"I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated
primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight
advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether
or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the
court."
Its not luck when figuring out when it is most likely that NBA players will be putting in effort on a specific day... scheduling is key as are motivational factors. NBA is a sport that, IMO, you need to have a background in to bet successfully. Why? You need to have either played or studied the game intensely to understand and analyze the data. Which trends are important? Which stats "matter" and which can be misleading and deceiving? If you ask me there is no substitute for actually watching the games too, and that's where (if you have a basketball background) you can really gain insight into match-up advantages. The more that you know about each player's game in the NBA, the better equipped you are to figure out how his skill set will mesh with the rest of his team and his opponent's potential weak points (or consequently, strong points).
One large thing I've taken from baseball betting is the long-haul approach and appreciate of variance. It's the same thing with the NBA. You just have to be comfortable that when you are putting your money down, you are doing so in situations where, for some reason, you have the edge.
Betting the NBA, to me, is about not just the actual basketball knowledge but also about the general understanding of team dynamics and psychology. When will a team be up? What is the effect of losing a key player? What about the bench, are there "team" guys there or gunners?
It's an extremely complex capping challenge for me, which is why I think I like it so much.
Excellent post Kap. I agree 100% with what you said above.
Glad you brought you the psychology aspect of the game. This is why the 4th quarter phenomenon as been at the center of debate on the players giving their best only in the last 12 minutes of the game where it really matters. Basketball has probably more intangibles and outside factors than any other sport out there. I don't think any sport has the type of scheduling basketball has. Not to mention around certain times of the year (Thanksgiving, Christmas/New Years, All-star Break etc, NCAA Tournament) the locker room can become much less focused.
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
"I honestly think gambling successfully on the NBA is predicated
primarily on luck. Granted, you might be able to obtain a slight
advantage from doing research, but it really all comes down to whether
or not the players actually feel like putting forth any effort on the
court."
Its not luck when figuring out when it is most likely that NBA players will be putting in effort on a specific day... scheduling is key as are motivational factors. NBA is a sport that, IMO, you need to have a background in to bet successfully. Why? You need to have either played or studied the game intensely to understand and analyze the data. Which trends are important? Which stats "matter" and which can be misleading and deceiving? If you ask me there is no substitute for actually watching the games too, and that's where (if you have a basketball background) you can really gain insight into match-up advantages. The more that you know about each player's game in the NBA, the better equipped you are to figure out how his skill set will mesh with the rest of his team and his opponent's potential weak points (or consequently, strong points).
One large thing I've taken from baseball betting is the long-haul approach and appreciate of variance. It's the same thing with the NBA. You just have to be comfortable that when you are putting your money down, you are doing so in situations where, for some reason, you have the edge.
Betting the NBA, to me, is about not just the actual basketball knowledge but also about the general understanding of team dynamics and psychology. When will a team be up? What is the effect of losing a key player? What about the bench, are there "team" guys there or gunners?
It's an extremely complex capping challenge for me, which is why I think I like it so much.
Excellent post Kap. I agree 100% with what you said above.
Glad you brought you the psychology aspect of the game. This is why the 4th quarter phenomenon as been at the center of debate on the players giving their best only in the last 12 minutes of the game where it really matters. Basketball has probably more intangibles and outside factors than any other sport out there. I don't think any sport has the type of scheduling basketball has. Not to mention around certain times of the year (Thanksgiving, Christmas/New Years, All-star Break etc, NCAA Tournament) the locker room can become much less focused.
In my first full year of betting NBA last year I got slaughtered. I came into this year with a much different mindset, cut by units down to 1/10th of what I was playing, and devoted myself to learn how to win in the NBA. So far, I am floating just below EV, no profit to be made yet, however, as a statistical guy rather than a trends guy, I feel I will be stronger as the season progresses with more "in the year data" to work off of.
Bottom line, its a tough sport that takes more than the 60 second capping alot of us do. It truly is a marathon, and there will be puking sessions in that marathon as well as 2nd winds.....
Dicipline, time, and focus....nothing comes easy. (LOL, I am hoping my own words here motivate me to get back to being diciplined and focused!)
