After the Game 5 victory

I'm happy to see that there are some folks on here that are finally looking at this series the right way. The Mavs have been the superior TEAM all along, and it seems like it's starting to be acknowledged. I'm surprised more people don't see what's happening with the line for game 6 though. Oddsmakers know that there will be a large amount of the betting public who still think, "There's no way the Heat can lose" and will take them in Game 6 but not necessarily minus the points. But rather the ML because it's the "safer" play with the rationale being, "I don't know if they'll cover 6 points but I 'know' they'll win the game." Vegas offsets whatever losses it would've incurred with people betting on the Mavs, and in fact probably comes out ahead with all the money it gets back on the juice.

Something else to keep in mind from these playoffs:

Mavs in close out games: 3-0

Mavs in close out games on the road: 1-0

No numbers on the Heat since they haven't been on the verge of being knocked out up until now, but if last night was any indication with Lebron saying it was, "the biggest game of his life", Heat backers can't feel too good.

Quote Originally Posted by tjohnsont:

Nice stat. 

It's telling that's for sure. They've just been in a zone these last few weeks and the Heat are not feeling good about themselves. You can see it in their body language. Wade making that angry face after he hit the 3 in the fourth qtr said a lot. He thought the Mavs were just stabbed in the heart and to have them rebound yet again? Crushing. He knows it just like Lebron knows it.

Gotta wait until the time comes to see where the game is at. Quite honestly I'm less comfortable taking the Mavs in the 2nd half if they have the lead. Last night I was going to pull the trigger and didn't with them up by 3. I prefer them to be down a few points. For whatever reason it seems to motivate them more and it's a better wager. That said, I've played the Mavs in the 4th qtr the last few games before the game started and it hit each time.  

becareful mavsfan  this line simply looks like a trap to me

+6 for dallas is like begging everyone to take them

my heart wants the heat to choke on gm 6 but my mind said it's difference. The series is so close that actually a couple of blown calls will totally change the gm. Now, miami back home & I'll expect them to get the advantage on foul calls...........

I know it's early but so far 65% ATS & 90% ML on dallas

be v careful my friend, mavsfan

Hi hear you Happy and on first glance I could see what you're saying. However, the books are doing exactly what they're supposed to. Miami should win because they are better than the Mavs. But anyone following along knows this is a beaten group playing for the Heat right now. Their heads are scrambling and the scariest thing of all for them is that Dallas started to hit its' shots. Barea and Terry specifically. The Mavs have the killer instinct this year that they didn't have in years' past as referenced by the close out stats above. There's no aura of invincibility around the Heat at home either since the Mavs already won there.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Video-Sweet-8216-Sick-Dirk-8217-impressions?urn=nba-wp4730

Gotta love it. These tools are making fun of Dirk and he goes out and smacks them around again last night. Not a big karma person but I'd say they got what they deserved. And it's only going to get worse in the next few days.

Quote Originally Posted by P4P:

P4P

Having a great time reading all of the "Heat will not lose!" and "Heat will win in 7!" threads. It reminds me of George Costanza saying, "It's not a lie if you REALLY believe it."  

Good times.

I really don't want a gm 7, I want the Mavs end it next gm.

Anything is possible , don't stop to believe  

Oh I agree. As a fan I'd rather have them win it in 6. But there's no fear that it's impossible to win a game 7 in Miami. I think the Mavs have shown they can win any time any where.

But to your point there's always a chance something funky could happen. Wade could start to get his patented phantom calls every time he goes to the hoop like they did for him in the 2006 finals. Who knows? But all things being equal the Mavs have proven to be the smart play and the better closers throughout the series and I expect they'll get the job done in Game 6.

Back to wagering stas and facts that will help you make the right decision with your wager on Sunday.

From the irony department:

The spread in Game 6 of the 2006 NBA finals when the visiting Miami Heat came to Dallas up 3-2 was the underdog Heat +6. Sunday's game is exactly the opposite with the visiting Mavs up 3-2 and going in +6.

