2018 NBA PLAYOFFS.......................................

stop stalking him.

don't you have anything better to do?

Does not matter if you win by 1 or 40, Rockets only need to get a split in games 3 &4, to gain back home court.

Rockets may make it much closer game 4 with a chance to cover but still look more to Warriors winning game 4 SU just like we did game 3.

Celtics  -2.21 over Cavs

we know Cavs are better then regular season ratings but Celtics might be as well. 

Using playoff only ratings..........................

Cavs -4.57 over Celtics

still points to Celtics covering the spread.

another thing we can do is give 2 additional pts for every game a team trails in the series, which Cavs would receive 2 pts. this works well in finals when 2 powerhouse teams play

Cavs -6.57

my lines has done very well in Celtics games all playoffs, points to Celtics covering tonight, but not sure if we will take any action, but would look more to Cavs winning SU and Celtics covering tonight in game 4.

public won past 2 nights big blowouts on Cavs and Warriors , and are now on a very strong 10-4 run , with them coming in big on Cavs tonight, my lines and the public both point to Celtics covering tonight.

Public on the Warriors tommorrow as well, most likely the public will lose one of those 2 games on Cavs and Warriors game 4, if not both.

But we need to wait before game time to be sure they stay on Cavs tonight.

The other thing is, thus far every game in conf finals has been a double digit win, very good possibility that reverses itself soon and we see closer games which again points to the dogs, 

last year series ended 4-1 and 4-0 with 7 of the 9 games by double digits, 6-3 ATS,  but off blowout wins only 1 -1 ATS , 5-2 ATS when not off a blowout win.

Will pass on the game, public will go down very soon,  today or tommorrow most likely. 

And The magical shooting Celtics with all those lucky rim bouncing shots were terrible shooting the ball again, just over 40%.

LBJ was incredible again, 17 of 28... 60.7 %, only 1 of 4 on 3's but 9 of 13 on FT and again a great ratio of shots from the field to FT attempts 13 to 28 or 2.15 ratio , well under 3.

LBJ did not come close to a triple double with 5 rebs and only 3 assists.

But because he was aggressive and attacking the basket he shot well and got to the line which contributes alot to helping his team win.

Look at all the times we mention this, when he scores more with great shooting Cavs mostly win even if he does not get a triple double.

How many times have we seen him get a triple double but shoot poorly and Cavs lost the game almost everytime.

But triple doubles are meaningful ??? Triple doubles do not contribute the same to helping a team win  as shooting the ball well does.

LBJ scored 40 in playoffs 6 times now, this is the first time he has had 6... 40 pt games in a playoff run, MJ did it 3 times including doing it 7 times once which is the 2cd most in history.

It took LBJ this long to do it once but he has all those triple doubles.

It took LBJ many, many finals games before he ever shot 55% in back to back finals games, I think his 1st time was VS Spurs in 2014 when they lost and most of his damage came with big deficits.

MJ did it his very 1st and 2cd finals games when off a loss in game 1 to LA ,  MJ shot 84%.

Most  other great players did it without needing many finals games.

Shoot well and you win, regardless of triple doubles.

Warriors -5.67 over Rockets ,......end of season

Warriors -7.58 over Rockets..........before injuries

now, another thing we can do is give 2 pts to team for each game they trail in series.

this actually works better then not giving the 2 pts in the finals with 2 powerhouse teams like these 2 teams.

never tried it another round but highly suspect it works well for true strong teams as these teams bring big time energy and effort, focus and skill and are far more consistent game in game out then other teams

I was planning to use this in game 2 and back the Rockets but flat-out forgot.

 

Warriors -3.67

Warriors -5.58

Warriors off 1 ATS win and a big-time blowout win, not very meaningful.

If Warriors are going to win series they most likely will hold home court and win tonight, if Rockets are going to win series they really need this game tonight and they will be ready and very focused in urgent mode,  the  Rockets will be much better tonight and hang-in with a good chance to get the cover and possible SU win but likely fall short.

LEAN Rockets +8.5 over Warriors

Our giving the 2 pts when trailing by 1 game did it again last night, now is 2-0  winning game 2 and game 4. 

Only seems to work when 2 powerhouse teams play each other, which mostly happens in the finals.

