NBA Finals Game 3.......Lakers at Magic
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Before the playoffs started I took Lakers +185, and Orlando at 15-1.
I get paid more if Lakers win, but I will gladly dump that if I can watch Harold Miner lose.
Before the playoffs started I took Lakers +185, and Orlando at 15-1.
I get paid more if Lakers win, but I will gladly dump that if I can watch Harold Miner lose.
people that go back and re-quote themselves are douchey. ![]()
people that go back and re-quote themselves are douchey. ![]()
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Lesson learned, MrB -- I got stuck with -4.5
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Lesson learned, MrB -- I got stuck with -4.5
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Commentary from B. Lang?
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Commentary from B. Lang?
No, I wrote that.
You guys have an oddly familiar writing style. See if I can find some old stuff from him when I big game he was on pushed or lost by the hook due to a last minute line move.
On another note, who is your predicted series winner? I haven't been keeping up.
No, I wrote that.
You guys have an oddly familiar writing style. See if I can find some old stuff from him when I big game he was on pushed or lost by the hook due to a last minute line move.
On another note, who is your predicted series winner? I haven't been keeping up.
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Been gambling for just a mere 4 years now. Not getting rich by it, but smart enough to have money and continue gambling.
MrB, I follow you and never really respond. You know you're shit, as everything you mention makes sense. I bet this game once the line hit -3.5. I call myself lucky for the freethrows there, but only way to gamble effectively, is to put your damn money in a smart situation. Period. You will lose from time to time, but thats why its gambling and not everyone does it.
And yes, its not fun about 90% of the time. Blowouts are rare, and being able to take a loss and enjoy a night out is tough. Its a trained art. Not being able to show the loss to the wife/girlfriend is a task. This sport Isn't for everyone, takes a different breed. I do not recommend it to everyone. Its a dirty drug without the direct health effects, unless you want to put stress as a factor :)
Lets go game 5. MrB, thoughts? My instincts have me on Lakers ML, but I haven't studied up yet.
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
Been gambling for just a mere 4 years now. Not getting rich by it, but smart enough to have money and continue gambling.
MrB, I follow you and never really respond. You know you're shit, as everything you mention makes sense. I bet this game once the line hit -3.5. I call myself lucky for the freethrows there, but only way to gamble effectively, is to put your damn money in a smart situation. Period. You will lose from time to time, but thats why its gambling and not everyone does it.
And yes, its not fun about 90% of the time. Blowouts are rare, and being able to take a loss and enjoy a night out is tough. Its a trained art. Not being able to show the loss to the wife/girlfriend is a task. This sport Isn't for everyone, takes a different breed. I do not recommend it to everyone. Its a dirty drug without the direct health effects, unless you want to put stress as a factor :)
Lets go game 5. MrB, thoughts? My instincts have me on Lakers ML, but I haven't studied up yet.
Respectfully, I disagree with this advice. ![]()
Respectfully, I disagree with this advice. ![]()
You guys have an oddly familiar writing style. See if I can find some old stuff from him when I big game he was on pushed or lost by the hook due to a last minute line move.
Now that you mention it, hustle man, I recall reading Lang giving his customers the "never get beat by the hook" routine, where he implores his people to buy the half point. I remember thinking to myself "What a huge sleazebag. Sure, tell them to buy the hook, buy the hook. What do you care if your customers slowly get chiseled spending 10 cents for a half point as long as they avoid the occasional loss so your record can look slightly less horrid?"
Obviously, my advice above is not the same. I never recommend buying the hook (although a couple times I can remember doing it myself in football, buying a 9.5 -110 dog up to +10 -120, but that's probably not a bad idea, actually).
You guys have an oddly familiar writing style. See if I can find some old stuff from him when I big game he was on pushed or lost by the hook due to a last minute line move.
Now that you mention it, hustle man, I recall reading Lang giving his customers the "never get beat by the hook" routine, where he implores his people to buy the half point. I remember thinking to myself "What a huge sleazebag. Sure, tell them to buy the hook, buy the hook. What do you care if your customers slowly get chiseled spending 10 cents for a half point as long as they avoid the occasional loss so your record can look slightly less horrid?"
Obviously, my advice above is not the same. I never recommend buying the hook (although a couple times I can remember doing it myself in football, buying a 9.5 -110 dog up to +10 -120, but that's probably not a bad idea, actually).