BOL Mik
0
In my first full year of betting NBA last year I got slaughtered. I came into this year with a much different mindset, cut by units down to 1/10th of what I was playing, and devoted myself to learn how to win in the NBA. So far, I am floating just below EV, no profit to be made yet, however, as a statistical guy rather than a trends guy, I feel I will be stronger as the season progresses with more "in the year data" to work off of.
Bottom line, its a tough sport that takes more than the 60 second capping alot of us do. It truly is a marathon, and there will be puking sessions in that marathon as well as 2nd winds.....
Dicipline, time, and focus....nothing comes easy. (LOL, I am hoping my own words here motivate me to get back to being diciplined and focused!)
Mikado ive been betting for 16yrs and taken my lumps its true its a never ending marathon let me say i do my own capping, but yourself and a selct few have really helped my capping keep up the good work
0
Mikado ive been betting for 16yrs and taken my lumps its true its a never ending marathon let me say i do my own capping, but yourself and a selct few have really helped my capping keep up the good work
I bet you could. Remember what I said above about variance? Welcome to Variance Town.
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I bet you could. Remember what I said above about variance? Welcome to Variance Town.
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
I respectfully disagree, Rostos. The 1000's of examples you could list earlier about guys hitting shots at the buzzer or doing things they don't normally do on the court is variance. Understanding when these human players are psychologically more likely to "bring it" on any given night is something completely different. There is an element of randomness to these games, without a doubt -- anyone who denies that is lying to themselves. But that randomness is apart from general motivation in my opinion.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rostos:
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
I respectfully disagree, Rostos. The 1000's of examples you could list earlier about guys hitting shots at the buzzer or doing things they don't normally do on the court is variance. Understanding when these human players are psychologically more likely to "bring it" on any given night is something completely different. There is an element of randomness to these games, without a doubt -- anyone who denies that is lying to themselves. But that randomness is apart from general motivation in my opinion.
I respectfully disagree, Rostos. The 1000's of examples you could list earlier about guys hitting shots at the buzzer or doing things they don't normally do on the court is variance. Understanding when these human players are psychologically more likely to "bring it" on any given night is something completely different. There is an element of randomness to these games, without a doubt -- anyone who denies that is lying to themselves. But that randomness is apart from general motivation in my opinion.
I agree mate, just saying that is another example of another variable, last second shots, unlikely players getting hot etc etc, add that to player turning up, refs blowing whistles, players getting injured during the game.....
Alot of variables.....
0
Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:
I respectfully disagree, Rostos. The 1000's of examples you could list earlier about guys hitting shots at the buzzer or doing things they don't normally do on the court is variance. Understanding when these human players are psychologically more likely to "bring it" on any given night is something completely different. There is an element of randomness to these games, without a doubt -- anyone who denies that is lying to themselves. But that randomness is apart from general motivation in my opinion.
I agree mate, just saying that is another example of another variable, last second shots, unlikely players getting hot etc etc, add that to player turning up, refs blowing whistles, players getting injured during the game.....
I agree mate, just saying that is another example of another variable, last second shots, unlikely players getting hot etc etc, add that to player turning up, refs blowing whistles, players getting injured during the game.....
Alot of variables.....
That we can definitely agree on, it's a difficult and multi-faceted sport to cap
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rostos:
I agree mate, just saying that is another example of another variable, last second shots, unlikely players getting hot etc etc, add that to player turning up, refs blowing whistles, players getting injured during the game.....
Alot of variables.....
That we can definitely agree on, it's a difficult and multi-faceted sport to cap
In my first full year of betting NBA last year I got slaughtered. I came into this year with a much different mindset, cut by units down to 1/10th of what I was playing, and devoted myself to learn how to win in the NBA. So far, I am floating just below EV, no profit to be made yet, however, as a statistical guy rather than a trends guy, I feel I will be stronger as the season progresses with more "in the year data" to work off of.
Bottom line, its a tough sport that takes more than the 60 second capping alot of us do. It truly is a marathon, and there will be puking sessions in that marathon as well as 2nd winds.....
Dicipline, time, and focus....nothing comes easy. (LOL, I am hoping my own words here motivate me to get back to being diciplined and focused!)
