Public will win this one tonight imo, claw. It sets them up to back the dubs on the road where they won’t cover. Just my thoughts but bol. I’m on the other side.
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Public will win this one tonight imo, claw. It sets them up to back the dubs on the road where they won’t cover. Just my thoughts but bol. I’m on the other side.
LBJ had a good game, shot 50%, scored 29 pts but a far cry from his game 1.
He was 1 reb short of triple double, he almost got one shooting 50% or better while scoring 25 pts or more.
But Warriors just to good for this Cavs team.
MY LINES.......................game 3
Cavs down 2-0 , recieve 4 additional desperation pts.
Warriors -3.22 over Cavs
Warriors -5.22 over Cavs
line is about right in game 3. many will like the Cavs down 2-0, generally a good play on teams down 2-0 and back at home. Here we need I think a 4 pt diff to have a play on the home team, which would have a strong record since 1992.
We said game 2's were much better for my lines then game 1's and it worked out that way, game 3 we do not see any advantage on either team using my lines.
Warriors just to big a mismatch over Cavs to make game 3 line meaningful.
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LEANS --- 1-0
LBJ had a good game, shot 50%, scored 29 pts but a far cry from his game 1.
He was 1 reb short of triple double, he almost got one shooting 50% or better while scoring 25 pts or more.
But Warriors just to good for this Cavs team.
MY LINES.......................game 3
Cavs down 2-0 , recieve 4 additional desperation pts.
Warriors -3.22 over Cavs
Warriors -5.22 over Cavs
line is about right in game 3. many will like the Cavs down 2-0, generally a good play on teams down 2-0 and back at home. Here we need I think a 4 pt diff to have a play on the home team, which would have a strong record since 1992.
We said game 2's were much better for my lines then game 1's and it worked out that way, game 3 we do not see any advantage on either team using my lines.
Warriors just to big a mismatch over Cavs to make game 3 line meaningful.
Public will win this one tonight imo, claw. It sets them up to back the dubs on the road where they won’t cover. Just my thoughts but bol. I’m on the other side.
I never like backing public off runs, but 3-1 run is not all that good of a run , yea I could see the public winning but combined with all the other info that pointed to Warriors, the public was one more small piece.
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Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:
Public will win this one tonight imo, claw. It sets them up to back the dubs on the road where they won’t cover. Just my thoughts but bol. I’m on the other side.
I never like backing public off runs, but 3-1 run is not all that good of a run , yea I could see the public winning but combined with all the other info that pointed to Warriors, the public was one more small piece.
MY LINES IN THE NBA Finals game 3's with a 2-0 series lead.....................................
7-6-1 ATS in all games
4-1-1 with a 4.5 difference or better
3-5 ATS with under 4.5
Past 2 years were under 4.5 and went 0-2 ATS, with Warriors having 2-0 series lead.
Past 2 years we had the smallest diff with my lines in 2016 with only a .82 diff and we had the largest difference of any game under 4.5 in 2017 at a 4.05 diff and my lines lost both.
My lines will likely win this year. and get closer to the 50-50 mark .
My lines could be on either team based on end of season or before the injuries, would think line would be closer to before the injuries which would make Warriors the favorite on my lines at -4.5.
I would not count the Warriors out from winning this game and covering the spread,
This is not an automatic back the team down 2-0 in the series as many times is the case but not here.
Our last play with a 4.5 difference to my lines came in 2008 with Celtics up 2-0 and a 9.5 dog in game 3.
My lines had Lakers -4.06 over Celtics, a 5.44 diff on the C's and the Lakers won 87-81 with Celtics getting the cover.
Celtics were heads & shoulders better then the Lakers as Lakers received 4 additional desperation pts as well and stilll my lines favored the Celtics by quite a bit..
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MY LINES IN THE NBA Finals game 3's with a 2-0 series lead.....................................
7-6-1 ATS in all games
4-1-1 with a 4.5 difference or better
3-5 ATS with under 4.5
Past 2 years were under 4.5 and went 0-2 ATS, with Warriors having 2-0 series lead.
Past 2 years we had the smallest diff with my lines in 2016 with only a .82 diff and we had the largest difference of any game under 4.5 in 2017 at a 4.05 diff and my lines lost both.
My lines will likely win this year. and get closer to the 50-50 mark .
My lines could be on either team based on end of season or before the injuries, would think line would be closer to before the injuries which would make Warriors the favorite on my lines at -4.5.
I would not count the Warriors out from winning this game and covering the spread,
This is not an automatic back the team down 2-0 in the series as many times is the case but not here.
Our last play with a 4.5 difference to my lines came in 2008 with Celtics up 2-0 and a 9.5 dog in game 3.
