13 of the past 17 teams to win the title were ranked 53.5 or better.
Since 1980 of the 46 teams to win the title 8 were below both a 6 rating in PR I and a 53.5 rating in PR II.
But 4 of those 8 were defending champs who have a strong history of regressing after their championship year.
So only 4 teams in 46 years could win the title below both 6 and 53.5. And remember the 2023 Nuggets were one of those 4 playing the weakest group of teams that I charted going back to 1997.
And very likely going back much further.
Bulls played the highest rated group of teams.
Lebron played a very weak group of teams while making the finals. Many teams under 5 and 4.
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POWER RATING II ....................
1. Pistons 55.2
2. Spurs 55.01
3. Celtics 55
4. Knicks 54.91
5. Rockets 54.85
6. OKC 54.71
7. Nuggets 52
8. Twolves 51.75
13 of the past 17 teams to win the title were ranked 53.5 or better.
Since 1980 of the 46 teams to win the title 8 were below both a 6 rating in PR I and a 53.5 rating in PR II.
But 4 of those 8 were defending champs who have a strong history of regressing after their championship year.
So only 4 teams in 46 years could win the title below both 6 and 53.5. And remember the 2023 Nuggets were one of those 4 playing the weakest group of teams that I charted going back to 1997.
And very likely going back much further.
Bulls played the highest rated group of teams.
Lebron played a very weak group of teams while making the finals. Many teams under 5 and 4.
Lakers -1.57 over Rockets ....with Luka and Reaves
How many pts is Luka and Reaves worth ? With a 5.5 line I'd say it is a pass.
The one play appears to be Knicks over the Hawks.
Maybe the Hawks have played better in the 2cd half especially after getting rid of Young.
I'd have to look more into that. But I'd pass on game 1 and back the Knicks in game 2 depending if they lose or fail to cover game 1 and depending the line.
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MY LINES ............
Nuggets -5.69 over Twolves
Knicks -7.94 over Hawks
Cavs -4.98 over Raptors
Lakers -1.57 over Rockets ....with Luka and Reaves
How many pts is Luka and Reaves worth ? With a 5.5 line I'd say it is a pass.
The one play appears to be Knicks over the Hawks.
Maybe the Hawks have played better in the 2cd half especially after getting rid of Young.
I'd have to look more into that. But I'd pass on game 1 and back the Knicks in game 2 depending if they lose or fail to cover game 1 and depending the line.
There is an alien out there swatting away everthing in site.
Spurs defensive shooting efficiency %, which includes 2 pt shots, 3 pt, FT and TO. The ability to defend these shots to limit lower shooting % numbers, the ability to do this while not sending opps to the line especially the best shooting opps, and the ability to generate TO's while defending these shots.
Spurs 48.67 %........ full season.
Last 27 games after the all-star break ....48.05%. Ranks only 3rd.
Pistons rank 2cd 47.37%
OKC ranks 1st 46.33% historically strong defensive team. Over 1% better then 2cd best and 1.7% better then 3rd best.
No other team is below 48.7%
If there is any alien defensive team in this years playoffs it belongs to OKC.
Nuggets bring up the rear of the teams i Posted PR's in
Just over 51%.
While LA is like 50.85%, easily the 2 weakest defensive teams of the top 10 teams.
I did do a brief look up of how champions rank defensively and they rank very strong each year I looked up. But need to get some numbers to help us understand how much this matters.
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Who's got the best defense ?
There is an alien out there swatting away everthing in site.
Spurs defensive shooting efficiency %, which includes 2 pt shots, 3 pt, FT and TO. The ability to defend these shots to limit lower shooting % numbers, the ability to do this while not sending opps to the line especially the best shooting opps, and the ability to generate TO's while defending these shots.
Spurs 48.67 %........ full season.
Last 27 games after the all-star break ....48.05%. Ranks only 3rd.
Pistons rank 2cd 47.37%
OKC ranks 1st 46.33% historically strong defensive team. Over 1% better then 2cd best and 1.7% better then 3rd best.
