• Forums
  • Best Betting Sites
  • Sportsbook Promos
  • Best Sports Betting Apps
  • NFL Betting Forum
  • NBA Betting Forum
  • MLB Betting Forum
  • NHL Betting Forum
  • NCAAF Betting Forum
  • NCAAB Betting Forum
  • Soccer Betting Forum
  • Tennis Betting Forum
  • General Discussion
  • Help Forum
  • Guidelines
  • FAQ
  • Forum Updates
    Covers Logo
    Covers App
    Faster picks. Smarter bets.
    All in the NEW Covers App
    Download on the App Store Download on the Google Play Store
    • Sports
      • NFL
        • Back
        • NFL
        • NFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NFL Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NCAAF
        • Back
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAF Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NCAAF Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NBA
        • Back
        • NBA
        • NBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • NCAAB
        • Back
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • NCAAB Picks
        • Injuries
      • MLB
        • Back
        • MLB
        • MLB Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • MLB Picks
        • Weather
        • Injuries
      • NHL
        • Back
        • NHL
        • NHL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • Prop Projections
        • NHL Picks
        • Injuries
      • Soccer
      • UFC
      • WNBA
        • Back
        • WNBA
        • WNBA Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • WNBA Picks
        • Injuries
      • CFL
        • Back
        • CFL
        • CFL Home
        • Scores & Matchups
        • CFL Picks
      • Golf
        • Back
        • Golf
        • Golf Home
        • Golf Odds
        • Masters Odds
        • PGA Championship Odds
        • US Open Odds
        • British Open Odds
        • Ryder Cup Odds
        • Golf Picks
    • Odds
      • All Odds
      • NFL
      • NCAAF
      • NBA
      • NCAAB
      • MLB
      • NHL
      • Golf
      • Soccer Odds
        • Back
        • Soccer Odds
        • MLS Odds
        • Champions League Odds
        • Premier League Odds
      • UFC
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • Election Odds
      • Futures
        • Back
        • Futures
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • MLB
        • NHL
        • NCAAB
        • NCAAF
      • Sports Odds History
    • Picks
      • All Picks
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • NHL
      • MLB
      • NCAAF
      • NCAAB
      • Golf
      • WNBA
      • CFL
      • User Picks
      • Team User Picks
      • Consensus Picks
        • Back
        • Consensus Picks
        • All Consensus Picks
        • NFL
        • NBA
        • NHL
        • MLB
        • NCAAF
        • NCAAB
        • CFL
        • WNBA
        • Consensus FAQ
        • Public Money
    • Prop Projections
      • NFL
      • NBA
      • MLB
      • NHL
    • Betting
      • US Betting Sites
      • Canada Betting Sites
      • Sportsbook Reviews
      • States
        • Back
        • States
        • US Legal Tracker
        • Revenue Tracker
        • Arizona
        • Arkansas
        • California
        • Colorado
        • Connecticut
        • DC
        • Florida
        • Georgia
        • Illinois
        • Indiana
        • Iowa
        • Kansas
        • Kentucky
        • Louisiana
        • Maine
        • Maryland
        • Massachusetts
        • Michigan
        • Mississippi
        • Missouri
        • Nevada
        • New Hampshire
        • New Jersey
        • New York
        • North Carolina
        • Ohio
        • Oregon
        • Pennsylvania
        • Tennessee
        • Texas
        • Vermont
        • Virginia
        • West Virginia
        • Wyoming
      • Provinces
        • Back
        • Provinces
        • Alberta
        • British Columbia
        • Manitoba
        • New Brunswick
        • Newfoundland and Labrador
        • Northwest Territories
        • Nova Scotia
        • Nunavut
        • Ontario
        • Prince Edward Island
        • Quebec (English)
        • Quebec (francais)
        • Saskatchewan
        • Yukon
      • By Sport
        • Back
        • By Sport
        • Baseball
        • Basketball
        • Boxing
        • College Football
        • F1
        • Football
        • Super Bowl
        • Golf
        • Hockey
        • Horse Racing
        • March Madness
        • Soccer
        • UFC
        • World Cup
      • Betting Apps
        • Back
        • Betting Apps
        • Best Sports Betting Apps USA
        • Ontario Sports Betting Apps
      • Rest of World
        • Back
        • Rest of World
        • UK Betting Offers
          • Back
          • UK Betting Offers
          • UK Betting Sites
          • bet365 Bonus Code UK
          • 888Sport Promo Code UK
          • William Hill Sign up Offer
          • Betway Sign up Offer
          • BetVictor Bonus Code UK