My lines had Lakers -4.06 over Celtics, a 5.44 diff on the C's and the Lakers won 87-81 with Celtics getting the cover.
Celtics were heads & shoulders better then the Lakers as Lakers received 4 additional desperation pts as well and stilll my lines favored the Celtics by quite a bit..
In Series Game 3, winless home teams getting 1 to 7 points are 26-26 ATS. If they are also off a game wherein they grabbed 15+ ORB's, they are 0-10 on the Over/Under totals.
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In Series Game 3, winless home teams getting 1 to 7 points are 26-26 ATS. If they are also off a game wherein they grabbed 15+ ORB's, they are 0-10 on the Over/Under totals.
In Series Game 3, winless home teams getting 1 to 7 points are 26-26 ATS. If they are also off a game wherein they grabbed 15+ ORB's, they are 0-10 on the Over/Under totals.
50% about the best odds I'd give the Cavs, this is not an automatic play on team down 2-0 which many times is but not here.
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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
In Series Game 3, winless home teams getting 1 to 7 points are 26-26 ATS. If they are also off a game wherein they grabbed 15+ ORB's, they are 0-10 on the Over/Under totals.
50% about the best odds I'd give the Cavs, this is not an automatic play on team down 2-0 which many times is but not here.
Teams combined OVER 4 when up 2-0 are 4-4 ATS in game 3 of NBA Finals since 92, don't have the lines for 2 teams before 92.
MY LINES.................with less then a 4.5 diff to closing line is 3-5 ATS
Game 3 is a coin flip , the best probabilities we can give Cavs is 50% at the very best.
Considering Warriors up 3-1 lost to Cavs in 2016 and when you add in all the injuries the Warriors have had, the motivation for the Warriors to end this series should be very high , as the longer this plays out the more oppurtunities there will be for another injury to a key player and the possibility the Cavs could come back and win the series just like 2016.
Remember 2016 ? Green suspended, Bogurt hurt, Warriors will be ready to make sure things like that won't happen again and the best way to do that is end this thing quick.
We don't make plays on that kind of judgement info here guys, we only make plays off our probability methods and history, not off judgement .
We pass on the game but we look for the Warriors to win SU and likely cover.
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PR I .................
Warriors 8.62
Cavs (-2.69)
PR II................
Warriors 53.29
Cavs 47.59
COMBINED .....Warriors by 17.31
Teams combined OVER 4 when up 2-0 are 4-4 ATS in game 3 of NBA Finals since 92, don't have the lines for 2 teams before 92.
MY LINES.................with less then a 4.5 diff to closing line is 3-5 ATS
Game 3 is a coin flip , the best probabilities we can give Cavs is 50% at the very best.
Considering Warriors up 3-1 lost to Cavs in 2016 and when you add in all the injuries the Warriors have had, the motivation for the Warriors to end this series should be very high , as the longer this plays out the more oppurtunities there will be for another injury to a key player and the possibility the Cavs could come back and win the series just like 2016.
Remember 2016 ? Green suspended, Bogurt hurt, Warriors will be ready to make sure things like that won't happen again and the best way to do that is end this thing quick.
We don't make plays on that kind of judgement info here guys, we only make plays off our probability methods and history, not off judgement .
We pass on the game but we look for the Warriors to win SU and likely cover.
Interesting that of all the finals series under a combined 4, in other words series which were more even, only 4 of those series the better team was up 2-0, most of them were 1-1, so more evenly matched teams went 1-1 far more often then not, while more dominate teams go up 2-0 far more often , exactly what you'd expect with the probabilities.
Those 4 more evenly match series with a team up 2-0 is 1-3 ATS in game 3 as the better team being more evenly matched does not cover up 2-0.
A small sample size but it points in the right direction of probabilities.
Exactly what your'd expect to find based on probabilities.
And why we back probabilities.
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Interesting that of all the finals series under a combined 4, in other words series which were more even, only 4 of those series the better team was up 2-0, most of them were 1-1, so more evenly matched teams went 1-1 far more often then not, while more dominate teams go up 2-0 far more often , exactly what you'd expect with the probabilities.
Those 4 more evenly match series with a team up 2-0 is 1-3 ATS in game 3 as the better team being more evenly matched does not cover up 2-0.
A small sample size but it points in the right direction of probabilities.
Exactly what your'd expect to find based on probabilities.
Line down to 3.5 even some 3's, books stating they need Warriors tonight and the Warriors to win the series,
Books usual get what they need, not because of the script but because the ave joe uses the wrong info or uses info poorly.
Won't be surprised if Warriors win and cover 1st half and the game.
Teams down 2-0 and back at ho,me have done very well in 1st halves but not the best situation for backing Cavs tonight .
