Bucks vs Suns early breakdown

@Camouflage9

 Enjoyed reading this thank you!

If the Suns play the bucks, it would be Middleton on Paul and Jrue on Booker. Anyways series not over yet. 

My take:

-The Bux are a mercurial team.  You don't know which team is going to show up any night.  They have the highest ceiling and the lowest floor of every team left.  Without question the best talent.  A lot of it comes down to Middleton, when he shoots well the team is unstoppable, when he doesn't (more often) the games can be grating.  Giannis can't shoot free throws, is this guy gonna shoot jumpers, or dominate inside.

-The Bux are consistent when it comes to lesser opponents.  They beat up on the weaker teams, not the stronger teams.  It's going to be tough against any good team (like the Suns).

-Perimeter defense has always been a problem with the Bux.  The Suns are not a pure perimeter team, like Utah, who would have been a nightmare matchup.  Nets were a nightmare matchup, only reason Bux won was because Kyrie and Harden got injured.

-Booker is like the Sun's middleton.  If he's off the team probably loses, if he's on the team probably wins.

Based on the 2 games they had-both went to OT-should be a competitive series.  Bux can win it, because they have more ceiling, but can lose it, as they can look terrible too.  imo i give the bux a slight advantage, but who knows-i think the Suns get the home court?

Ayton will get schooled in the paint by Giannis.

The Freak will have no one able to contain him...very favorable matchup for Bucks...one only Coach Bud could hope for in his wildest dreams.

If Middleton gets 20pts/game, Bucks win...if he doesnt, they lose...its really that simple.

BUCKS…

Interesting that public keep looking down on suns, in fact, I think cp3 is still the same, you don’t need him to score 30+, remember when cp3+harden vs gsw

bucks more or less the same compare to last season, just a minor upgrade in PG position

That is the final that I wanted as a fan when the playoffs started. We are very likely to get it with both teams healthy. That would be a privilege!

Any comparison related to CP3 is hard to make, because he clearly is not remotely close to being considered "athletic" in terms of NBA standards. But the PG position especially, has this "brain" factor which is hard to quantify. Stockton, Nash, Kidd, Fischer were great PGs because of this, despite their lack of athleticism... Id take CP3 over any of those 4 (and obviously over Jrue) and I may be flamed for saying that. He has had two very mediocre games vs LAC shooting together with DBook, and if they play this way, the series will be doomed, but I doubt that will be the case. 

Regarding Giannis, I think the blueprint on how to guard him has been clearly provided. You dare him to shoot from outside. Give him space and when he bull rushes try to get the offensive foul and bring the big man to help contest the layup. When he receives the ball in the post, you can foul him hard the minute he turns around and gets comfortable or try to double him quickly.

I actually  think that the combination of Jae Crowder guarding outside and Ayton assisting him inside is better than anything Giannis has faced in these playoffs. Just remember what happened last year when it was Crowder and Adebayo playing that way. Now its time for Ayton to prove his worth helping Crowder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jC3qQzpyyX0 (Jae on Giannis in last years Heat-Bucks series)  I AM WELL AWARE THAT GIANNIS DESTROYED PHX THIS SEASON... BUT EVEN THEN, PHX WON BOTH GAMES. Crowder is playing more now, and Ayton keeps improving literally every game.  

Coaching matters a lot. And you have an incompetent coach on one side, and one of the best in the NBA on the other. You also have the best in-court coach of this era playing in that same team. 

Finally, home court advantage goes to Phoenix. That is huge in such an evened out series. 

I expect the series line to be close to pickem. If we are gifted with such series, I would probably bet Phoenix to win at -115 but not worse than that. I´d consider taking Milwaukee at around +140. Anything in between would be a no bet for me. 

Thanks for the thread. The real good capping starts beforehand when you still dont have series prices. Once the series price is out you become unconciously biased. 

Phx would win 55%+ IMO

@Camouflage9

 You got it bux stats show they are weak against the 3.  Not really a suns strength.

I think the bux should win it but who knows

@gutinstinctus

 Re: Giannnis, that's why Middleton is critical.  If he's hitting shots they can't just jam the lane.

@Guts

”I would probably bet Phoenix to win at -115 but not worse than that. I´d consider taking Milwaukee at around +140”

So you’re basically playing the series line regardless of who you feels will win the title?

if I think the SUNS will win the title why would I bet the Bucks at +140? 

Bux will be slight favorites to win the title.

So if you like Suns at plus $ you can take them.

Good question. To exemplify lets take this to aburd numbers. If you think the Suns will win the championship but you were offered 100-1 to bet the Bucks, it would be a horrendous decision in terms of value not to take that bet. If you were offered 70-1 the same applies, 20-1, 10-1, etc. There should be a point were the Bucks no longer have value. The same applies with Phx, I can think they are more likely to win, but I cannot bet them at -900 odds obviously. 

When handicapping, as I see it, the key is try to put numbers to your leans, and that way, you will be able to objectify your thoght process. In this specific case, what we need to do is to find a way to establish the chance of the Suns winning such series vs the Bucks winning that series. Getting to that number is the art of handicapping, and clearly it is very hard, and rarely we will be exactly correct. Because of this, we need to work with some sort of margin of error as well. 

So for the sake of simplicity let´s say that you think it is 50-50. If the books offer you -110 on both sides, then the correct play is not making a bet. But if the lines are -120 Phoenix (1.83 approx)  and +105 Bucks (2.05) (I use decimals because they are easier to do the numbers with) then if your numbers are right you have value on the Bucks. 

In terms of return on investment the Bucks would have an expected return of 2,5%, and Phoenix would have an expected ROI of -8,5% 

Now, back to your question for my first response. 

I am assuming right now that the Suns would have somewhere between 55% -60% chance of winning that series. So I assume the worst case of my reasoning which is 55% and  the exact line where there would not be any more value for Phx is 1.8. But anything better than that should be EV+ for me.

The same reasoning applies for the Bucks. If I assumed Phoenix worst win percentage is 55% Lets assume Milwaukee´s is not 45% but 40% (the margin of error I mentioned). In such case, +140 actually does not give me any value since I would need to win 41.66% to break even. So, in the end I would need +150 or better to make it ev+ 

This is a quick estimation. I would need to put more time, and especially analyze recent form to come with a final chance of winning percentage. But I think my numbers will be somewhat around there. Home court + better coaching + the best decision maker in the league + the breakout player of the playoffs in Ayton + 2-0 in regular season, + Jae Crowder who has proven to be a good antidote to slow down Giannis, is worth more to me than what Milwaukee offers. Clearly if in the next 2 games, Middleton performs as he did the last 4th quarter, I may balance my estimations, just as what would happen if CP3 and Booker keep shooting at a 30% rate. 

In the end, we should make estimations, and then compare them to the lines, and bet whatever is profitable. I feel most casual gamblers only decide that they like X team and bet whatever line they are offered. 

Cheers and GL!

You are right about both. You can´t fully stop Giannis. Even if you brought Rodman back, you cannot stop him. But last year, Miami gave the blueprint to slowing him down, and they won 4-1 a series where they were underdogs, and made the Freak look like the 2nd best player of that team (a year where he was the MVP). Crowder lead that defense and was backed by mostly by Adebayo. Even if he is WIDE OPEN he shoots 30% which is better than opening up his lanes where he will be 70% or better, plus the and 1 chances.  

With CP3, I also agree haha. He aint 25 anymore, but the good thing for the Suns is that they have Cameron Payne as his backup. So whenever he needs to rest, his absense wont be horrible, and he should be in great form for the endgame, when he is the Kasparov of basketball. 

Lets hope we get that final and are able to dissect it a bit more!