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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Mavin's MLB Contest

    «First Previous 707172 ... 767778 Next Last»
    SportsMavin
    KCsFinest829
    MikeTizzy
    SunsDevils
    ashylarrymp
    ...
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 161193
    Posts: 1933
    «First Previous 707172 ... 767778 Next Last»
     
    SportsMavin
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 6:58 PM ET #1726

    April  1-10    152-122-6    +2,489$

    April 11-20   159-153-25  -1,475$

    April 21-30   116-120-11    -970$

    1        12-13      -159$

    2        12-12      -160$

    3        11-10      -100$

    4        11-10       -92$

    5         8-12       -597$
    ----------------------------------------------

    Total  481-452-49   -1064$
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    April  1-10    152-122-6    +2,489$

    April 11-20   159-153-25  -1,475$

    April 21-30   116-120-11    -970$

    1        12-13      -159$

    2        12-12      -160$

    3        11-10      -100$

    4        11-10       -92$

    5         8-12       -597$
    ----------------------------------------------

    Total  481-452-49   -1064$
     
    KCsFinest829
    KCsFinest829
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:01 PM ET #1727

    KCsFinest829 34-42-1 -731$

    KC Royals ML -140

    God how I hate Greg Holland. Between him and Hererra they really know how to blow a game.

    ATL Braves ML -101

    Like the value here with Atlanta. Maholm should look sharp tonight at the beginning of the road trip. Look for the Braves to start out well and taper off toward the end of it.

    First 5 Inn. Over 5 CLE Indians - OAK Athletics -105

    Wouldn't doubt it if this one goes in the 8-10 range while the startes are in early

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    KCsFinest829 34-42-1 -731$

    KC Royals ML -140

    God how I hate Greg Holland. Between him and Hererra they really know how to blow a game.

    ATL Braves ML -101

    Like the value here with Atlanta. Maholm should look sharp tonight at the beginning of the road trip. Look for the Braves to start out well and taper off toward the end of it.

    First 5 Inn. Over 5 CLE Indians - OAK Athletics -105

    Wouldn't doubt it if this one goes in the 8-10 range while the startes are in early

     
    MikeTizzy
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:16 PM ET #1728

    MikeTizzy 41-34-2  +824$

    hey fellas, lets get this going. Seriously guys, watch out for these travel days. 

    TB Rays -1.5  +160

    Rays just hitting all over, and especially struggling lefties like Buerhle.
    Hellickson loves to pitch at Tropicana, thats where his strengths are.
    Rays cover here.


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    MikeTizzy 41-34-2  +824$

    hey fellas, lets get this going. Seriously guys, watch out for these travel days. 

    TB Rays -1.5  +160

    Rays just hitting all over, and especially struggling lefties like Buerhle.
    Hellickson loves to pitch at Tropicana, thats where his strengths are.
    Rays cover here.


     
    MikeTizzy
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:18 PM ET #1729

    ok i see u guys hav a lot of group picks! let me crunch these games, and give u my full breakdown, and if i see u guys are on the strongest side possible.  
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    ok i see u guys hav a lot of group picks! let me crunch these games, and give u my full breakdown, and if i see u guys are on the strongest side possible.  
     
    SunsDevils
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:23 PM ET #1730

    SunsDevils 4-3 +$90

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -110
    ARI Diamondbacks F5 -108
    ARI Diamondback TT O3.5 -115


    Dbacks night tonight. They have been pretty good against the Dodgers and Kahill is pitching a lot better lately. They will be able to put some wuns against this struggling Dodgers team.

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    SunsDevils 4-3 +$90

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -110
    ARI Diamondbacks F5 -108
    ARI Diamondback TT O3.5 -115


    Dbacks night tonight. They have been pretty good against the Dodgers and Kahill is pitching a lot better lately. They will be able to put some wuns against this struggling Dodgers team.

     
    ashylarrymp
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:26 PM ET #1731

    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.
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    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.
     