Warriors off 1 ATS win, powerhouse teams actually do well off 1 ATS win if my lines takes them.
Most powerhouse teams cover 2 in a row at some point in the series, Warriors did it early in series in 1st round inm games 1 and 2, they failed in round 2 when they just missed covering in game 5 by 1.5 points.
But then bounced back and cover 2 straight at the end of series in games 6 and 7..
They most likely will cover 2 straight at some point, I would not play against them here.
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Line down to 3.5 even some 3's, books stating they need Warriors tonight and the Warriors to win the series,
Books usual get what they need, not because of the script but because the ave joe uses the wrong info or uses info poorly.
Won't be surprised if Warriors win and cover 1st half and the game.
Teams down 2-0 and back at ho,me have done very well in 1st halves but not the best situation for backing Cavs tonight .
Warriors off 1 ATS win, powerhouse teams actually do well off 1 ATS win if my lines takes them.
Most powerhouse teams cover 2 in a row at some point in the series, Warriors did it early in series in 1st round inm games 1 and 2, they failed in round 2 when they just missed covering in game 5 by 1.5 points.
But then bounced back and cover 2 straight at the end of series in games 6 and 7..
They most likely will cover 2 straight at some point, I would not play against them here.
Another classic example of triple doubles, how many have we've seen this postseason ?
KD 15 of 23, 65.2%, 6 of 9 on 3'3 for an astounding 66.7% with 13 rebs and only 7 assists. Scores 43 pts
KD was 3 assist short of a triple double.
LBJ 13 of 28 , 46.4%, 1 of 6 on 3's for a not astounding 16.7%, 10 rebs and 11 assist . Scores 33 pts.
LBJ gets another triple double but KD was 3 assists short.
Who contributed more to help his team in the game ? They guy with a triple double or the guy who did not get a triple double ?
So because LBJ got a triple double and KD did not that makes LBJ the better player last night ?
Sillest damn thing I've ever heard.
KD had 10 more pts, shot 18.8 % better had 3 more rebs but those 4 extra assists LBJ got over KD made him the better player ?
All because he got to double in 3 areas but KD only got to double in 2 areas.
Yet another triple double for LBJ when he shoots below 50% but he did score well this time, unlike many of his triple doubles.
Although a triple double may tells us who is more versatile it certainly does not tell us who the better player is and who contributed more to his team.
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Another classic example of triple doubles, how many have we've seen this postseason ?
KD 15 of 23, 65.2%, 6 of 9 on 3'3 for an astounding 66.7% with 13 rebs and only 7 assists. Scores 43 pts
KD was 3 assist short of a triple double.
LBJ 13 of 28 , 46.4%, 1 of 6 on 3's for a not astounding 16.7%, 10 rebs and 11 assist . Scores 33 pts.
LBJ gets another triple double but KD was 3 assists short.
Who contributed more to help his team in the game ? They guy with a triple double or the guy who did not get a triple double ?
So because LBJ got a triple double and KD did not that makes LBJ the better player last night ?
Sillest damn thing I've ever heard.
KD had 10 more pts, shot 18.8 % better had 3 more rebs but those 4 extra assists LBJ got over KD made him the better player ?
All because he got to double in 3 areas but KD only got to double in 2 areas.
Yet another triple double for LBJ when he shoots below 50% but he did score well this time, unlike many of his triple doubles.
Although a triple double may tells us who is more versatile it certainly does not tell us who the better player is and who contributed more to his team.
Was not the best of spots to back the team down 2-0 and back at home but the team down did win the 1st half and continue on an incredible run in 1st halves for such teams.
Warriors now in a close-out game, powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very good plays in close-out games, but Warriors are only 1-3 ATS in those games this postseason, I'd expect Warriors to bounce back and get the win and cover game 4, very unlikely such a powerhouse team goes to 1-4 ATS, would be a huge anomaly.
MY LINES.......................................
Warriors -7.31 over Cavs ......end of season
Warriors -9.22 over Cavs ......before injuries to key players
1992 -2017 in all close-out games.....................20-8 ATS
with a 1 pt diff .......................13-6 ATS
with a 2 pt diff .......................10-4 ATS
All Warriors in game 4......................................
Warriors -5.5 over Cavs --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
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Was not the best of spots to back the team down 2-0 and back at home but the team down did win the 1st half and continue on an incredible run in 1st halves for such teams.
Warriors now in a close-out game, powerhouse teams like the Warriors are very good plays in close-out games, but Warriors are only 1-3 ATS in those games this postseason, I'd expect Warriors to bounce back and get the win and cover game 4, very unlikely such a powerhouse team goes to 1-4 ATS, would be a huge anomaly.
MY LINES.......................................
