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#1
A lot of gamblers will mistakenly tell you that regular season results are meaningless when handicapping playoff games, but those guys are usually the ones who have no idea how to go about doing any research, not to mention probably being too lazy to bother. The fact is, regular season results are a valuable body of evidence in revealing the true personality of a team. And over an 82-game NBA regular season, certain tendencies, both good and bad, become so obvious in their repetition that they practically wave to you like an old friend. And if you can find tendencies that continue into the playoffs, or better yet - become even stronger - well, now you've really got something. Luckily for us, this year's NBA Finals pits two teams that have enjoyed stability and success for at least several seasons, and over the last two seasons, few major roster changes (with the exception of the rigged trade for Pau Gasol, who played in 59 games for the Lakers last season).
Both of these teams have developed a distinct character. Everyone is more familiar with that of the Lakers because they get much more media coverage than any other team in the league. Orlando's is more of a secret to the casual fan or bettor, but the Magic have quietly become the most dangerous team in basketball when seeking revenge, and no other team rights the ship faster following a loss than the Orlando Magic.
I hope the "experts" on ESPN don't harp on this today, but as most of us around here know, the Magic are pretty good at home following a loss. Last season, the 52-30 Magic played 18 home games following a loss and went 14-4. This season, the team that won 59 games went a perfect 12-0 at home off a loss (8-4 ATS), and in the playoffs they've played even better, not only winning all five games but covering the spread each time, too. Here are the five games:
April 22 - After losing Game 1 to the Sixers, the Magic, laying 8.5, won 96-87
May 8th - After losing Game 2 in Boston, the Magic, laying 4.5, won 117-96
May 14th - After losing Game 5 in Boston, the Magic, laying 7, won 83-75
May 24th - After losing Game 2 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 1.5, won 99-89
May 30th - After losing Game 5 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 2, won 103-90
So for those taking the Lakers on the moneyline, your task is simple. All you need is for your team (famous for picking and choosing their better efforts), to win on the home floor of a team that's won 31 of their last 35 home games when playing off a loss. All you need is for your team to do it against a team that hasn't lost once in this spot this season in 17 tries, and who's won those 17 games by an average of 15.7 points per game.
By the way, the Lakers are a poor 1-3 over the last two playoff seasons on the road when leading a series two games to none, winning only in Denver last year against a Nuggets team they own. This is further evidence of the fact that the Lakers usually don't come to play when their homecourt advantage is not threatened. In fact, between this year and last, the Lakers are a money-burning 4-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs when they have the homecourt advantage in the series. But when they had it, but then lost it, they're a solid 2-0 SU & ATS in trying to regain it. If the Lakers had lost Game 2 to the Magic, I might very well be on them tonight, but they lucked out, so it's a whole different story for Game 3.
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