BOL Mik
I'm hoping this helps all of us responding what our goals really are. Writing it down, saying it to yourself, only affirms to your intentions.
I partially started this thread because there seemed to be a "lack" of integrity going on in this forum. Too much bashing/calling people out instead of being constructive trying to help others and make connects. Some people think this is all about view counts and attracting attention to yourself. It's not. There is nothing wrong with wanting attention, everybody wants to be noticed. However you got too many people being noticed because of the negativity they carry here in this forum and not off the positive things they do to help this community.
While I do respond to my own threads often, it is not to "bump" my thread to the top of the list. It is to respond to people who value my insight and opinion because I have made quite a few good friends and connections off this site. Also, I'm constantly reading news articles and publishing that deserve to be passed along.
I do not expect this forum to change, but I do hope a few good people take the important things out of this thread and think about it.
0
Quote Originally Posted by RMcCarthy1:
In my first full year of betting NBA last year I got slaughtered. I came into this year with a much different mindset, cut by units down to 1/10th of what I was playing, and devoted myself to learn how to win in the NBA. So far, I am floating just below EV, no profit to be made yet, however, as a statistical guy rather than a trends guy, I feel I will be stronger as the season progresses with more "in the year data" to work off of.
Bottom line, its a tough sport that takes more than the 60 second capping alot of us do. It truly is a marathon, and there will be puking sessions in that marathon as well as 2nd winds.....
Dicipline, time, and focus....nothing comes easy. (LOL, I am hoping my own words here motivate me to get back to being diciplined and focused!)
BOL Mik
I'm hoping this helps all of us responding what our goals really are. Writing it down, saying it to yourself, only affirms to your intentions.
I partially started this thread because there seemed to be a "lack" of integrity going on in this forum. Too much bashing/calling people out instead of being constructive trying to help others and make connects. Some people think this is all about view counts and attracting attention to yourself. It's not. There is nothing wrong with wanting attention, everybody wants to be noticed. However you got too many people being noticed because of the negativity they carry here in this forum and not off the positive things they do to help this community.
While I do respond to my own threads often, it is not to "bump" my thread to the top of the list. It is to respond to people who value my insight and opinion because I have made quite a few good friends and connections off this site. Also, I'm constantly reading news articles and publishing that deserve to be passed along.
I do not expect this forum to change, but I do hope a few good people take the important things out of this thread and think about it.
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
Rostos, All I had to do is read the Washington Post website that afternoon to know to play Atlanta. Practically every local paper covers the team through their practices and shoot around so there are numerous daily reports on the players coming directly through the team. Sure, its a little extra homework. But it really pays off. Just like the 10 before tip blog I was telling people about tonight.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Rostos:
Variances - .............Whether players turn up or not...
Eg, Paul Pierce said before the Atl game, that he could see on everyones faces from the plane to customs to the shoot around that they were extremely focused.......
Then Flip Saunders basically said at the morning shoot around before th ewix raps game that the team basically didnt give a shit.....Wiz got smoked that game.......
u can look at matchups, stats etc etc as much as u like, but that is the biggest determinant.....
Look at tonight, Pistons went toe to toe with the Magic on Tuesday night against a full strength Magic team in Orl....
Tonight, The Magic were missing half there team and smoked a full strength Pistons team....
Why did this happen? Cause the Magic played out of there skin ......
Its all about effort and attitude.......and cause the season is so long, players are humans and no one knows when they will turn up or not
Rostos, All I had to do is read the Washington Post website that afternoon to know to play Atlanta. Practically every local paper covers the team through their practices and shoot around so there are numerous daily reports on the players coming directly through the team. Sure, its a little extra homework. But it really pays off. Just like the 10 before tip blog I was telling people about tonight.
