L2T Early Season Streak Betting (Mar - May 15)

@Last2thirst

If you like the matchup with TB, they are +115 on a 5 game+ win streak and teams in this situation are 8 - 4 to continue it after 5 games 

-both pitchers fare well vs their opponent batters 

-Bibee tends to walk more and give up HR 

TB ML x HALF U

TB/Clev UNDER 7.5 x HALF U

Value Play: Pitt runline -1.5 run win +135 x HALF U

- Pirates with an excellent young pitcher who has only allowed 2 hits in 15 ABs vs Cards before 

-Pirates with one of the 5 best bullpens right now for era....Cards are one of the 6 worst!

-looking at my data, ONLY ONCE this season have the Pirates faced a 2 game losing streak and potentially facing a 3rd in a row but in that instance, they WON

- I like the setup of this one and lean the UNDER as well but not gonna play it because I feel the Pirates might break out

STREAK DATA UPDATE:

                                       > 30+ Days (overall)/ 8 DAY 

hit Win strk of 3 now   56 - 49 = 53.3% (down) (7 - 13 = 35%) << stay with trend

FADE? - Wash, Cincy, SF

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hit Win strk of 4 now   26 - 21 = 55.3% (down) (2 - 3 = 40%) < watch

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hit Win strk 5 - 10 now  27 - 26 = 50.9% (up!) (8 - 4 = 67%) << stay with trend

Play to WIN > Tampa

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hit Lose strk of 3 now   53 - 39 = 57.6% (down) (10 - 10 = 50%) < watch

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hit Lose strk of 4 now   28 - 25 = 52.8% (up! ) (5 - 3 = 62.5% ) < stay with trend?

FADE? - Clev, Mets, Miami, Cubs

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hit Lose strk 5 - 10 now  34 - 25 = 57.6% (down) (4 - 6 = 40%) < watch

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hit Over strk of 3 now   62 - 42 = 59.6% (up!) (14 - 6 = 70%) < fuego trend***

In Play tonight > San Diego

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hit Over strk of 4 now   25 - 26 = 49.1% (down ) (6 - 9 = 40%) < stay with trend?

FADE?  - SF, Houston, Cincy

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hit Over strk 5-10 now  32 - 17 = 65.3% (up! ) (8 - 3 =72%) < fuego trend***

In play tonight > Baltimore, Detroit, K.C., LAA,  Miami

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hit Under strk of 3 now   40 - 64 = 38.5% (up!) (10 - 7 = 58.8%) < watch

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hit Under strk of 4 now   17 - 29 = 37.0% (up!) (3 - 4 = 43%) < watch

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hit Under strk 5 - 10 now  8 - 17 = 32% (down) (1 - 4 = 20%) < stay with trend

In Play tonight > no teams 

@Last2thirst

Nice call on Rays!!

Some 'strange' things happened these past couple of days....glad I stayed away....pendulum swung the other way

American League = almost ever 2, 3 or 4 game OVER STREAK went UNDER 

National League = most Over streaks continued or UNDERS reversed to Overs....you almost never see this when comparing leagues

Last couple of days: (both leagues combined)

Win Streaks continued =  6 - 10 

Losing Streaks continued = 6 - 6

Over Streaks continued = 5 - 8

Under Streaks continued = 10 - 5 

Teams continuing UNDER STREAKS (#going for in brackets) 

Toronto (4), NYY (4), Tampa (6), Detroit (3)*** got it!, KC (3)**push/streak continues, Cleveland (5), CWS (3), Oakland (5)**push/streak continues, Texas (6), Atlanta (3)*** got it!, Miami (3), Dodgers (3)

NL games today UNDER = 1 - 4  ....hmmm

Only game tonight; BLUE JAYS UNDER 8 @1.86 x 1U

-Ober has a .181 BA vs Toronto lineup with only 4 walks in 92 ABs (Jays work walks, they create runs I find).....Ober only threw 83 pitches in his last outing so I expect him to go 6-7 innings with Twins wonky bullpen lately