On another note, who is your predicted series winner? I haven't been keeping up.
As soon as the Magic finished off Cleveland, I thought about the Finals for about two minutes and my first square impulse was "Lakers in six." Then I started doing my reading and saw that I had plenty of company in figuring a 6-game Laker victory. That wasn't a good sign. Then President Obama again made the mistake of publicly picking one team over another (which I feel he should never do) when he said "Lakers in six." Now I had strong evidence that my initial lean was square. Then on ESPN.com, I saw a poll that revealed that 46% of respondents picked the Lakers in six. At that point, I began considering every possibility except the Lakers in six.
The most common thinking was that the Lakers would take the first two, lose badly in Game 3, bounce back and take Game 4, mail-in Game 5, then finish things up at home in Game 6. Well, that's too convenient, and it gives little respect to the Magic, treating them as if their one significant victory would come in Game 3 and that's it. I think the Lakers would have been better off laying down last night, then setting themselves up for their usual big bounceback effort in Game 4. That would be L.A.'s usual M.O., but instead they collectively chose to put forth a serious effort in Game 3 against what they knew would be Orlando's most desperate effort, and likely Orlando's best game so far in this series. I don't think that was a good idea. The Lakers gave it a great shot, but it didn't work, and now (and you can call me crazy for thinking this way) they've denied themselves the usual motivation of playing much sharper off a lackadaisical half-effort.
The Lakers bounced back successfully off of poor efforts against Houston in Games 1, 4, and 6, and again against Denver in Games 2 and 4. It probably wasn't hard to get extremely focused for the next game after bad losses like those, what with so much room to improve, but where do they go from here after giving it all they had against the Magic in Game 3 and coming up short? The Lakers seem like a team that needs to get beat up in the court of public opinion in order to get serious. Well, they're not going to get beat up for last night's strong game. They're probably not going to be able to summon up an effort any better than that one, which means Game 4 is up for grabs, with the edge in my opinion going to the home team that's won 80% of their home games this season.
To answer your question, hustle man, before I go and get even further long-winded and nonsensical, I'm thinking more and more that the Lakers won't win any of the games in Orlando, which contrasts with what I believed as recently as a couple days ago, that they would definetely get at least one, most likely Game 4. However, I also believe that if they return to L.A. down 3 games to 2, they will win both Games 6 and 7. I can't see Orlando finishing them off. The Magic have shown a few times that they can get tight late in a big game, and that just doesn't happen to the Lakers.
On another note, who is your predicted series winner? I haven't been keeping up.
As soon as the Magic finished off Cleveland, I thought about the Finals for about two minutes and my first square impulse was "Lakers in six." Then I started doing my reading and saw that I had plenty of company in figuring a 6-game Laker victory. That wasn't a good sign. Then President Obama again made the mistake of publicly picking one team over another (which I feel he should never do) when he said "Lakers in six." Now I had strong evidence that my initial lean was square. Then on ESPN.com, I saw a poll that revealed that 46% of respondents picked the Lakers in six. At that point, I began considering every possibility except the Lakers in six.
The most common thinking was that the Lakers would take the first two, lose badly in Game 3, bounce back and take Game 4, mail-in Game 5, then finish things up at home in Game 6. Well, that's too convenient, and it gives little respect to the Magic, treating them as if their one significant victory would come in Game 3 and that's it. I think the Lakers would have been better off laying down last night, then setting themselves up for their usual big bounceback effort in Game 4. That would be L.A.'s usual M.O., but instead they collectively chose to put forth a serious effort in Game 3 against what they knew would be Orlando's most desperate effort, and likely Orlando's best game so far in this series. I don't think that was a good idea. The Lakers gave it a great shot, but it didn't work, and now (and you can call me crazy for thinking this way) they've denied themselves the usual motivation of playing much sharper off a lackadaisical half-effort.
The Lakers bounced back successfully off of poor efforts against Houston in Games 1, 4, and 6, and again against Denver in Games 2 and 4. It probably wasn't hard to get extremely focused for the next game after bad losses like those, what with so much room to improve, but where do they go from here after giving it all they had against the Magic in Game 3 and coming up short? The Lakers seem like a team that needs to get beat up in the court of public opinion in order to get serious. Well, they're not going to get beat up for last night's strong game. They're probably not going to be able to summon up an effort any better than that one, which means Game 4 is up for grabs, with the edge in my opinion going to the home team that's won 80% of their home games this season.