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:32 PM ET #1732

    Musicmatt1  61-36-3  +1567$

     

    Under 7  SD Padres - MIA Marlins  -105

     

    Under 6  SF Giants - PHI Phillies  -110


    MikeTizzy 41-34-2  +824$ 


    TB Rays -1.5  +160


    AshyLarryMP 54-46-2 +$229


    BOS Redsox -.5 First 5 Innings -140

    Under 6 SF Giants - PHI Phillies -115

    SF Giants TT Under 3 -105


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    Musicmatt1  61-36-3  +1567$

     

    Under 7  SD Padres - MIA Marlins  -105

     

    Under 6  SF Giants - PHI Phillies  -110


    MikeTizzy 41-34-2  +824$ 


    TB Rays -1.5  +160


    AshyLarryMP 54-46-2 +$229


    BOS Redsox -.5 First 5 Innings -140

    Under 6 SF Giants - PHI Phillies -115

    SF Giants TT Under 3 -105


     
    SportsMavin
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:32 PM ET #1733

    SunsDevils 4-3 +$90

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -110

    ARI Diamondbacks F5 -108

    ARI Diamondback TT O3.5 -115

    natalieportman9 49-51 +16$

    KC Royals ML -145

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -107

    Over 7 MIA Marlins - SD Padres -110

    KCsFinest829 34-42-1 -731$

    KC Royals ML -140

    ATL Braves ML -101

    First 5 Inn. Over 5 CLE Indians - OAK Athletics -105

    Bigdaddy86  8-12-1 -696

    CIN Reds ML -108

    ARI Diamondbacks  ML -107

    Under 6 SF Giants- PHI Phillies -110

    greengiants 37-48 - 1125$


    Under 6 SF Giants - PHI Phillies -110

    CIN Reds ML -108

    Under 7.5 CIN Reds - ATL Braves +106

    LA-hank 0-0-0

    Over 3.5 TT- Arizona d backs -115

    Under 6 SF Giants - Phi Phillies -115
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    SunsDevils 4-3 +$90

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -110

    ARI Diamondbacks F5 -108

    ARI Diamondback TT O3.5 -115

    natalieportman9 49-51 +16$

    KC Royals ML -145

    ARI Diamondbacks ML -107

    Over 7 MIA Marlins - SD Padres -110

    KCsFinest829 34-42-1 -731$

    KC Royals ML -140

    ATL Braves ML -101

    First 5 Inn. Over 5 CLE Indians - OAK Athletics -105

    Bigdaddy86  8-12-1 -696

    CIN Reds ML -108

    ARI Diamondbacks  ML -107

    Under 6 SF Giants- PHI Phillies -110

    greengiants 37-48 - 1125$


    Under 6 SF Giants - PHI Phillies -110

    CIN Reds ML -108

    Under 7.5 CIN Reds - ATL Braves +106

    LA-hank 0-0-0

    Over 3.5 TT- Arizona d backs -115

    Under 6 SF Giants - Phi Phillies -115
     
    greengiants
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 7:37 PM ET #1734

    Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.

    had the feeling too hahaha....
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    Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.

    had the feeling too hahaha....
     
    Bigdaddy86
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 8:08 PM ET #1735

    Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.

    Not over yet Boston will put up a four spot by the end of the 5th

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    Quote Originally Posted by ashylarrymp:

    clearly buchholz pitches better when his arm is glistening.. should have known, lesson learned haha.

