*ATS WATCH* Important Info for this week's games

Getting a lot of response coming in on Sacramento.  I hear a lot of great points. Their recent record could not be much worse, but I see the seas smoothing out shortly with the Maloof family.  They have been not executing well especially in the 2nd half of games recently and it comes from the pressure of being down in the first place.  There is a real lack of maturity going on at this point right now.  They have a lot of talent in Omri Casspi and Tyreke Evans, but they make rookie mistakes.  What they need is a veteran baller to lead this team.  Kevin Martin needs time to develop chemistry with his teammates.  If they can move him for a more experienced player in the league before the deadline (T-Mac?) they could be a 8th seed team.

MotivatedbyCand,

I was actually going to start a whole new thread trying to get a consensus poll on the Thunder.  I feel that you and I are some of the select few that know that this team is for real this year.  You hit about everything I was going to bring up about them.  Some people still don't realize the Thunder basically stole Utah's 1st round pick this year.  You can quote me on this, Maynor will quickly transition into one of the league's next premier guards.  He rapid development and transformation from the NCAA to the NBA has been among the best with league rookies.  Understand this, that he is the one of the only rookies (besides DeJuan Blair of SAS, and Tyreke) that has matched their production level in college to pro ball in terms of minutes played.  Maynor could start for a hand full of NBA teams right now.  James Harden possibly could as well.  What has been the big difference maker this season was the coaching and mindset change in the offseason.  This has mostly affected Westbrook and Durant into becoming more patient shooters and mature defenders.  Coach Brooks has a great relationship with the players and always seems to have the players motivated no matter who they are playing.  Also another great thing about this team - one of the league's lowest in technical fouls at 25 (includes 3 sec vios).  It's a weird stat I know, but it is one you want to keep your eye on from time to time.  As long as they stay healthy and keep the positive mentality, there is no doubt they will give some teams in the West a scare this year.

Thank you very much for your post up on OKC - HIGHLY appreciated.  

Thanks again for your comments and inputs:

HawaiianWarrior
Justbleezy

Good Luck this week

TOTALLY agree with you HK. If you make some ? Fade the bulls here with this 6 game road trip.... though missed the first fade game at GS the other night

There you go...0-1 in counting

I'm not going to take the Bulls off that list quite yet.  They still have some value when betting on them in certain situations, especially at home on rest. 

Every team I have complied on the ATS Watch should be understood in this manner:  These are all teams that have the POTENTIAL to break out at any point.  I'm not saying these are the HOT teams right now, because most of them are not at this point.  But sooner or later this season, all of these teams should be able to beat the spread consistently for a week or longer.  Like I said before, It's knowing the signs of before a streak starts, and more importantly knowing when it will likely end. 

Good stuff everybody!  Keep up the good work!

GS WARRIORS IMO are getting HOTTT!!!!

Very true, shortly after starting this thread I realized I'm gonna get a lot of comments from people who think there are other teams deserve to be on the list.  I agree with a lot of the statements been flying around.  As for the Warriors though, I think their hot streak really comes in after the All-star break - trade - deadline.  The Warriors have some options on upgrades and have free cap room.  It will be in GSW best interest to hold on to Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry.  These guys are starting to work really well together.  However this team still lacks the defensive capabilities to guard more physical opponents.  It's not their offense that's holding them back, it's the defense.  Until I start to see more upward progress on the D for the Warriors, it's hard to put them on a list of teams you got to keep your eyes on.  At home, the Warriors are a hard team to go against though.  The Oracle Arena is starting to draw in some large crowds again.  IMO you give this team 4-5 extra points ATS at home, along with teams the Jazz, Nuggets, and Blazers .  These Arenas all typically require long travel for most teams.  Utah and Denver play in higher altitude.  These four teams also have interesting designs in their stadiums designed to amplify noise.  Opponents FT % seems to be affected greatly here than most other arenas.  Not to mention you often find a lack of focus and patience from opposing teams (especially young, inexperienced ones!)

I've heard this referred to this as the "Gangland Effect" by a few people back in Vegas.  It was almost the same premise.  But I think you explained it better and took the time to write it out in words.  There are quite a few teams affected in this way.  Thanks for taking the time to post this.  Great Info!  Keep it up!

