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***Game 2: +EV Bettor's Statistical Analysis***

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Posted: #176
Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

I've got my own little baseball thread going...with the only nba pick it being over 2h for the game tonight...   But I can't bite my tongue here unfotunately... If you are using a "statistical analysis in the NBA...to get you an average win margin...youre going down swinging big time in this league" If you are using contrarian theory to cap this league...the right way... you are exremely profitable     I gather Dr. John is smart enough to conclude this on his own... because I do believe he is intelligent   With that said... if you are using anything other than contrarian theory and actually using basketball IQ and stats... Golden state can drub anybody in the league, anytime they want, by 20+   I cannot believe people arent aware of this

That’s inaccurate. Many of the contrarian angles have been accounted for by oddsmakers in recent years. You’ll struggle to cover the vig if you don’t know what number you’re looking for.
 
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Posted: #177

Just to elaborate, ^ Dr. John is not saying contrarian betting can’t sometimes offer value. But blindly fading the public is unlikely to lead to +EV. It must be combined with picking and choose spots based on regression analysis.

 
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Posted: #178

Youve got it so backwards its crazy... and I would love to hear you elaborate

 

The statistcal model is factored into the line...which is their ammunition for the contrarian angle..

 

this is especially true for high profile games and has been winning in the NBA playoffs year in and year out... like clockwork

 

in recent years oddsmakers have been able to use halftime and live wagers to maximize profits and sometimes make it difficult for sharp action to adjust, hedge,middle... but the contrarian play itself before tip is the strongest its ever been

 

not sure why I started this... it wont have an end unfortunately

 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

Youve got it so backwards its crazy... and I would love to hear you elaborate   The statistcal model is factored into the line...which is their ammunition for the contrarian angle..   this is especially true for high profile games and has been winning in the NBA playoffs year in and year out... like clockwork   in recent years oddsmakers have been able to use halftime and live wagers to maximize profits and sometimes make it difficult for sharp action to adjust, hedge,middle... but the contrarian play itself before tip is the strongest its ever been   not sure why I started this... it wont have an end unfortunately

Dr. John’s point is that, it is far from uncommon for the public to be on the “correct” (correct being on the side with line value) side in Nba games. If you are blindly fading the public, you won’t realize there isn’t enough line inflation in many of these games to constitute +EV considering the vig you’re paying.
 
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Posted: #180

I hope we are all smart enough to know that blindly fading the public is a break even play... might even lose slightly after juice

 

RLM, Steam, lines holding despite taking 80-20 lobsided action, highly viewed games (such as the one you have wagered on tonight)... all coming together...is an extremely profitable play... and very profitable when only a few of these signals are involved.

Almost always... without fail...in the nba... will the "statistical capping" leave you hanging... on these games

 

Funny thing with this game though:

Books relatively balanced... great time for "statistical capping"

And anyone who has ever watched the game of basketball pasionately...would arrive to the logical conclusion... That the warriors can drub the cavs... by more than 20 effing points.... any... time... they... want 

 
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Posted: #181

I hope we are all smart enough to know that blindly fading the public is a break even play... might even lose slightly after juice

 

RLM, Steam, lines holding despite taking 80-20 lobsided action, highly viewed games (such as the one you have wagered on tonight)... all coming together...is an extremely profitable play... and very profitable when only a few of these signals are involved.

Almost always... without fail...in the nba... will the "statistical capping" leave you hanging... on these games

 

Funny thing with this game though:

Books relatively balanced... great time for "statistical capping"

And anyone who has ever watched the game of basketball pasionately...would arrive to the logical conclusion... That the warriors can drub the cavs... by more than 20 effing points.... any... time... they... want 

 
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Posted: #182

sry for double post... but anyways.... much respect and bol.... because I do think you are a clever dude... especially with your marketing approach

 
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Posted: #183

Let me elaborate...

 

There will be a time in this series... where based on the line... the cavs will be getting LESS value than tonight... for way less "EV"

and they will cover by a landlslide....statistical analysis will guide you right to the warriors on this game 

 

Just another sprinkle... I win at baseball and I can MAYBE name 20 players names in the MLB....maybe

 
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Posted: #184

Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

Quote Originally Posted by oilers4eva:

we dont give a chit how u got to your plays as long as it wins. how that for a hypothesis
Unfortunately this isn’t the demographic Dr. John caters to. If you are betting your mother’s rent money, DRJ can tell you which side has a bit of value, but that by no means guarantees any singular or even subset of plays hit.
 

