Posted:
#226
I was sweating that last one a bit.
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IT'S NBA PLAYOFF TIME ..................2026
Posted:
#229
Quote Originally Posted by Bonekrusher:
I was sweating that last one a bit.
I was sweating that last one a bit.
Yes we got a little lucky at the end........
. But that is why I only went half a unit as the my line was off the actual line by a pretty large amount.
Although the spot historically favored the Cavs but they are overrated.
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Posted:
#230
1-0, won .5 units
As much as the info suggested Pistons defense gave up well over 100 pts. Most pts they gave up all playoffs.
I thought the game could play out exactly how it did with the Pistons hanging close down to the wire , hence why I only laid half a unit.
We did get a little lucky there at the end.
Cavs just too overrated.
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Posted:
#231
My Lines .............
Knicks -3.46 over 76ers
Spurs -2.59 over Twolves
Knicks in a closeout game , we don't use my lines in closeout games. Instead we back any team is clearly the better team.
Based on the full regular season Knicks are the clearly better team but Embiid was not there much. With him back then tougher to say if Knicks are clearly better.
With Embiid back it is a little iffy how long or how he will play.
A couple of things, historically game 4's are not good to back the closeout team ATS, and with the Knicks coming off regression these teams do lose ATS 2 of the next 3 games but not as good a play as getting that first fade.
I think 76ers would be the play.
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Posted:
#232
Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs.
With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play.
Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.
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Posted:
#234
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.
Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.
What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game.
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Posted:
#235
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both. What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both. What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game.
Re-read what I said . ...........
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Posted:
#236
What are your thoughts on utilizing more first half lines? I agree with sixers and wolves but on 1h
History tells us in 3-0 game 4s there’s almost never a time where the underdog team who’s down loses the 1h and then wins the game, but winning the 1h and losing the game happens often. I see nearly no scenario where sixers lose 1h but win game, 1h probably wins with FG too. The reason for that is the underdog team must have a fast start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise they fade second half and the favorite closes the series
similar for wolves and SA has slow road starts in 1h with big deficits at Portland only to end up winning easily
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@theclaw
Posted:
#238
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster:
What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game.
What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game.
theclaw wrote "Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win." I think if he'd included the word "and" in between "win" and "then", you wouldn't have been thrown off.
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Posted:
#239
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.
Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both.
This doesn't apply to either favorite today. SA lost SU and ATS in Game 1 vs. MIN, and NY failed to cover as a 10.5 favorite in Game 2 vs. PHL.
Good luck today, TC.
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Posted:
#240
Quote Originally Posted by BarrelledIn:
What are your thoughts on utilizing more first half lines? I agree with sixers and wolves but on 1h History tells us in 3-0 game 4s there’s almost never a time where the underdog team who’s down loses the 1h and then wins the game, but winning the 1h and losing the game happens often. I see nearly no scenario where sixers lose 1h but win game, 1h probably wins with FG too. The reason for that is the underdog team must have a fast start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise they fade second half and the favorite closes the series similar for wolves and SA has slow road starts in 1h with big deficits at Portland only to end up winning easily
What are your thoughts on utilizing more first half lines? I agree with sixers and wolves but on 1h History tells us in 3-0 game 4s there’s almost never a time where the underdog team who’s down loses the 1h and then wins the game, but winning the 1h and losing the game happens often. I see nearly no scenario where sixers lose 1h but win game, 1h probably wins with FG too. The reason for that is the underdog team must have a fast start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, otherwise they fade second half and the favorite closes the series similar for wolves and SA has slow road starts in 1h with big deficits at Portland only to end up winning easily
Good info. I am aware of some trends for 1st half and game................
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Posted:
#242
Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster: What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game. theclaw wrote "Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win." I think if he'd included the word "and" in between "win" and "then", you wouldn't have been thrown off.
Quote Originally Posted by Chauster: What are you talking about Spurs off a big blowout 38 pt win? They won by 7 pts last game. theclaw wrote "Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win." I think if he'd included the word "and" in between "win" and "then", you wouldn't have been thrown off.
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Posted:
#243
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both. This doesn't apply to either favorite today. SA lost SU and ATS in Game 1 vs. MIN, and NY failed to cover as a 10.5 favorite in Game 2 vs. PHL. Good luck today, TC.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: Spurs off a big blowout 38 point win then a SU & ATS win , not the best spot to back the Spurs. With my line favoring the Twolves the play has to be on the Twolves or no play. Another thing to keep in mind guys , correct me if I am wrong but favorites are off at least a 6-0 ATS run, maybe 7-0 so I think it is highly likely at least 1 dog covers today and possibly both. This doesn't apply to either favorite today. SA lost SU and ATS in Game 1 vs. MIN, and NY failed to cover as a 10.5 favorite in Game 2 vs. PHL. Good luck today, TC.
Yes but after the Knicks game 2 non- cover Spurs covered later that night in game 2 which started the 7 straight covers for favorites...........
The next 3 days all fans covered dog.
Pistons covered game2 and Cavs covered game 3, OKc covered every game and Knicks & Spurs both covered game 3.
That is 6-0 right there plus the Spurs covering the late games after Knicks game 2 non-cover in the early game.
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Posted:
#244
1-1, lost .5 units
Wow , what got into these Knicks ? Never thought I'd see the day this team could play like this.
Once again they shot lights out. 57% on 3's and like 54% overall.
I suspect it could be weak opps. Hawks red-hot coming in but overrated to me. 76ers without Embiid did rank last in playoffs but with Embiid tough to say how healthy he was and how much he was on top of his game.
Wemby getting booted sure did help I don't see Twolves winning this series.
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Posted:
#245
My Lines .............. game 4's
Cavs -.3 over Pistons
OKC 4.13 over LA .......... full season
OKC -2.99 ...... LA after the break
OKC off 3 SU & ATS WINS and off some nice bigger wins but not really big blowout wins. 18,18 and 23 pt wins but considering OKC was 15 to 16 pt favorite a 18 pt win is not that impressive but it is still a cover though.
The play has to be on LA.
Pistons were in game 3 with a great shot to win SU, might be difficult for them to duplicate that back to back road games but With both my PR'S clearly siding with Pistons as the far better team and my line once again on the Pistons I think the play has to be Pistons or pass.
I would only take a small half unit play on Pistons if I were to not pass.
Favs go 1-1 last night, suggesting dogs chould bounce back again tonight which does point to Pistons and LA both games I would agree with.
At least 1 dog should get the cover with a possibility both do.
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