Posted:
#326
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Going to be here for a bit...so I'll post picks in this thread
Posted:
#327
Quote Originally Posted by MrShowtime:
We got robbed.......idiots missed too many free throws down the stretch for the cover
We got robbed.......idiots missed too many free throws down the stretch for the cover
I checked the score after the game was done and then breezed over the highlights and saw that.....
-_- wow...haha
I'll admit, it's a really annoying way to not win, but you'll get used to it over time. :)
Best to be grateful milwaukees last sneak in shot was a two point shot and not a three, blowing not only the cover but ALSO the push.
Bk's older legs were probably super tired down the stretch (determined to win), but could not make enough free throws for the cover.
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Posted:
#328
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:
There is nothing wrong with live betting if you can get a better line on a team you anticipate going on a run and covering the pre game spread. Just Like there is nothing wrong fading coldlanta now that it's starting to fall apart lol.
There is nothing wrong with live betting if you can get a better line on a team you anticipate going on a run and covering the pre game spread. Just Like there is nothing wrong fading coldlanta now that it's starting to fall apart lol.
I felt a lot more comfortable with valpo and Hoosiers live bets then other cappers that had them pre game and spent the whole night sweating on it.
Online books wouldn't offer live betting, if they didn't know that it opens the door for endless forms of chasing and introduces limitless bad wagering habits. It's no different than entering a casino. 95% of the time? Human nature will take over and the bettor will then wonder what happened to their bankroll and their control.
I don't hate it.....but, I do recommend against it. If you're right? You're right. If you're wrong? You're wrong. Don't try to chase out, or chase in a bad bet. If it's bad? It will usually only get worse.
However, on what you said about atlanta? I can appreciate a technique revolving around "fading" teams that are just on a down ward spiral. Teague and millsap let their previous surge go to their heads too much and are playing terribly lately. :/
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Posted:
#329
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:
There is nothing wrong with live betting if you can get a better line on a team you anticipate going on a run and covering the pre game spread. Just Like there is nothing wrong fading coldlanta now that it's starting to fall apart lol.
There is nothing wrong with live betting if you can get a better line on a team you anticipate going on a run and covering the pre game spread. Just Like there is nothing wrong fading coldlanta now that it's starting to fall apart lol.
I felt a lot more comfortable with valpo and Hoosiers live bets then other cappers that had them pre game and spent the whole night sweating on it.
Key thing also, without korvers offense, they are sorta a different team.
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Posted:
#331
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
You're not on my ignore list, so I'll respond to you.
I totally do understand what you're saying. Those posts I sent you? Were just flash analysis I made....the real "pick" came from my system. Which was the direct cause of people on covers having made money. I have personally helped more than one person manage their accounts, and those "analysis" were direct causes for them to make wagers.
Anyone who's followed me from start to finish since posting in this thread, is ahead.
I don't care what happens on any one play. When I say I make an annual salary in a week? Is not me saying "I win 80% of the time while everyone else is winning 55% of the time". Anyone who follows my thread can figure that out for themselves. I bet based on units. And I've come to the point, from my years of playing, to be able to make large wagers on those units.
I only come off as arrogant and egotistical to the sensitive, insecure people. Most definitely those who are in some ways trying to compete with me. Notice, one poster in my thread (who I can clearly see all his posts, but will not respond to), constantly tries to compare his bet selection and win rate with me.
LOL I don't compare myself with anyone. I do talk about how much I win....however, I don't say anything but the obvious. The MAJORITY of sports bettors lose long term. There's nothing arrogant or egotistical about that. I win more money in a week, than some people do in a year If I'm betting $5k a unit and have a 10 unit week.....some people don't make that in a year. There's nothing arrogant or egotistical about that...it's a fact of my experience. Yet, to the insecure or sensitive, it can easily be perceived as arrogant. It is merely a bridge to express a point...which is? I have years and years of experience, betting small and large. Winning and losing....and if I say something about long term or short term? Chances are? I am right. If I give an analysis about a team or a situation or condition? Chances are, I am right.
Can I be wrong? Most definitely! Stick around long enough? I will be right way more than I'm wrong.
My success on the forum is why I have gotten so many requests to be in my email list. If you add up all the times I posted plays (not only in this thread) and how many times I said something about one thing, or condition...I am WINNING. I am AHEAD. My advice is SOUND. Regardless of how you may feel about me personally? What I am doing is effective. Period.
