Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by SamMG89:
I lay the formula out for him and still thinks to lay the bets.
TY for using common sense.
Percentage of games won by 1 run??????
Posted:
#52
Because the data in your formula is wrong....fundamentals are right...just not the percentages.
Just because i see a 58-8 record for this season...doesn't mean those are the exact % of probability. Back filling other seasons would be recommended.
Also getting the best possible lines is important. You were plugging in +120 on the RL and +130 on the dog and those figures are not accurate nor efficient enough to make money. Unless the lines are there to make it possible...this would be a waste of time and money.
Posted:
#53
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
Because the data in your formula is wrong....fundamentals are right...just not the percentages.
Just because i see a 58-8 record for this season...doesn't mean those are the exact % of probability. Back filling other seasons would be recommended.
Also getting the best possible lines is important. You were plugging in +120 on the RL and +130 on the dog and those figures are not accurate nor efficient enough to make money. Unless the lines are there to make it possible...this would be a waste of time and money.
I just told you that!!!
It don't matter what the percentages are all you need in the MIDDLE percentage and since you would be betting BOTH sides of the game you simply split the remaining percentage after the middle % is found.
This formula is correct for finding the EV of a bet!
It's not up to me to decide for you what the odds are and if the lines are efficient enough to make a bet.
But as for finding the EV of a reverse middle (which this bet you asked about is) this formula is the best way to find an exact number. My data (the numbers in the formula) are EXAMPLES of how the formula works!
Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
You have the RL at 44%....1 run favorite win at 12% and dog outright 44%. Those are the percentages that I disagree with.
Having a more exact % of RL victories...1 run fav victories and outright dog winners is needed.
I have the 1 run favorite win at 16.8%
Ok now I see where we're getting lost....
In this type of bet, since you'll have the favorite giving 1.5 runs and the underdog to win outright, you have BOTH sides of the bet.
Now, having both sides of a bet with a middle possibility you are not looking to find out which team winning is more likely to happen. With this bet you are hedging. A reverse middle is a form of hedging because you have BOTH sides of the bet.
And since the objective in betting sports is to win money, this formula finds the expected value of the bet.
In this type of bet, unlike other straight bets, you are rooting against a particular situation to happen (game outcome will NOT be by one run). You are not betting this type of wager in hopes that a certain outcome happens other than the middle not happening.
Posted:
#59
My data for this season show
48% RL
13% 1 run favorite win
39% dog outright
This is for dog line games between +140 to +150
Most data I have seen has games being decided by 1 run 28% of the time with dogs winning 40% of those. .28 x .60 comes out to 16.8%
16.8% is a big difference from the 13% I am seeing for this season. But because I am focusing on such a small data field...its hard to tell which % is more appropriate....which is why more research would be helpful.
Am not saying this will work...am saying there is a chance. If you want to disagree thats cool. Your probably right...this is probably nothing.
But just based on the data from last night i saw the potential if further data supports it
Posted:
#60
Quote Originally Posted by sparty444:
My data for this season show
48% RL
13% 1 run favorite win
39% dog outright
This is for dog line games between +140 to +150
Most data I have seen has games being decided by 1 run 28% of the time with dogs winning 40% of those. .28 x .60 comes out to 16.8%
16.8% is a big difference from the 13% I am seeing for this season. But because I am focusing on such a small data field...its hard to tell which % is more appropriate....which is why more research would be helpful.
Am not saying this will work...am saying there is a chance. If you want to disagree thats cool. Your probably right...this is probably nothing.
But just based on the data from last night i saw the potential if further data supports it
Yes you're right more data on the % of games that are won by 1 run. But as for the formula... just plug in the numbers to find if a particular bet of this type in Pos EV or Neg EV.
Posted:
#61
Your logic would be correct if both RL and dogs hit at the same percentage ...and if you could get the same line on both.
Yes its a reverse middle...yes we are betting against something happening.
However our payoff must be value compared to the odds... and knowing whether the RL or dog hits more is very important. Reason is because you can shade lines more towards the strength than the weakness.
My data was showing 48% on the RL and 39% on the dog. That data is important in regards to the % we must win to profit. If those numbers were to be consistant...we'd be better off trying to get bigger RL lines than dog lines. And I suspect on big named teams we would have a tougher time getting large RL's than dog lines
Posted:
#62
to make the play on both RL (Fav) and ML Dog, you really need to see the + numbers adding up to a minimum of +285. Anything less, just does not give enough of a middling win to make it worth while.
today there are 3 games that would give you that +285 mark.
