Percentage of games won by 1 run??????

Am seeing this at Matchbook:

 

S.D. moneyline +156

Giants RL +147

 

These are the types of lines i'd be looking for

 

This has been done before...at other sites. I dont think it was profitable.

Since you dont know, I would also say:

I dont know, but anyone who played the ML on the dogs instead of the RL in the last 5 days would have made good money.

Generic statements lead to other generic statements....

I think the key on this, is ..... not to play every game though.
You/We need to pick and choose the appropriate spots to make the plays. If there is a trend or multiple trends / stats that would point us to a system that would give say a 90%+ win rate on this, then it would be worth the time and effort as it would be very profitable.
As you can see, we have narrowed it down to about ....
<20% of the time the favorite wins the ML but not the RL. (it will be important to find out the EXACT percentage though).
We know that it would take about a 85% win rate to break even.

I have no idea if its been tried...or if it will work. I am just going by the data I have seen...and I have shared that here. I wouldn't be betting it as of right now. But its certainly something I am looking into.

I don't assume anything...maybe its been tried and failed....maybe it hasn't. But its hard to argue with what I have seen. I am more concerned of how to predict it before the result....instead of after

Currently, I'm looking for games that have.....
1) Great Than +285 (combined Dog ML + Fav RL)
2) Less Than 15% history of combination of the Fav Winning by 1  & dog losing by 1)
3) Over/Under set higher than 7.0

Today, the one game were that all came together was SD@SF.
Here are the numbers for the over +285 games ......

CLE@KC - #1 yes (+289), #2 NO (31%), #3 yes (8.0)
NO PLAY due to #2
WINNER -1.5RL

NYM@FLA - #1 yes (+287), #2 NO (32%), #3 NO (7.0)
NO PLAY due to #2 & #3
Pending

SD@SF - #1 yes (+289), #2 Yes (9.25%), #3 Yes (7.5)
PLAY!!!!!!
WINNER (Dog = SD +159)

---------------

As of RIGHT NOW, for Tomorrow (Friday) the only game that fits the +285 bill is:
HOU@SF -  #1 Yes (+285), #2 Yes (9.3%), #3 Yes (8.5)
PLAY!!!

S.D. gets the dog cover...will track this system for a bit....will see where this leads.

I am looking for +135 or better on both the dog line and the RL.

 

SORRY TO TELL YOU THIS BUT IF YOU PLAYED THE DOGS IN THE ML INSTEAD OF PLAYING (ALWAYS) THE DOGS ON THE RL YOU LOST A LOT OF MONEY BCUZ THE RESULTS ARE NOT THE SAME.

Breakdown of the Early Game Today
PIT (+195) @ CHC -1.5RL (-115)

#1) Numbers add up to = +280
#2) Probability of CHC winning by 1 = 22%
#3) O/U = 10.0

Here is how I come up with the probability of CHC winning by 1.

First I take PIT .....
How many times have they lost by 1 Run all year?
(3 times Vs 20 Losses = 15%)
How many times have they lost by 1 Run on the Road?
(1 times Vs 11 Road Losses = 9.1%)
PIT has a 12% chance of losing by 1 Run today

Then I take CHC
How many times have they Won by 1 Run all year?
(4 times Vs 15 Wins = 26.6%)
How many times have they Won by 1 Run on the Road?
(3 times Vs 8 Home Wins = 37.5%)
PIT has a 32% chance of losing by 1 Run today

Therefore there is a 22% chance of this game ending in a 1 run CHC win. That is too high to play the PIT ML & CHC -1.5RL, as we are looking for less than a 15% chance.

Max,  I think it would be wiser to go on total season data. And the data I have seen says that games end with a 1 run differential 28% of the time and the dog wins 40% roughly. So the odds of t he favorite winning by 1 is roughly 16.7%

Team to team data is just a small data pool. It could be very skewed due to the size of the sample.

Still think the best chance for this to work is to find dog lines between 135 and 160 with RL's over 145. RL's hit more than dogs so its best to try and find lines shading that side.

But good luck

I know the results are not the same...but when you do the math....

Your average multplier goes from -1.4 to +1.35

I think thats a huge jump and would account for quite a bit of profit if applied.