Warriors -7.31 over Cavs ......end of season
Warriors -9.22 over Cavs ......before injuries to key players
1992 -2017 in all close-out games.....................20-8 ATS
with a 1 pt diff .......................13-6 ATS
with a 2 pt diff .......................10-4 ATS
All Warriors in game 4......................................
Warriors -5.5 over Cavs --- 3.3 units to win 3 units
You are welcome Mr. Bator. I trust you won more than the $5 I did.
Lots of people complain about bad beats; let us acknowledge that this was a lucky win. Curry was off a record-setting 3-point game when some regression could be expected (you certainly couldn't expect him to hit 10 threes in his next game). He was 1 for 10 - if he had just gone 3 for 10 (a sub-par performance for him, but FAR more likely than 1 for 10), we would have lost our bets.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Thanks, DogbiteWlliams. That was valuable info.
You are welcome Mr. Bator. I trust you won more than the $5 I did.
Lots of people complain about bad beats; let us acknowledge that this was a lucky win. Curry was off a record-setting 3-point game when some regression could be expected (you certainly couldn't expect him to hit 10 threes in his next game). He was 1 for 10 - if he had just gone 3 for 10 (a sub-par performance for him, but FAR more likely than 1 for 10), we would have lost our bets.
My Lines work out well enough in finals even with Cavs playing better throughout the playoffs then there regular season rating suggested .
That is why we stay the course with the info , things seem to work out at the end of the day, we may have lost a few fading the Cavs but at the end of the day things workout just fine as we stayed the course.
we had another very good run, our PR did it again as well with our favorite winning the title, that's 14 of our last 20 favorites have won the title, 15 of 21 counting the Eagles which we did not count since we passed with Wentz injury.
Next up is Arena football playoffs and WNBA playoffs as well as week 1 in the NFL where we have never finished with a losing record using our regression plays, going opposite of last year.
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1-0 ATS, won 3 units
Warriors just to tough for Cavs to handle.
My Lines work out well enough in finals even with Cavs playing better throughout the playoffs then there regular season rating suggested .
That is why we stay the course with the info , things seem to work out at the end of the day, we may have lost a few fading the Cavs but at the end of the day things workout just fine as we stayed the course.
we had another very good run, our PR did it again as well with our favorite winning the title, that's 14 of our last 20 favorites have won the title, 15 of 21 counting the Eagles which we did not count since we passed with Wentz injury.
Next up is Arena football playoffs and WNBA playoffs as well as week 1 in the NFL where we have never finished with a losing record using our regression plays, going opposite of last year.
I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
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I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
Not that I know of.
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Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:
I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
No that was not me, they were talking about the touts.
Speaking if touts, you can go to sports monitor of oklahoma city and see the records of touts honest enough to have their picks monitored.
My +9.9 net wins ranks 2cd best of all the touts in the playoffs.
What seperates myself from all those touts is the number of picks I make, the leaders in win/lose % make few picks, only made 20 picks in entire playoffs, I made 55.
The 2cd place made 29 picks, much easier to finish with a higher win/lose % with fewer picks. 3rd was 31 and 4th was 20 again.
5th made 41 and 6th place made 26.
You'll see this consistently every year. Sometimes I make 70 and 80 picks, this year I tried to isolate better, more selective spots with the info.
Many years I made the most picks or close to the most of any tout.
Going back about 4 years ago I had the most net wins +17.6 of any tout I have ever seen on the site , I was more then double the 3rd place tout and only 1 win from doubling the 2cd place tout who was 9.4.
To this day I have never seen a tout with that monitor get to +17.6 net wins at any time during the NBA Playoffs.
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Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:
I was watching a special on the tube channel called a day in the life of a handicapper. Anyways, the shows cast kept referencing a person by the name " The Claw". Are they speaking about you?
No that was not me, they were talking about the touts.
Speaking if touts, you can go to sports monitor of oklahoma city and see the records of touts honest enough to have their picks monitored.
My +9.9 net wins ranks 2cd best of all the touts in the playoffs.
What seperates myself from all those touts is the number of picks I make, the leaders in win/lose % make few picks, only made 20 picks in entire playoffs, I made 55.
The 2cd place made 29 picks, much easier to finish with a higher win/lose % with fewer picks. 3rd was 31 and 4th was 20 again.
5th made 41 and 6th place made 26.
You'll see this consistently every year. Sometimes I make 70 and 80 picks, this year I tried to isolate better, more selective spots with the info.
Many years I made the most picks or close to the most of any tout.
Going back about 4 years ago I had the most net wins +17.6 of any tout I have ever seen on the site , I was more then double the 3rd place tout and only 1 win from doubling the 2cd place tout who was 9.4.
To this day I have never seen a tout with that monitor get to +17.6 net wins at any time during the NBA Playoffs.
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