Posted:
#101
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MLB - Tuesday 4/21
Posted:
#103
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
No offense intended, but I may not be the handicapper you should be looking for advice from. My strategies and philosophies are based upon a long term plan and no given day or week will be that dramatic to my plan. It is a tortoise versus the hare philosophy and if you are going to cherry pick games, it probably won't work. I can go 0-8 today and it won't ruin my season at all. In fact, I will still be up over 20 units which would keep me on pace for +120 units for the season.
By asking which three games to use, you are saying that you are admitting that you are putting a substantial percentage of your bankroll on those three games which defeats my entire philosophy. I currently have 1% of my initial ankroll per unit on each game. Therefore on a day like this, only approximately 12% of my initial bankroll is at risk and it's diversified over 8 separate investments. From what you are saying, you want to invest larger percentages with less diversification which therefore exposes you to greater risks.
I wish you luck and I am by no means trying to be rude, but your question really demonstrates the inherent problem.
Good luck with whatever you do.
No offense intended, but I may not be the handicapper you should be looking for advice from. My strategies and philosophies are based upon a long term plan and no given day or week will be that dramatic to my plan. It is a tortoise versus the hare philosophy and if you are going to cherry pick games, it probably won't work. I can go 0-8 today and it won't ruin my season at all. In fact, I will still be up over 20 units which would keep me on pace for +120 units for the season.
By asking which three games to use, you are saying that you are admitting that you are putting a substantial percentage of your bankroll on those three games which defeats my entire philosophy. I currently have 1% of my initial ankroll per unit on each game. Therefore on a day like this, only approximately 12% of my initial bankroll is at risk and it's diversified over 8 separate investments. From what you are saying, you want to invest larger percentages with less diversification which therefore exposes you to greater risks.
I wish you luck and I am by no means trying to be rude, but your question really demonstrates the inherent problem.
Good luck with whatever you do.
The way you carry yourself impresses me even more than your picks!! BOL
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Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by wjeremy97:
i know you've probably answered this question a million times, but where in gods name do you get some of these lines??
I WANT FLORIDA @ -119!
i know you've probably answered this question a million times, but where in gods name do you get some of these lines??
I WANT FLORIDA @ -119!
Below are Matchbooks lines tracked by an independent line service. -119 was available from 1:59AM this morning until 9:33AM this morning. I made my post at 8:41am this morning and the line was available for another 52 minutes until 9:33am. Your question is being asked at 4:11:09pm, more than seven hours after I bet and posted my game. Kind of surprised by the question coming from a veteran like you whom I have conversed with many times in the past. At
04/21 01:59AM: -119 / +115
04/21 01:59AM: -119 / +118
04/21 01:59AM: -119 / +115
04/21 01:59AM: -119 / +117
04/21 09:33AM: -121 / +119
Here are the lines tracked from Pinnacle. As you are probably aware, Pinny uses 8 cent spreads which means the line is typically about 3-4 cents higher than what Matchbook has available. As you can see below, Pinny had Florida -121 available from yesterday afternoon at 4:32pm until 9:42am this morning (more than an hour after I played -119 at Matchbook).
Here are the lines tracked from Pinnacle. As you are probably aware, Pinny uses 8 cent spreads which means the line is typically about 3-4 cents higher than what Matchbook has available. As you can see below, Pinny had Florida -121 available from yesterday afternoon at 4:32pm until 9:42am this morning (more than an hour after I played -119 at Matchbook).
04/20 03:38PM: -119 / +111
04/20 04:32PM: -121 / +113
04/21 09:42AM: -123 / +115
Maybe in the future I won't post the lines that I play and are available when I post them and should just guess where the lines will be 7 hours later.
Maybe in the future I won't post the lines that I play and are available when I post them and should just guess where the lines will be 7 hours later.
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Posted:
#107
Quote Originally Posted by billyc201:
GH.
What gets me is these guys not only want you to make their picks for you, they also want you to show them you're work.
This isn't 8th grade math and long division.
The thing that gets me Billy is not one person comes in and says, "Hey GH....where the hell did you get the line on the Giants at +112? I just got the Giants at +118, which is 6 cents better than you."
But the complaints flow in when I post a game at 8AM and 7 hours later the same line is not available. I have explained my philosophies that I look for line value. I would hope that 75% of my games have worse lines available 7 hours later than when I played them otherwise I should re-evaluate my strategies and perception of value.
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Posted:
#112
Quote Originally Posted by softballmaniac:
Game, they are up to no good across the street again with yours and AJ's picks being posted.
As long as they say whose picks they are, I don't mind. It's like citing a book or legal case. As long as it's footnoted and done in the right manner, I am not concerned particularly if they are not profiting from it. The only thing that bothered me is someone trying to sell my work for profit claiming it was his own work. Thanks...let me know if you see differently.