No other team is below 48.7%
If there is any alien defensive team in this years playoffs it belongs to OKC.
Nuggets bring up the rear of the teams i Posted PR's in
Just over 51%.
While LA is like 50.85%, easily the 2 weakest defensive teams of the top 10 teams.
I did do a brief look up of how champions rank defensively and they rank very strong each year I looked up. But need to get some numbers to help us understand how much this matters.
I did not run Spurs numbers after the break. Had I done that not only would they be no. 1 but on an all-time great rating.
However, that would only be over 27 games not sustaining that level for 82 games. Doubt they could of done that.
Based on those 27 games the Spurs would be right there with the Bulls as one of only 2 teams that could produce a very strong shooting efficiency differential while at the same time be very strong at rebounding.
If the Spurs are capable of this over 82 games in the future we may be looking at another Bulls dynasty type team.
As for the Pistons who I believe are being vastly overlooked the one issue I have with them is that have not won a single playoff series yet with their core group of key players.
From what I looked up it is not very common for a team to make the Finals having never won a single playoff series in the 2 seasons before being ranked no. 1 in my PR'S.
I do think they are going to surprise alot of people though who are doubting them.
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Pistons rank no. 1 in PR II.
I did not run Spurs numbers after the break. Had I done that not only would they be no. 1 but on an all-time great rating.
However, that would only be over 27 games not sustaining that level for 82 games. Doubt they could of done that.
Based on those 27 games the Spurs would be right there with the Bulls as one of only 2 teams that could produce a very strong shooting efficiency differential while at the same time be very strong at rebounding.
If the Spurs are capable of this over 82 games in the future we may be looking at another Bulls dynasty type team.
As for the Pistons who I believe are being vastly overlooked the one issue I have with them is that have not won a single playoff series yet with their core group of key players.
From what I looked up it is not very common for a team to make the Finals having never won a single playoff series in the 2 seasons before being ranked no. 1 in my PR'S.
I do think they are going to surprise alot of people though who are doubting them.
There are 4 teams with the common denominators of past NBA champs.
OKC, Spurs, Pistons and Celtics.
These teams when playing a team without the common denominators win about 65 % of those series.
This based on more recent history.
No Nuggets, No LA, no Twolves in sight.
It was much higher % in the past. Possible there could have been a regression recently or just the results of today's era of 3 pt shooting, spreading the court ball.
These teams mostly only lose to each other .
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There are 4 teams with the common denominators of past NBA champs.
OKC, Spurs, Pistons and Celtics.
These teams when playing a team without the common denominators win about 65 % of those series.
This based on more recent history.
No Nuggets, No LA, no Twolves in sight.
It was much higher % in the past. Possible there could have been a regression recently or just the results of today's era of 3 pt shooting, spreading the court ball.
Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Power Rating I ................... 1a Spurs 11.68 ....... but only final 27 games 1b Okc 10.51 2. Spurs 7.83 .... full season 3. Pistons 7.19 4. Celtics 6.94 5. Knicks 5.87 6. Nuggets 5.31 7. Rockets 4.81 8. Twolves 3.62 9 . Cavs 3.49 Here's the deal ............... 12 of the past 15 years the team won the title was 4th or better. 3 exceptions..... 2011 Mavs 7th only because of choke job by LeBron. 2020 LA 6th during covid when players could opt out with no fans in seats. 2023 Nuggets 5th but was weakest group of playoff teams with no team rated over 6 or over 53.5 in PR II which is a rarity. Nuggets beat the lowest ranked group of teams to win title ave rating of 2.34. 2023 is one of only 2 season that the lowest ranked team in the playoffs (16th of 16 teams) according to PR I made the finals. 11 of 15 years team won title was over a 6 rating All top 4 teams are rated over 6. If you think the Nuggets or Knicks or Twolves or Lakers will win the title you are highly likely going to be disappointed.
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