Line: ATS: CHA -13 (-110) W SU: -1200 W O/U: 196 O TT: 91.5 (PHI) O The play: Hornets -13 W Risk: .5 to win .45 The play: Hornets 1st half -7.5 L Risk: .5 to win .45
Like novacane, just give it time. Trust the process. Philly jumped out front in the first half, but yet again had nothing to offer after halftime. Earlier in this thread I said that Embiid is arguably their best player. There is no argument, he is their best player. When Dario Saric and newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova are taking the most FGA for your team you know you're in trouble. Don't let a couple early season covers ATS fool you, this team is bad.
I had no business making a 1st half play. However, this could be an inexpensive, valuable lesson. If our fade team exceeds expectations in the 1st half, then perhaps a regression to the mean is more likely to occur in the 2nd half. I will be watching this going forward.
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Line: ATS: CHA -13 (-110) W SU: -1200 W O/U: 196 O TT: 91.5 (PHI) O The play: Hornets -13 W Risk: .5 to win .45 The play: Hornets 1st half -7.5 L Risk: .5 to win .45
Like novacane, just give it time. Trust the process. Philly jumped out front in the first half, but yet again had nothing to offer after halftime. Earlier in this thread I said that Embiid is arguably their best player. There is no argument, he is their best player. When Dario Saric and newly acquired Ersan Ilyasova are taking the most FGA for your team you know you're in trouble. Don't let a couple early season covers ATS fool you, this team is bad.
I had no business making a 1st half play. However, this could be an inexpensive, valuable lesson. If our fade team exceeds expectations in the 1st half, then perhaps a regression to the mean is more likely to occur in the 2nd half. I will be watching this going forward.
I had this one circled after Boston lost at Chicago. Most of my reasoning was that the 2nd unit missed Marcus Smart. Well, he's back, but that's OK. Smart played a ton of minutes last night. He had 6 turnovers, which tells me two things: 1) He's pressing. No surprise there. A player like Smart was probably chomping at the bit to get back into action. 2) His stamina might not quite be there. I read a report that he was going hard at practice the day before. He'll be relied upon tonight to defend LeBron. This brings us to our other Celtic's fade material: Jae Crowder is out. LeBron's primary defender will be missed tonight on a roster that is already short. It will be Jerebko, Amir Johnson, and Smart trying to check LeBron. Cleveland is well rested. They've been at home for almost a week, and have only left Cleveland once this year for a short trip to Toronto and back. Meanwhile, Boston is 24 hours between tip times, including flight to Cleveland. This is a bad spot for Boston in my opinion. I locked this in last night at -8.5. Not a MAH game, but the same principles apply.
Side note: Boston is missing two other key contributors from last season: Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger. Add in Olynyk, Horford, and Crowder. This team's roster is a lot shorter than I think alot of people realize.
The play: CLE -8.5 Risk: .5 to win .45
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BOS@CLE -8.5
I had this one circled after Boston lost at Chicago. Most of my reasoning was that the 2nd unit missed Marcus Smart. Well, he's back, but that's OK. Smart played a ton of minutes last night. He had 6 turnovers, which tells me two things: 1) He's pressing. No surprise there. A player like Smart was probably chomping at the bit to get back into action. 2) His stamina might not quite be there. I read a report that he was going hard at practice the day before. He'll be relied upon tonight to defend LeBron. This brings us to our other Celtic's fade material: Jae Crowder is out. LeBron's primary defender will be missed tonight on a roster that is already short. It will be Jerebko, Amir Johnson, and Smart trying to check LeBron. Cleveland is well rested. They've been at home for almost a week, and have only left Cleveland once this year for a short trip to Toronto and back. Meanwhile, Boston is 24 hours between tip times, including flight to Cleveland. This is a bad spot for Boston in my opinion. I locked this in last night at -8.5. Not a MAH game, but the same principles apply.
Side note: Boston is missing two other key contributors from last season: Evan Turner, Jared Sullinger. Add in Olynyk, Horford, and Crowder. This team's roster is a lot shorter than I think alot of people realize.
LeBron James Total REB+AST Risk .5 to win .42 -Think we see a very active LeBron tonight. Averaging a triple double and making Kyrie scoring champ could be very real goals for LeBron to keep him motivated during the regular season. He would never tell anyone this though.
Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM Risk .5 to win .31 -Juice showed -120, shot up to -160. This prop is 4-0YTD.
Hope these aren't reaches. Discipline. Discipline. Discipline. BOL
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The play: CLE -8.5 Risk: .5 to win .45
Adding the following player props:
LeBron James Total REB+AST Risk .5 to win .42 -Think we see a very active LeBron tonight. Averaging a triple double and making Kyrie scoring champ could be very real goals for LeBron to keep him motivated during the regular season. He would never tell anyone this though.
Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM Risk .5 to win .31 -Juice showed -120, shot up to -160. This prop is 4-0YTD.