To answer your question, hustle man, before I go and get even further long-winded and nonsensical, I'm thinking more and more that the Lakers won't win any of the games in Orlando, which contrasts with what I believed as recently as a couple days ago, that they would definetely get at least one, most likely Game 4. However, I also believe that if they return to L.A. down 3 games to 2, they will win both Games 6 and 7. I can't see Orlando finishing them off. The Magic have shown a few times that they can get tight late in a big game, and that just doesn't happen to the Lakers.
Been gambling for just a mere 4 years now. Not getting rich by it, but smart enough to have money and continue gambling.
MrB, I follow you and never really respond. You know you're shit, as everything you mention makes sense. I bet this game once the line hit -3.5. I call myself lucky for the freethrows there, but only way to gamble effectively, is to put your damn money in a smart situation. Period. You will lose from time to time, but thats why its gambling and not everyone does it.
And yes, its not fun about 90% of the time. Blowouts are rare, and being able to take a loss and enjoy a night out is tough. Its a trained art. Not being able to show the loss to the wife/girlfriend is a task. This sport Isn't for everyone, takes a different breed. I do not recommend it to everyone. Its a dirty drug without the direct health effects, unless you want to put stress as a factor :)
Frogskins85, it's like you know me too well. When the betting's going good, the sun is shining, the birds are chirping, and someone can rear end my car and I'll cheerfully say "That's okay! I know a great body shop! They'll fix this in no time!" But when the tough losses come marching in like soldiers, nothing about the world is good. And if you're too serious about it like me, you don't even want to be a part of anything else until the tide turns, no matter how long that takes. That's......NOT a good thing. It really does take a different breed, and while you wouldn't recommend it to everyone, I would recommend it to no one.
Been gambling for just a mere 4 years now. Not getting rich by it, but smart enough to have money and continue gambling.
MrB, I follow you and never really respond. You know you're shit, as everything you mention makes sense. I bet this game once the line hit -3.5. I call myself lucky for the freethrows there, but only way to gamble effectively, is to put your damn money in a smart situation. Period. You will lose from time to time, but thats why its gambling and not everyone does it.
And yes, its not fun about 90% of the time. Blowouts are rare, and being able to take a loss and enjoy a night out is tough. Its a trained art. Not being able to show the loss to the wife/girlfriend is a task. This sport Isn't for everyone, takes a different breed. I do not recommend it to everyone. Its a dirty drug without the direct health effects, unless you want to put stress as a factor :)
Frogskins85, it's like you know me too well. When the betting's going good, the sun is shining, the birds are chirping, and someone can rear end my car and I'll cheerfully say "That's okay! I know a great body shop! They'll fix this in no time!" But when the tough losses come marching in like soldiers, nothing about the world is good. And if you're too serious about it like me, you don't even want to be a part of anything else until the tide turns, no matter how long that takes. That's......NOT a good thing. It really does take a different breed, and while you wouldn't recommend it to everyone, I would recommend it to no one.
MrB - thoughts on Game 4? I can get Orlando -2 -105 right now... seems as if everyone else has it at -2.5
Wait. Let the Laker love flow some more. I can feel Kobe Bryant's anxiety rising by the hour. He knows his reputation will take a terrible beating if he doesn't win this championship, and the "best closer in the game" is going to be pressing even more. I don't expect him to be denied in the end, but I expect this series victory to be as difficult as possible for him.
MrB - thoughts on Game 4? I can get Orlando -2 -105 right now... seems as if everyone else has it at -2.5
Wait. Let the Laker love flow some more. I can feel Kobe Bryant's anxiety rising by the hour. He knows his reputation will take a terrible beating if he doesn't win this championship, and the "best closer in the game" is going to be pressing even more. I don't expect him to be denied in the end, but I expect this series victory to be as difficult as possible for him.
Wait. Let the Laker love flow some more. I can feel Kobe Bryant's anxiety rising by the hour. He knows his reputation will take a terrible beating if he doesn't win this championship, and the "best closer in the game" is going to be pressing even more. I don't expect him to be denied in the end, but I expect this series victory to be as difficult as possible for him.
