NBA PLAYOFF TIME .....................2025......

OKC -7 (-120) over Twolves --- 1.2 units

OKC VS Twolves ....................conference finals

Shooting Efficiency  Margin .......

OKC 6.11% .........OKC by 3.94%

Twolves 2.17%

PR II ........

OKC 55.51........ by 2.89

Twolves 52.62

When added together ..........

OKC by 6.83

In conference finals when over 2.75 added together.......

17-2 winning the series going back to 1980

15- 4 win game 1 SU.

12-7 won both games 1&2 SU.

When added together 5.75 or better ......

7-1 winning the series

7-1 won game 1 SU, the only losing team is only team to lose the series. Celtics in 2023 VS Heat

Won 6 of 8 series 4-0 or 4-1. (75%)

Of teams below 5.75 .....6 of 11 won series 4-0, or 4-1. (54.5%)

Being a combined 2.75 or better is a strong indicator of domination but over 5.75 is a very strong indicator of domination to come.

OKC should win game 1 and in 5 games or fewer.

History has spoken ................

That would be the Joe Mazzulla Factor. You can lay that big upset loss in Game 1 and the humiliating series loss around his neck like a wreath. The Boston Celtics’ commitment to diversity, equity, and inclusion cost the storied franchise the 2023 NBA title. 

MY LINES ..................

OKC -10.64 over Twolves

In conference finals ...............my lines in all games

55-38 ATS , 59%

I am missing 2 covid years

With a 2.5 difference  to books closing line .......

41-25 ATS, 62%

This goes to 2017, I don't have the info untill last year unfortunately. 

Play has to be on OKC or no play.

Strong teams off only 1 big blowout win are not go against teams. These teams can easily string together more ATS wins.

Thanks for that info ...................

The other loss which I didn't mention with teams combined for over 2.75 but not over 5.75 was 2001 Spurs who lost to the Shaq & Kobe Lakers. 

LA off a championship the year before and did not play well in regular season.

But they really turned up their game big time in the playoffs and became one of if not the most dominate playoff team all-time.

OKC down 5 .....

OKC -3.5 (-115) over Twolves--- 1.15 units

Makes sense. In a league that's 80 percent Black, this one Black guy is a "DEI hire."

Claw…. Another good eve… well done.  

2-0, won 2 units

CONFERENCE FINALS .................Knicks VS Pacers

PR I ......

Knicks 2.92 .......by .79

Pacers 2.13

PR II ......

Knicks 51.69......... by 1.66

Pacers 50.03 

Shooting Efficiency Margin ...........

Pacers 2.13% ........   by .69%

Knicks 1.44%

Rebounding Efficiency .............

Knicks 50.25% .........by 2.35

Pacers 47.9%

Pacers are the better team in the all-important shooting efficiency indicator but not by any significant amount. Over 1% is minimum. 

Poor rebounding teams don't win titles very often or even make the Finals very often.

With the Knicks being over 2% in rebounding is alot and teams over 2% in either shooting efficiency  or rebounding efficiency I would not go against.

I like the Knicks to advance to the finals but won't take any action on this . I think the Knicks are the better overall team but not a strong enough team to back.

It looks like there is alot of love for the Pacers from what I see online on you tube. They are mostly bringing up the shooting efficiency  of the Pacers. I can understand the love as this would be the series to call for an upset as it is close other then rebounding but I think the rebounding with the history of weak rebounding teams being very poor getting to the finals I have to like the Knicks.

And the fact so many like the Pacers only adds to my belief.

GL CLAW 

MY LINES .....................

Knicks - 4.79 over Pacers

Knicks off a big blowout win by 38 pts. Pacers off 2 SU & ATS wins including a big 20 pt win.

I wouldn't  back the Knicks off one big blowout win like I would do with a far stronger team like OKC.

I pass on this game but there should be some good spots to back either team down the road.

Wow, crazy finish by Pacers. They continue to deliver in the clutch moments but getting a good amount of luck to do it.

We have to remember, close wins are not indicators of good teams nor are they repeatable over the longer term.

Mahomes and KC learn this lesson the hard way in the SB.

And so will the Pacers if they make the Finals VS OKC. Assuming OKC gets there.

But what we generally  hear from the public and even some experts is , it's just the Pacers year. Everything is breaking well for them. They know how to close out games, play well in the clutch.

When/if we hear this you know to go the other way.

MY LINES ................. game 2

OKC -10.64 over Twolves

OKC off 2 blowout big wins by 32 and by 26. Not the best of spots to back OKC. 

I would not say it is a spot to automatically go against OKC though as I am quite sure many sharps will do.

Using my NBA PLAYOFF Bounce Factor teams off big blowout wins need to win 3 SU and 3 ATS  or 3 of 4 ATS.

This is quite common for many stronger teams to accomplish and OKC has not done it yet so winning and covering 1 more game would not be out of the ordinary for a strong team like OKC.

Where in my opinion sharps get it wrong is they look at all teams in all situations where-as I look at more specific spots involving stronger teams and bigger mismatch's VS opponent.

Let's look at the mismatch of strong team VS much weaker opp.

Using the method , teams shooting efficiency margin  added to PR II and being over 2.75.

There's  been 19 teams going back to 1980.

12 teams of the 19 won both game 1& 2.

14 of 19 won either game 1 or 2 by 8pts or more.

Of the 10 teams to win game 1 by 8 pts or more therefore putting themselves in position to win both game 1& 2 by 8 pts or more, 7 of the 10 teams did just that winning both games by 8 or more with at least 1 game by 9 or more.

70% won game 2 by 8 or more pts.

MY LINES ............

Teams off a SU loss and favored by my lines by at least 1 pt to the closing line..........

2007 - 2024 .........25-13 ATS

I am missing a few years.

My Lines favor OKC not Twolves off a loss.

Teams 2.5 or better from my line to closing line......

25-14 ATS  .....2007 to 2016

Unfortunately don't have up till last year 

Favors OKC

As we can see there is alot about this spot favors OKC, if anything I'd  have to pass but will lean to OKC winning SU and ATS.

I may take a half a unit on OKC. I think OKC is the right play.

I didn't mention 6 of 8 teams over 5.75 won the series 4-0 or 4-1, again points more to OKC winning game 2.

Of course they could lose ATs or lose SU then win 3 straight and win 4-1.

Too many things point to OKC based on quality of a strong team VS a much weaker opp.

And I didn't bring up Ant being overrated by the media based on Advanced Meterics.

To many think Twolves are sone string team based on last year and Ant being an elite player when the evidence does not back that up.

MY LINES ....................game 3

Twolves -1.36 over OKC 

OKC off 3 ATS wins and couple big blowout wins, very bad spot to back OKC. Playoff regression  play ........Play is Twolves 

OKC could cover 1 more game but regression  is coming ...... If OKC does cover game 3 then game 4 being a closeout game the book will jack-up the line and OKC will have more room to win and not cover or they could even lose SU. 

I'll  take some action but not as large since if OKC does cover I can double up next game.

Twolves +3 over OKC --- 1.1 Units

GL today 

Good luck with MIN.