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Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by popeofpicks:
BOL GameHunter
I come for the picks, stay for the interesting and knowledgeable discussion your threads produce.
It's a tutorial every day. Thanks for shepherding your threads; that's what makes your threads grow into valuable learning tools.
BOL GameHunter
I come for the picks, stay for the interesting and knowledgeable discussion your threads produce.
It's a tutorial every day. Thanks for shepherding your threads; that's what makes your threads grow into valuable learning tools.
Glad I can help.
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Posted:
#115
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
i was very close to playing Tampa.
i was very close to playing Tampa.
Close to adding Tampa
. I gotta pick your brain here. Why the almost play on the Rays? I just can't see how flying across the country is the answer to their offensive and bullpen issues. If you just look at their team averages it says their good against left handed pitching, but when you look into it more I think that's misleading. When looking at boxscores I don't see where they've really lit up a left handed starter. They've put up more runs and won more against righties so far. A Washburn fade on your part perhaps? You assuming he has to deviate back towards the mean? I've already locked Seattle here, and certainly won't be changing my bet, but I'm still curious to hear your thoughts. I know that normally you don't have any thoughts on anything you haven't played, but since you were close to adding it I figured maybe you did
Rest of the card looks great. Also on Galarraga, Morales, McCarthy, & Baker. GL
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Keep up the nice work. 
Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by blstuart:
Close to adding Tampa. I gotta pick your brain here. Why the almost play on the Rays? I just can't see how flying across the country is the answer to their offensive and bullpen issues. If you just look at their team averages it says their good against left handed pitching, but when you look into it more I think that's misleading. When looking at boxscores I don't see where they've really lit up a left handed starter. They've put up more runs and won more against righties so far. A Washburn fade on your part perhaps? You assuming he has to deviate back towards the mean? I've already locked Seattle here, and certainly won't be changing my bet, but I'm still curious to hear your thoughts. I know that normally you don't have any thoughts on anything you haven't played, but since you were close to adding it I figured maybe you did
Rest of the card looks great. Also on Galarraga, Morales, McCarthy, & Baker. GL
Not sold on Washburn...roof will probably be open tonight. Seattle is the least disciplined teams at the plate in the majors and I consider it a bad matchup when they face one of the best control pitchers in baseball. Betancourt (3%), Lopez (4%), Chavez (6%), Balentien (6%), Johjima (7%), Suzuki (7%) Beltre (8%) had some of the worst walk numbers in the league where the league average is 10% with Betancourt and Lpoez being absolutely pathetic. The reasons you listed are the reason I am sitting it out. Tampa is the better team and I think this is the type of pitcher they will struggle with the most as Sonnanstine won't walk many or any and will be ahead on counts a majority of the time.
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Posted:
#121
1st Time I read this thread. Seems very interesting, altough I read it after playing my picks.
Just wanted to say Hello and to comment I played Seattle. Even in 2008 Tampa was not a solid team away from Tropicana Field. I don't think they will play well away this year. Andy was the weak link in rotation last yeards, behind Shields, Kazmir, Jackson. On the other hand I liked Mariners' Spring training, the team is hot and even tough in my opinion Washburn is not a good pitcher, 2009 numbars say it otherwise
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by julio_cat:
1st Time I read this thread. Seems very interesting, altough I read it after playing my picks.
Just wanted to say Hello and to comment I played Seattle. Even in 2008 Tampa was not a solid team away from Tropicana Field. I don't think they will play well away this year. Andy was the weak link in rotation last yeards, behind Shields, Kazmir, Jackson. On the other hand I liked Mariners' Spring training, the team is hot and even tough in my opinion Washburn is not a good pitcher, 2009 numbars say it otherwise
I am rooting for you and blStuart...I would be happier if Seattle won...I hate my bad habit of kicking myself in the butt when the team I was close to playing ends up winning. LOL0
Posted:
#123
game, I tend to think seattle is better off facing a pitcher that has control. When a guy has good stuff, but is wild (such as dan cabrera), these guys struggle because they aren't patient enough and will not take the walks that they should be getting. Against sonnanstine they are better off in my opinion because they are more likely to jump on his first pitch strikes. That being said, I don't like Seattle tonight and do lean with Tampa .
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Posted:
#125
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:
game, I tend to think seattle is better off facing a pitcher that has control. When a guy has good stuff, but is wild (such as dan cabrera), these guys struggle because they aren't patient enough and will not take the walks that they should be getting. Against sonnanstine they are better off in my opinion because they are more likely to jump on his first pitch strikes. That being said, I don't like Seattle tonight and do lean with Tampa .
Interesting theory....I do think Sonnastine can get ahead in counts all night and make them hit his pitches, but your point is duly noted.
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