I agree completely with what you said there, I wrote this in someone else's thread earlier today:
All we hear in the media is how badly Kobe wants to win that elusive fourth ring. How it consumes his entire existence. But nobody has mentioned the possibility that maybe he wants it too much. Sometimes wanting it too much can do more harm than good. If the Magic lose this series, someone like Dwight Howard will surely be extremely disappointed and upset. He'll probably be down for a couple days, but after that he'll move on with things and be alright. I'm not getting that same feeling with Kobe right now. If he doesn't get the job done and lead the Lakers to a title, it almost seems like he might not be able to go on with the rest of his life. When Kobe turned the ball over late to Pietrus last night, the reaction on his face afterwards was like his world had just ended. If I was working for the Lakers I'd slip a chill pill into Kobe's pre-game meal. At this point he needs it.
Wait. Let the Laker love flow some more. I can feel Kobe Bryant's anxiety rising by the hour. He knows his reputation will take a terrible beating if he doesn't win this championship, and the "best closer in the game" is going to be pressing even more. I don't expect him to be denied in the end, but I expect this series victory to be as difficult as possible for him.
I agree completely with what you said there, I wrote this in someone else's thread earlier today:
All we hear in the media is how badly Kobe wants to win that elusive fourth ring. How it consumes his entire existence. But nobody has mentioned the possibility that maybe he wants it too much. Sometimes wanting it too much can do more harm than good. If the Magic lose this series, someone like Dwight Howard will surely be extremely disappointed and upset. He'll probably be down for a couple days, but after that he'll move on with things and be alright. I'm not getting that same feeling with Kobe right now. If he doesn't get the job done and lead the Lakers to a title, it almost seems like he might not be able to go on with the rest of his life. When Kobe turned the ball over late to Pietrus last night, the reaction on his face afterwards was like his world had just ended. If I was working for the Lakers I'd slip a chill pill into Kobe's pre-game meal. At this point he needs it.
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
One of the most overlooked asepcts of gambling. Those who are new to the game take notes as MrB speaks ![]()
I don't consider the Magic in Game 3 a pointspread loser at all. For anyone who considered betting on the Magic, this was a win or a push. Those, who for whatever reason, wound up laying -4.5 effectively beat themselves. I've said this many times on here before - no matter how much you may like a game, you cannot afford to bet BAD numbers and thus open the door for your book to snake you by half a point when he had no business even having the opportunity. Picking winners and overcoming the vig is tough enough. You can't afford to give away games by taking a point the worst of it. As much as I liked Orlando in Game 3, if I had been kidnapped on Sunday night and not freed until a half hour before gametime (when -4.5 was the universal line), I WOULD NOT HAVE MADE THE BET. I would have taken my chances with in-game wagering or a halftime wager, but ain't no way I would agree to lay -4.5 on a game where -3.5 and -4 were widely available for up to 36 hours after the line was first released. I would never let myself lose in that way. In that situation, in my opinion, no matter how in love you are with the game, you have to pass. You just can't leave the door wide open like that for your book to get lucky and beat you with +4.5.
Remember, the idea is to stick the bookie with a bad number, not the other way around. Ever.
One of the most overlooked asepcts of gambling. Those who are new to the game take notes as MrB speaks ![]()
As soon as the Magic finished off Cleveland, I thought about the Finals for about two minutes and my first square impulse was "Lakers in six." Then I started doing my reading and saw that I had plenty of company in figuring a 6-game Laker victory. That wasn't a good sign. Then President Obama again made the mistake of publicly picking one team over another (which I feel he should never do) when he said "Lakers in six." Now I had strong evidence that my initial lean was square. Then on ESPN.com, I saw a poll that revealed that 46% of respondents picked the Lakers in six. At that point, I began considering every possibility except the Lakers in six.
The most common thinking was that the Lakers would take the first two, lose badly in Game 3, bounce back and take Game 4, mail-in Game 5, then finish things up at home in Game 6. Well, that's too convenient, and it gives little respect to the Magic, treating them as if their one significant victory would come in Game 3 and that's it. I think the Lakers would have been better off laying down last night, then setting themselves up for their usual big bounceback effort in Game 4. That would be L.A.'s usual M.O., but instead they collectively chose to put forth a serious effort in Game 3 against what they knew would be Orlando's most desperate effort, and likely Orlando's best game so far in this series. I don't think that was a good idea. The Lakers gave it a great shot, but it didn't work, and now (and you can call me crazy for thinking this way) they've denied themselves the usual motivation of playing much sharper off a lackadaisical half-effort.
