the team - not about 5,6, or 10 points. Buddy Hield, Podzemski will not have open look without Curry.
Appreciate your perspective...............
Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:
@theclaw GSW is nothing without Curry. The opposing team just need to play lock down man-man defense then they can beat GS easily. He is the team - not about 5,6, or 10 points. Buddy Hield, Podzemski will not have open look without Curry.
Spot favors Cavs being the much better team needing a win. But my line favors Pacers.
I expect Cavs to win but the game should be much closer game then game 3. If Cavs win SU good chance they can cover. I'd lean a little more to Cavs covering because of the spot but will pass on the game.
Spot favors OKC but not as much as it favors Cavs. This is the game OKC must win, that is alot of pressure for a young team.
Nuggets put themselves in perfect position to win the series as the road team in the series.
My line favors Nuggets, with the line up to 7 that I saw at my book that leaves some decent amount for OKC to win but not cover. Although if OKC wins SU they very well could cover as most teams win SU cover.
I'd lean a bit more to Nuggets covering in this game but not enough to make a play.
I will pass and wait for better opportunities down the road.
MY LINES .....................Sunday
OKC - 1.57 over Nuggets
Cavs -2.87 over Pacers
Spot favors Cavs being the much better team needing a win. But my line favors Pacers.
I expect Cavs to win but the game should be much closer game then game 3. If Cavs win SU good chance they can cover. I'd lean a little more to Cavs covering because of the spot but will pass on the game.
Spot favors OKC but not as much as it favors Cavs. This is the game OKC must win, that is alot of pressure for a young team.
Nuggets put themselves in perfect position to win the series as the road team in the series.
My line favors Nuggets, with the line up to 7 that I saw at my book that leaves some decent amount for OKC to win but not cover. Although if OKC wins SU they very well could cover as most teams win SU cover.
I'd lean a bit more to Nuggets covering in this game but not enough to make a play.
I will pass and wait for better opportunities down the road.
The Thunder are 14-2 this season following a loss, and the average margin of victory has been 18.5 points. Whoa.
In the two games this season in which they had the opportunity to immediately gain revenge on an opponent, they beat the Lakers by 16 and the Nuggets by 43 in Game 2.
The Thunder are 14-2 this season following a loss, and the average margin of victory has been 18.5 points. Whoa.
In the two games this season in which they had the opportunity to immediately gain revenge on an opponent, they beat the Lakers by 16 and the Nuggets by 43 in Game 2.
I went back and looked up past champs and past top teams on my PR's to see if I could find a team as young as OKC.
Nope, couldn't find even 1. That's how young this team is.
But in fairness being young may not be all that bad because being a very good team could prove to be more important then being young.
I could not find a young team this good. No young teams have been able to accomplish this level of play in the past from what I looked up.
I didn't look up everything so I could of missed some things.
But, looking back at my past NO.1 Ranked teams that failed to make the Finals the one common denominator was the best player was under 25 years old. Like for example the Freak being 24 with some flaws in his game.
But overall the other players were not young on that Bucks team or the other teams.
If we look at OKC, SHAI is 26 at least 2 years older with 2 years more experience.
To me to risky, kind of unknown territory.
But I'll mostly side with my PR's as I believe in the long run skill and ability are the most important indicators for success. Skill is repeatable.
Hence I like OKC to win SU and go on to win this series. But I have to respect my lines that have proven to me over time they can be pretty good at beating public opinion when book starts to jack the lines up based on past games.
We just saw OKC in game 2 needing to win pound the Nuggets so now we are seeing an inflated line based on my PR's.
Just because a team won big once in a spot they needed a win is not an indication they will do it again. More likely this game will be played close.
I went back and looked up past champs and past top teams on my PR's to see if I could find a team as young as OKC.
Nope, couldn't find even 1. That's how young this team is.
But in fairness being young may not be all that bad because being a very good team could prove to be more important then being young.
I could not find a young team this good. No young teams have been able to accomplish this level of play in the past from what I looked up.
I didn't look up everything so I could of missed some things.
But, looking back at my past NO.1 Ranked teams that failed to make the Finals the one common denominator was the best player was under 25 years old. Like for example the Freak being 24 with some flaws in his game.