You bet 10 games laying -140 and win em all, you take home 10 units

You bet 10 games getting +135 and win 9, you take home 11.15 Units

That's how I've made my money so far...ML favs and +1.5 on a dog...even if the dog wins outright what does it matter if I've played the +1.5...a win is a win to me and I never get upset...example yesterday I had SD +1.5 (-155) and OAK +1.5 (-125)...won both but Oakland lost by one and SD won outright...cash in either way

Sparty Says:
"odds of the favorite winning by 1 is roughly 16.7%"

I get that - and that is good information. So basically I will be using the 16.7% number as my baseline. I am looking for opportunity that will be BETTER than the baseline by a minimum of 10% better ... So it still holds true for me to see a probability of the two teams, based on past performance, to show better (lower probability) than 15%.

Sparty Says:
"Still think the best chance for this to work is to find dog lines between 135 and 160 with RL's over 145."

I agree with you here, as that is sort of the same as my line of thinking, "adding up to +285 or more." As you not going to get that if you are too far outside of the numbers you posted.

So based on your current criteria you would be looking at these two games today ...... RIGHT?
LAD (+132 ML) @ SD (+150 RL)
HOU (+132 ML) @ SF (+150 RL)

These are the two I'm kinda looking at anyway, as possible to fit the criteria. I'll break them down in my next posting.

Breakdown of the:
LAD (+132 ML) @ SD (+150 RL)

#1) Numbers add up to = +282
#2) Probability of SD winning by 1 =29.8 %
#3) O/U = 7.5

Here is how I come up with the probability of SD winning by 1.

First I take LAD .....
How many times have they lost by 1 Run all year?
(4 times Vs 17 Losses = 23.5%)
How many times have they lost by 1 Run on the Road?
(4 times Vs 11 Road Losses = 36.4%)
LAD has a 30% chance of losing by 1 Run today

Then I take SD
How many times have they Won by 1 Run all year?
(7 times Vs 22 Wins = 31.8%)
How many times have they Won by 1 Run on the Road?
(3 times Vs 11 Home Wins = 27.3%)
SD has a 29.6% chance of WINing by 1 Run today

LAD @ SD has a 29.8% chance of SD winning by 1 Run.
This is NOT a good play for both Dog & RL Fav.

16.7 % isn't exact...but I think its a pretty decent jumping off point. It does appear that in the data I have gone through that the particular range we are dealing with hits at a lower % than that. Which would be great...but I find its best to be high on the estimate and be pleasantly surprised instead of being low and disappointed.

 

I'm not sure about other data points because I only researched the one I mentioned. Could be a better one out there...i honestly don't know.

The two games you mention are certainly in consideration. If either could move a little bit more but on the dogline and RL I would probably consider them a play. Matchbook was down this morning so I need to check what the going lines are there.

Breakdown of the:
HOU (+132 ML) @ SF (+150 RL)

#1) Numbers add up to = +282
#2) Probability of SD winning by 1 = 15.6 %
#3) O/U = 8.5

Here is how I come up with the probability of SF winning by 1.

.... HOU .....
How many times have they lost by 1 Run all year?
(4 times Vs 21 Losses = 19%)
How many times have they lost by 1 Run on the Road?
(1 times Vs 6 Road Losses = 16.7%)
HOU has a 17.8% chance of losing by 1 Run today

.... SF ....
How many times have they Won by 1 Run all year?
(3 times Vs 18 Wins = 16.7%)
How many times have they Won by 1 Run on the Road?
(1 times Vs 10 Home Wins = 10%)
SF has a 13.4% chance of WINing by 1 Run today

HOU @ SF has a 15.6% chance of SD winning by 1 Run.
This is a reasonably good play for both Dog & RL Fav.
The probability is Under the league avg of 16.7%

Bringing back as there are a few really good games for this today.
WAS @ SDP has really good numbers, but I have not run any of the percentages on it like I had above, yet.

9 years later.....just saw all of this and curious if anyone kept up with this/ if it was profitable long term? Great info though all around!

If 11% of dogs win by 1 run and 17% of favorites do, that is 28% win by betting dogs. Depending on what the line is you need another 20%+ of dogs to win by 2 or more runs. Does anyone know what that percentage actually is? 

When betting favorites on the run line, remember if they are at home, and you are up by 1 run, you only get 8 at bats, not 9.