Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
"I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated
primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight
advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether
or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the
court."
Its not luck when figuring out when it is most likely that NBA players will be putting in effort on a specific day... scheduling is key as are motivational factors. NBA is a sport that, IMO, you need to have a background in to bet successfully. Why? You need to have either played or studied the game intensely to understand and analyze the data. Which trends are important? Which stats "matter" and which can be misleading and deceiving? If you ask me there is no substitute for actually watching the games too, and that's where (if you have a basketball background) you can really gain insight into match-up advantages. The more that you know about each player's game in the NBA, the better equipped you are to figure out how his skill set will mesh with the rest of his team and his opponent's potential weak points (or consequently, strong points).
One large thing I've taken from baseball betting is the long-haul approach and appreciate of variance. It's the same thing with the NBA. You just have to be comfortable that when you are putting your money down, you are doing so in situations where, for some reason, you have the edge.
Betting the NBA, to me, is about not just the actual basketball knowledge but also about the general understanding of team dynamics and psychology. When will a team be up? What is the effect of losing a key player? What about the bench, are there "team" guys there or gunners?
It's an extremely complex capping challenge for me, which is why I think I like it so much.
This guy knows what he's talking about. I would say that this dude makes money betting NBA. Why, you ask? Because it's true shit and the type of necessary knowledge one needs to build a strong foundation for betting on the enigmatic National Basketball Association. It's quite telling that his knowledgeable reply was met with
incredulity. Someone retorted to his comment by offering up a recent
example of a moose job that he and many others probably suffered. These
people, I'm sorry to say, are probably not making money betting on the
enigmatic National Basketball Association. I'm not saying they are losers because they fell victim to a moose. Meese happens. The fact that they think the moose job is why they are losers at NBA betting is what makes them losers. Get it? If you say that NBA betting is simply, purely, essentially, basically, or mostly luck then I will say, without doubt, that you are losing money betting on the NBA. It's mostly skill. Sure, some luck is involved. But, not as much as the majority of people think. If you think it's luck, you should stop betting on it. Heads or tails is a game of luck. 50/50. Would I bet on heads or tails laying -110? That ridiculous, rhetorical query does not even warrant a response.
Of course, other, arguably more, important knowledge is needed. Knowledge of the bookmaker. The line. The line movement. You are betting on or against a number. Too many people do not pay heed to why the number is what it is. They just bet into it. Pete Rose was a HOF calibre baseball player and prolific sports betting fiend. His knowledge of that sport was probably supreme. He was a player. He was a manager. He knew his players, he knew the league, he knew the umps, he knew the opponents, he knew everything. But, he didn't know how to bet on it. He was a colossal LOSER at betting on baseball. I tell you this for obvious reasons. No, I mean NO amount of basketball knowledge will win you money on NBA betting without the compulsory knowledge of the bookmaker. You've got to reach or approach the ability to predict the line the bookmaker will set. Only then can you discern if you have an edge.
Another reason why most people suck at NBA betting and blame the refs, the Association, the players, the coaches, and/or David Stern is MONEY MANAGEMENT, or lack thereof. Chasing on a 7:30pm tomato cans matchup 'cus you're tilting after that moose job you suffered in the early game, or doing a "10 unit POD" because your misguided knowledge has you thinking you have a huge edge on the bookmaker. There are times that you can hit a line stronger with maybe a 2 or 3 unit play, but to bet 10x your normal wager is bankroll suicide. So far, in this early season, the biggest wager I've had was a 2 unit play a few times. I don't foresee myself laying a 3 unit play all year. Of course, my wager amount will increase as my bankroll increases, but I will never risk basically 10% of my bankroll on one single fackin' NBA game. What if the moose decided to pay me a visit to rear his ugly head, huge fackin' antlers and everything.
Another reason why most people fail at NBA: BETTING WAY TOO MANY FVCKING GAMES. Someone mentioned something along the lines of limiting your plays to 3-4 on a 12 game card. Truer words have never been spoken. Heed this sage advice. I'd like to bet all 12 games and watch 'em, enduring the highs and lows with each basket, but I don't. It's simply not wise. Risk management blah blah blah.
I only bet on 3 sports. I make consistent profit on all 3 sports. That is why I only bet on these 3 sports. These sports are MLB, ATP/WTA, and NBA. I completely shun betting on American Football, NFL, NCAA, Prep. If the ball is a prolate spheroid (yes, I looked it up), I don't bet on it. Why? Because my knowledge of that particular sport is not that strong. If you don't know the game of basketball, the players, the teams, the stats and why they do/don't matter, then I would suggest that you stop betting on NBA. Bet on sports where you DO have that knowledge. If you can't do that, then you're not a sports bettor. You're an action junkie laying money down on what is surely to be a bad bet.
There are a LOT of things to understand before you can be successful at NBA betting and indeed, sports betting in general. I cut my teeth for the better part of a decade. Unfortunately, no amount of lecturing or didactic diatribes will enlighten the non-believers. They must endure these lessons themselves and then, just perhaps, will they achieve Nirvana.
No time to proofread, already took up enough of my night. I apologize if any of this sounded haughty and/or I decided to mount my high horse while typing this, but it's simply me trying to spit some honest truth. Believe that. Good luck.
is 
I have been betting on sports for 19 years and the NBA and MLB are by far and away the most profitable professional sports for me to wager. When I am playing, I spend about 4-5 hours capping a game before making a decision to unload. I play one game a day when the stars are aligned.
There are high highs and low lows because in each sport, even while practicing due diligence on a play, there are inevitable streaks as a result of the number of games that are played in each sport. I have the longest winning and losing streaks in both sports due to this fact. From my vantage point of combing through Covers, this is does not seem to be a foreign trend. Around this time in the NBA I am rolling(consistent this year), but typically lose the handle before and after the all-star break. Kapo was correct that this is a marathon, not a sprint, but there is no other sport than the NBA where the close wins are so gratifying and the 1/2 pt losses can scar you for the rest of your life. 
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