Mavin's MLB Contest

yeah it was tough to narrow down lol!

Correct, I meant LA a public favorite.  I was confusing the number of another game I was looking at.  I am seeing 59% of Public on Angels today?

Do we have a consensus on where we find the best percentages?

Ok sounds good, I'm ovbiously new to this stuff but I really do enjoy it. When you say 0-0 thats figuratively speaking right? So when I post my picks for the day I post my full on record that I have in your contest. Also how are you adding up the money made? I went 2-0 and just put +2 units since I'm doing 1 unit a bet these days, but you had me at like $210.. Just want to have everything roll smoothely. Thanks Mavin and the rest of the team!

I really felt that since they played all night last night there would be erros. Also my system which is hard to explain with out giving it away was on the right side in that game. I acutally should have gone under but sort of used inner emotion and gut to go over. Good call on the under Mikey!

Mikey, is this for todays game? I really like the over and I was actually about to post saying I was taking the over. My system has the A's about even in O/U in this perticular situation but def leaning towards over. The Angels on the other hand are 1-9 on unders meaning its basically theres huge percentage according to my system that it goes over. I got the A's on the game also. 

On another note I apreciate you guys all wanting to improve my system and I wish I could just tell you guys it so we could all make it un beatable but the problem is my partner who created it brought me in. I do stat work for him in return for the system and its picks and he wants to sell the picks so if I told you guys the system with out his approval it would totally diminish what me and my buddy have going business wise and personal wise. Anyways good luck everyone! Let get that money!

Over 8 OAK Athletics - LA Angels -130 ( Bought half a point)

I believe its 3 games now that the Angels and Oak have played that have gone over, and the public has been right every time. They are a huge over favorite today and I love it, the public has been hot as hell the past couple days especially with yesterday just killing the books. Also my system has the Angels having a 1 in 9 chance of going under. Anyways I'll have my other 2 picks up later. 

We've never actually discussed this in any of the forums I believe, but I would feel safe in saying there would be more money made in betting the plays than selling them.

I see this all the time in my field of business.  Companies that do not have a Human Resource Manager or Office; struggle to find the time to do the hiring process without interfering with their actual business goal.

In terms of what you are suggesting.  You have to put thought in to picks.  It takes time and energy.  You and your buddy will use time selling and sending picks, it should hurt your analysis on your picks at some point.

I am not suggesting posting all your thoughts to your system here either, because you'd have to imagine Vegas scouts places like this to better their line setting.  What I do believe is that there are people here that could help you to improve the system.

Over 8.5 TOR BlueJays - BOS RedSox -115

Under 7.5 CLE Indians -  PHI Phillies -105

Under 4 First 5 innings CLE Indians - PHI Phillies -115

feel this bluejays total is set very high.. and i know buherle shouldnt be able to hold down this redsox team to 3er or less.. i see him giving up 4.. and buchholz is hot but don't see him throwing a sho here.. feel jays bats are hot and will put up runs today.. another 6-4 kind of game today, jays have a shot at winning this one, just liked over more.

really feel trevor bauer should throw well today, phillies haven't seen him before, therefore he should throw well first few frames around the order, think this time when he's called up he'll be more prepared for what hes about to face and more confident... and i trust cliff lee vs his old team, kind of like shields vs rays yesterday, the team will be motivated to play D behind him.. making the under 4 first 5 a good play.. i'll trust the bullpens to hold it down for me last few innings.. i can see indians winning this game 3-2, 4-2 kind of game.

side note: like the diamondbacks to win tonight.. atleast like them the first 5 innings.. don't see lincecum sweeping them in their house, it'd be nice, but dbacks should touch him up a bit (goldschmidt vs lincecum:8-14 lifetime 5hr's)

TEX Rangers -1.5 +170

Rangers great home hitting team vs the terrible road hitting white sox.  Edge to rangers rested bullpen.  Rangers effective this year vs lefties.  I will take great value in the run line.

LA Dodgers TT Over 4 +100

Fading Nicasio in LA.  Edge to the Dodger lineup with Hanley back in it.  Dodgers lineup can only improve on how bad they have been at home.

BAL Orioles -1.5 +120

Taking another run line here.  Fading Harang.  Seattle will struggle vs the lefty Chen.  I don't see Baltimore not jumping all over Harang.

8-14

Under 8.5 DET Tigers - MIN Twins -107

Under 7 STL Cardinals - CIN Reds +120

OAK Athletics -1 +128

BAL Orioles ML -142

Adding this game because the Orioles have the better pitcher and line up.  I don't normally like to side with a heavy public favorite but I don't think I'm siding it the same way.  The first 2 games went Over, with totals set at 7.5, 7, and now it's 7.5 again. This seems odd to me given the fire power the Orioles have and the ERA of Harang. First difference in opinion. I believe this game is Under or close to it given the way the line is set. I can't make that play given the fire power. So if the game does go Under, it has the potential of being a closer game. That makes it harder to cover the -1.5. I don't feel comfortable making that play either. So here we are at the ML. Orioles definitely have the metrics to win this game, so I do feel very comfortable taking that. Second difference in opinion, I believe most of public is betting that spread.

In conclusion, I am siding with the winner of a public favorite, but I believe Vegas has their opportunity to cash. I believe after this game, we may want to have this RL discussion more in depth.

Best of Luck!

there u go!!