The Lakers bounced back successfully off of poor efforts against Houston in Games 1, 4, and 6, and again against Denver in Games 2 and 4. It probably wasn't hard to get extremely focused for the next game after bad losses like those, what with so much room to improve, but where do they go from here after giving it all they had against the Magic in Game 3 and coming up short? The Lakers seem like a team that needs to get beat up in the court of public opinion in order to get serious. Well, they're not going to get beat up for last night's strong game. They're probably not going to be able to summon up an effort any better than that one, which means Game 4 is up for grabs, with the edge in my opinion going to the home team that's won 80% of their home games this season.
To answer your question, hustle man, before I go and get even further long-winded and nonsensical, I'm thinking more and more that the Lakers won't win any of the games in Orlando, which contrasts with what I believed as recently as a couple days ago, that they would definetely get at least one, most likely Game 4. However, I also believe that if they return to L.A. down 3 games to 2, they will win both Games 6 and 7. I can't see Orlando finishing them off. The Magic have shown a few times that they can get tight late in a big game, and that just doesn't happen to the Lakers.
I love this post, especially the bolded part. Lots to learn from that rationale and reasoning in sizing up a series. Have you ever considered that this series might be over in 5?
The performance the Magic gave us was phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. Quite possibly their magnum opus of the season. Yet, it didn't even get the large majority of Magic backers a cover!
I appreciate your comments about the Lakers and the effort they exerted last night. Definitely true and definitely a factor. But from the Orlando Magic perspective don't you think they're thinking to themselves and saying: wow, we executed nearly flawlessly for 48 minutes and we basically won by a possession? Seriously? I would contend that the Lakers to the Magic's best shot in Game 3, not the other way around.
Now, our conversation has shifted from the "Scowl" to the "Does Kobe have enough gas left for the 4th?" How fast perceptions change. He certainly took some terrible, forced shots in the 2nd half. BUT his 1st half was arguably one of the best halfs of basketball in his career. He had his team down a couple possessions at half time when the other team shot a record percentage from the field. He single-handedly did it. And he knew it. So, he went out there in the 2nd half, thinking, "This is going to be my signature game in my championship run." Hence, his performance in the 2nd half. Additionally, the fatigue factor of the 4th quarter was in large part due to his back-breaking efforts in the 1st half.
I'm no Kobe apologist. He's a bastard, and I hate him. But he's the mothafuckin Mamba for a reason. I'm not going to go through all this "Closer" nonsense. But Gasol was visibly and verbally upset after the game. He has enough clout and talent to talk Kobe off his masochistic ledge and get him back to playing team ball, which, as we all know, is when the Lakers thrive. The genesis of their resurgence came when Gasol entered the picture, and passing became a viable option for Kobe.
Seriously, I think that's what you get in Game 4. As for the Magic, if they duplicate their Game 3 performance, hats off to them, I deserve to lose my money.
As soon as the Magic finished off Cleveland, I thought about the Finals for about two minutes and my first square impulse was "Lakers in six." Then I started doing my reading and saw that I had plenty of company in figuring a 6-game Laker victory. That wasn't a good sign. Then President Obama again made the mistake of publicly picking one team over another (which I feel he should never do) when he said "Lakers in six." Now I had strong evidence that my initial lean was square. Then on ESPN.com, I saw a poll that revealed that 46% of respondents picked the Lakers in six. At that point, I began considering every possibility except the Lakers in six.
The most common thinking was that the Lakers would take the first two, lose badly in Game 3, bounce back and take Game 4, mail-in Game 5, then finish things up at home in Game 6. Well, that's too convenient, and it gives little respect to the Magic, treating them as if their one significant victory would come in Game 3 and that's it. I think the Lakers would have been better off laying down last night, then setting themselves up for their usual big bounceback effort in Game 4. That would be L.A.'s usual M.O., but instead they collectively chose to put forth a serious effort in Game 3 against what they knew would be Orlando's most desperate effort, and likely Orlando's best game so far in this series. I don't think that was a good idea. The Lakers gave it a great shot, but it didn't work, and now (and you can call me crazy for thinking this way) they've denied themselves the usual motivation of playing much sharper off a lackadaisical half-effort.
