IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026

I was sweating that last one a bit. 

Yea possible ............ 

Thanks dog .........

Yes we got a little lucky at the end........

. But that is why I only went half a unit as the my line was off the actual line by a pretty large amount.

Although the spot historically  favored the Cavs but they are overrated.

1-0, won .5 units

As much as the info suggested Pistons defense gave up well over 100 pts. Most pts they gave up all playoffs.

I thought the game could play out exactly how it did with the Pistons hanging close down to the wire , hence why I only laid half a unit.

We did get a little lucky there at the end.

Cavs just too overrated. 

My Lines .............

Knicks -3.46 over 76ers

Spurs -2.59 over Twolves

Knicks in a closeout game , we don't use my lines in closeout games. Instead we back any team is clearly the better team.

Based on the full regular season Knicks are the clearly better team but Embiid was not there much. With him back then tougher to say if Knicks are clearly better.

With Embiid back it is a little iffy how long or how he will play. 

A couple of things, historically  game 4's are not good to back the closeout team ATS, and with the Knicks coming off regression these teams do lose ATS 2 of the next 3 games but not as good a play as getting that first fade.

I think 76ers would be the play. 

Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs.

With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play.

Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.

76ers +1.5 over Knicks --- .55 units to win .5 units

Twolves +4.5 (-105) over Spurs --- .53 units to win .5 units

Going half a unit because of Emiid situation.

Ant is not on the injury report so he should be good to go from what  I saw.

What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win?  They won by 7 pts last game.

Re-read what I said .  ...........

What are your thoughts on utilizing more first half lines? I agree with sixers and wolves but on 1h

History tells us in 3-0 game 4s there’s almost never a time where the underdog team who’s down loses the 1h and then wins the game, but winning the 1h and losing the game happens often. I see nearly no scenario where sixers lose 1h but win game, 1h probably wins with FG too. The reason for that is the underdog team must have a fast start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise they fade second half and the favorite closes the series 

similar for wolves and SA has slow road starts in 1h with big deficits at Portland only to end up winning easily 

GL  @theclaw

It’s a Dog day afternoon for me woof woof!

theclaw wrote "Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win." I think if he'd included the word "and" in between "win" and "then", you wouldn't have been thrown off.

This doesn't apply to either favorite today.  SA lost SU and ATS in Game 1 vs. MIN, and NY failed to cover as a 10.5 favorite in Game 2 vs. PHL.

Good luck today, TC.

Good info. I am aware of some trends for 1st half and game................

[Quote: Originally Posted by Macwestie1]GL  @theclaw It’s a Dog day afternoon for me woof woof![/Quote

Mac. ............

Yes but after the Knicks game 2 non- cover Spurs covered later that night in game 2 which started the 7 straight covers for favorites...........

The next 3 days all fans covered dog.

Pistons covered game2 and Cavs covered game 3, OKc covered every game and Knicks & Spurs both covered game 3.

That is 6-0 right there plus the Spurs covering the late games after Knicks game 2 non-cover in the early game.

1-1, lost .5 units

Wow , what got into these Knicks ? Never thought I'd see the day this team could play like this.

Once again they shot lights out. 57% on 3's and like 54% overall.

I suspect it could be weak opps. Hawks red-hot coming in but overrated to me. 76ers without Embiid did rank last in playoffs but with Embiid tough to say how healthy he was and how much he was on top of his game.

Wemby getting booted sure did help I don't see Twolves winning this series.

My Lines .............. game 4's

Cavs -.3 over Pistons

OKC  4.13 over LA .......... full season

OKC -2.99 ...... LA after the break

OKC off 3 SU & ATS WINS and off some nice bigger wins but not really big blowout wins. 18,18 and 23 pt wins but considering OKC was 15 to 16 pt favorite a 18 pt win is not that impressive but it is still a cover though.

The play has to be on LA.

Pistons were in game 3 with a great shot to win SU, might be difficult for them to duplicate that back to back road games but With both my PR'S clearly siding with Pistons as the far better team and my line once again on the Pistons I think the play has to be Pistons or pass.

I would only take a small half unit play on Pistons if I were to not pass.

Favs go 1-1 last night, suggesting dogs chould bounce back again tonight which does point to Pistons and LA both games I would agree with.

At least 1 dog should get the cover with a possibility both do.

LA +11.5 over OKC --- 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

LA ML +430 --- .5 units

LA +6.5 1st half --- .5 units

LA ML 1st half +250 --- .5 units

I'll pass on Pistons 

@theclaw

 Bol

For the 23 pts win, OKC out scored LA at home by 25 in the 2H. For all 3 games, OKC  covered the 2H and enough to cover the whole game. Interestingly, LA was leading at half time for the last two games and got blown out in the 2H.

Good luck with LAL.

Are you playing the Cavs tonight Claw?