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is it possible just to cap games by line movement?

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Participants:

Posts: 45

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:10 PM ET #1

I seem to do a better job by picking games by just looking at line movement and also whos starting and whos not...yeah i know there is a lot to look at but ive done better just by watching the line frm the start and how it fnishes to see if more money came in late on a certain side....

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:16 PM ET #2

Plz comment negative or positive. Dont matter i just want to learn more!

EVANTORR

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 1684

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:16 PM ET #3

Depends but when you see a line move like it did last night for Boston +9 to +8 and majority of regular betters are taking G State that's a clear sign to either get off G State or make your bet Boston. If that makes sense that's the best example I can give. Lot of variables though.

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:23 PM ET #4

Quote Originally Posted by EVANTORR:

Depends but when you see a line move like it did last night for Boston +9 to +8 and majority of regular betters are taking G State that's a clear sign to either get off G State or make your bet Boston. If that makes sense that's the best example I can give. Lot of variables though.

Yes i understand that and i always put that variavle in play.

I know when there is a high percentage. On a team and the line barely moves its cause there is smart.money on the other side ..

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:23 PM ET #5

Thanks evan.

RefereeSystem

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 180

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:29 PM ET #6

Yes. Look at how the line moves at the last minute. Usually thats when sharps pound it. The reason is this:

1) Wait for line to go up all day from public taking that side

2) Hammer at last second because you are sure there are no injuries/etc

Reverse line movement is real, and you can make a profit by just using a RLM system.

cdog60

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 136

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 1:30 PM ET #7

I like to watch it especially when it comes to totals or when a favorite changes to a dog

EVANTORR

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 1684

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 2:04 PM ET #8

To answer your question though. I would NEVER bet on line movement alone. IMO the most important aspect of betting on sports is the SITUATION. Ie: Back to back factor, revenge factor, injuries, must wins, etc.

I can't really give an example in the NBA tonight.

But in NCAA you have a Texas team that pretty much has to win because of their very poor record vs TOP 50 teams. Not that I am betting texas. But that situation combined with the fact that they are home let's me know I would never bet against them tonight.

Killa_Kraken

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 480

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 2:26 PM ET #9

It's one of the most reliable systems and almost all of the winning bettors I know or have followed value line movement highly. RLM is usually a guaranteed hit from what I've seen in my short time betting and even normal line movement indicates where the smart money is coming in if you watch it correctly as RefSystem has already described.

Anyone that wins a lot without taking any account of line movement at all is either extremely skilled or very lucky IMO.

AnthonyStarks

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 6627

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 3:01 PM ET #10

I been doing it for years but honestly I've been having better results the past year being flexible with it and keeping an open mind.

upsetplayer

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2014

Posts: 3

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 3:10 PM ET #11

There is many reasons why the lines get move. If your system is working, and you are finish the week with more money in your pocket than you bet. Let it at it is, don't look at other systems until you learn very well your actual system.

thorpe

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 12927

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 3:17 PM ET #12

There is no easy way to cap games. Every game and every situation is different

If you think you are on to something, take the time to write down the plays, and report back here after 25 plays.

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 3:55 PM ET #13

Thank you guys for sharing all this information i really appreciate..i will put all this to use on my following games

One last question when the.vig goes up does that mean more money was placed on that side or is that not always the case?

AnthonyStarks

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 6627

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 3:59 PM ET #14

You answered the question with your question. Yes and no

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 4:04 PM ET #15

Lol thanks sorry for these ridiculous questions but if i dont ask ill never know all just be a square whixh i dont wanna be forever lol

AnChacChan35

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2015

Posts: 284

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 5:07 PM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by cdog60:

I like to watch it especially when it comes to totals or when a favorite changes to a dog

I been doing exactly this and that how I won both on Celtics (pregame pick) and warriors ML when it was +130. Of course it does not always work but I have better luck so far

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 6:30 PM ET #17

whats to look at when a dog becomes a favorite?

yesterday those teams were 0-2 , you would think vegas knows which one to start as fav

Mav321

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2014

Posts: 127

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 6:54 PM ET #18

the sharps pound the line early if they see value; value = public going the other way; they then hedge the last minute to middle. RLM system requires a lot of foresight and is not dependable for the average capper. always be wary of the line.

Best example today is 68%/32% clippers/wolves. Line has not moved from 5 at all which is suspicious. The lean is wolves +5, but do not act just yet. Watch the line in the last hour before tipoff; if the line moves to 4.5, then this is reverse line movement that is not supported by hedging/middling strategy; Take the wolves. If line does not move or move to 5.5-6; I would advise a no bet.

Bruuuuce78

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 5365

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 6:58 PM ET #19

Short answer I say no.... But it is a useful tool handicapping games.

duranizm

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 2166

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 7:54 PM ET #20

nope in the long run, however knowing & reading line correctly will help you take winners in the long run

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 9:14 PM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by Mav321:

the sharps pound the line early if they see value; value = public going the other way; they then hedge the last minute to middle. RLM system requires a lot of foresight and is not dependable for the average capper. always be wary of the line.

line moved a point befor tip so i took mine before my book followed got it at 5.5

raul214

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2014

Posts: 359

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 9:21 PM ET #22

fckn texas ! by 2

WSTgekko

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 689

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 9:50 PM ET #23

RLM strategies all fail. You have to be able to cap your own games and create your own LINES for the games. Start learning how to do this and you will be making profits year in and year out.

A LOT goes into capping games. If your lines aren't 1-3 points within what Vegas puts out, you are doing something wrong.In basketball for instance, back to back and college road games weigh heavily on how a game is capped. Jeff Sagarin for USA Today puts out his ratings. Currently in NCAA a home team right off the bat gets +3.26 points.

You need to learn more and learn to make your own spreads. Simply reacting to line movement to find a winner is why these systems never work out in the end.

DTPACE

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2015

Posts: 193

Posted: Mar. 2, 2015 - 10:19 PM ET #24

Quote Originally Posted by WSTgekko:

RLM strategies all fail. You have to be able to cap your own games and create your own LINES for the games. Start learning how to do this and you will be making profits year in and year out.

You need to learn more and learn to make your own spreads. Simply reacting to line movement to find a winner is why these systems never work out in the end.

excellent point!!

AnthonyStarks

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 6627

Posted: Mar. 3, 2015 - 7:24 AM ET #25

You need to learn more and learn to make your own spreads. Simply reacting to line movement to find a winner is why these systems never work out in the end.

Great post.

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is it possible just to cap games by line movement?

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