- Gausman with a .241 lifetime era vs the Twins lineup.... more RBIs than Ober but that is prety good 

-Jays bullpen has been rock solid lately and man, do they now have THE CLOSER after switching out Hoffman to a setup guy 

-Jays getting healthy and I expect their defense to improve a lot now ...uncharacterisically in the bottom 5 of baseball

***Twins bullpen is leaking oil and the only fly in the ointment ...now 5 worst in baseball....Jays up to middle of the pack  

Update on Trends the past 3-4 days:

- only Overs streaks are back in charge > hitting an OVER STREAK of 3 = 8 - 4 and 4 gamer = 7 - 3

- sustaining 2 game WIN STREAKS to a 3 gamer got tougher > 6 - 10

- sustaining a LOSING STREAK to a 5 gamer or more went > 4 - 2

10 Day STREAK TRENDS:

> hitting a win streak of 3 >  13 - 23 only   Today: Milwaukee, Texas, Cleveland 

> hitting a win streak of 5 or more > 11 - 6  Today: Chisox, St.L, Phillies, 

> all types of Losing streaks = .500 avg mostly

>hitting Over streak of 3 > 22 - 10    Today: Phillies, Arizona

> Under streaks are cooling off but, with right weather conditions/pitchers maybe:

Today:

-LAA going for 4 gamer/long losing streak also

Double UP Weekend Plays: - will bet in time progression (look for an earlier game to play 1 Unit and then complete it >  move onto the next game at another time/next day)

Leg #1 - Blue Jays runline -1.5 runs win +135 x 1U

-Cease has great numbers vs Twins and facing a young pitcher /terrible bullpen

-both pitchers walk a lot of batters

Side bet: OVER 8 runs x HALF U @ +100

Leg #2 - Nationals ML +115  (2U regardless of whether I lose Blue Jay runline or would just lay it anyway )

-Harrison with poor results vs this Nationals lineup

-Nationals like to hit lefties

-Griffin with outstanding results vs Brewers and I like the fact that Milwaukee is on a 2 game win streak which have be stalling a lot lately

Will likely have something to play in the late games........

Leg #1 - Blue Jays runline -1.5 runs win +135 x 1U   << this team got hot at exactly the same time last year (this week) WATCHOUT!!

-Cease has great numbers vs Twins and facing a young pitcher /terrible bullpen

-both pitchers walk a lot of batters

Side bet: OVER 8 runs x HALF U @ +100

Leg #2 - Nationals ML +115  (2U regardless of whether I lose Blue Jay runline or would just lay it anyway )

^^ not a double UP play but a value play

Just got invited to a Derby gathering and I think we are going to bet Horses at Mohawk after so I won't be doing any more baseball picks

Nationals starting slow but I sense a rally this inning.......

It's been a while.....

I just updated my games back to May 2 for streaks...... my wife went into surgery and it last 13+ hours this past 13 and if you saw her tonight and how upbeat and how healthily she is eating, you would think its a miracle because I saw her in those first couple of hours out of surgery and you would not believe the contrast 24-48 hrs later and now..... it blows my mind the power of the body to heal!! I have been lucky myself so, its good to be back and looking at baseball and finally finding time to look at my analytics which was a passion I missed.

I got to thinking....there are a shit ton on 2 game streaks that are SUCCESSFUL ! ....whether its Win, Loss, Over or Under. MAYBE, i AM looking at my stats the wrong way a little. I should be sticking taking repeat games or teams to hit a 2nd streak in a row.....and of course, go after the best trending longer streaks

Let me update what has transpired these past 8-9 days as far as streak data....back at ya with the tale of the tape

 Appreciate you sharing all your work, and good luck!!!  