But overall the other players were not young on that Bucks team or the other teams.
If we look at OKC, SHAI is 26 at least 2 years older with 2 years more experience.
To me to risky, kind of unknown territory.
But I'll mostly side with my PR's as I believe in the long run skill and ability are the most important indicators for success. Skill is repeatable.
Hence I like OKC to win SU and go on to win this series. But I have to respect my lines that have proven to me over time they can be pretty good at beating public opinion when book starts to jack the lines up based on past games.
We just saw OKC in game 2 needing to win pound the Nuggets so now we are seeing an inflated line based on my PR's.
Just because a team won big once in a spot they needed a win is not an indication they will do it again. More likely this game will be played close.
The Thunder are 14-2 this season following a loss, and the average margin of victory has been 18.5 points. Whoa. In the two games this season in which they had the opportunity to immediately gain revenge on an opponent, they beat the Lakers by 16 and the Nuggets by 43 in Game 2.
Wow, no doubt that is impressive. But not in the same pressure situation we have in this game.
OKC has to win this game or risk putting themselves in a very, very difficult situation as a very young team.
Game 2 is not the same spot, since for one there is a strong history of road team not winning both home games 1& 2. OKC did what most other teams do, nothing special there.
And the road team many times having already accomplished what they came to do which was get 1 of those first 2 games does not match the intensity and energy of the desperate home team that needs to win.
A big win is not a bad thing for the road team, it still only counts for 1 loss no matter the size.
OKC set the record for best piont margin in history , however OKC's play on the court is not close to that margin of victory meaning it is not justified based on skill.
They are not as good as that point margin is suggesting .
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
The Thunder are 14-2 this season following a loss, and the average margin of victory has been 18.5 points. Whoa. In the two games this season in which they had the opportunity to immediately gain revenge on an opponent, they beat the Lakers by 16 and the Nuggets by 43 in Game 2.
Wow, no doubt that is impressive. But not in the same pressure situation we have in this game.
OKC has to win this game or risk putting themselves in a very, very difficult situation as a very young team.
Game 2 is not the same spot, since for one there is a strong history of road team not winning both home games 1& 2. OKC did what most other teams do, nothing special there.
And the road team many times having already accomplished what they came to do which was get 1 of those first 2 games does not match the intensity and energy of the desperate home team that needs to win.
A big win is not a bad thing for the road team, it still only counts for 1 loss no matter the size.
OKC set the record for best piont margin in history , however OKC's play on the court is not close to that margin of victory meaning it is not justified based on skill.
They are not as good as that point margin is suggesting .
CAVS looked lifeless, Pacers just brought much more energy and looked very engaged while Cavs appeared lost.
I suppose Cavs with 2 starters out and 6th man out for game 2 and should, could of won, then winning big game 3 with those 3 back came into this game like it'd be another easy win. We show up get the win head home and take the 3-2 lead.
Piece of cake right. Pacers had other ideas.
OKC/Nuggets played put like I thought it would. OKC did get out to big lead but after Nuggets came back the game was close pretty much the rest of the way.
OKC got the win with Nuggets getting the cover.
When teams need a win and then win big in these spots they don't necessarily repeat with a big win in the next game they need a win.
Cavs need a win win by 22 then don't repeat that big win.
OKC needs a win and wins by 43 next time they need a win they win by 5.
Twolves need a win they win by 24 then when need a win win by 5.
Now it is the Celtics turn. They Needed a win and Win by 22, will they repeat that big win as they now need another win ?
1-1, lost .1 units
CAVS looked lifeless, Pacers just brought much more energy and looked very engaged while Cavs appeared lost.
I suppose Cavs with 2 starters out and 6th man out for game 2 and should, could of won, then winning big game 3 with those 3 back came into this game like it'd be another easy win. We show up get the win head home and take the 3-2 lead.
Piece of cake right. Pacers had other ideas.
OKC/Nuggets played put like I thought it would. OKC did get out to big lead but after Nuggets came back the game was close pretty much the rest of the way.
OKC got the win with Nuggets getting the cover.
When teams need a win and then win big in these spots they don't necessarily repeat with a big win in the next game they need a win.
Cavs need a win win by 22 then don't repeat that big win.