      • Betting Guides
        • Back
        • Betting Guides
        • All Guides
        • Glossary
        • Betting Calculators
          • Back
          • Betting Calculators
          • Odds Converter
          • Parlay Calculator
        • Futures Betting Guide
        • Moneyline Betting Guide
        • Over/Under Betting Guide
        • Parlay Betting Guide
        • Point Spread Betting Guide
        • Prop Betting Guide
        • Sports Betting Guides
          • Back
          • Sports Betting Guides
          • How To Bet On Sports Guide
          • NFL Betting Guide
          • NHL Betting Guide
          • NBA Betting Guide
          • MLB Betting Guide
          • NCAAB Betting Guide
          • NCAAF Betting Guide
          • Golf Betting Guide
          • Tennis Betting Guide
        • Teaser Betting Guide
      • Betting News
        • Back
        • Betting News
        • All News
        • Industry News
        • Podcasts
        • Covers Videos
        • Covers Writers
        • Offers & Boosts
    • Promos
      • Sportsbook Promos
      • Canada Sportsbook Promos
      • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Sportsbook
        • bet365 Bonus Code
        • BET99 Promo Code
        • BetMGM Bonus Code
        • BetRivers Bonus Code
        • Caesars Sportsbook Promo
        • DraftKings Promo Code
        • Fanatics Sportsbook Promo
        • FanDuel Promo Code
        • Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
        • Sports Interaction Promo
        • Stake Promo Code
        • theScore Bet Promo Code
        • TonyBet Promo Code
      • Bonuses By Region
        • Back
        • Bonuses By Region
        • Arkansas Promos
        • Arizona Promos
        • Colorado Promos
        • Connecticut Promos
        • DC Promos
        • Illinois Promos
        • Indiana Promos
        • Iowa Promos
        • Kansas Promos
        • Kentucky Promos
        • Louisiana Promos
        • Maine Promos
        • Maryland Promos
        • Massachusetts Promos
        • Michigan Promos
        • Missouri Promos
        • New Jersey Promos
        • New York Promos
        • North Carolina Promos
        • Ohio Promos
        • Pennsylvania Promos
        • Tennessee Promos
        • Vermont Promos
        • Virginia Promos
        • West Virginia Promos
        • Wyoming Promos
    • Forum & Contests
      • All Forums
      • NFL Betting Forum
      • MLB Betting Forum
      • NCAAB Betting Forum
      • NCAAF Betting Forum
      • NBA Betting Forum
      • NHL Betting Forum
      • Soccer Betting Forum
      • Contests
        • Back
        • Contests
        • Contests Home
        • Streak Survivor
        • King of Covers
        • My Contests
    • Casino
      • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Back
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes Casino
        • Sweepstakes No-Deposit Bonuses
        • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Back
          • Sweepstakes Promos
          • Card Crush
          • Casino.click
          • Chanced Casino
          • Crown Coins Casino
          • FreeSpin Casino
          • LoneStar
          • McLuck
          • Mega Bonanza Casino
          • PlayFame
          • Pulsz
          • Stake.us
      • US Casinos
        • Back
        • US Casinos
        • US Online Casinos
        • US Online Casino Bonuses
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • bet365 Casino Promo Code
          • BetRivers Casino Promo
          • Borgata Casino Bonus Code
          • Caesars Casino Bonus Code
          • DraftKings Casino Promo
          • Fanatics Casino Promo
          • FanDuel Casino Promo Code
          • Golden Nugget Casino Promo
          • Hard Rock Bet Casino Promo
          • Hollywood Casino Promo Code
      • Canada Casinos
        • Back
        • Canada Casinos
        • Canada Online Casinos
        • Provinces
          • Back
          • Provinces
          • Alberta Online Casino
          • BC Online Casino
          • Ontario Online Casinos
        • Casino Promos
          • Back
          • Casino Promos
          • BC.GAME Bonus Code
          • Cloudbet Promo Code
          • RainBet Promo Code
          • Roobet Promo Code
          • Shuffle Promo Code
          • Thrill Promo Code
    • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Markets
      • Prediction Market Apps
      • Prediction Market Promos
      • Kalshi Promo Code
      • Polymarket Promo Code
      • DraftKings Predictions Promo Code
      • Novig Promo Code
      • ProphetX Promo Code
      • Underdog Promo Code
      • OG Promo Code
      • Fanatics Markets Promo Code
      • Plus500 Promo Code
    • NFL Week 2
      NFL Week 2
      • NFL Odds
      • NFL Picks
      • Lions-Bills Early Leans
      • NFL Prediction Markets
      • NFL Betting Sites
    Covers Account
    Log in Create account
    Join free Log in
    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

