IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

@theclaw

 Great info as always

I guess we posted virtually simultaneously, TC.

Good luck with OKC.

I’m a horrible picker… but one would think… the heavy fav.. at home… risk of going down 0-2… okc has to be a solid play game 2… curious what the data says claw…I’ll tune in.  

This is typically how public sheep think.

And oftentimes it doesn't end well for them.

Yes.  Very difficult for the road team to win both games 1 & 2, it happens but not very often.......

Plus Spurs off 3 ATS wins and big wins, the only issue I see is the line a little inflated.

0-1, lost .55 units

Wemby was sensational, he played 49 minutes i think. It did look like he was lumbering a bit running up court at times.

OKC trying to put smaller players on him wont work when he gets inside, Wemby can easily shoot over them, dunk over them, too easy for him.

That's  going to be a big issue for OKC to solve. They need a big in there and maybe both bigs inside. Chet did block 1 of his shots, the smaller players don't even try to block him.

SGA was not good, he should play alot better next game.

I thought the way the game played out it was important for Spurs to win this game, if they didn't possible OKC was going up 2-0.

The road team generally gets 1 good oppurtunity to steal a game 1 or game 2 when they get that opportunity  they need to grab it.

Wemby scored 27 pts with 17 rebounds at the end of regulation with 3 assists and 3 TO's . Great game for sure but not historically great.

Scoring 41 pts with 24 rebounds is historically  great but he needed 2 OT's to do that.

This is the point I am trying to make guys, give a great player more shot attempts, more rebounds available of course he will score more and rebound more, common sense really. No magic, no secrets. 

This is exactly how Wilt averaged 50 pts a game and 27 rebounds a game. It's math, not magic.

It is a great game by Wemby and he did sustain his play for the 49 minutes, this could very well be his coming out party as an allrime great. if he continues this not sure anyone get beat this team in a 7 game series.

But OKC will make adjustments and SGA will play better. OKC should have their moments in this series.

My Lines ..............

OKC -6.7 over Spurs ....... full season

OKC -4.03 ........ ave

Spurs now off 3 SU & ATS WINS and off 2 big blowouts wins by 29 & 30 pts and off a 139 pt offense game and a 126 pt game which is their 1st and 3rd most pts scored this playoffs.

Then followed those 2 big offensive games with a win & a cover.

Regression is coming people, it is near, ripe for the picking. Could be game 3 but this game has to many good regression  indicators to pass up.

OKC -7  over Spurs ...... 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

I'd lean the under and Spurs TT UNDER as well.

Play has to be on OKC .

OKC for sure 

VW first played in the 2023-2024 season (referred to as the 2023 season in Sports Data Query Language).  This query supports fading SA off their upset win:

season > 2022 and team = Spurs and p:WAD

ATS:  7-18-0 (-3.7,28.0%)

In seasons 2023+, SA off an outright Win as an Away Dog is just 7-18-0 ATS with an avg ATS margin of -3.7 points.

season > 2022 and team = Spurs and p:WAD and P:W

ATS:  3-11-0 (-6.2, 21.4%)

In seasons 2023+, SA off an outright Win as an Away Dog vs a team they beat in their previous matchup is just 3-11-0 ATS with an avg ATS margin of -6.2 points.

OTOH SA is 5-1 SU and ATS vs OKC this season.

Good luck everybody.

I ran 2 more queries with the series AD off 3 very strong games which make this ATS matchup look like more of a tossup.  This one has a larger sample size:

PO = 1 and series game = 2 and AD and p:WAD and p:ats margin + pp:ats margin + ppp:ats margin > 39.2

ATS:  7-8-1 (0.7,46.7%)

Series game 2 Away Dogs off 3 games with a combined ats margin of 39.5+ points are 7-8-1 ATS with an avg ATS margin of 0.7 points.

Good luck everybody.

One more query:  SGA was acquired by OKC in July of 2019.

season > 2018 and team = Thunder and HF and p:LHF

SU:  17-2 (15.9,89.5%)

ATS:  11-7-1 (5.6,61.1%) avg line = -10.32 (of course SA is a really tough opponent)

OKC could certainly have a big bounce and win by 16 points.  Let's see what happens.

Nice work ..........

Sweet result

Interesting dog, my indicators are all over this Spurs team to fade. But sometimes it always doesn't  come the first game it can come the 2cd game .

But it is very close to like 90% it is coming 1 of the next 2 games..............

Interesting that this is the very first time I can recall having a team due for regression as the dog in the game.

In other words I back a good size favorite.

Always the better team is due regression as the 2 games I posted  this playoffs, 76ers game 2 VS Knicks and Lakers game 4 VS OKC. Both winners.

But I did not hit either on the game ML which is rare. I almost always get at least 1 big ML dog each playoffs. 

Although I did hit 76ers ML in 1st half.

Both good size dogs, not a decent sized favorite like OKC.

However, regression is regression regardless how it comes, when regression comes calling very few teams over history have escaped it.

I been seeing similar things online.........

Guys claim all the money was coming in on Spurs but sharps all over OKC.

Hence why line moved up 

I'll  have a play on Knicks/Cavs tomorrow and possibly, depending what happens tonight some nice parlays.

It'll  be a great spot to play the parlays.

I could of played them tonight with Knicks/Cavs game, but playing them tomorrow  cranks up the probability to hit them.

Cash that sweatshop!

@theclaw

@theclaw

Are you going to be on Cavs for major Knicks regression? My concern is a historic collapse from Cavs but otherwise Cavs would be the play. If they show fight maybe a live play 

@SportsIntuition

 I went with claw lean here… the sheep won one… I’ve been doing this awhile…and have absolutely been the sheep in many situations… 

Majority of public was on spurs up to 68% per action network. Gtfo sheep lmao

@theclaw