You don't like my personality? ......this is about winning in sports betting....not making friends. You don't have to be my friend to appreciate the work I do.
Anyone who converses with me on a personal level (via pm) knows, I can also be a very encouraging, positive friend, as well as someone you can learn from. I am aggressive when it comes to speaking against nonsense like fixes, trap lines, long wasteful analysis and write ups, etc. Nonsense that has no real effect on the LONG TERM.
LMAO...stick around long enough? And how long is that? I already posted your results. There are no 10 unit weeks in there...there is no right WAY more than im wrong...in the last 10 days you were 9-8.
Dude, you dont verify anything...you dont keep a running tally...you say you are putting 5k on a game...it could be 50.00 for all we know. You make these claims and unless someone wants to fumble thru 13 pages they would have no idea if you were successful or not. I already showed your weird definition of the word "streak" which i went back for the entire month and your "streak" was never more than 2 in a row...and you were about equal in your 2 in a row losses also.
I already showed that your money management is flawed...which is inexcusable for someone with your supposed experience. That is where you lost all credibility with me...but then again, I actually took the time to look you up and make an educated decision.
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Posted:
#332
I can tell you almost for a fact, that the way you defend yourself in here at length in book like form, that if you were truly betting 5k a unit, then you would have already posted a ticket to prove all of us wrong. But you havnt done a very simple thing to do...so I call BS.
Prove you put 5k on the SMU loss the other day...Im sure someone as organized as you keeps a ticket record...post a ticket...just one showing 5k.
You come to a messageboard of strangers and think that if you describe some mythical computer system and tell everyone you are betting 5k a unit that you have this instant credibility.
Also, if you are with some syndicate using some computer system, then what takes you so long to post another pick?...and why do you have to wait until one game is done to post it?...shouldnt a computer system push out the plays in seconds?...and couldnt it do it early for the entire day? LOL.
Like for example: here are the plays for today...bang bang bang...make them "IF" bets. I can see waiting to actually place the bet until a game is over, but then that is another strange occurrence....how many times are you making a trip to a book in a day? You discourage online stuff....thats a click of a button...but how are you delivering this cash? sometime supposedly 15k on one game just a few hours apart.
So if you have to actually hand deliver cash to a book, then its even more strange your style of betting and even more unbelievable. Some of the plays are just minutes before the game starts.
You said that when you are out by phone, you dont access the board...so I am assuming you are communicating on here from your home. You said when you are on here you are not mobile.
So youre in your home....supposedly running the computer system to tell you what to play...you post it....wait for it to finish then post another one a little later...I mean just what kind of system makes you wait throughout the day for it to pick another game? LOL.
There is no system at all ...for all we know you are paying for your picks...one plays....Looking at your style in the detail I went, it suggests no system at all...IT MAKES NO SENSE. Your plays should be ready and waiting as soon as you get up in the morning...lol.
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Posted:
#335
Tailing these two, managed to snag Alabama at 13.5 live bet.
It does encourage and provoke chasing and bad habits but I think live betting can work for you if you take your predictions, as an example the ones in this thread and wait for them to be down mid game to get an increased spread (the opposite of chasing) and trust your initial judgement for the comeback to happen. If your team gets an early lead then obviously you missed an opportunity for a win but I think more often than not there will be at least a single point in the game where you can get a slightly better line than you would have pre game due to your choice of team being down a few points.
I haven't back tested this idea but I think it's not often that a team controls the game from the jump and obviously you wouldn't chase those games where they do instead you just accept those games as gone and only bet when you can get an increased point spread due to a opposing lead in points.
Your theory about Vegas only allowing it because it encourages losing and chasing for MOST bettors could also be said about all forms of sports gambling they take bets on including pre game because of course they allow those too.
Anyhow BOL everyone!
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Posted:
#336
Quote Originally Posted by Killa_Kraken:
Tailing these two, managed to snag Alabama at 13.5 live bet.
It does encourage and provoke chasing and bad habits but I think live betting can work for you if you take your predictions, as an example the ones in this thread and wait for them to be down mid game to get an increased spread (the opposite of chasing) and trust your initial judgement for the comeback to happen. If your team gets an early lead then obviously you missed an opportunity for a win but I think more often than not there will be at least a single point in the game where you can get a slightly better line than you would have pre game due to your choice of team being down a few points.