    «First Previous 123 ... 121314 Next Last»
    monkeebooger
    Achilles1629
    theclaw
    midnightprowl
    DogbiteWilliams
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 46796
    Posts: 349
    «First Previous 123 ... 121314 Next Last»
     
    monkeebooger
    monkeebooger
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2006
    Posts: 6374
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 12:24 PM ET #301

    That’s the second time you’ve said that, yet you keep coming back you classless fool. 

    For the record, I’ve never once PM’d you for plays. You just made me check my sent PMs and only time was in 2017 inquiring on site details. Show me proof with date stamps when I begged you idiot.

    No worries, he will return. His little ego cannot handle it. 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    That’s the second time you’ve said that, yet you keep coming back you classless fool. 

    For the record, I’ve never once PM’d you for plays. You just made me check my sent PMs and only time was in 2017 inquiring on site details. Show me proof with date stamps when I begged you idiot.

    No worries, he will return. His little ego cannot handle it. 

     
    Achilles1629
    Achilles1629
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 12504
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 12:36 PM ET #302

    monkeed@ck: sure I will come back because once again you misguide people with your antics. Go ahead and look up my last nba playoff thread before this year’s. You will see yourself at work much like how you are in SW and Claw’s threads this year. Message upon message in that thread you will find yourself thanking me for the plays and asking for plays. It’s all there. Anybody that doesn’t think so, look it up. See,when things go well and u get your wins from others, all is great, but when someone doesn’t hit every play and you tail and lose, the tone changes. That’s a leach. 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    monkeed@ck: sure I will come back because once again you misguide people with your antics. Go ahead and look up my last nba playoff thread before this year’s. You will see yourself at work much like how you are in SW and Claw’s threads this year. Message upon message in that thread you will find yourself thanking me for the plays and asking for plays. It’s all there. Anybody that doesn’t think so, look it up. See,when things go well and u get your wins from others, all is great, but when someone doesn’t hit every play and you tail and lose, the tone changes. That’s a leach. 

     
    Achilles1629
    Achilles1629
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 12504
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 12:46 PM ET #303

    Post # 304 is spot on. 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Post # 304 is spot on. 

     
    Achilles1629
    Achilles1629
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 12504
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 12:55 PM ET #304

    Kimoin: Oh I do my own thing bud. You, like many, who feel the need to chime in need to seek first to understand then be understood. I was going about my business and the almighty claw who in the same nite posted a “lean” decided to come into my thread after a 6-1 nite and be a pud. People act like I’m the one STARTING all this nonsense. Sorry, incorrect. Monkeed@ck leached picks off me, loved life but then the tone changes after he tailed and lost. That’s scum. As for claw, anybody who feels it necessary to write a “look at me” synopsis about oneself yet brags about leans? 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Kimoin: Oh I do my own thing bud. You, like many, who feel the need to chime in need to seek first to understand then be understood. I was going about my business and the almighty claw who in the same nite posted a “lean” decided to come into my thread after a 6-1 nite and be a pud. People act like I’m the one STARTING all this nonsense. Sorry, incorrect. Monkeed@ck leached picks off me, loved life but then the tone changes after he tailed and lost. That’s scum. As for claw, anybody who feels it necessary to write a “look at me” synopsis about oneself yet brags about leans? 

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 4:20 PM ET #305

    MY LINES ....................................GAME 7

    Celtics -10.21 over Cavs 
    Celtics -3.43 ......playoff only stats.

    Obviously we know Cavs regular season rating is not good, Celtics without Kyrie but my lines have been very good in Celtics games.

    We do have a huge line adjustment in game 7 with Celtics now the favorite by 2 to 2.5. Game 1 opened Celtics +1, a 3 to 3.5 pt difference.


    would suggest Cavs cover the line.

    Large line adjustment on the total as well, game 1 opened 204 and now line down to 198.5 and dropping.

    Suggest a over total.

    Between both plays very unlikely to go 0-2.

    Public was on a 1-3 run, winning a low % game and losing 2 big % games and we suggested the public would bounce back and they did winning 2 straight and are now on Cavs at 52%. Might be a time to fade the public off 2 wins.

    We wait-out the lines see how they go before game time.   
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    MY LINES ....................................GAME 7

    Celtics -10.21 over Cavs 
    Celtics -3.43 ......playoff only stats.

    Obviously we know Cavs regular season rating is not good, Celtics without Kyrie but my lines have been very good in Celtics games.

    We do have a huge line adjustment in game 7 with Celtics now the favorite by 2 to 2.5. Game 1 opened Celtics +1, a 3 to 3.5 pt difference.


    would suggest Cavs cover the line.

    Large line adjustment on the total as well, game 1 opened 204 and now line down to 198.5 and dropping.

    Suggest a over total.

    Between both plays very unlikely to go 0-2.

    Public was on a 1-3 run, winning a low % game and losing 2 big % games and we suggested the public would bounce back and they did winning 2 straight and are now on Cavs at 52%. Might be a time to fade the public off 2 wins.

    We wait-out the lines see how they go before game time.   
     
    midnightprowl
    midnightprowl
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2012
    Posts: 8779
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 4:25 PM ET #306

    Great info claw!!!

     

    More confident in cavs...

     

    BOL tonight

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Great info claw!!!

     

    More confident in cavs...

     

    BOL tonight

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 4:30 PM ET #307

    Based on history Celtics with a 2-0 series lead and a 3-2 series lead is high % they win the series which means they should win game 7, does not mean they cover, but if the win with a small line they likely will cover.

    At -2.5 they have 2 points to work with to win but not cover. Slim  but not impossible.

    game 7's have a history of unders, but the 2 game 7's this year both went over, but could be due a regression back to the history of unders. 

    there is info that points in both directions, one needs to decide what info is better or we just pass on the game. 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Based on history Celtics with a 2-0 series lead and a 3-2 series lead is high % they win the series which means they should win game 7, does not mean they cover, but if the win with a small line they likely will cover.

    At -2.5 they have 2 points to work with to win but not cover. Slim  but not impossible.

    game 7's have a history of unders, but the 2 game 7's this year both went over, but could be due a regression back to the history of unders. 

    there is info that points in both directions, one needs to decide what info is better or we just pass on the game. 
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 27, 2018 - 4:38 PM ET #308

    Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

    Great info claw!!!

     

    More confident in cavs...