As a reminder the team getting +6 won that game 95-92. Will it happen again Sunday? Very likely.

Sorry man but the Heat are 2-0 in closeout games where they are the ones closing out. We've seen how they play in situations that are "the biggest games of their lives" (Lebron's own words) and it's not good.

I've said the Mavs are the better team all along and there has been nothing shown in the series that would say otherwise. And the Celtics were a middling team after the Perkins trade. No two ways about it. I'm not sure how the Bulls won as many games as they did. They were exposed badly in the playoffs. But reality is here now for the Heat and it's not something they are going to be happy with. Their fans won't like it much either.

For myself I don't really care if others are saying it or not it just happens to be true. The Mavs wrap this thing up in the next few days.

That said, I agree it has been fun to watch. Game 6 (and if necessary a game 7) will be enjoyable. Good times for sports fans.

Does it matter? They were 6 of 17 from the 3 point line in game 2 and won that game. 4 of 19 in game 4. And they STILL WON THAT GAME. The Heat are overmatched. Heat backers need to pay attention to these stats to avoid losing anymore money.

Quote Originally Posted by pennyman:

I think they're 3-1. Lost game 4 in Philly and then won game 5.

Mavs in 6, lets get it mavsfan!

Thanks man. 3-1 it is! I have been drinking this evening and just took that other guy's word for it at 2-0. Good looking out! 

Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

Hey MAVS fan, don't get drunk on the Mavs koolaid just yet.......Like Dirk said postgame last night, all Mavs done is held homecourt but I LOVE the spot we are in.......

The fact that we finally broke out of our shooting slump is great but does that mean we can do it again Sunday? There are way too many variables heading into Game 6. Just try listing them and you would be amazed how many lean towards the raveling Heat. Do us all favor and list pros and cons so we can all have something to debate.....

Being a metroplex resident for over 20 years, I vividly remember the Quinn Buckner and the LA asst who was our coach, GOD awful joke of Maverick teams that couldn't win 20 games a season,  I fully realize and appreciate where we stand this weekend BUT.......when you get this close, tread lightly, have faith, perseverance, and fortitude, that the BB Gods will bless us with our 1st NBA title at the expense of the evil, cocky, arrogant, hated frauds residing in South Fla.  Last night was the Greatest feeling every Mavs fan  has ever  experienced, so, just sit back and enjoy the ride. 

Should Mavs fail Sunday, there is still 48 minutes for Good to defeat EVIL.....

No doubt Crusher. I'm a Yankees fan and watched the Yanks be up 3-0 on Boston with a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the ninth of Game 4 and Mariano Rivera on the mound. And then I watched the Red Sox come all the way back. I'm a very firm believer in it never being over until it's actually over.

But at he end of the day covers is supposed to be about helping others with information and sharing thoughts so that's what I'm trying to do. Whether it's the close out stats for the Mavs listed above or the the fact that game 6 in this series is an exact replica of the the game 6 from 2006. Everyone said the Heat were the sucker bet going into that game because the "right play was the Mavs" even at -6 and the books were "begging for people to take the Heat at +6". There's some symmetry here. I just hope that people see it.  

Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

How ironic that you bring up the greatest BB playoff series I ever watched because I feel we are watching one of the BEST finals. To accomplish that, it will have tp go 7. I just have this uneasy feeling that Miami is gonna come out guns a blazin' and we will know in the back of our minds, that this whole season and series is coming down to Tuesday night where DIRK really shows all the world

Everyone said that about game 5 though. LBJ was going to come out swinging and forcing the issue. No way Miami goes home down 3-2. It didn't happen. I honestly don't believe it happens in game 6. The Heat expected it to be easy and now that it isn't they don't know what to do. This Heat team isn't built to handle defeat. I'll be stunned if Dirk doesn't get this done on Sunday night.

Quote Originally Posted by KingElvis:

Nice call on the Mavs!! I hope they get that ring

Thanks KingElvis. I believe they will. And all the evidence points to that happening in game 6.