0-2 on the night due to some extremely unfavorable shooting % variances. Way she goes.

 
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Posted: #185
Yeah.   Shooting variances.   Lol
 
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Posted: #186
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

Unfortunately this isn’t the demographic Dr. John caters to. If you are betting your mother’s rent money, DRJ can tell you which side has a bit of value, but that by no means guarantees any singular or even subset of plays hit. 

0-2 on the night due to some extremely unfavorable shooting % variances. Way she goes.

Can you still go run into everyone else's threads and tell them how DrJohn's fair line was -10.9? Seems the sensible thing to do after all the self pleasuring you were doing after your first win.
 
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Posted: #187

The fair line was -10.9. This remains unchanged.

 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

May the gods smile upon our plays today. With 2 hits, Dr. J will breach legendary 55% hit rate for nba playoffs.

  
 
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Posted: #189
I fade your pick ...so thanks for the fade. I did not have to time to go in here and tell you before the game start. I did post my play around 4:30PM PST or so.

Keep on posting.
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #190

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

I fade your pick ...so thanks for the fade. I did not have to time to go in here and tell you before the game start. I did post my play around 4:30PM PST or so.Keep on posting.

So you’re also 2-2. Congrats.

 
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Posted: #191

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here

 

crush em next time doc john

 
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Posted: #192
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

The fair line was -10.9. This remains unchanged.

So how come you're not going into every single thread on the whole first page telling everyone how awesome you and your fair line are? Or do you only do sh!t like that when you win a game?
 
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Posted: #193
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

So you’re also 2-2. Congrats.


I only faded you for this game ...how am I 2-2? LOL

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

  Go for it buddy . Just so you're aware, fading a +EV bettor effectively means you're making -EV picks.
I will let you if I am going to fade your pick the next game....most likely I will LOL
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #194

Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here   crush em next time doc john

Thanks tuna. In Dr. John’s experience, people on this forum tend to get extremely defensive anytime someone presents sports investing in a very logical, pragmatic manner. Quite possibly because it makes them confront the fact that they aren’t truly going about it in a strategic manner - one of the biggest red flags for degeneracy.

 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here

 

crush em next time doc john


Before you are calling anyone crazy ...you need to know what this guy did after the last game ...LMAO, talking about clueless.
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

Thanks tuna. In Dr. John’s experience, people on this forum tend to get extremely defensive anytime someone presents sports investing in a very logical, pragmatic manner. Quite possibly because it makes them confront the fact that they aren’t truly going about it in a strategic manner - one of the biggest red flags for degeneracy.


Most gamblers are very nice and are highly appreciative people. Everyone would have appreciated your contribution if you did not go around and touting your bull sh!t model.

Good luck with the next bet.
Every day out of the red is a big win.
 
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Posted: #197

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here   crush em next time doc john
Before you are calling anyone crazy ...you need to know what this guy did after the last game ...LMAO, talking about clueless.

 

I was just messing around... it just always seems more hostile in here than the other sports...bol

 
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Posted: #198

Dr. John your analysis and persona are appreciated, if some people don't like your thread,(as you said) they should just stay away, it ain't that hard. It's also easier tearing than building so ignore them and keep posting. You DO have some fans.

 
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Posted: #199

Baseball's for pissy's!  J/K

6K GOLD/$150 SILVER/ Find JESUS!
 
 
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Posted: #200

Quote Originally Posted by JayJonas:

Dr. John your analysis and persona are appreciated, if some people don't like your thread,(as you said) they should just stay away, it ain't that hard. It's also easier tearing than building so ignore them and keep posting. You DO have some fans.
Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

Quote Originally Posted by gambling-devil:

Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

this is why I stay in the MLB forum for the most part.. peeps are crazy in here   crush em next time doc john
Before you are calling anyone crazy ...you need to know what this guy did after the last game ...LMAO, talking about clueless.
  I was just messing around... it just always seems more hostile in here than the other sports...bol

peace_5

Every day out of the red is a big win.
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