     

    BOL tonight



    to many if's, and's  or but's in this game and the entire series as well.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

    Great info claw!!!

     

    More confident in cavs...

     

    BOL tonight



    to many if's, and's  or but's in this game and the entire series as well.
     
    Achilles1629
    Achilles1629
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 12504
    Posted: May. 28, 2018 - 12:57 AM ET #309

    Dead last in the “PR 1” & “PR 2” in the almighty claws  opening arguments on pg 1 and 2 yet Cavs are going to the finals? Say it ain’t so method man! Also, we heard all playoffs lebron was having a down year from claw???? I’d say other than winning 3 rings, this is the greatest season he’s ever had. Only a blind man would disagree. I wonder if Vegas ever had a prop on indiv. scoring set at 38.5? Yeah....it was for the guy who is “ having a down year” and who is averaging a trip dub in the playoffs which I think the claw said is an overrated stat......on 2 the finals.....!

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    Dead last in the “PR 1” & “PR 2” in the almighty claws  opening arguments on pg 1 and 2 yet Cavs are going to the finals? Say it ain’t so method man! Also, we heard all playoffs lebron was having a down year from claw???? I’d say other than winning 3 rings, this is the greatest season he’s ever had. Only a blind man would disagree. I wonder if Vegas ever had a prop on indiv. scoring set at 38.5? Yeah....it was for the guy who is “ having a down year” and who is averaging a trip dub in the playoffs which I think the claw said is an overrated stat......on 2 the finals.....!

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 28, 2018 - 2:26 PM ET #310

    MY LINES .............................game 7

     

    Rockets -.42 over Warriors 

     

    close-out games we do not use my lines, we back the team that we have solid info will win the series.

     

    we do favor Warriors but Rockets also very strong and about even in PR II, we would look for Warriors to win SU but not strong enough to make a play

     

    we have a huge line adjustment on the game and total. opening line game 1 was Rockets -1.5 but now getting +6, of course Paul's injury is part of the move but Paul would have to be worth 5.5 pts, not likely. suggest Rockets, line adjustments did pick-up the win on game 7 yesterday.

    Total opened 225 but now way down to 207, wow, huge adjustment, big-time over-reaction , would look for an over game for sure.

     

    And this series is off 2 losses in line adjustments as well and the Celtics/Cavs off a loss, regression baby, game goes over here.

     

    to many if's, and's or but's on the side 

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    MY LINES .............................game 7

     

    Rockets -.42 over Warriors 

     

    close-out games we do not use my lines, we back the team that we have solid info will win the series.

     

    we do favor Warriors but Rockets also very strong and about even in PR II, we would look for Warriors to win SU but not strong enough to make a play

     

    we have a huge line adjustment on the game and total. opening line game 1 was Rockets -1.5 but now getting +6, of course Paul's injury is part of the move but Paul would have to be worth 5.5 pts, not likely. suggest Rockets, line adjustments did pick-up the win on game 7 yesterday.

    Total opened 225 but now way down to 207, wow, huge adjustment, big-time over-reaction , would look for an over game for sure.

     

    And this series is off 2 losses in line adjustments as well and the Celtics/Cavs off a loss, regression baby, game goes over here.

     

    to many if's, and's or but's on the side 

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 28, 2018 - 2:39 PM ET #311

    Rockets/Warriors OVER 207.5 --- 2.2 units
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Rockets/Warriors OVER 207.5 --- 2.2 units
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 29, 2018 - 7:31 AM ET #312

    totals --- 0-1 , lost 2.2 units

    Warriors did what they do, dominate the 3rd quarter again, and our PR's did it again with our favorite making yet another finals .

    Harden once again was dreadful on 3's...... 2 of 13. He has had many dreadful 3 pt shooting games since the all-star break.

    Much like we talked about , teams taking so many 3's is flat-out just to hard to be consistent game to game to game.

    And all that was on display in game 7.  The Rockets FG % of 46% -46.2% = (-.2%) was indicative of their inconsistent shooting.

    Even the teams to win titles like the Warriors who take a good amount of 3's , put up a strong FG % differential. 

    As I stated before, I not sure we will see a team win the title taking so many 3's, but hey there might be an exception come along but would be a rarity.


    Warriors coming into game 1 off 2 ATS wins and a 29 point big blowout win and they are 3-0 ATS in game 1's thus far in playoffs, not a good spot for the Warriors.

    Cavs off 2 ATS wins as well , not the best of spots but not as bad as Warriors.

    If Warriors win big in game 1 could possibilty put them in a strong regression spot over the next couple of games.

    Most likely Cavs should cover 1 of the 1st 2 games.


    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    totals --- 0-1 , lost 2.2 units

    Warriors did what they do, dominate the 3rd quarter again, and our PR's did it again with our favorite making yet another finals .

    Harden once again was dreadful on 3's...... 2 of 13. He has had many dreadful 3 pt shooting games since the all-star break.

    Much like we talked about , teams taking so many 3's is flat-out just to hard to be consistent game to game to game.

    And all that was on display in game 7.  The Rockets FG % of 46% -46.2% = (-.2%) was indicative of their inconsistent shooting.

