Money Ball & KEYMetrics, Tuesday 10.2.12

YTD: 361-369-38, +228.42 Units, 6.26% ROI

Monday, 1-4-1, -15.15 Units

Obviously a poor start to the week.

All plays, unless otherwise noted, are for a FLAT 5 Units, Do NOT “add the juice”

9 Inning Play

Astros +100, (Norris / Volstad)

They better give Theo a ton of money to work with if they actually expect him to rebuild the disaster the Cubs have become. It is hard to imagine but if there were a month left in the regular season the Astros might pass the Cubs in the standings.

5 & 9 Innings

Rangers -.5, +100, F5, -1.5, +115, FG, (Harrison / Blackley)

You don’t really think the Rangers want to play in a one game play-in do you? Harrison-Blackley is all you really need to know but let me assure you that although the A’s are hitting lefties well, the Rangers are absolutely killing them and the Rangers have the far better lefty taking the ball tonight.

Rangers-A’s Over 4, +100, F5, Over 7.5, -105, FG, (Harrison / Blackley)

As I said, the A’s are hitting lefties well and the Rangers are slaughtering them. Both will come out hot to trot and eager for the battle and if a rout occurs either team is capable of going over by themselves. This is one game the park won’t support either pitcher.

5 & 9 Innings

Giants +169, F5, +177, FG, (Zito / Capuano)

This one is open to bashing. Give me all the reasons why it won’t win, then sit back and watch the game. I see the Dodgers at -187 so please explain how they have a better that 62.6% chance of winning. Remember the guy that said this spring “Oh, please Barry, be the Giants 5^th starter, so I can fade you every game”? Well, that guy is broke and no longer around, hahahaha.  

BOL

I can't believe the Dodgers are -187 with Capuano. And, even if someone likes the Dodgers, why not wait until tonight to see if the Cardinals are winning. We could see an instant 20 cent drop with the Dodgers line by 9:45 pm.

Best of Luck 

Key--S.Fran--Best play on the board today--win or lose!!

The line is a need to win line. Their clubhouse will be watching the Cinci & St Louis game --Focus can wander?

Thanks for your expertise

GL key

An excellent point that I was aware of but didn't insert in the post. And,

2211nfl,
even if the Cardinals stumble and the Dodgers still "need to win", teams that need the win don't always get it anyway. But, by playing early we are probably getting the best of the line.
BOL2ALL

surprised you aren't on the Mariners.  Even or plus money seems like smart money on this play.  Went heavy on the Texas over 4 and 7

excuse me sorry a case of typing to fast. 

I have 7.5 full game

Yeah, buddy, everyone knows I was the first guy around here pimping Iwakuma, possibly even as an ROY candidate, but the Mariners look like they have finally run out of gas after a valiant fight in MLB's toughest division, and you know how Haren is. He can't hack pressure but when it comes to meaningless games he is a chessmaster. Trout has the ROY locked up but is still in the hunt for best average and I figure if he gets something going it will excite the Halos. Probably at +120 I would pull the trigger, but at close to even money I don't like it as well.

Gentlemen, please note that if bd_c is playing a 9 inning Over it may be the first time in 5 years I have seen him make ANY 9 inning play. Mark this day on the calendar.

Long-time follower Key.. Appreciate ur work and thanks for the winners!!.. Whose bd_c, don't think I've seen his posts on here? Sounds like I should. Lol. 

that would be me

In case your fade Zito guy is still around the Giants have won Zitos L-10 starts and he is 5-0 in those,so yeh he has had a tuff year on that one,how can you not take the Giants,but I would like to see the line-up if I was to put real money on it,think this would be the game any starters that need or want some rest Bouchy would give it.

 bol tonight buddy...

ISNT BUD OFER WHATEVER ON THE ROAD?  DOESNT MATTER TO YOU?

Glad to see you on the Rangers.

Key, thanks for a great MLB capping season.....lots of respect, Sir    

Thanks Key!! 

Sorry, that's not part of the equation that matters. It is part of what makes a stiff like Volstad with a piss poor offense behind him a favorite.

All of you, thanx for stopping in so often

Bingo-Bango - backdoor_cover is both one of the first enemies and one of the first friends I made on Covers five years ago. Mutual insults and mutual apologies within five minutes of each other. He is welcome any time and someday when we are on opposite sides of a pick you will witness a great verbal battle. When that happens JEG usually has to step in and break it up, because he was there that first day, and being a bartender by trade he knows how to break up fights, but the winner gets to rub salt in the wound the next day. Tradition must be honored, you know.