Hope these aren't reaches. Discipline. Discipline. Discipline. BOL
The play: CLE -8.5L Risk: .5 to win .45 -This was a cover damn near the entire game, only to have Boston back door at the end. Down by 17 at the start of the 4th, this game wasn't as close as the score indicates. The defending champs at home, rested, vs a short roster on a back to back. I still believe this was a good play.
LeBron James Total REB+AST W Risk .5 to win .42 -Dropping dimes, dropping dimes. Came out with 8 dimes and 1 rebound to start. In the end he got it done. Top 5 player of all time. You're just wrong if you don't agree. Good play.
Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM L Risk .5 to win .31 -Certainly not for a lack of trying. If I told you Thomas had 30 points wouldn't you think for sure that he dropped a couple treys? Wrong. 0-6 from distance. Was shooting 33% from 3 entering this game. All the numbers were there for this to hit, just didn't happen.
1-2 on the night, -1.08. Not a MAH game. Alot of good info to take away. Brad Stevens can't be happy with his team's defensive performance. I don't expect this to be the norm as Boston gets closer to having their entire roster at Stevens' disposal. Next game is at home vs Denver, who will be in the middle of a 5 game road trip, playing a back to back flying in from Detroit. A single digit line will most likely be a play for me. These plays are going to require swallowing a lot of points. When a situation like the Bulls game presents itself again with even money, or plus money, it will be an increased play for me.
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The play: CLE -8.5L Risk: .5 to win .45 -This was a cover damn near the entire game, only to have Boston back door at the end. Down by 17 at the start of the 4th, this game wasn't as close as the score indicates. The defending champs at home, rested, vs a short roster on a back to back. I still believe this was a good play.
LeBron James Total REB+AST W Risk .5 to win .42 -Dropping dimes, dropping dimes. Came out with 8 dimes and 1 rebound to start. In the end he got it done. Top 5 player of all time. You're just wrong if you don't agree. Good play.
Isaiah Thomas over 1.5 3PTM L Risk .5 to win .31 -Certainly not for a lack of trying. If I told you Thomas had 30 points wouldn't you think for sure that he dropped a couple treys? Wrong. 0-6 from distance. Was shooting 33% from 3 entering this game. All the numbers were there for this to hit, just didn't happen.
1-2 on the night, -1.08. Not a MAH game. Alot of good info to take away. Brad Stevens can't be happy with his team's defensive performance. I don't expect this to be the norm as Boston gets closer to having their entire roster at Stevens' disposal. Next game is at home vs Denver, who will be in the middle of a 5 game road trip, playing a back to back flying in from Detroit. A single digit line will most likely be a play for me. These plays are going to require swallowing a lot of points. When a situation like the Bulls game presents itself again with even money, or plus money, it will be an increased play for me.
I've identified all the games. For anyone who bothered to follow the link and look at the graph, 3 stars designates the 7 games that were called out with a MAH score of 8.5-9.5.
2 stars for the 11 games with a MAH score of 7.5-8.
1 star for the 24 games with a MAH score of 6.5-7.
Just to be clear, the starred team is the team at a DISADVANTAGE. (FADE). This could be useful info for player props too in my opinion.
10/27: BOS*@CHI
11/2: PHI*@CHA
11/6: SAC*@TOR
11/10: CHI*@MIA
11/19: DAL*@ORL
11/23: POR**@CLE
11/26: DET@OKC*
11/29: LAL*@NO
11/29: DET@CHA***
12/3: LAL***@MEM
12/6: PHI*@MEM
12/6: CHI***@DET
12/10: DEN@ORL**
12/10: MIA**@CHI
12/11: GS***@MIN
12/14: OKC**@UTA
12/17: LAL*@CLE
12/17: HOU*@MIN
12/20: IND*@NYK
12/30: DAL**@GS
12/31: LAC**@OKC
1/3: UTAH*@BOS
1/3: WAS*@DAL
1/13: DET*@UTAH
1/21: HOU**@MEM
1/22: DEN**@MIN
1/24: UTAH**@DEN
1/25: TOR*@MEM
2/4: DEN***@SAS
3/9 :LAC*@MEM
3/11: WAS***@POR
3/15: NO*@MIA
3/15: POR***@SAS
3/16: LAC*@DEN
3/16: MEM*@ATL
3/31: DET**@MIL
4/5: CLE*@BOS
4/5: DAL*@LAC
4/5: TOR*@DET
4/6 :BOS*@ATL
4/7: MIN*@UTAH
4/8: LAC@SAS**
Awesome job and thanks for following this. I just read the article today and was hoping someone on Covers was already following. Just one correction:
The Lakers game in the article is actually the game tonight vs Chicago and not the game played last night vs NO. Looking at the magazine and it's one of the MAH 6.5-7.0 games.
Best of luck and I'll be following along as well during the season.
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Quote Originally Posted by YouLikeThat:
I've identified all the games. For anyone who bothered to follow the link and look at the graph, 3 stars designates the 7 games that were called out with a MAH score of 8.5-9.5.
