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2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

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Posted: #101

LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS.......................Warriors finished with a winning ATS record backing them in every game, 3-2. Pacers 3-1 thus far, Raps just 1-2-1  ATS or 2-2 ATS depening if you got closing line on game 1, we would look fore a big game from Raps tonight coming off 2 ATS and SU losses.

Raps -7 (-105) over Wiz --- 7.35 units

Pacers +6.5 over Cavs --- 3.3 units

 
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Posted: #102

CLOSE-OUT GAMES............................

Rockets should get it done tonight with a good shot to cover, we make a small play on Rockets but wait out the line.

 

Jazz have a chance to close-out the series, this series is more evenly matched and with Jazz off 3 ATS wins we'd look for OKC to win and cover tonight in desperation mode and the Jazz closing-out the series in game 6 back at home.

 

OKC -3.5 over Jazz --- 2.2 units

 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by Robd08:


the only problem is you are up only 2.9 units after all of this .... its the same thing in your thread every year all this clatter this and that posting PRs and numbers but the results are not there !! two yrs ago u got slaughtered in the playoffs when the cavs came back to beat the warriors .... last yr instead of betting them huge off a revenge you are betting a measly 2 units on them every game in which they went 3-2 or 4-1 meanwhile you were betting 5 units 1st half and 10 units on the game after they were up 3-1 two yras ago and got hammered the incocnsistency of units bet is your downfall and always will be 

Interesting take.....
 
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Posted: #104
Claw: quick question bud: you had mentioned right before the regular season came to a close that LBJ was having a “down year”. I disagreed then because that comment couldn’t have been father from the truth but I’m curious: what does LBJ need to do in your eyes to have a good year? I ask because he is BY FAR, STILL THE MOST DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE GAME RIGHT NOW. He’s doing it all. You are numbers guy too and he’s giving you your numbers.  I’m very curious to hear your answer. I hope it’s not pure analytics though.....because I don’t see how those go in your favor. This is a respectful question; no trolling. Thanks claw
 
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Posted: #105
As i was waiting....he hit the game winner......
 
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Posted: #106
amazing run claw! keep up the great work. block the haters.
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Claw: quick question bud: you had mentioned right before the regular season came to a close that LBJ was having a “down year”. I disagreed then because that comment couldn’t have been father from the truth but I’m curious: what does LBJ need to do in your eyes to have a good year? I ask because he is BY FAR, STILL THE MOST DOMINANT PLAYER IN THE GAME RIGHT NOW. He’s doing it all. You are numbers guy too and he’s giving you your numbers.  I’m very curious to hear your answer. I hope it’s not pure analytics though.....because I don’t see how those go in your favor. This is a respectful question; no trolling. Thanks claw

I never said he was having a DOWN YEAR, I said he was not having his best year, he had his 7th or 8th best year which is still a very good year but a far cry from his best year.

In some areas he had one of his worst years.

He is still the best player in the league. 


 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by Robd08:


the only problem is you are up only 2.9 units after all of this .... its the same thing in your thread every year all this clatter this and that posting PRs and numbers but the results are not there !! two yrs ago u got slaughtered in the playoffs when the cavs came back to beat the warriors .... last yr instead of betting them huge off a revenge you are betting a measly 2 units on them every game in which they went 3-2 or 4-1 meanwhile you were betting 5 units 1st half and 10 units on the game after they were up 3-1 two yras ago and got hammered the incocnsistency of units bet is your downfall and always will be 

Yes sometimes maybe playing the same units per game works better but sometimes it does not. 

Just hit my biggest play of the playoffs last night along with going 3-0 ATS and shoulds of been 4-0 as I posted to play Rockets but got home late and did not make a play on them..

To play this game one needs to have realalistic expectations, nobody is going to win big every time out, not possible.

If you can get alot of action and even just post a small winning record without getting slaughter and an occasional strong year that is all can be expected.

But everyone at some point is going to get slaughter that is the reality. 

You can't just bring up I got slaughter once without also bring up i won  big once as well, 

All that is , is you looking for anything negative to hang your hat on without considering all the positive results.

I had runs of not having a losing night in NBA playoffs for many, many nights in a row, going .500 at worst.


 
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Posted: #109
Too right, all major American Sports are bloody tough to make money on. If you have some form of system/formula that generates a small profit you're doing well.

I don't bother with regular season and I've come in trying to play too many games in the playoffs myself. I picked a couple of great bets which I really liked but cancelled them out with others that I didn't feel justified in. 

Cant see myself playing any more games until the next round. 

Locked in GSW series -1.5 games which I think is an awesome bet.

 
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Posted: #110
3-0 ATS, won 12 units

Unforetunately I got home late and did not post the Rockets close-out game play.

If I mention a play I am making that play even if I do not come back and post it. Mornings are best for me to post, can't always do it later .

We have 2 close-out games tommorrow and have a great shot to win both but almost certainly will win 1 so very low risk situation .


 
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Posted: #111
Pacers were in great position to possibly get the win, we need to keep things in proper perspective . 