    Not over yet Boston will put up a four spot by the end of the 5th

     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 8:18 PM ET #1736

    Thank you MR. Longoria! Grand Slammyy! hey guys, according to what ive been studiously tracking, the hotter team with best metrics going home vs struggling traveler roadie (pitching and hitting) that cant hit certain pitching, is at a bigger disadvantage than the line value, which coincide to giving the investor more value when looked into best Scenaro for pay. Then u look at how the homer starter measures up at his home whether its a pitcher or hitter ballpark. You prolly want Pitcher dynamic friendly ( Tropicana is one). 

    hope this makes sense to u guys, not too much mumbo jumbo i try. 
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    Thank you MR. Longoria! Grand Slammyy! hey guys, according to what ive been studiously tracking, the hotter team with best metrics going home vs struggling traveler roadie (pitching and hitting) that cant hit certain pitching, is at a bigger disadvantage than the line value, which coincide to giving the investor more value when looked into best Scenaro for pay. Then u look at how the homer starter measures up at his home whether its a pitcher or hitter ballpark. You prolly want Pitcher dynamic friendly ( Tropicana is one). 

    hope this makes sense to u guys, not too much mumbo jumbo i try. 
     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 8:20 PM ET #1737

    of course, calculate bullpen dynamics and metrics as well for hidden value, in this case, talent and depth , TB has TOR beat there. 
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    of course, calculate bullpen dynamics and metrics as well for hidden value, in this case, talent and depth , TB has TOR beat there. 
     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 9:38 PM ET #1738

    great... Slumber bats wakes up! pls just close it out Rodney and co.
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    great... Slumber bats wakes up! pls just close it out Rodney and co.
     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 10:09 PM ET #1739

    adding:

    ARI D'backs ML  -102

    Stayed in state, and has the superior matchup. Cahil been on, and has handled LAD quite well, bats should fair well vs Capuano.
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    adding:

    ARI D'backs ML  -102

    Stayed in state, and has the superior matchup. Cahil been on, and has handled LAD quite well, bats should fair well vs Capuano.
     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 10:45 PM ET #1740

    im not gonna hang my head on it, had a 7-0 run lead. gotta move on from this, look at cubs rolls TEX today with no travel and improved Feldman. Travel days back2back, are quite rough to breakdown.
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    im not gonna hang my head on it, had a 7-0 run lead. gotta move on from this, look at cubs rolls TEX today with no travel and improved Feldman. Travel days back2back, are quite rough to breakdown.
     
    washhead
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 10:54 PM ET #1741

    We shall see how the game turns out, but there was some significant RLM on the Twins / Red Sox tonight.  Boston opened at -240 and dropped down to -215 or -210 despite 70-80% of wagers coming in on the Sox.  I was tempted to take the Twins around +185 but just couldn't pull the trigger on Worley vs Buchholz.   Something to note for next time....
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    We shall see how the game turns out, but there was some significant RLM on the Twins / Red Sox tonight.  Boston opened at -240 and dropped down to -215 or -210 despite 70-80% of wagers coming in on the Sox.  I was tempted to take the Twins around +185 but just couldn't pull the trigger on Worley vs Buchholz.   Something to note for next time....
     
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 11:00 PM ET #1742

    its call travel days washead, Worley is better than what hes shown, i remember his stuff from phillies rookie year, was incredible. But of course that was RLM, it happens a lot in baseball. Insane things can happen, look at SF/PHI game tonite. They both wanna out hit each other!
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    its call travel days washead, Worley is better than what hes shown, i remember his stuff from phillies rookie year, was incredible. But of course that was RLM, it happens a lot in baseball. Insane things can happen, look at SF/PHI game tonite. They both wanna out hit each other!
     
    Musicmatt1
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 11:39 PM ET #1743

    Quote Originally Posted by washhead:

    We shall see how the game turns out, but there was some significant RLM on the Twins / Red Sox tonight.  Boston opened at -240 and dropped down to -215 or -210 despite 70-80% of wagers coming in on the Sox.  I was tempted to take the Twins around +185 but just couldn't pull the trigger on Worley vs Buchholz.   Something to note for next time....

    I noticed this as well... From what I've seen anything over 20 points of a swing either way is significant. I believe it depends on how the money swings after the shift.

    In this situation there was already such a high percentage on Boston; it was difficult to see any shift in money.  

