IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

Spurs off 1 big blowout 29 pt win, not a spot to fade the Spurs. In a closeout game with the Spurs clearly the better team are the team to back here.

With these 2 teams off 4 overs but not over by large amounts. Only 1 of those over went over by double digits.

3 straight overs scoring 223 pts exactly in each game, crazy. The book puts out the same line not really jacking it up that much from the other prior games.

I still think the Under is the play here in a closeout game for Spurs.

Pistons +4.5 over Cavs --- 1.1 units

Pistons/Cavs UNDER 210.5 --- 1.1 units

Spurs -5 (-120) over Twolves --- 2.4 units

Spurs/Twolves UNDER 218.5 --- 1.1 units

Yes, ESPN displayed the fact that DET had a 96.8% chance of winning SU with a 9-point lead and just 3 minutes remaining.

I had a bunch of queries that said that DET should win SU, all with a higher winning percentage that would make DET a positive expected value at -172 (Heritage).  I did decide to pass on the game and, unusually for me, I decided to watch late in the game.  I turned on the TF at a bad point for us CLV fans - DET was in the midst of their 12-0 run.

As I have humbly admitted on many occasions, I am not a skilled observer.  However, it did seem as is DET choked late rather than CLV suddenly played hard-nosed DEF.

Good luck tonight.

DET did not choke tonight.  Congratulations on banking both early bets.

Goid stuff dog, I agree more like Pistons choke-job then Cavs playing well ............

Yea they rolled back after that choke-job, was sweating it out on the Under. That could of went either way for sure ..............

3-1, won 2.9 units

I will have alot of info coming up on the OKC/Spurs matchup.

OKC opens I saw at my local book -6.5, I wasn't expecting that big a line.

The books is counting the Spurs rating over the full season according to my line, giving them no extra credit for making a big improvement after the break. 

Much like they did in the 1st round.

2cd round they did give Spurs a little extra credit but Spurs still covered that so kind of surprise to see no extra credit here in conference  finals.

Maybe it is the Spurs being off 2 big blowout wins book may be building in some regression by the Spurs.

Or I suppose the lack of experience could play a role as well. Especially  seeing OKC is defending champs, they know what it takes to get there and win.

Great thread 

@theclaw

Always a  to drop by and checkout for some info 

Only bet I have on the NBA is Wemby to win the season MVP at +230, before his early season injury. I understand it went up after he missed some time. Wish I had added more during that period but the league has been so favorable to OKC this year  that I won't be surprised if he gets snubbed and Spurs get the shaft that has prevented me from making another bet. Been burned one too many times in this league that the better team doesn't move on yet the league's favorite does. 

That being said I might tune in for game 1 , I haven't watched all but maybe 3 minutes of playoff basketball lol. 

Sources saying Shai is the MVP, of course. 

Thank you mac ..........

Think about this , each teams starters , Spurs averaged 70.6 games played.

OKC 63.2

Best player OKC 68 , SPURS 64

Top 3 players..... spurs averaged 68 games each.

OKC 56.7

6th and 7th man, the 2 key players off the bench.....

Spurs 79.5..played almost every game.

OKC 52 games

Yet despite this big advantage in key players playing more games for the Spurs , OKC ends with the No. 1 seed .

Wemby had his better players playing in more games then SGA did.

Should be an all-time classic series Digitalkarma, great games to watch ................

Playoffs to date ---- 24-15, won 10.9 units

My Lines ................

Pistons -7.7 over Cavs

Pistons off a 21 pt win, their 2cd largest of the playoffs to the 22 pt win game 7 last round.

And they are 2-1ATS at home but should of, could of been 3-0 ATS.

It's tough to overcome games you certainly should of won but somehow someway did not.

And with the Piston not winning a single playoff series with their key players past couple of years, I'd have some cause for concern to back them here.

With my line clearly on the Pistons I'd lean Pistons but will pass on any action this game 7.

Of the Pistons 7 playoff wins 5 have gone under the total.

Game 7's generally go under so I'd lean the under.

Pistons have the 2cd best shooting efficiency defense in the playoffs , far better then 3rd best.

Which again explains 5 of 7 unders when Pistons win games.

It'll  be interesting  if Harden can deliver here today or another collapse and Mitchell as well.

I saw a video said both Harden and Mitchell are 2 of the worst FG% shooters in clutch moments. The last 5 minutes with a score within 5 pts.

Something to watch for down the stretch if we have a close game.

My Lines ..................... game 1's 

OKC -6.7 over Spurs ....... using full season

OKC - 4.03 .....using ave full season & after break

Knicks -6.38 over Cavs

PRI ...........

OKC 10.51

Spurs 10.21 ..... Ave

Spurs 7.81 .... full season

Knicks 5.87

Cavs 3.49 

OKC by 2.7 over Spurs ...... full season

OKC by .3........ using ave

Knicks by 2.38 over Cavs

Here's the deal ............. past 27 years

Better team in PR I is ........35-19 winning the series

Better by 2 pts or better ........29-9 at winning the series (76.3%)

Teams below 2 pts ---- only 6-10 at winning the series

This is why it is important  how we rate the Spurs.

It appears the books are rating them over the course of the full season not including any extra credit for improvement after the break. As the books line is almost the same as my line based on full season.

I think they are better then the full season rating, how much better I can't  be exactly sure.

