IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

 (A 2 ton achor weighing team down )Ha, ha funny stuff Bator but so true...............

He wasn't a good coach at first or so the experts claimed  then when they beat Lakers he went from not being good to being great according to the same experts.

When they finally admitted they were wrong they were wrong again with that admission.

Seeing some online chatter about Nuggets and the injuries they have had. They supposedly got out to like a 20-5 start then hit by injuries.

Here's the real deal .................

Let's  look at the 5 starters as measured by each teams top 5 players in ave minutes played per game.

1. Rockets Ave of 77.6 games played in the season.

Wow pretty impressive as the players player almost all games. Dont see that much today.

2. Twolves 74.2

3. Knicks  72.8

4. Spurs 70.6

5. Pistons 69.4

6. Celtics 63.8

7. OKC 63.2

8. Nuggets 58.4

So there is some truth to this theory.

But wait ..........

How many games did each teams best player play as measured by PER if 2 players are close I ave the 2  ........

1. Rocket 75

1. Knicks 75

3. Celtics 71

4. OKC 68

5. Pistons 67

6. Nuggets 65

7. Spurs 64

8. Twolves 61

Lots of talk how Joker missed so many games. He did not miss any significant amount more then other best players with a few exceptions.

Give him only 3 more games and he is tied for 4th.

But hold on ............. let's look at the triplets, the top 3 best players as measured by PER.....

1. Pistons 69

2. Spurs 68

3. Nuggets 64.7

4. OKC 56.7

I did not run all teams only teams they may play and no. 1 Seed in east.

Now let's be honest, does that look like such a significant difference that one could use all these injuries for this team ?

If anything injuries would fit OKC better then the Nuggets but yet look how OKC ranks compared to the Nuggets.

Let's take one final look at the 6 and 7th players ave minutes played per game.

In some cases I could of used 8th players if minutes were close to even.......

1. Spurs 79.5

2. Celtics 63.5

3. Nuggets 58

4. OKC 52

5. Pistons 51.7

6. Twolves 50.5

7. Rockets 47

7. Knicks 46

There could be trades I am missing that affected some teams with players joining the team later in season then obviously they'll have less games on the team.

But people want to use injuries as an excuse for Nuggets. Does not hold water in my book.

The Spurs appear to be one of the healthier teams when we include staring 5 and the 6 and 7th man and triplets.

While OKC seems to be one of the more Injuried teams. They may be better then the ratings suggest.

Especially rebounding wise. The 2 bigs ave 58 games played. And the triplets have easily played the fewest games.

I did not run Celtics with Tatum play8ng only 16 games they would be lowest but I am trying g to gage Nuggets chances to win West. Or beat Spurs in 2cd round using injuries as a reason they don't rate as strong.

I could give Nuggets a better rating VS Spurs as Spurs seem one of healthiest overall.

But not VS OKC or the Celtics in the finals.

To me injuries don't cut it unless you want to use that excuse VS Spurs.

Looking back over history what I have found is....

It is very difficult for a team to go from not wining a single playoff series within the past 2 seasons with the teams 2 best players or 3 best, the triplets to making the finals or winning the finals.

If we look at Magic winning title his rookie year.

The year before Lakers with Karrem, Norm Nixon and Jamal Wilkes did win a series and these 3 were core group Magic jound to win the title.

while Celtics with rookie Bird did not make the playoffs.  So adding Bird did not help them win title untill the next year. Celtics did win a playoff series Birds rookie year.

Duncan, same story.  Spurs did not make the playoffs the year before or 2 years before they did not win a series.

Duncan's rookie year they win a playoff series then won a title the next season with David Robinson who was his sidekick when they won the title.

So looking at the Spurs, they have not won a single playoff series.  They have not even made the playoffs so they have not even played one playoff series let-alone win one.

So based on this and how healthy the Spurs were this season VS OKC I now would consider OKC definately the team to beat.

This also fits the Pistons, they too have not won a playoff series in the past 2 seasons.

I'd have to favor Celtics to win the East. 

The one downside to saying injuried teams could be stronger then their year end ratings is lack of chemistry with the team.

You can say a team could be better with all starters back but are they a finely tuned machine yet.

Playing together more often can create a better oiled machine.

Tatum just talked about this, saying it is frustrating because he is not back to his old self yet.

Are the Celtics going to be a finely tuned machine ?

Will Brown continue with such a ridiculous  high usage ?

Celtics did improve after the break in both PR's but how much  was It Tatum with only 16 games played ?

The one thing I do think is the new center the Celtics have is the best big man this team has had in the Brown,Tatum era.

He fits in perfect for this team I think. Strong rebounder and good inside defender.

This is the best rebounding team Celtics have had in years.

Not like Porzinges staying out on the perimeter shooting  3's.

The tractor trailer  was good when healthy. 

They don't need offense, but good inside presence with stronger rebounding and he files the role very well.

Sunday......... game 1's

my lines .....

Celtics -12.53 over 76ers

Pistons -11.09 over Magic

OKC -14.67 over Suns

Spurs -10.92 over Blazers ........ full season

Spurs -15.67 over Blazers ......after the break

The one play my lines suggests is Pistons over the Magic.

Yesterday  my lines had one play with Knicks over Hawks.

I won't take action  just yet.

Some interesting things, one is possible the book shaded the line on Magic coz beating the Hornets pretty good.

So public may like the Magic catching alot of points since they thought Hornets were so strong and Magic handled them easily.