    Even the teams to win titles like the Warriors who take a good amount of 3's , put up a strong FG % differential. 

    As I stated before, I not sure we will see a team win the title taking so many 3's, but hey there might be an exception come along but would be a rarity.


    Warriors coming into game 1 off 2 ATS wins and a 29 point big blowout win and they are 3-0 ATS in game 1's thus far in playoffs, not a good spot for the Warriors.

    Cavs off 2 ATS wins as well , not the best of spots but not as bad as Warriors.

    If Warriors win big in game 1 could possibilty put them in a strong regression spot over the next couple of games.

    Most likely Cavs should cover 1 of the 1st 2 games.


     
    DogbiteWilliams
    DogbiteWilliams
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Sep, 2015
    Posts: 6447
    Posted: May. 29, 2018 - 12:22 PM ET #313

    According to this link, Las Vegas is giving CLV virtually no chance at taking the title:

    https://thebiglead.com/2018/05/29/vegas-is-saying-the-cavs-have-no-chance-vs-the-warriors/

    GS opened at -12 for Game 1 at the Westgate, which ties for the biggest spread in a Finals game for the last 25 years.  The series price:

    CLV    +650
    GS     -1000

    Jeff Sagarin make GS 5 to 5.5 points better than CLV.  It looks grim for CLV fans.

    I thought CLV having more rest might provide an edge in Game 1, but the query says playoff road dogs with more rest in Game 1 are only 15-25-1 ATS.

    playoffs = 1 and AD and series game = 1 and rest > o:rest

    I just can't lay 12 points with GS, especially since Sagarin's power ratings says CLV +12 has the edge.  I will pass.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    According to this link, Las Vegas is giving CLV virtually no chance at taking the title:

    https://thebiglead.com/2018/05/29/vegas-is-saying-the-cavs-have-no-chance-vs-the-warriors/

    GS opened at -12 for Game 1 at the Westgate, which ties for the biggest spread in a Finals game for the last 25 years.  The series price:

    CLV    +650
    GS     -1000

    Jeff Sagarin make GS 5 to 5.5 points better than CLV.  It looks grim for CLV fans.

    I thought CLV having more rest might provide an edge in Game 1, but the query says playoff road dogs with more rest in Game 1 are only 15-25-1 ATS.

    playoffs = 1 and AD and series game = 1 and rest > o:rest

    I just can't lay 12 points with GS, especially since Sagarin's power ratings says CLV +12 has the edge.  I will pass.
     
    bum
    bum
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 8442
    Posted: May. 29, 2018 - 11:27 PM ET #314

    an_popcorn

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    an_popcorn

     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 8:33 PM ET #315

    POWER RATINGS REGULAR SEASON.................

    PR I

    Warriors 10.53....by 13.22
    Cavs (-2.69)

    Teams 1.25 or better since 1980................22-5 at winning the series


    PR II

    Warriors 54.3.......by 6.73
    Cavs 47.57

    Teams better by .75 are 25-6 at winning the series




    MY LINES...............................

    Warriors -17.22 over Cavs.




    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    POWER RATINGS REGULAR SEASON.................

    PR I

    Warriors 10.53....by 13.22
    Cavs (-2.69)

    Teams 1.25 or better since 1980................22-5 at winning the series


    PR II

    Warriors 54.3.......by 6.73
    Cavs 47.57

    Teams better by .75 are 25-6 at winning the series




    MY LINES...............................

    Warriors -17.22 over Cavs.




     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 8:49 PM ET #316

    PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATINGS............................

    PR I..........

    Warriors 9.37................by 8.22
    Cavs 1.15

    PR II.....

    Warriors 55.75....... by 5.3
    Cavs 50.45


    PLAYOFF ONLY MY LINES............................

    Warriors -12.22 over Cavs 


    Huge mismatch in this series, these are the classic examples of when the public and media will be correct with call of very little to no chance for the Cavs in this series.

    The one thing can give the Cavs a chance would be REGRESSION and the Warriors could be on the brink of going into Regression mode if they get a big win tonight.

    Most likely regression will not help the Cavs win the series but very well can help them cover the spread and that might be the area the public and media gets wrong thinking Warriors win in many blow-outs.

    But first Warriors will need to get to that regression mode.

    Right now they are not there yet but are in a not good spot coming off a 29 point big blow-out and a 2 ATS wins.

    Powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very good plays in game 1's already 3-0 AATS in the playoffs but could be due a regression there.

    Warriors also of a series of trailing the Rockets after 5 games, powerhouse teams do not but themselves in these bad situations very often as Warriors will look to get out to a lead in series to avoid trailing in this series which points to Warriors game 1.

    But Warriors have alot of room to win but not cover, 


    LEAN --- Cavs +12.5 over Warriors game 1.

    we lean Cavs based on the spot but Warriors have some history in game 1 as a powerhouse team ,  my lines in regular season in game 1's is only about 50%.

    Had the Warriors not trailed the way they did VS Rockets  we'd take action on Cavs based on the spot,  
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATINGS............................

    PR I..........

    Warriors 9.37................by 8.22
    Cavs 1.15

    PR II.....

    Warriors 55.75....... by 5.3
    Cavs 50.45


    PLAYOFF ONLY MY LINES............................