The Warriors 2 areas of weakness is they send their opps to FT line more often then they go and they lose the TO battle, but if they out-shoot opps big it won't matter, issue is when the don't.

Both teams shot poorly just below 40% and poorly on 3's, about the same so the difference came down to Rockets getting 27 FT's to 14 and Rockets winning TO's by 6, although Warriors won off rebs by 6 or 7.

Rockets also took 9 more 3's, volume matters on 3's and FT's.

The issue with volume on 3's is when teams shoot poorly, live by the 3, die by the 3, but when you shoot about the same % as opp then volume matters.

Harden once again was dreadful on 3's,.....3 of 12 but 8 of 14 on 2's.

When you factor in 2 and 3 pt shots, Harden shot 52%, not counting FT's . Not the best but not bad, especially considering how the Warriors shot.

With 2 powerhouse teams there is history of road teams winning more games then the home teams do, which is rare and only happens when you get true powerhouse teams , they can win any place at anytime when they need a win.

Warriors might just bounce back and win game 5, the team who wins the series will likely win game 5. I would look a little more to being the Warriors.

But would not count the Rockets out as they are about even in PR II, so Rockets are definately a strong team capable of playing with the Warriors.

Celtics -10.02 over Cavs

Celtics -3.43 over Cavs.............playoff only ratings

Cavs in a bad spot tonight, off 2 ATS wins and a big blowout win, and the book making a line adjustment off the game 1 opening line of Celtics +1, line now is Cavs -1.

Lean Celtics +1 over Cavs 

Celtics take control of series, teams up 2-0 go on to win a high % of times and teams up 3-2 most likely even higher % of times.

Not likely Cavs will come back and win the series.

Celtics could play a close game in game 6 with a chance to win.

Rockets -2.33 over Warriors .......end of season

Rockets -.42 over Warriors ..........before injuries to key Warrior players

The better line is before injuries to Curry, Durant and Thompson .

That line indicates no play at this time 

Rockets off 1 ATS win , not anything with that.

Warriors lost off a big blowout 41 pt win, had a regression and possible they regress again by winning tonight.

We also need to look at who should win this series, if the Warriors are going to win they pretty much need to win game 5, if the Rockets are going to win then they should win game 5.

We favor Warriors to win the series, however, the Rockets are a strong team as good as the Warriors in PR II, although we look for Warriors to win, not enough to take any action on this game or even a lean.

There will be better spots down the road, let's wait out these better  spots.

Pass on game 5

Game 4 was the fewest points scored in this series by far with 187, the previous lowest was 211.

Game 4 was also the most bet up line with public taking the over, bet up 3 points from open. The largest move of any game.

Game 3 was fewest points scored of any game, (211) up to that game,   so public expected more scoring game 4 since game 1 was 225 and game 2 was 232 , then they got the fewest points scored and now they "switch over " to the under

Rockets on the road scored 85 and 95, but at home they scored 106 and 127.

These are the 2 best offenses in the league coming off an anomaly  low scoring game and see how the public now over-reacts to this ?

line opens 220.5, by far lowest opening line of series, and they bet it down giving us great value on the over.

Rockets/Warriors   OVER 119 --- 2.2 units

219 yes, of course. Posted in a bit of a hurry.

Warriors have a great record off a loss, however, quality of opp does matter, they are not playing a 7th seeded Spurs team or  Pelicans team, Rockets are on another level from those teams.

I would not count the Rockets out winning this game or the series, yes they are that good.

Warriors much better in PR I which is heavy in shooting efficiency but the Rockets are about even with Warriors in PR II which is more balance heavy giving more weight  to rebs.

There-in lies the Warriors weakness, borderline championship reb team, very, very borderline.

A team that is far better in one PR but even are worse in the other PR  is telling us they have a weakness.

The difference in PR I and PR II tells us alot about if a team has an extreme weakness or better put an area of supreme superiority over  their opp, and Rockets are far better rebounding team to the point that,  that superiority can swing the series to the Rockets.

What the info suggest is the Warriors are not unbeatable if the right team comes along .

I would look for the Warriors to score well tonight and the Rockets should  keep up as well.

That's good coz you have a strong record here on covers of showing no class, so yes you are learning.

And that folks is the most important thing is to some day learn.

How long will it last is the bigger question ?