SD@SF +289
NYM@FLA +289
CLE@KC +288
If these, I don't like the CLE@KC, cause the -1.5RL is only +105, while the Dog is +183.
The Other two are solid, but I'm steering clear of the NYM@FLA game, as the total is at 7.0 and should be a low scoring game.
I am going to take the SD@SF game for a spin, just for fun.
0.5U +159 SDP
0.5U +130 SF -1.5RL
Giants win by 1 = -1.0 Units
Giants win by 2+ = +0.15 Units
Padres win = +0.296 Units
So, best cause I am +0.3, worst case I am -1.0.
This really is just for fun, and I really do not care if I lose it, but this is the one game today, where I like the numbers for this type of scenario.
Here are a couple of other stats that support this as a solid play today.
SDP is 21-12 ..... only 3 of their 12 losses have been by 1 run. (2 of those have been on the road CIN & HOU) 9.1% of their games they have lost by 1 run.
SF is 18-14 ... only 3 of their wins have been by 1 run. (1 of those was at home ATL) 9.4% of their games they have won by 1 run.
So as it stands to reason there is about a 9.25% chance that SF wins by 1 run today.
today there are 3 games that would give you that +285 mark.
SD@SF +289
NYM@FLA +289
CLE@KC +288
If these, I don't like the CLE@KC, cause the -1.5RL is only +105, while the Dog is +183.
The Other two are solid, but I'm steering clear of the NYM@FLA game, as the total is at 7.0 and should be a low scoring game.
I am going to take the SD@SF game for a spin, just for fun.
0.5U +159 SDP
0.5U +130 SF -1.5RL
Giants win by 1 = -1.0 Units
Giants win by 2+ = +0.15 Units
Padres win = +0.296 Units
So, best cause I am +0.3, worst case I am -1.0.
This really is just for fun, and I really do not care if I lose it, but this is the one game today, where I like the numbers for this type of scenario.
Here are a couple of other stats that support this as a solid play today.
SDP is 21-12 ..... only 3 of their 12 losses have been by 1 run. (2 of those have been on the road CIN & HOU) 9.1% of their games they have lost by 1 run.
SF is 18-14 ... only 3 of their wins have been by 1 run. (1 of those was at home ATL) 9.4% of their games they have won by 1 run.
So as it stands to reason there is about a 9.25% chance that SF wins by 1 run today.
Posted:
#66
IF YOU PLAYED +1.5 THE LAST 5 DAYS THIS IS WHAT TOU GOT.
5/12/10=== 11 WINS AND 5 LOSSES
5/11/10=== 7 WINS AND 6 LOSSES
5/10/10=== 6 WINS AND 3 LOSSES
5/09/10=== 9 WINS AND 6 LOSSES
5/08/10=== 10 WINS AND 6 LOSSES
TOTAL
43 WINS AND 26 LOSSES
I DONT KNOW BUT I THINK THAT ANYBODY THAT PLAY THE +1.5 IN THE LAST 5 DAYS HAVE MADE GOOD MONEY
Posted:
#67
Quote Originally Posted by goallinebob:
if the #'s are correct the totals are
if the #'s are correct the totals are
NL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,76-78
AL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,61-64
total 1 run games NL,,,,154
total 1 run games AL,,,,125
total 1 run games for season,,,,,279,,,,,,,
outaa here need to go pound Carpenter,,,,,,,
I'm sorry glBob - not to contradict your statements, but you have used some really fuzzy and incorrect math there.
#1 The W-L for each the AL & NL must be equal at this point in the season, as there has not been any inter-league play yet.
#2 if the NL record is 77-77 in 1 runs games, that is not 144 games, that is actually 77 games. As you add 1 win and 1 loss in 1 game, does not mean 2 games .... it still is only one game.
What you have posted is VERY important stats, but not the overall AL/NL records nor the Total games, at least at this point.
Sure, the # of AL 1 Run games, # of NL, and Total are important to figure how many 1 run games and the percentage of time that it happens. But if you figure the 1 run game record for a particular team, then you can also figure out of those one run wins, how many time was that team the favorite. Cause just a 1 run win, only matters in this "system" if they were the favorite. THAT is really what we are trying to figure out here.
Posted:
#73
Here is a problem I see with this:
Its very easy to compare things that have occurred... now the task of being able to see these things happen before they occur.
Noticed that matchbook lines can fluctuate towards gametime.... so a criteria would need to be created on how to make selections.
But even before this we need to back fill this with previous season data. The results this season could be abnornal...show me 3 straight years of where this could work and then we might have something
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