I haven't back tested this idea but I think it's not often that a team controls the game from the jump and obviously you wouldn't chase those games where they do instead you just accept those games as gone and only bet when you can get an increased point spread due to a opposing lead in points.
Your theory about Vegas only allowing it because it encourages losing and chasing for MOST bettors could also be said about all forms of sports gambling they take bets on including pre game because of course they allow those too.
Anyhow BOL everyone!
Excellent choice on getting the live line at 13.5! Nice cover!
There are not excuses in sports betting, but checking the recap...boy did alabama fall apart second half! :)
Still plenty more games today. Canisius off to a great start.
What's coming up in my system is the memphis/portland game in nba....will see if the line makes it through the final filters and pick a play on that later on.
Live betting can introduce bade habits of trying to "buy out", or "buy in", bad picks. You know? It is true that gambling is bad for MOST bettors, overall....but live betting can end up being worse, if abused and misused.
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Posted:
#337
On the Alabama game this strategy paid off it was a loss for you but not if you waited for even just an extra 3 points on the spread. Obviously 1 game doesn't say much though and when comparing it to the amount of games you would miss due to your team winning from the jump it could still work out badly long term and obviously timing is crucial and this will most likely only work if you choose your parameters pre game and stick to them, making decisions on the fly mid game likely will encourage bad choices.
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Posted:
#338
Quote Originally Posted by Killa_Kraken:
On the Alabama game this strategy paid off it was a loss for you but not if you waited for even just an extra 3 points on the spread. Obviously 1 game doesn't say much though and when comparing it to the amount of games you would miss due to your team winning from the jump it could still work out badly long term and obviously timing is crucial and this will most likely only work if you choose your parameters pre game and stick to them, making decisions on the fly mid game likely will encourage bad choices.
Exactly. What works now, can definitely not be pit 1 on 1 against what can have, or what has, worked, for a long time.
Again nice hit! Just be careful with misusing live betting. It's like a double edged sword. Like big under dog money lines, or, parlays. The chase can last forever.
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Posted:
#340
Quote Originally Posted by MrShowtime:
Loving this canisus pick.
Loving this canisus pick.
I know you suggested not to bet 2h, but had to go for the middle w bowling green
So regardless the earliest the next pick will be is 7pm eastern ?
Correct. Was looking at ULL over sam houston state. My system predicts a 65-58 ULL win and the line is +6.5 A lot of tricky lines set today. The line is set due to the day to day status of good player on ULL's roster. But ULL will give sam houston state a run for their money on every basket.
Also looking at the under rated Ohio state....close score predicted as well.
But, the lines don't filter through our filter system. So, passing on them.
Should have nba later. :)
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Posted:
#341
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
Correct. Was looking at ULL over sam houston state. My system predicts a 65-58 ULL win and the line is +6.5 A lot of tricky lines set today. The line is set due to the day to day status of good player on ULL's roster. But ULL will give sam houston state a run for their money on every basket.
Also looking at the under rated Ohio state....close score predicted as well.
But, the lines don't filter through our filter system. So, passing on them.
Should have nba later. :)
Wow....I am on Sam Houston but if you have ULL winning outright then you should be releasing it as a play ESP w the cushion of 7 points to play w even if something goes wrong
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Posted:
#343
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
ULL goes on scoring droughts. That's why It didn't make it through my filter. Could still cover by 1.5 points...but, the value just isn't there.
ULL goes on scoring droughts. That's why It didn't make it through my filter. Could still cover by 1.5 points...but, the value just isn't there.
Isn't that what the 6.5 -7 points are for ? Just in case ULL doesn't win outright ? If a system telling me the dog is going to win outright and I am getting 6-7 points, I would of been all over it.
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Posted:
#346
Quote Originally Posted by MrShowtime:
Isn't that what the 6.5 -7 points are for ? Just in case ULL doesn't win outright ? If a system telling me the dog is going to win outright and I am getting 6-7 points, I would of been all over it.
Well in hindsight it looks like ull would have been a great pick. Haha. But the long term is the idea here. Being ahead most days. Dont live game to game. Go day to day. Week to week month to month. Season to season. :)
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