    Warriors -12.22 over Cavs 


    Huge mismatch in this series, these are the classic examples of when the public and media will be correct with call of very little to no chance for the Cavs in this series.

    The one thing can give the Cavs a chance would be REGRESSION and the Warriors could be on the brink of going into Regression mode if they get a big win tonight.

    Most likely regression will not help the Cavs win the series but very well can help them cover the spread and that might be the area the public and media gets wrong thinking Warriors win in many blow-outs.

    But first Warriors will need to get to that regression mode.

    Right now they are not there yet but are in a not good spot coming off a 29 point big blow-out and a 2 ATS wins.

    Powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very good plays in game 1's already 3-0 AATS in the playoffs but could be due a regression there.

    Warriors also of a series of trailing the Rockets after 5 games, powerhouse teams do not but themselves in these bad situations very often as Warriors will look to get out to a lead in series to avoid trailing in this series which points to Warriors game 1.

    But Warriors have alot of room to win but not cover, 


    LEAN --- Cavs +12.5 over Warriors game 1.

    we lean Cavs based on the spot but Warriors have some history in game 1 as a powerhouse team ,  my lines in regular season in game 1's is only about 50%.

    Had the Warriors not trailed the way they did VS Rockets  we'd take action on Cavs based on the spot,  
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 8:58 PM ET #317

    Warriors 3-0 ATS in game 1's in the finals.

    My lines game 1 in finals is 8-9 ATS, but not sure if last couple of years included .

    game 2's much better for my lines.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Warriors 3-0 ATS in game 1's in the finals.

    My lines game 1 in finals is 8-9 ATS, but not sure if last couple of years included .

    game 2's much better for my lines.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 9:06 PM ET #318

    MY LINES DID win all 3 years on Warriors in finals, so now 11-9 ATS, still only about 50%.

    My lines game 2's giving 2 pts to team trailing in series 8-2 ATS with a 2.5 pt diff since 1992 to 2016.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    MY LINES DID win all 3 years on Warriors in finals, so now 11-9 ATS, still only about 50%.

    My lines game 2's giving 2 pts to team trailing in series 8-2 ATS with a 2.5 pt diff since 1992 to 2016.

     
    bum
    bum
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2008
    Posts: 8442
    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 9:26 PM ET #319

    peace_5

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User

    peace_5

     
    LoveCFB1_
    LoveCFB1_
    Veteran
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Oct, 2015
    Posts: 3326
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2018 - 4:08 AM ET #320

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2018 - 8:13 AM ET #321

    leans --- 1-0

    Warriors almost covered in OT, wow, incredible if they would have.

    LBJ was spectacular once again, now he looks like MJ, but he was short 2 rebs and 2 assist on a triple double.

    19 of 32 for 59%, 3 of 7....on 3's for 30% .

    When LBJ shoots well the Cavs  win and Cavs were right there to win, when LBJ gets a triple double he mostly shoots poorly and Cavs lose many times,  we have seen it many times in this years playoffs .

    So had he shot 12 of 32 for 38% but got 2 more rebs and 2 more assists giving him a triple double he would of had a superior game ?

    Nonsense.

    The game he had was far superior to many of his triple double games, in fact, not even in the same league as many of his triple double games when he shot terrible.

    If we give scoring and FG % it's true value then scoring 20 pts while shooting 50% or better and then see who has more triple doubles..

    Or better yet scoring 25 pts while shooting 55%. MJ likely wins hands down.

    Scoring 10 pts while shooting any ole FG % is retarded.

    All it tells you is the player is very good in 2 areas, mostly rebs and assist. So unless a player is exceptional at both those areas he will not get alot of triple doubles but can end up with many games of being 1, 2 or 3 short of a triple double.while shooting lights out and scoring alot of pts, just like LBJ did in game 1 AND game 7 VS Celtics when he was 1 assist away from a triple double, now he is playing unstoppable on offense  very much like MJ.


    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    leans --- 1-0

    Warriors almost covered in OT, wow, incredible if they would have.

    LBJ was spectacular once again, now he looks like MJ, but he was short 2 rebs and 2 assist on a triple double.

    19 of 32 for 59%, 3 of 7....on 3's for 30% .

    When LBJ shoots well the Cavs  win and Cavs were right there to win, when LBJ gets a triple double he mostly shoots poorly and Cavs lose many times,  we have seen it many times in this years playoffs .

    So had he shot 12 of 32 for 38% but got 2 more rebs and 2 more assists giving him a triple double he would of had a superior game ?

    Nonsense.

    The game he had was far superior to many of his triple double games, in fact, not even in the same league as many of his triple double games when he shot terrible.

    If we give scoring and FG % it's true value then scoring 20 pts while shooting 50% or better and then see who has more triple doubles..

    Or better yet scoring 25 pts while shooting 55%. MJ likely wins hands down.

    Scoring 10 pts while shooting any ole FG % is retarded.

    All it tells you is the player is very good in 2 areas, mostly rebs and assist. So unless a player is exceptional at both those areas he will not get alot of triple doubles but can end up with many games of being 1, 2 or 3 short of a triple double.while shooting lights out and scoring alot of pts, just like LBJ did in game 1 AND game 7 VS Celtics when he was 1 assist away from a triple double, now he is playing unstoppable on offense  very much like MJ.


