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Interesting read about link between sleep and performance

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Participants:

Posts: 72

Booka

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 41

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 11:50 AM ET #51

10/27: BOS*@CHI -- CHI -1 O/U 209 -- FINAL 99-105

bulls cover and win SU -- game total under

11/2: PHI*@CHA -- CHA -13 O/U 197 -- FINAL 93-109

hornets cover and win SU -- game total over

11/6: SAC*@TOR -- TOR -7.5 O/U 197.5 -- FINAL 96-91

kings cover and win SU -- game total under

11/10: CHI*@MIA -- MIA -1 O/U 201 -- FINAL 98-95

bulls cover and win SU -- game total under

11/19: DAL*@ORL -- ORL -7.5 O/U 179.5 -- FINAL 87-95

magic cover and win SU -- game total over

11/23: POR**@CLE -- CLE -11.5 O/U 219 -- FINAL 125-137

cavs cover and win SU -- game total over

11/26: DET@OKC* -- OKC -4.5 O/U 203 -- FINAL 88-106

thunder cover and win SU -- game total under

11/29: LAL*@NO -- NO -5.5 O/U 218.5 -- FINAL 88-105

pelicans cover and win SU -- game total under

11/29: DET@CHA*** -- CHA -3.5 O/U 200 -- FINAL 112-89

pistons cover and win SU -- game total over

12/3: LAL***@MEM -- MEM -2.5 O/U 198 -- FINAL 100-103

griz cover and win SU -- game total over

tasty

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 32

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:04 PM ET #52

rondo didnt play lastnight, if that factors into anything

armpitsniffer

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 1553

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:37 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by Booka:

been trolling for a while. thought i would give posting a try. found this thread really interesting. all past lines i pulled from vegasinsiders.

1 star games we are 4-3 ATS. 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 ATS. I know the fact that 1 star games are more 50-50 and the 2 and 3 star seem more legit has been posted already. I'm more concerned with the game totals.

in 1 star games we are 5-2 on the under. one of the misses is an absurdly low 178 line (actual game total only hit 182).

in 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 on the over.

i know super small sample size but here's my spin on how the numbers could correlate to something real.

in 1 star games our teams are only moderately fatigued. they realize they are not at 100% but still have the energy to play some D. if they get in a track meet they are likely toast and try to keep the game at a comfortable speed.

in 2 and 3 star games our teams are gassed. these are games nobody expects them to win, let alone cover. mindset is going to be more on the side of we have nothing to lose. mental lapses lead to giving up easy buckets which runs the score up.

the last 2 paragraphs are just me spit balling. not sure how much weight that holds but makes sense in my head.

sooo how are we calculating this MAH factor? i would like to go back a couple of seasons and see how well these trends hold up. if whoever knows how to calculate can post a list of games like they did for this season with the stars i'll go back and see how we do ATS and O/U. if you don't want to make the list of games just teach me how to calculate and i can do that as well.

will be going memphis/under and detroit/over today. here's to hoping small sample sizes mean anything

good work

JamieR44

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 652

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 12:52 PM ET #54

Interesting....and by the numbers, the exact opposite should happen.

Will be watching these two totals from the sidelines...which also can be a good thing to have in the toolbox.

armpitsniffer

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 1553

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 9:55 PM ET #55

hell yeah we did it!

JamieR44

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2015

Posts: 652

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 10:35 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by armpitsniffer:

hell yeah we did it!

Meaning? You won DET outright, but split the O/U.

Booka

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 41

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 11:15 PM ET #57

Stayed under on the 1 star game.. I like that.

See you 12/10.

Onye

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 2581

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 11:42 PM ET #58

3-0

armpitsniffer

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2016

Posts: 1553

Posted: Dec. 6, 2016 - 11:44 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by JamieR44:

Meaning? You won DET outright, but split the O/U.

? I took DET + the under @ 200 (bought pt)

imsoti8

Rookie

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 958

Posted: Dec. 8, 2016 - 10:52 AM ET #60

What about a the NFL?

OAK/KC tonight 7:25 CST kickoff short week.

The Raaaaaaiiiiiiiddddeeers still on west coast time period 2 hours behind plus single digit temps.

It's COLD outside. REALLY COLD!

No brainer right KC SU and cover - 3?

yorosan

Captain

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 8201

Posted: Dec. 10, 2016 - 1:59 AM ET #61

2 more tomorrow

Letsgetsome

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2016

Posts: 1007

Posted: Dec. 10, 2016 - 12:16 PM ET #62

Thanks for thread!

Just wondering why Portland and Indiana are not on your list tonight?

Who let dogs out?

htrain34

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 2186

Posted: Dec. 10, 2016 - 8:50 PM ET #63

This is the kind of thinking we used to get at Covers. Love to see this nice work.

namamasa

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2016

Posts: 20

Posted: Dec. 11, 2016 - 7:41 AM ET #64

You guys think GSW @ MIN is gonna work out for Minny tom?

Onye

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 2581

Posted: Dec. 11, 2016 - 8:41 AM ET #65

Can we trust collapsing wolves?

Onye

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 2581

Posted: Feb. 4, 2017 - 12:24 PM ET #66

Spurs

BaxterHolmes

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2017

Posts: 1

Posted: Apr. 6, 2017 - 3:59 PM ET #67

Hey all. Baxter Holmes here from ESPN. I authored the piece mentioned above for ESPN The Magazine, and this Saturday, April 8, 2017, marks the final Schedule Alert game for us this season-- the tired Spurs facing the Clippers.

We'd like to do a story wrapping up this project and how it has fared in its first year, and I thought, judging from this thread, that it might be really interesting to speak to some folks on the gambling side of things who used our list of games to their advantage.

So for anyone who is interested, please reach out to me at baxter.holmes [at] espn [dot] com. Would love to hear your thoughts on the project, how sleep/DNP-Rests affect odds/ability to wager on games and those sorts of things.

Thanks!

Baxter Holmes

NBA Writer

ESPN.com/ESPN The Magazine

Pendo

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2011

Posts: 3644

Posted: Jul. 24, 2017 - 12:37 PM ET #68

Hey Mr. Holmes,

Are you going to author this project, Schedule Alert games,
for the upcoming 2017-2018 season?

covering4

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 1

Posted: Nov. 10, 2017 - 7:05 AM ET #69

I need some help calculating Mah scores. What are the variables and how do i alot a score? I want to find out the mah scores for the Euroleague.

BoomerOU

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2016

Posts: 111

Posted: Nov. 12, 2017 - 2:18 PM ET #70

If anyone is still interested in this, they have updated what games fit this "MAH" score for 2017. So far there have been 7. They have been 5-2 ATS so far this year and 7-0 on the ML (albeit some big spreads).

Today Houston is on the alert @ Indiana. Interestingly this looks to be already figured into the line since Houston is only a 3.5 point favorite and you would expect them to be much higher.

TheWackyReport

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 2

Posted: Nov. 22, 2017 - 7:07 PM ET #71

BoomerOU

Where can this list be found at. I remember it was in the post last year.

Thanks

TheWackyReport

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2017

Posts: 2

Posted: Nov. 22, 2017 - 7:10 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by BoomerOU:

If anyone is still interested in this, they have updated what games fit this "MAH" score for 2017. So far there have been 7. They have been 5-2 ATS so far this year and 7-0 on the ML (albeit some big spreads).

Today Houston is on the alert @ Indiana. Interestingly this looks to be already figured into the line since Houston is only a 3.5 point favorite and you would expect them to be much higher.

Where Can we find This list at. Thanks

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Interesting read about link between sleep and performance

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