Another is Hawks coming in hot but my line judged both teams by season long stats and the season long was correct not the hot down the stretch stats.

So that brings up the Spurs. 

Look at my full season line, spot on with the books line.

It sure does appear the books are not overreacting to the Spurs very strong play after the break.

So it will be very interesting  to see if Spurs continue their very strong play or the books line is more correct then my lines after the break Spurs line.

These hot teams are very hit or miss in the playoffs. Overall these hot teams do well sometimes and other times not so well as we saw with the Hornets and Hawks in the 1st game anyways.

Hawks will have a chance to avenge that loss in game 2 as they don't need to win both game 1 & game 2 only one of those 2 so possible the Hot Hawks will still continue their hot play.

Teams over 5% shooting efficiency margin  are 7-2 ATS in their first playoff game.

This teams come out and win big many times in their very first playoff game.

It works with teams over 4% as well so the sample size is not so small.

OKC -15 (-120) over Suns --- 1.2 units

Remember last year ? .....With OKC over 5% ?

51 pt big blowout win in their 1st playoff game.

Did not see anyone mention this. Not here or online.

Will they turn it around just like the Michigan Wolverines did going from worst to first in just 2 years.  Lets not forget the Pistons finished with the worst overall record in NBA BTB seasons before reaching the playoffs last year.  And now a #1 seed.  Like you I have my doubts but don't think I can jump in front of this freight train.  Pistons core may be still a little too young.  I favor the Celtics out of east right now and even think the Cavs have a chance.  Lets see how 1st round goes.

I like the Pistons tonight.  After making the playoffs last year for the first time in forever they went 0-3 at home last year against the Knicks losing in 6.  I would say they are hungry for a home playoff win.  And don't they have to have a little chip on their shoulder being the 1 seed but only the 3rd best odds to come out of east. 

The Magic have played 8 road playoff game is the last 2 years counting Philly this year.  They lost all 8 games and 7 of them were by 9+ points.

@Stress

 Very good points, you almost talked me into some action...........

Going 0-3 last year and now having a strong team they have to be very motivated to get this first game big.

I'll stick with my methods but will likely regret  not taking the action.

1-0 ATS, won 1 unit

OKC does it again, another 1st playoff game big blowout win. 

Remember  what came after that big win last year ?

Spurs score fell almost perfectly between the books and my line's full season and my line's after the break line , crazy.

As I mentioned if you average those 2 together would give you a better line then only after the break.  you would of had the final score.

Pistons could not match Magic's intensity and Magic shot almost 50% from the field.

I doubt they do that game 2.

Mon , game 2's............

my lines .......

Cavs -4.98 over Raps

Knicks -7.94 over Hawks

Nuggets -5.69 over Twolves

Raps off a SU loss and ATS loss and a play on my lines . Raps is the play tonight.

My lines has Knicks but off a SU win & ATS win I'll pass. Tonight we will know more about this hot Hawks team.

I see the line edging up to 7, if it does I will grap the Twolves +7.

Raps +9 (-115) over Cavs --- 1.15 units

theclaw, you made a great play on the Thunder in Game 1. That game got bet up from -13.5 to -17.5 and there wasn't nothin' the books could do to avoid the burial. 

 <-----bookie cash

9.5 now… gonna buy a point to 10.5… fingers crossed.  

Good work, you post the best info on this forum and understand the ebbs and flows of playoff ball 

Public betting favs at historic rates this year and last few years won’t last. On the raps and all bounce back sides tonight 

 theclaw

Yea I should of waited got the better line 

Twolves +8 over Nuggets --- 1.1 units

Good call on minny… I had nugs ml in 2-3 parlays… they faded into the night.  

Nice score getting the 10.5 on Raps ................

We'll  see what this Nuggets team is made of now. They need at least one game in Minnesota. 

1-1 ATS, lost .1 units

Playoffs --- 2-1 ATS, won .9 units

Raps losing by 1 pt, I didn't  see the last possession whether Raps made a shot to make the cover close or Cavs made a shot to cover.

Raps did close it to 7 to start the 4th but couldn't  get it done.

2 Road teams did break through with Hawks and Twolves gaining home court with game 2 wins.

So maybe Hawks are the real deal with their play after Young trade.

We will get a chance to see how these Nuggets respond.

My Lines ................... game 2's

Celtics -12.53 over 76ers

LA -1.57 over Rockets

Spurs -10.92 over Blazers ...... full season

Spurs -15.67 .......... after the break

Spurs -13.3 .................ave the 2

Spurs off a 13 pt win, just covering. When we consider the various lines it'd  have to be Spurs or pass.

Celtics off a 32 pt big blowout win, and my line favoring the 76ers.

However with Tatum playing only 16 games Celtics are likely better then my line suggests. 

If the line were to continue to climb to 16 or better id consider a half unit small play on 76ers. 

Rockets need this game , if KD plays my line considering LA injuries is to risky a play but I'd  take Rockets ml parlay with Pistons ml . -125 at one of  my books.

KD was practicing and seemed to be moving ok from what I heard. 

Brown's usage in game 1 was again too high, 34.8%

Tatum delivered like a 32.2 PER

Queta had like a 33.3 PER.

These are not sustainable  long term.

Great stuff, TC.  Thanks for all of your time and effort.

In their last 12 PO matchups CLV is 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS vs. TOR.  I don't know what that portends for Game #3 since CLV is burdened with laying 3.5 points on the road and their DEF is not very good (Massey has CLV's DEF rated #16).

Good luck going forward.