Next 2 rounds Cavs will be making a big step up in  quality of opponents if they get past Pacers.

Pacers ranked 11th in PR I and 13th in PR II, they rank 9th in shooting efficiency differential, 8th in FG % diff.

And Cavs need to pull out last second wins VS this caliber of opp.

They have  2 ....3 pt wins and a 4 pt win.

  Does not bode well for Cavs going forward, not likely to get these fortunate plays at the end of games and we could see some shocking blowout losses for Cavs.
 
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Posted: #112

boss claw whats your pick bos or mil-5?

 
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Posted: #113
MY LINES ..............................................

Bucks -.75 over Celtics 

Will pass on game with injuries , if Kyrie were worth 3.5 pts we'd have Bucks - 4.25 , pretty close to my lines.


Will be on every game tommorrow .
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by simple3:

Too right, all major American Sports are bloody tough to make money on. If you have some form of system/formula that generates a small profit you're doing well.

I don't bother with regular season and I've come in trying to play too many games in the playoffs myself. I picked a couple of great bets which I really liked but cancelled them out with others that I didn't feel justified in. 

Cant see myself playing any more games until the next round. 

Locked in GSW series -1.5 games which I think is an awesome bet.



Exactly, if you can finish with even just a small winning record or units won and do it somewhat consistently that is a very good accomplishment in sports betting.

The reality is there are very, very few people who are educated  enough about sports betting to understanding that point or understand sports betting in general.

And I agree, Warriors should roll the Pelicans  4-2  or better, not likely going to 7 games.
 
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Posted: #115
MY LINES .................................game 6's

Wiz -1.84 over Raps
Pacers -8.09 over Cavs 
Jazz -6.71 over OKC 

we have 1 play based on my lines......................
Pacers -1 over Cavs
 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES .................................game 6's

Wiz -1.84 over Raps
Pacers -8.09 over Cavs 
Jazz -6.71 over OKC 

we have 1 play based on my lines......................
Pacers -1 over Cavs


LEAN ......Pacers -1 over Cavs
 
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Posted: #117
LARGEST MISMATCH TEAMS......................................

Raps +2 over Wiz --- 2.2 units
Pacers -1 over Cavs --- 2.2 units 

with a Raps win tonight all 3 largest mismatch teams will finish with a winning ATS record. 9-5-1 ATS combined in all games or 10-5 ATS depending what line you got game 1 with Raps.

we did pass on game 4 with Warriors OFF 3 ATS wins which was a loss ATS 


 
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Posted: #118
Jazz -6 (-115) over OKC --- 1.15 units to win 1 unit


we have a futures on Jazz to win series which now becomes a ML play at great odds, thus far we are 4-1 ATS in this series.

Jazz should get it done here in the close-out game.
 
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Posted: #119

Yo, good picks man. Question: why do you have Raptors as a largest mismatch team when your line was favouring Wizards (which is pretty much right on the posted line). 

Am already on Utah, gonna be on Pacers probably, and debating Wiz / Raps. 

 
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Posted: #120
Quote Originally Posted by NBA_Insider:

Yo, good picks man. Question: why do you have Raptors as a largest mismatch team when your line was favouring Wizards (which is pretty much right on the posted line). 

Am already on Utah, gonna be on Pacers probably, and debating Wiz / Raps. 

i may be wrong, but i believe this is because of his initial method when he first capped the series,not just the individual games each day. 
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by NBA_Insider:

Yo, good picks man. Question: why do you have Raptors as a largest mismatch team when your line was favouring Wizards (which is pretty much right on the posted line). 

Am already on Utah, gonna be on Pacers probably, and debating Wiz / Raps. 



Largest mismatch based on quality of both teams in this series in any one of 5 key indicators   , in these large mismatches we back the team every game.
 
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Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

MY LINES .................................game 6's

Wiz -1.84 over Raps
Pacers -8.09 over Cavs 
Jazz -6.71 over OKC 

we have 1 play based on my lines......................
Pacers -1 over Cavs


Made a mistake on Raps line, took a quick look this morning when posting and saw the game 3 line with Wiz down 2-0 and receiving 4 bonus pts being down 2-0.

Line should be......Raps -2.16 over Wiz 

which now gives us a play on Raps with a fairly large diff to actual line.

LEAN ....Raps +2 over Wiz

Great spot for the Raps .........................
 
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Posted: #123
Hmm i am following you for a while and i think you 're great,you have a great system that allows you to rank a team in i have to say a greatly appropiate matter.But you have to admit that things change,The cavs are not the same team of the reagular season...not with lebron in win mode and the defense stepping up.Your numbers on them are wrong..and they would be even worse if they had a coach up to the job.
If he played a center(Zizic and thompson) to start with they would be a better team for example.
In any case,what am is saying is that you're leaving too much psycology out of the equation. 
 
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Posted: #124

cAVS/Pacers OVER 201.5 --- 2.2 units

 
 
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Posted: #125

Got this in late but go for live in game plays if possible, will check back later if looks like a great spot

 

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