     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2018 - 8:20 AM ET #322

    game 2 Cavs in a bad spot, off 3 ATS wins and now Warriors are safely out of any regression mode and likely the flood gates will open and the Warriors are going to roll.

    We did expect Cavs to cover one of 1st 2 games and now we expect Warriors to cover one of next 2 games, likely game 2.

    Very good spot on Warriors for game 2 and my lines based on regular season .

    LBJ will likely have a regression and not shoot as well playing on the road. 
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    game 2 Cavs in a bad spot, off 3 ATS wins and now Warriors are safely out of any regression mode and likely the flood gates will open and the Warriors are going to roll.

    We did expect Cavs to cover one of 1st 2 games and now we expect Warriors to cover one of next 2 games, likely game 2.

    Very good spot on Warriors for game 2 and my lines based on regular season .

    LBJ will likely have a regression and not shoot as well playing on the road. 
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2018 - 7:16 AM ET #323

    LBJ just tied MJ with 109...... 30 point playoff games.

    MJ took 179 games to LBJ's 236.....57 more games then MJ.

    MJ had a 30 game every 1.64 games he played in, LBJ every 2.17, not even all that close.

    Here might be a reason why...............................

    In NBA Finals.....MJ shot his regular season FG % in 11 of 17 games  64.7%

    LBJ 5 of 18 27.8%

    MJ shot within 5% of regular season ave 14 of 17 times 82.4%
    LBJ 6 of 18 ....33.3%

    MJ shot his ave far more often almost double what LBJ could shot within 5% of his.

    MJ did not just beat LBJ , he crushed him in his first 17 NBA Finals games to LBJ first 18 NBA Finals games 


    MJ scored his regular season ave or better in 12 of 17 games 70.6 %
    LBJ 5 of 18 ...27.8 %

    MJ scored within 5 points of regular season scoring ave 17 of 17 times 100%
    LBJ 10 of 18 times 55.56 %

    When it comes to scoring on the biggest stage MJ crushes LBJ in the first 17 to 18 games played.


    Hence why it took LBJ so many more games to get to 109.

    That also brings up a point about triple doubles, the reason LBJ has more.

    If you remember back in 2011 when LBJ could not solve the defense of the Mavs and did not even want to ball.

    Remember that ???

    When reporters ask him about his poor offense he refuse to address the subject but he said, did you guys see what else I was doing , rebounding, playing defense , passing to help my team win, and yes he did all those things.

    Hence why he ended up with triple doubles because once again scoring 10 points is so damn easy a player can shoot the ball 20% below his ave and easily score 10 points.

    When LBJ can not score he gets triple doubles, when he shoots well below his regular season ave, which is quite a bit he then does other things to get the triple double.

    We broke down his triple doubles every one this post season and they almost every one came in a game he shot poorly.

    When he shoots 50% or better he rarely gets a triple double, he might have 1 this year of the many he had, but then again look how often MJ shot the ball well, far more often then LBJ.

    If I have time I will break down every triple double for LBJ and MJ in the finals. And MJ will likely win if we make scoring far more challenging then scoring a measly 10 points on low FG % shooting. 

    Remember , FG % has the highest correlation to winning an NBA Game.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    LBJ just tied MJ with 109...... 30 point playoff games.

    MJ took 179 games to LBJ's 236.....57 more games then MJ.

    MJ had a 30 game every 1.64 games he played in, LBJ every 2.17, not even all that close.

    Here might be a reason why...............................

    In NBA Finals.....MJ shot his regular season FG % in 11 of 17 games  64.7%

    LBJ 5 of 18 27.8%

    MJ shot within 5% of regular season ave 14 of 17 times 82.4%
    LBJ 6 of 18 ....33.3%

    MJ shot his ave far more often almost double what LBJ could shot within 5% of his.

    MJ did not just beat LBJ , he crushed him in his first 17 NBA Finals games to LBJ first 18 NBA Finals games 


    MJ scored his regular season ave or better in 12 of 17 games 70.6 %
    LBJ 5 of 18 ...27.8 %

    MJ scored within 5 points of regular season scoring ave 17 of 17 times 100%
    LBJ 10 of 18 times 55.56 %

    When it comes to scoring on the biggest stage MJ crushes LBJ in the first 17 to 18 games played.


    Hence why it took LBJ so many more games to get to 109.

    That also brings up a point about triple doubles, the reason LBJ has more.

    If you remember back in 2011 when LBJ could not solve the defense of the Mavs and did not even want to ball.

    Remember that ???

    When reporters ask him about his poor offense he refuse to address the subject but he said, did you guys see what else I was doing , rebounding, playing defense , passing to help my team win, and yes he did all those things.

    Hence why he ended up with triple doubles because once again scoring 10 points is so damn easy a player can shoot the ball 20% below his ave and easily score 10 points.

    When LBJ can not score he gets triple doubles, when he shoots well below his regular season ave, which is quite a bit he then does other things to get the triple double.

    We broke down his triple doubles every one this post season and they almost every one came in a game he shot poorly.