The Lakers bounced back successfully off of poor efforts against Houston in Games 1, 4, and 6, and again against Denver in Games 2 and 4. It probably wasn't hard to get extremely focused for the next game after bad losses like those, what with so much room to improve, but where do they go from here after giving it all they had against the Magic in Game 3 and coming up short? The Lakers seem like a team that needs to get beat up in the court of public opinion in order to get serious. Well, they're not going to get beat up for last night's strong game. They're probably not going to be able to summon up an effort any better than that one, which means Game 4 is up for grabs, with the edge in my opinion going to the home team that's won 80% of their home games this season.
To answer your question, hustle man, before I go and get even further long-winded and nonsensical, I'm thinking more and more that the Lakers won't win any of the games in Orlando, which contrasts with what I believed as recently as a couple days ago, that they would definetely get at least one, most likely Game 4. However, I also believe that if they return to L.A. down 3 games to 2, they will win both Games 6 and 7. I can't see Orlando finishing them off. The Magic have shown a few times that they can get tight late in a big game, and that just doesn't happen to the Lakers.
I love this post, especially the bolded part. Lots to learn from that rationale and reasoning in sizing up a series. Have you ever considered that this series might be over in 5?
The performance the Magic gave us was phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. Quite possibly their magnum opus of the season. Yet, it didn't even get the large majority of Magic backers a cover!
I appreciate your comments about the Lakers and the effort they exerted last night. Definitely true and definitely a factor. But from the Orlando Magic perspective don't you think they're thinking to themselves and saying: wow, we executed nearly flawlessly for 48 minutes and we basically won by a possession? Seriously? I would contend that the Lakers to the Magic's best shot in Game 3, not the other way around.
Now, our conversation has shifted from the "Scowl" to the "Does Kobe have enough gas left for the 4th?" How fast perceptions change. He certainly took some terrible, forced shots in the 2nd half. BUT his 1st half was arguably one of the best halfs of basketball in his career. He had his team down a couple possessions at half time when the other team shot a record percentage from the field. He single-handedly did it. And he knew it. So, he went out there in the 2nd half, thinking, "This is going to be my signature game in my championship run." Hence, his performance in the 2nd half. Additionally, the fatigue factor of the 4th quarter was in large part due to his back-breaking efforts in the 1st half.
I'm no Kobe apologist. He's a bastard, and I hate him. But he's the mothafuckin Mamba for a reason. I'm not going to go through all this "Closer" nonsense. But Gasol was visibly and verbally upset after the game. He has enough clout and talent to talk Kobe off his masochistic ledge and get him back to playing team ball, which, as we all know, is when the Lakers thrive. The genesis of their resurgence came when Gasol entered the picture, and passing became a viable option for Kobe.
Seriously, I think that's what you get in Game 4. As for the Magic, if they duplicate their Game 3 performance, hats off to them, I deserve to lose my money.
I love this post, especially the bolded part. Lots to learn from that rationale and reasoning in sizing up a series. Have you ever considered that this series might be over in 5?
The performance the Magic gave us was phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. Quite possibly their magnum opus of the season. Yet, it didn't even get the large majority of Magic backers a cover!
I appreciate your comments about the Lakers and the effort they exerted last night. Definitely true and definitely a factor. But from the Orlando Magic perspective don't you think they're thinking to themselves and saying: wow, we executed nearly flawlessly for 48 minutes and we basically won by a possession? Seriously? I would contend that the Lakers to the Magic's best shot in Game 3, not the other way around.
Now, our conversation has shifted from the "Scowl" to the "Does Kobe have enough gas left for the 4th?" How fast perceptions change. He certainly took some terrible, forced shots in the 2nd half. BUT his 1st half was arguably one of the best halfs of basketball in his career. He had his team down a couple possessions at half time when the other team shot a record percentage from the field. He single-handedly did it. And he knew it. So, he went out there in the 2nd half, thinking, "This is going to be my signature game in my championship run." Hence, his performance in the 2nd half. Additionally, the fatigue factor of the 4th quarter was in large part due to his back-breaking efforts in the 1st half.
I'm no Kobe apologist. He's a bastard, and I hate him. But he's the mothafuckin Mamba for a reason. I'm not going to go through all this "Closer" nonsense. But Gasol was visibly and verbally upset after the game. He has enough clout and talent to talk Kobe off his masochistic ledge and get him back to playing team ball, which, as we all know, is when the Lakers thrive. The genesis of their resurgence came when Gasol entered the picture, and passing became a viable option for Kobe.