@Last2thirst

Best of luck and hope all is well with your wife…

Streak runs the last 12 days (below). I am going to go through each team and bring up their records for 2 win streaks so you TAKE that team after they have won 1 game after a loss....take them the next game. I will report my results when I am done. I am still not showing plays until I think I am in a rhythm. Lots to do and hopefully later this month I can really sink my teeth back into 'everything baseball' before the World Cup starts of course!!

hit Win strk of 3  > 20 - 26
hit Win strk of 4  >  10 - 14
hit Win strk 5 - 10 > 17 - 10

Today: Milwaukee (4 gamer > going for 5 in a row)

hit Lose strk of 3  > 21 - 21
hit Lose strk of 4  > 12 - 11
hit Lose strk 5 - 10 > 14 - 13
hit Over strk of 3  > 16 - 14
hit Over strk of 4  > 16 - 7

Today: no one  (Pittsburgh and SF going for a streak of 3)

hit Over strk 5-10 >  15 - 18
hit Under strk of 3 > 31 - 21 << this trend is continuing (pitchers settled and ready)

Today: Cincy, Houston, Seattle, CWS all with 2 Unders in a row

hit Under strk of 4 >  17 - 13 > consider NYY, A's, Texas, LAA, Milw, Cubs

 
hit Under strk 5 - 10 > 12 - 9 > consider SD, Ariz, STL, Mets, Tampa, Balt, Boston

She is getting better every day...and I am chef and her bitch for whatever she needs.... I love it because she has done it for me before so this is good for me 

Appreciate it 

MtTum 

So, I tested a couple theories today on what I spoke about with recent data and the law of 2 streak..... with some success

My concluding picks were (simulation and parlay plays in local proline):

Tampa Bay Rays ML

Seattle /Houston UNDER ( both were on a 3 game UNDER streak completion going for 4 in a row)

Cleveland ML

Cleveland Under 

Yankees Under

Zona/Texas Under << both on long Under streaks

If suggested and played with account Units, it would have hit 5 - 1

I will declare tomorrow if I see what is currently hot + pick the best 2 streak situations whether 2nd win, 2nd loss, 2nd Over or 2nd Under in a row....assuming I have time tomorrow

@Last2thirst

I played those picks yesterday in my KING OF COVERS contest too > 05/11/2026 5-1-0 83.33% +2270

Onto tonight: - after inputting yesterday's results, UNDERS are cruising now....complete reversal of first 3 weeks of season! Streaks of two hitting in some instances...still working on that data and MAN, am I finding some wild data in particular the YANKEES who basically almost NEVER get halted on any 2 game streak >> they continue it for a while... I will update when done

Tonight's parlays with some soccer stabs (small stuff):

-4 game win streaks not holding up > stronger pitcher with LAA  << taking them ML

-last night's UNDER in NYY game broke a 4 game matchup OVER streak and the UNDER is streaking 4 or more games for both teams  > taking UNDER in Yankee game 

-green monster at Boston is not protected by the wind and Red Sox throw out a PINATA bullpen lefty for some Phillies BP coming up..... Red Sox have to face the bulldog Wheeler and not hitting well

PHILLIES runline!!

-TB/Jays UNDER 8 > after a brief stint for the OVER for TB, both teams return to UNDER form and Corbin has only given up 5 RBIs vs TB lineup and ZERO HRs in 65 ABs.....that is damn good

-SD/MILW UNDER 8.5 > both with excellent bullpens and both going for 4 game UNDER which is hot 

All other games pose ??? ....  

love following your picks thanx for posting and all your work

Thank you, but you wouldn't have said so in the first 3-4 weeks of the season..... I took an excellent NCAAB season and thought I could just walk in and produce in MLB right off the bat, but nope, I got spanked so I think the value of this thread might be to offer what is trending or reverse trending, offer my thoughts about some situations and let you guys pick from the trends which one makes sense....

Down $1400 but killing it with soccer and some MLB picks, NHL or NBA in 3 way parlays ....was posting these for a while but life got real busy and soon I shut it down for 4 months over the summer with no extra income other than what I bet or invest

Appreciate you spending the time to say that ROADKING 

Yesterday, nailing a 3rd win streak was very hot ! Long Under Streaks over 3 games was not that great.....

I sense a reversal but nothing official....need to see what happens today