    RLM tends to be a tell on some piece of the game though.

     
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    Quote Originally Posted by washhead:

    We shall see how the game turns out, but there was some significant RLM on the Twins / Red Sox tonight.  Boston opened at -240 and dropped down to -215 or -210 despite 70-80% of wagers coming in on the Sox.  I was tempted to take the Twins around +185 but just couldn't pull the trigger on Worley vs Buchholz.   Something to note for next time....

    I noticed this as well... From what I've seen anything over 20 points of a swing either way is significant. I believe it depends on how the money swings after the shift.

    In this situation there was already such a high percentage on Boston; it was difficult to see any shift in money.  

    RLM tends to be a tell on some piece of the game though.

     
     
    MikeTizzy
    MikeTizzy
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    Posted: May. 6, 2013 - 11:52 PM ET #1744

    GS and BULLS winning is huge money makers tho!! 
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    GS and BULLS winning is huge money makers tho!! 
     
    Bigdaddy86
    Bigdaddy86
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 9:15 AM ET #1745

    Bigdaddy86  9-14-1 -814

    STL  Cardinals  ML -130

    ST Louis is on a 6 game winning streak and coming off a rest day. Lynn should be able to hold down the Cubs bats.

    MIL Brewers  +1.5  -160

    The Rangers in the last 3 days have been in Boston, Chicago and now Milwaukee and with the Brewers being at home like this one.

    DET Tigers  ML -106

    Tigers are 9-1 in there last 10 games hitting on all cylinders!

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    Bigdaddy86  9-14-1 -814

    STL  Cardinals  ML -130

    ST Louis is on a 6 game winning streak and coming off a rest day. Lynn should be able to hold down the Cubs bats.

    MIL Brewers  +1.5  -160

    The Rangers in the last 3 days have been in Boston, Chicago and now Milwaukee and with the Brewers being at home like this one.

    DET Tigers  ML -106

    Tigers are 9-1 in there last 10 games hitting on all cylinders!

     
    SunsDevils
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 1:57 PM ET #1746

    SunsDevils 7-3 +390

    Over 7.5 LA Dodgers - ARI Diamondbacks
    ARI Diamondbacks ML +102
    ARI Diamondback TT O (update the odds later)

    I will keep riding the DBacks. Two pitchers with really bad stats going against each other today. Arizona is starting to hit well now too and LAD played too many innings and used up too many pitchers with them having trouble to go long distance.
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    SunsDevils 7-3 +390

    Over 7.5 LA Dodgers - ARI Diamondbacks
    ARI Diamondbacks ML +102
    ARI Diamondback TT O (update the odds later)

    I will keep riding the DBacks. Two pitchers with really bad stats going against each other today. Arizona is starting to hit well now too and LAD played too many innings and used up too many pitchers with them having trouble to go long distance.
     
    Bigdaddy86
    Bigdaddy86
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 2:29 PM ET #1747

    Guys this is my first year trying to handicap baseball games. I am trying to learn to read line movements better, so my question is can anyone explain the Tigers National game started Washington -120 now Washington +103. I sometimes see you say the money is going on a team but the line is not moving with it.How do you find that out.

      With the line movement so far how would you handicap this game. Thanks in advance for any input

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    Guys this is my first year trying to handicap baseball games. I am trying to learn to read line movements better, so my question is can anyone explain the Tigers National game started Washington -120 now Washington +103. I sometimes see you say the money is going on a team but the line is not moving with it.How do you find that out.

      With the line movement so far how would you handicap this game. Thanks in advance for any input

     
    Musicmatt1
    Musicmatt1
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 3:01 PM ET #1748

    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy86:

    Guys this is my first year trying to handicap baseball games. I am trying to learn to read line movements better, so my question is can anyone explain the Tigers National game started Washington -120 now Washington +103. I sometimes see you say the money is going on a team but the line is not moving with it.How do you find that out.