OKC needs a win and wins by 43 next time they need a win they win by 5.
Twolves need a win they win by 24 then when need a win win by 5.
Now it is the Celtics turn. They Needed a win and Win by 22, will they repeat that big win as they now need another win ?
Celtics down 2-1 and on the road the spot favors Celtics. Pretty much a must win game for them.
But again my line favors Knicks.
With Celtics off a big win I'd look for a closer game here in this spot. This game I expect Knicks will bring a bigger game and match anything the Celtics bring in terms of energy and effort.
Celtics being the better team with CD's of past champs VS a team without out those I think Celticsvshould get the SU win.
But like OKC who was certainly in position late to cover but didn't, Celtics could very well be in the same position and get it done or not, I think it will be more random luck so to me not a good play.
I pass on this game.
MY LINES ................. monday
Celtics -.72 over Knicks
Twolves -1.11 over Warriors
Celtics down 2-1 and on the road the spot favors Celtics. Pretty much a must win game for them.
But again my line favors Knicks.
With Celtics off a big win I'd look for a closer game here in this spot. This game I expect Knicks will bring a bigger game and match anything the Celtics bring in terms of energy and effort.
Celtics being the better team with CD's of past champs VS a team without out those I think Celticsvshould get the SU win.
But like OKC who was certainly in position late to cover but didn't, Celtics could very well be in the same position and get it done or not, I think it will be more random luck so to me not a good play.
Spot favors Warriors off a home loss, and the line favors the Warriors. I wanted to take the Warriors game 3 had the line gone up just a bit from the +5.5 or +6 which both were available at the time.
This is a better spot for a Warriors SU win, game 3 spot favored Twolves SU win with Warriors covering.
Warriors need to hang in there get a win and maybe Curry could make it back . But with OKC/ Nuggets l9cked into 2-2 tie Wolves just might bring their biggest game of the year in terms of effort to try and end this quick for the rest and before Curry gets back.
I will have to pass once again. I just do t want to force a play is not there.
Spot favors Warriors off a home loss, and the line favors the Warriors. I wanted to take the Warriors game 3 had the line gone up just a bit from the +5.5 or +6 which both were available at the time.
This is a better spot for a Warriors SU win, game 3 spot favored Twolves SU win with Warriors covering.
Warriors need to hang in there get a win and maybe Curry could make it back . But with OKC/ Nuggets l9cked into 2-2 tie Wolves just might bring their biggest game of the year in terms of effort to try and end this quick for the rest and before Curry gets back.
I will have to pass once again. I just do t want to force a play is not there.
Cavs trail 3-1 and at home off a 20 pt loss. Great spot to back Cavs
And Cavs off a regression then off 3 ATS losses, strong spot to back the Cavs.
Play is on the Cavs
OKC off 2 ATS losses and needing a win. Spot favors OKC but as a young team might be more risky.
I think play is on OKC.
OFF 2 unders and a ridiculous 179 pts last game the line gets adjusted down. Both teams could not make shots last game. Doubtful that happens to OKC tonight at home or Nuggets for that matter.
Play is on the over.
Cavs -7 (-120) over Pacers --- 1.2 units
OKC/NUGGETS OVER 220.5 --- 1.1 units
OKC -10 over Nuggets --- .55 units
If Donavon plays I will up my play on Cavs by 1 unit
MY LINES .......................tuesday
cavs -10.87 over Pacers
OKC -9.57 over Nuggets
Cavs trail 3-1 and at home off a 20 pt loss. Great spot to back Cavs
And Cavs off a regression then off 3 ATS losses, strong spot to back the Cavs.
Play is on the Cavs
OKC off 2 ATS losses and needing a win. Spot favors OKC but as a young team might be more risky.
I think play is on OKC.
OFF 2 unders and a ridiculous 179 pts last game the line gets adjusted down. Both teams could not make shots last game. Doubtful that happens to OKC tonight at home or Nuggets for that matter.
Play is on the over.
Cavs -7 (-120) over Pacers --- 1.2 units
OKC/NUGGETS OVER 220.5 --- 1.1 units
OKC -10 over Nuggets --- .55 units
If Donavon plays I will up my play on Cavs by 1 unit
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