2 stars for the 11 games with a MAH score of 7.5-8.
1 star for the 24 games with a MAH score of 6.5-7.
Just to be clear, the starred team is the team at a DISADVANTAGE. (FADE). This could be useful info for player props too in my opinion.
10/27: BOS*@CHI
11/2: PHI*@CHA
11/6: SAC*@TOR
11/10: CHI*@MIA
11/19: DAL*@ORL
11/23: POR**@CLE
11/26: DET@OKC*
11/29: LAL*@NO
11/29: DET@CHA***
12/3: LAL***@MEM
12/6: PHI*@MEM
12/6: CHI***@DET
12/10: DEN@ORL**
12/10: MIA**@CHI
12/11: GS***@MIN
12/14: OKC**@UTA
12/17: LAL*@CLE
12/17: HOU*@MIN
12/20: IND*@NYK
12/30: DAL**@GS
12/31: LAC**@OKC
1/3: UTAH*@BOS
1/3: WAS*@DAL
1/13: DET*@UTAH
1/21: HOU**@MEM
1/22: DEN**@MIN
1/24: UTAH**@DEN
1/25: TOR*@MEM
2/4: DEN***@SAS
3/9 :LAC*@MEM
3/11: WAS***@POR
3/15: NO*@MIA
3/15: POR***@SAS
3/16: LAC*@DEN
3/16: MEM*@ATL
3/31: DET**@MIL
4/5: CLE*@BOS
4/5: DAL*@LAC
4/5: TOR*@DET
4/6 :BOS*@ATL
4/7: MIN*@UTAH
4/8: LAC@SAS**
Awesome job and thanks for following this. I just read the article today and was hoping someone on Covers was already following. Just one correction:
The Lakers game in the article is actually the game tonight vs Chicago and not the game played last night vs NO. Looking at the magazine and it's one of the MAH 6.5-7.0 games.
Best of luck and I'll be following along as well during the season.
Everything point to an easy win for Detroit , plus a look ahead game for chi (vs Spurs) but the point is if Chicago wanna prevent any major losing streak, that's the one they need!!!
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Everything point to an easy win for Detroit , plus a look ahead game for chi (vs Spurs) but the point is if Chicago wanna prevent any major losing streak, that's the one they need!!!
been trolling for a while. thought i would give posting a try. found this thread really interesting. all past lines i pulled from vegasinsiders.
1 star games we are 4-3 ATS. 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 ATS. I know the fact that 1 star games are more 50-50 and the 2 and 3 star seem more legit has been posted already. I'm more concerned with the game totals.
in 1 star games we are 5-2 on the under. one of the misses is an absurdly low 178 line (actual game total only hit 182).
in 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 on the over.
i know super small sample size but here's my spin on how the numbers could correlate to something real.
in 1 star games our teams are only moderately fatigued. they realize they are not at 100% but still have the energy to play some D. if they get in a track meet they are likely toast and try to keep the game at a comfortable speed.
in 2 and 3 star games our teams are gassed. these are games nobody expects them to win, let alone cover. mindset is going to be more on the side of we have nothing to lose. mental lapses lead to giving up easy buckets which runs the score up.
the last 2 paragraphs are just me spit balling. not sure how much weight that holds but makes sense in my head.
sooo how are we calculating this MAH factor? i would like to go back a couple of seasons and see how well these trends hold up. if whoever knows how to calculate can post a list of games like they did for this season with the stars i'll go back and see how we do ATS and O/U. if you don't want to make the list of games just teach me how to calculate and i can do that as well.
will be going memphis/under and detroit/over today. here's to hoping small sample sizes mean anything
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been trolling for a while. thought i would give posting a try. found this thread really interesting. all past lines i pulled from vegasinsiders.
1 star games we are 4-3 ATS. 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 ATS. I know the fact that 1 star games are more 50-50 and the 2 and 3 star seem more legit has been posted already. I'm more concerned with the game totals.
in 1 star games we are 5-2 on the under. one of the misses is an absurdly low 178 line (actual game total only hit 182).
in 2 and 3 star games we are 3-0 on the over.
i know super small sample size but here's my spin on how the numbers could correlate to something real.
in 1 star games our teams are only moderately fatigued. they realize they are not at 100% but still have the energy to play some D. if they get in a track meet they are likely toast and try to keep the game at a comfortable speed.
in 2 and 3 star games our teams are gassed. these are games nobody expects them to win, let alone cover. mindset is going to be more on the side of we have nothing to lose. mental lapses lead to giving up easy buckets which runs the score up.
the last 2 paragraphs are just me spit balling. not sure how much weight that holds but makes sense in my head.
sooo how are we calculating this MAH factor? i would like to go back a couple of seasons and see how well these trends hold up. if whoever knows how to calculate can post a list of games like they did for this season with the stars i'll go back and see how we do ATS and O/U. if you don't want to make the list of games just teach me how to calculate and i can do that as well.
will be going memphis/under and detroit/over today. here's to hoping small sample sizes mean anything
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