Great info and you are absolutely right.  They need defense Badly.

Evans and Martin shouldn't start together.

I guess I'm one of few... I actually like MIN +6.5

I enjoy it MORE if Love plays 2night...

They shouldn't, but neither one of them seems like they want to come off the bench.  I said a Kevin Martin - Tracy McGrady trade would be perfect right now for Sac and Houston.  They both have history of injuries, but both could also be towards the top tier of NBA in scoring.  McGrady is a hefty price package, but you also get better defense than you would get with Martin.  Kevin Martin for Houston could be huge to them at this point as well. 

Line seems appropriate, but I think it should really be like -9 without Love.  It's looking less and less likely that he will play at all tonight.  1st Quarter is the time to go on the road team in Minnesota.  Not confident about OKC beating anybody badly away from home.  Target Center is in shambles, but regardless people still show up when it's 10 degrees outside.  That's some commitment and dedication right there.  I can see OKC leading for most of the game, however I almost never play teams favored on the road by more than 5.  OKC has opened real STRONG on a consistent basis.  Minnesota has seemed to do the opposite then show up later in the 2nd half and cover games.  GL on your Wolves play today brotha!  It's always good to see opposing views!

Wednesday's Final Card

OKC -1.5 1st Q
MIA +3.5 1st half
Washington +2.5 1st half
Detroit ML +220 for game
New Orleans -3.5 for game
Phoenix -11 for game

Looking at the Clippers -3.5 later.

 GL!

Thanks:

ParlayDante
JoeV
IslandStyle

Your comments and opinions are much appreciated!  GL

OKC -1.5 1st Q
MIA +3.5 1st half very badly haha
Washington +2.5 1st half by .5 a point
Detroit ML +220 for game 
New Orleans -3.5 for game
Phoenix -11 for game

Looking for LA Clippers and the Under to settle my day above even.  Did Miami just not give an effort tonight or what?  I didn't get to see any of the early games.  I'm sure I'll see a replay later but by the box score I think I know best to not trust this team on a B2B even if it's a 1st half bet.

How you feel about the Clips tomorrow?

Not sure about the Clips tomorrow yet.  My team is Denver and I can't stand to watch their games when I bet on them with or against the spread. I know way TOO MUCH about this team and it hurts me a lot more than it helps me.  Line is maybe a little high, but altitude and travel need to be taken in effect for both teams.  Under play at 210 looks more likely.  Both can been streaky at times.

Looking more into the Lakers tomorrow, that is one team you typically just don't want to bet against.  But bet on very rarely in circumstances where they are underdogs.  They play well above average ATS as underdogs over the past two seasons.  +4 is too much with Mo's shoulder in question.  I like the points in the situation.  Lakers could win SU but I feel taking the points is by far the safer move.  Under in this game is my initial feel for it.  Both have great defenses.

nice thread, i like people who use their brains

I still can't believe I found the Lakers at +4 last night.  I'm seeing 1.5 now.

Updated list for 1/25

Many of the teams last week on the list got "hot" by the end of the week.  Lines are adjusted now so it's time to look into this week's "ATS Watch" teams.  These teams all have the capability and talent to take them on a good ATS run here soon.  Some on this list are coming off the road or bad losses and should return to form in the next game or two.

East

Detroit
Milwaukee
Chicago
Toronto
Orlando
Miami
Indiana

West

Portland
Dallas
Golden State
Utah


As usual, the East is a bit more unsettled.  Lots of West teams on the road this week as well so it keeps a few teams from making the list.  All opinions and input are welcome!  I'll come up with some more detailed analysis later about these team and others that could potentially belong.  As always have a great week!  GL!

Hmm. Looks like you were right about the Bulls.

They've been hot.

Hope they beat the Spurs tonight. That'd be an amazing run -- on the road.

Pretty much all season I have been right about a lot of my teams that have gone on surges, and I felt the need to share that info since it was helping me out a great deal.   The trick is pinpointing the games in which teams start playing more focused and competitive basketball.  Even the greatest teams in the league have slumps.  Remember, we are considering ATS records here, SU records I find pretty irrelevant.  Especially at this point of the season where motivation to play is at a low and injuries are high, many GREAT teams in the NBA relax their game about now, especially on the road.