Seriously, I think that's what you get in Game 4. As for the Magic, if they duplicate their Game 3 performance, hats off to them, I deserve to lose my money.
And that's because the Lakers played a pretty damn good game themselves, as Bator said. The Magic tried to pull away in the fourth quarter, the lead got to as high as nine, but the Lakers were pretty much matching Orlando shot-for-shot. Everytime it looked like they were going to pull away and blow it open, someone on L.A. came through with a big shot to keep them in it. I believe the Lakers made 10 of their first 13 FG's in the 4th quarter. Nobody on L.A. shot the ball poorly. Jordan Farmar, who is usually atrocious, had 11 pts. on 4-6 shooting. That included a tough fadeaway from just inside the line and a tricky leaner off glass. Gasol was 9-11, Odom was 4-6, Arizas was 5-13. So yes the Magic had an unreal shooting night, but the Lakers were no slouches either.
I love this post, especially the bolded part. Lots to learn from that rationale and reasoning in sizing up a series. Have you ever considered that this series might be over in 5?
The performance the Magic gave us was phenomenal. Absolutely phenomenal. Quite possibly their magnum opus of the season. Yet, it didn't even get the large majority of Magic backers a cover!
I appreciate your comments about the Lakers and the effort they exerted last night. Definitely true and definitely a factor. But from the Orlando Magic perspective don't you think they're thinking to themselves and saying: wow, we executed nearly flawlessly for 48 minutes and we basically won by a possession? Seriously? I would contend that the Lakers to the Magic's best shot in Game 3, not the other way around.
Now, our conversation has shifted from the "Scowl" to the "Does Kobe have enough gas left for the 4th?" How fast perceptions change. He certainly took some terrible, forced shots in the 2nd half. BUT his 1st half was arguably one of the best halfs of basketball in his career. He had his team down a couple possessions at half time when the other team shot a record percentage from the field. He single-handedly did it. And he knew it. So, he went out there in the 2nd half, thinking, "This is going to be my signature game in my championship run." Hence, his performance in the 2nd half. Additionally, the fatigue factor of the 4th quarter was in large part due to his back-breaking efforts in the 1st half.
I'm no Kobe apologist. He's a bastard, and I hate him. But he's the mothafuckin Mamba for a reason. I'm not going to go through all this "Closer" nonsense. But Gasol was visibly and verbally upset after the game. He has enough clout and talent to talk Kobe off his masochistic ledge and get him back to playing team ball, which, as we all know, is when the Lakers thrive. The genesis of their resurgence came when Gasol entered the picture, and passing became a viable option for Kobe.
Seriously, I think that's what you get in Game 4. As for the Magic, if they duplicate their Game 3 performance, hats off to them, I deserve to lose my money.
And that's because the Lakers played a pretty damn good game themselves, as Bator said. The Magic tried to pull away in the fourth quarter, the lead got to as high as nine, but the Lakers were pretty much matching Orlando shot-for-shot. Everytime it looked like they were going to pull away and blow it open, someone on L.A. came through with a big shot to keep them in it. I believe the Lakers made 10 of their first 13 FG's in the 4th quarter. Nobody on L.A. shot the ball poorly. Jordan Farmar, who is usually atrocious, had 11 pts. on 4-6 shooting. That included a tough fadeaway from just inside the line and a tricky leaner off glass. Gasol was 9-11, Odom was 4-6, Arizas was 5-13. So yes the Magic had an unreal shooting night, but the Lakers were no slouches either.
The Lakers did have an outstanding game. I readily acknowledge that. But come on, it was nowhere near the epic game that the Magic played. The Magic had 5 guys with at least 18 points. FIVE!
The Lakers have reached 100 points in every game this series. The Magic, at least defensively, fundamentally don't match-up well with the Lakers (not that many teams do, even though the Cavs probably would match-up better than anyone else).
The Lakers did have an outstanding game. I readily acknowledge that. But come on, it was nowhere near the epic game that the Magic played. The Magic had 5 guys with at least 18 points. FIVE!
The Lakers have reached 100 points in every game this series. The Magic, at least defensively, fundamentally don't match-up well with the Lakers (not that many teams do, even though the Cavs probably would match-up better than anyone else).
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