      With the line movement so far how would you handicap this game. Thanks in advance for any input


    From what I am seeing, when the line change occurred, it seems the percentages went down on Nationals ML and went up on Tigers RL...

    This situation seems very much like the Detroit/Atlanta series.  Popular opinion on Nats is that they are struggling.  Setting the line so low on Tigers is hinting to me that they want to entice bets on Tigers.

    What do you see in the lines?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy86:

    Guys this is my first year trying to handicap baseball games. I am trying to learn to read line movements better, so my question is can anyone explain the Tigers National game started Washington -120 now Washington +103. I sometimes see you say the money is going on a team but the line is not moving with it.How do you find that out.

      With the line movement so far how would you handicap this game. Thanks in advance for any input


    From what I am seeing, when the line change occurred, it seems the percentages went down on Nationals ML and went up on Tigers RL...

    This situation seems very much like the Detroit/Atlanta series.  Popular opinion on Nats is that they are struggling.  Setting the line so low on Tigers is hinting to me that they want to entice bets on Tigers.

    What do you see in the lines?
     
    LA_hank
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 5:16 PM ET #1749

    Over 7.5 pitt pirates - Sea Mariners -110

    Over 7.5 LA dodgers - Arz d backs -110

    Two great hitting teams in pirates and mariners. While james mcdonald is struggling to find the strike zone and harrang has been awful minus one start. Look for teams to unload on each other

    Dodgers bullpen has been used way too much as of late. Looke for d backs to get to beckett early and get to that bullpen. if the dodgers put up runs thats just a plus.  I see d backs putting up 6 runs. 
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    Over 7.5 pitt pirates - Sea Mariners -110

    Over 7.5 LA dodgers - Arz d backs -110

    Two great hitting teams in pirates and mariners. While james mcdonald is struggling to find the strike zone and harrang has been awful minus one start. Look for teams to unload on each other

    Dodgers bullpen has been used way too much as of late. Looke for d backs to get to beckett early and get to that bullpen. if the dodgers put up runs thats just a plus.  I see d backs putting up 6 runs. 
     
     
    ashylarrymp
    ashylarrymp
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    Posted: May. 7, 2013 - 6:27 PM ET #1750

    AshyLarryMP 55-48-2 +$74

    LA Angels -.5 first 5 innings -125

    Under 7.5 LA Dodgers - ARZ Diamondbacks -120

    MIL Brewers ML +105

    i'll trust that the angels will be able to put some runs up on jordan lyles.. about 3 runs should be good enough for CJ to hold down the fort, if angels aren't relieved to play the astros their worse than i thought..
    feel this game will go under cause it has 2 pitchers that seem to make the game over.. yet 7.5 is favored to go under.. being today is tuesday i will fade the public and take the under, both these pitchers have great career era vs the opponent, and dodgers lineup banged up, big ballpark, see more of a 3-2 game.
    brewers because they just got swept and i wont jump off the home wagon.. as simondog said, they usually win 2 out of 3 at home.. and texas in a bad spot here after traveling yesterday from CHI. think brewers bats get going here.
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    AshyLarryMP 55-48-2 +$74

    LA Angels -.5 first 5 innings -125

    Under 7.5 LA Dodgers - ARZ Diamondbacks -120

    MIL Brewers ML +105

    i'll trust that the angels will be able to put some runs up on jordan lyles.. about 3 runs should be good enough for CJ to hold down the fort, if angels aren't relieved to play the astros their worse than i thought..
    feel this game will go under cause it has 2 pitchers that seem to make the game over.. yet 7.5 is favored to go under.. being today is tuesday i will fade the public and take the under, both these pitchers have great career era vs the opponent, and dodgers lineup banged up, big ballpark, see more of a 3-2 game.
    brewers because they just got swept and i wont jump off the home wagon.. as simondog said, they usually win 2 out of 3 at home.. and texas in a bad spot here after traveling yesterday from CHI. think brewers bats get going here.
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