My views on the NBA....I've seen & watched quotes/comments after tough losses from Billups and similar cats whom I bet on and win w/ comments like that team the next game (we allowed them to do X, or we played like shit, etc..) I've also bet trends, which if you catch at the right time you succeed. Motivation is def a top 3 category to worry about (that could mean how has road trip gone, what are expectations, and opponents current status)...If a team has won 10 straight the shitty opponent may try to beat them just for shit's sake...Because there are so many close variables of choosing an NBA team in a 4-6 pt margin losses should clearly be expected. Understanding Pace and Determination can give you an edge on knowing whether a team/total covers or not....I usually get much better as the season goes on, but finding those factors (like I seem to have found Rush for the Pacers Under) can pay off....I gotta think sports like NBA and MLB are determined by little nuasince's while in college you can find bigger match-up/quality differences. Expect the unexpected use to be my motto, but I think you can predict a let-down/explosion if you understand a teams motivation.
0
My views on the NBA....I've seen & watched quotes/comments after tough losses from Billups and similar cats whom I bet on and win w/ comments like that team the next game (we allowed them to do X, or we played like shit, etc..) I've also bet trends, which if you catch at the right time you succeed. Motivation is def a top 3 category to worry about (that could mean how has road trip gone, what are expectations, and opponents current status)...If a team has won 10 straight the shitty opponent may try to beat them just for shit's sake...Because there are so many close variables of choosing an NBA team in a 4-6 pt margin losses should clearly be expected. Understanding Pace and Determination can give you an edge on knowing whether a team/total covers or not....I usually get much better as the season goes on, but finding those factors (like I seem to have found Rush for the Pacers Under) can pay off....I gotta think sports like NBA and MLB are determined by little nuasince's while in college you can find bigger match-up/quality differences. Expect the unexpected use to be my motto, but I think you can predict a let-down/explosion if you understand a teams motivation.
In regards to dealing with stress... I know that you spend a lot more time capping games than most people on here. You spend a ton of time of researching and that can definitely take a toll and burn you out. The best thing to do is CARDIO and I would recommend taking days off once in while. Like completely just avoid Tuesdays or something. There are so many games and opportunities in this sport that its not going to matter if you stop betting for one day a week.
Ive been trying to not look at the day's card until 4-5 PM during the week so I don't think too much about the games. It helps to see how the action/line moves go throughout the day though. Each person's style is different so you have to do what works out best for you, but if you feel burned out TAKE A BREAK.
0
Mikado,
In regards to dealing with stress... I know that you spend a lot more time capping games than most people on here. You spend a ton of time of researching and that can definitely take a toll and burn you out. The best thing to do is CARDIO and I would recommend taking days off once in while. Like completely just avoid Tuesdays or something. There are so many games and opportunities in this sport that its not going to matter if you stop betting for one day a week.
Ive been trying to not look at the day's card until 4-5 PM during the week so I don't think too much about the games. It helps to see how the action/line moves go throughout the day though. Each person's style is different so you have to do what works out best for you, but if you feel burned out TAKE A BREAK.
In regards to dealing with stress... I know that you spend a lot more time capping games than most people on here. You spend a ton of time of researching and that can definitely take a toll and burn you out. The best thing to do is CARDIO and I would recommend taking days off once in while. Like completely just avoid Tuesdays or something. There are so many games and opportunities in this sport that its not going to matter if you stop betting for one day a week.
Ive been trying to not look at the day's card until 4-5 PM during the week so I don't think too much about the games. It helps to see how the action/line moves go throughout the day though. Each person's style is different so you have to do what works out best for you, but if you feel burned out TAKE A BREAK.
A lesson many of us should take...great points Fan
0
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:
Mikado,
In regards to dealing with stress... I know that you spend a lot more time capping games than most people on here. You spend a ton of time of researching and that can definitely take a toll and burn you out. The best thing to do is CARDIO and I would recommend taking days off once in while. Like completely just avoid Tuesdays or something. There are so many games and opportunities in this sport that its not going to matter if you stop betting for one day a week.
Ive been trying to not look at the day's card until 4-5 PM during the week so I don't think too much about the games. It helps to see how the action/line moves go throughout the day though. Each person's style is different so you have to do what works out best for you, but if you feel burned out TAKE A BREAK.
A lesson many of us should take...great points Fan
Tell people who had under in the Cleveland Boston game 2 days where Glenn Davis hit a 3 pointer with 1 second left to push the total over.........
. So much easier to cap games when you know every team is getting 100% every game. 
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