    When he shoots 50% or better he rarely gets a triple double, he might have 1 this year of the many he had, but then again look how often MJ shot the ball well, far more often then LBJ.

    If I have time I will break down every triple double for LBJ and MJ in the finals. And MJ will likely win if we make scoring far more challenging then scoring a measly 10 points on low FG % shooting. 

    Remember , FG % has the highest correlation to winning an NBA Game.
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2018 - 7:50 AM ET #324

    Speaking of huge mismatches.......................

    there have been 18 times since 1980 we had a huge mismatch according to regular season PR's, with one team over 4 pts better with both PR's combined as this year becomes the 19th time.

    15-3 in the previous 18 times at winning the series.

    2 of those teams happened to be road teams, 94 Knicks and 2004 Pistons, Knicks lost in 7 games and Pistons won in 5.

    That gives us 16 teams as the home team, 14-2 winning the series 87.5 %.

    10 of those 16 teams went 2-0 SU games 1 & 2.

    Only 2 of 16 teams failed to cover one of those 1st ...2 games.

    81 Celtics 
    95 Magic

    both teams was 1st time in finals with the group of players and key players like Bird and Shaq and Penny.
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    Speaking of huge mismatches.......................

    there have been 18 times since 1980 we had a huge mismatch according to regular season PR's, with one team over 4 pts better with both PR's combined as this year becomes the 19th time.

    15-3 in the previous 18 times at winning the series.

    2 of those teams happened to be road teams, 94 Knicks and 2004 Pistons, Knicks lost in 7 games and Pistons won in 5.

    That gives us 16 teams as the home team, 14-2 winning the series 87.5 %.

    10 of those 16 teams went 2-0 SU games 1 & 2.

    Only 2 of 16 teams failed to cover one of those 1st ...2 games.

    81 Celtics 
    95 Magic

    both teams was 1st time in finals with the group of players and key players like Bird and Shaq and Penny.
     
     
    theclaw
    theclaw
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: May, 2008
    Posts: 12133
    Posted: Jun. 3, 2018 - 8:13 AM ET #325

    MY LINES.......................................

    giving 2 pts to team trailing by 1 game in series.

    Warriors -13.31 over Cavs...... based on end of regular season
    Warriors -15.22 over Cavs ....before injuries to key players

    with a 2.5 diff to closing line 8-2 ATS since 1992

    may not have updated this past year or 2 but we would have won both those years so record is almost certainly better.

    we know Cavs are better then their rating but we stay the course with the info, the info is what it is, and works over time just the way it is.

    Cavs in a very bad spot off 3 ATS wins.

    Thompson is playing, he has a high ankle sprain  doubtful he be 100% and Iggy likely out.

    We'll wait-out the line , see how it goes, right now public on a 3-1 run and about 50% at the moment.

    Would look for Warriors to win and cover regardless of injuries , but may pass on taking any action, we'll wait and see.

    No point is making a play every game just to make a play, we will find better plays  down the road .
    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    MY LINES.......................................

    giving 2 pts to team trailing by 1 game in series.

    Warriors -13.31 over Cavs...... based on end of regular season
    Warriors -15.22 over Cavs ....before injuries to key players

    with a 2.5 diff to closing line 8-2 ATS since 1992

    may not have updated this past year or 2 but we would have won both those years so record is almost certainly better.

    we know Cavs are better then their rating but we stay the course with the info, the info is what it is, and works over time just the way it is.

    Cavs in a very bad spot off 3 ATS wins.

    Thompson is playing, he has a high ankle sprain  doubtful he be 100% and Iggy likely out.

    We'll wait-out the line , see how it goes, right now public on a 3-1 run and about 50% at the moment.

    Would look for Warriors to win and cover regardless of injuries , but may pass on taking any action, we'll wait and see.

    No point is making a play every game just to make a play, we will find better plays  down the road .
    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum
    «First Previous 123 ... 121314 Next Last»

    Hot Forums IconHot Forum Topics

    • 🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵 448,536 Covers arrow
    • 🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets 302,151 Covers arrow
    • Thursday 09/17/2026 680 Covers arrow
    • 🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets 257,610 Covers arrow
    • I'm embarrassed for Trump supporters 58,276 Covers arrow
    • NFL LOCKED IN! 97,420 Covers arrow
    • PART DEUX 275 Covers arrow
    • Trump lies so much. 21,485 Covers arrow
    • DET@BUFF Under 55 Small Write up 1,506 Covers arrow
    • Couple Beers 3,286 Covers arrow

    Warning - External Link

    Report User

    Thank you for reporting
    This content is abusive or harmful
    This post is spam
    An error has occurred
    This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

    Delete Post

    Are you sure you would like to remove this post?

    Remove Thread

    Are you sure you would like to remove this thread?

    Scan Results

    Login/Register

    Happy to have you join the conversation. To do so, please login or create an account.
    Accounts are free and easy to create.

    Search


    Loading…

    Loading…

    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gambling
    Betting Sites
    US Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Ultimate Race
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Join our community today
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    21+
    Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
    Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
    YouTube logo
    Facebook logo
    Twitter logo
    Instagram logo
    LinkedIn logo
    Google News logo
    Covers is verified safe by:
    Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.