And then we have this .......

Teams rated 8.5 or better .......

14-3 at winning the series (82.4%)

That is OKC not the Spurs based on full season.

But giving the Spurs extra credit they could surpass the 8.5.

PR II ..................

SPURS 55.01 ....... full season

Spurs 56.41 ........ Ave

Knicks 54.91

OKC 54.71

Cavs 51.76

Here-s the deal ..........  past 27 years

The better team is ........34-20 at winning the series

Better by 2 pts or more ....12-3 (80%)

There was 1 team Better by 1.98 which did win series

Better by less then 2 pts ...... 22-17 winning the series

So OKC is better then the Spurs by 2 pts or more with full season PR I while Spurs being better in PR II but not by 2 pts in either full season or ave.

If neither team is better by 2 pts then PR I below 2 pts is 6-10 favors Spurs

PR II below 2 pts is 22-17 favors Spurs

PR II teams over 54.75 are 10-3 at winning the series favors Spurs

However OKC lost both bigs early on and were a bad rebounding team once they returned OKC'S rebounding improved which then we can say OKC is above 54.75.

It boils down to how we rate Spurs, how much if any credit we give them for their after the break improvement. 

Then we have OKC over 5% shooting efficiency  team. These teams are 7 of 8 winning the title with the only losing team 2016 Warriors losing to LBJ and the Cavs.

We could make a case Wemby is the same kind if great player LBJ once was.

But remember Warriors lost Green to suspension, lost their center to injury and Curry was not 100%.

It does appear this will be an all-time down to the wire classic series.

Here's something interesting.......... I did not expect to see this .

Of the 4 teams in conference finals  if the same team is 4th in both PR I & PR II which the Cavs are they actually haven't done that bad.

They win a 3rd of all series.

5-10 at winning the series. So they won 5 of the 15 times this has occurred.

Based on the odds, I don't know what they are but the Cavs might be the better long term winner over time if you are getting the right odds.

Wemby in playoffs has about the same minutes played . 29.2 to 28.8 in playoffs. 

His production is down now that teams are really pestering him.

PER of 29.9 drops to 27.9.

Many things he does is down.

His assist in regular  season 17.6% to 10.8% TO

He is not particularly  good at passing.

If we look at other bigs in this era like the Freak , Embiid, even Sengun they are much better at passing and assist to TO rate then Wemby.

Freak has over 30% assist rate and over a 2 to 1 assist to TO rate.

Embiid is close to 30%.

Not even to mention how far above those players Joker is. 

17.6% assist is not very good.

But in the playoffs he has regressed pretty big.

Drops to 13.1% assists and his TO rate is worse by 37% , turning it over at a 14.8% rate and is now turning it over at a higher rate then he is getting assist all because he is getting extra attention that he cannot solve.

And now he must face the TO Kings of the NBA.

OKC is 2cd in fewest TO's and 2cd in forcing TO's

His pts are down over 5 pts per game.

He has holes in his game. He don't have much of a postup game.  Does he have a go-to shot in the clutch like Karrem had the skyhook or Hakeen had the dream shake, not really .

Hakeem was great at passing out of double teams in the post to 3 pt shooters in both years they won titles as is Joker but with no postup game maybe why he is not good at passing. 

Speaking of Hakeem, he holds the all time record for blocks, at this point in Wemby career Wemby is 80 blocks behind Hakeem. 

Wemby big issue is he cannot sustain a high level without playing fewer minutes.

Colin Cowherd said you wait till the playoffs Wemby will play alot more minutes and the stats he'll put up will be off the charts.

Well the reality is the exact opposite. 

What I  am trying to point out people Wemby as great as he is, seems to be inflated by most people I see out there.

He should improve over the next couple of years, if he does then he might be at the level people think he is right now.

If he plays middle 30's in minutes his per minute production is going down.

The one thing he does do is take away the close to basket shots which are the highest shooting efficiency  shots.

OKC needs to pull him away from the basket and really take advantage of his inability to play any extended minutes.

I think they will and I think when I add it all up OKC should win this series.

Comment #295 --- At Heritage CLV is +213 to take the NY series.  That is fair value but no advantage for CLV.

Comment #296 = great analysis.  Well done, TC.

Thanks dog ..........

Yea I saw the Cavs odds, not really any advantage if Cavs win 33% of the time.

The one thing I didn't  mention was with Knicks being better by over 2 pts in both PR's the probability they win this series goes up.

I am not sure how that would change things. Very possible all 5 teams won series not once were they 2 pts difference or more in either PR .

I thought about that later, need to look that up.

OKC -6.5 over Spurs --- .55 units

Spurs off 2 big blowout wins, this puts them very close to being a playoff regression  fade.

If they win here in game 1 , very likely they do become a fade.

And 5% shooting efficiency teams off a game 1 ATS loss are 3-1 ATS game 2

These 5% teams are only about 50% in both game 1 and game 2 but the one spot they have done better is off a ATS loss.

Yes that is a small sample however if the Spurs do go into playoff regression mode after game then that small sample does support a game 2 play on OKC.

So I'll make a small play game 1 then make a larger play game  2 if needed.

That's  my strategy.  You can pass and play game 2 but I don't want to pass up a possible Spurs regression  fade.

Are you passing on Game 1 of SA-OKC, TC?