L2T Early Season Streak Betting (Mar - May 15)

The Streak threads I did last year were all different, depending on what time of the season it was. I am going break up my 3 Streak threads into these periods:

March - May 15 (Cool weather/Teams Adjusting)

May 16 - Aug 1 (Warm weather/Mid Season Positioning)

Aug 1 - Sept 27 (Changing weather/ Final Push)

1U = $100

HALF = $50 

Bet365 = site (juice usually only 5% but will state ML odds or odds lower than 1.90)

Bankroll = $4K

Goal = $2K return or more or 50% (NCAAB hit over 100% and then gave back over 20% in Tourney past week or so)

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Premise of Streak Betting: - use similar pattern as last year > bet only after 2 in a row wins, losess, Overs, Unders....or after 3 in a row ....or after 4 in a row

(I tend to stop at 5 since odds influence or the value is betting to END the streak with higher odds on the other team/better situational play)

Last Year Early Season Session - 1st week trends 

a. Breaking Overs > next game UNDER =   4 - 0 

Tomorrow: Tampa -STL Under? Wash - Cubs? 

b. Breaking Unders > next game to go OVER =   2 - 10 

Tomorrow: - Stay Under? > Balt/Minn? Col/Miami?

Monday: NYY? SF? Padres? Detroit?

c. Breaking a Win Streak > fade the win in 3rd game =  2 - 5

Tomorrow: > Win 3rd in a row? > Toronto? Yankees? Detroit? LA Angels? NY Mets? Miami? STL? LAD?

d. Breaking a Losing Streak > take to win 3rd game or 4th game after 2-3 losses =  2 - 5

Tomorrow: NONE 

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Will have a look and make my first play(s) soon.........

TBH, I think AI is horseshit for a lot of things, and valuable for others..... my partner and I have designed a scientific confirmation model in an industry WITHOUT AI because we feel the ones that created a model with it have errors and too much bias.....

So, this year, I am tracking ODDSHARK computer TOTALS as a first test:

Today    6 - 7 -1   with TOTALS  (just starting to follow)  << their first 8 plays were all OVERs *5 - 3

Play #1 Sunday - Minny/Baltimore Under 9 x 1U (1.85)

- Baz only 10 ABs vs Baltimore and zero hits vs this lineup

- Ober has a .170 BA vs Orioles lineup 

I looked at all other games that were streaks and none of the others appealed to me

the totals at that website are a fade for me. they havent won any money with totals since 2020 and that was less than 800$ for the season. just my 2 cents.

I bet it will turn out that way but I am all about tracking to ensure that is the case....so I appreciate your recollection of it and lets put it to a number. NO WAY do I follow any kind of service like that. It defeats the enjoyment and purpose of doing analytics for me which is all about the challenge and sifting.... those that chase or hedge better be the 1 out of 100 who might hit > 56% win rate because that is what you need if doing standard 1U plays....I will mix it up as I get accustomed to trends and situations and that is how I make my money and survive horses and sports betting 

Monday: - the Streak charting has commenced > Wins, Losses, Overs, Unders

Going for 3rd win in a row > Detroit, NYY, Cincy, Texas

- Teams going for 3rd win including Sunday are  4 - 4 ** no reason to mention again until this category has swung one way to 60%

Going for 4th win in a row > Toronto, LAD

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Going for 3rd loss in a row > SF, SD, KC, Bos, 

-Teams going for a 3rd loss including Sunday are  4 - 4 ** no reason to mention again until this category has swung one way to 60%

Going for 4th loss in a row > Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, Chisox

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Going for 3rd OVER in a row > Texas, LAA, Houston, Phillies, Nationals, Cubs

Hitting 3 Overs in a row = 2 - 0

Going for 4th OVER in a row > Tampa, St.Louis

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Going for 3rd UNDER in a row > SF, SD, Pirates, Mets, KC, Detroit, NYY

Hitting 3 Unders in a row = 2 - 4

Going for 4th UNDER in a row > Rockies, Miami

Monitoring all of these streaks.... I will lean to FADING a streak from continuing more likely but, it all comes down to their next matchup

Monday:

Play #1 - Texas ML x 1U +105

-Chris Bassitt is a gas can for the Rangers > 65 ABs vs them and 4 HR/16 RBIs and .308 BA vs 

-Texas going for a 3rd in a row win 

- I like this situation

Hunting for more tomorrow but this stood out...

Play #2 Monday  - Cubs - Angels Over 9.5 x HALF U

-Angels starting a so-so bullpen pitcher who induces pretty good contact and especially from righties and Cubs traded for some strong right hand bats...Cubs need to get going and a pitcher like this is perfect for them with their extra work in the cage

-wind blowing out

-Cabrera also a contact type pitcher with very fast fastball but any carry of a fly ball should sail to the fences/gaps and Angels are bruising pitchers in their first few games 

Trying to figure out if the Jays are going to open up the Dome tonight...its 70F outside and first warm day in a while with no threat of rain tonight but yes tomorrow

- Sugano keeps scores low vs Jays and I think Ponce will too as he has wicked stuff ....high probability of down force winds blowing off the lake if they open the dome and this should keep HRs in the park ...I could be wrong...leaning to the UNDER ...almost feel like heading down and watching it live myself (20 minute streetcar ride and walk)

Play #3 - OVER 8 TB/Brewers x HALF U

-the two of 3 hottest hitting teams to start the season and both pitchers had a bit of a rough spring especially Nick Martinez in his last outing and this Brewers team is not the type to go against without your A stuff and control

-Jays scored 11 runs in his last spring outing in about 3 innings

-TB knows how to manufacture runs so I expect runs 

Dome open gonna be a game time decision in Toronto....winds picked up on my walk and some clouds coming in but nothing threatening

If it opens, I like the UNDER ...its at 0VER 8 @1.86 right now

Ok ... 1 - 2 EVEN  (tonight)

 1 - 3 ATS/TOTALS  - 1 U  (season)

Early on, survival until I get a rhythm of situations and trends will require pressing on the pedal harder on some plays and lighter on others

Back at it tomorrow or not. I don't press unless what I see makes good sense to me

Very interesting.... 3 games left to record tonight but looking at 8 streaks of 4 games and results

4 game streaks of either Wins, Losses, Overs or Unders = 1 - 7 so far 

3 game streaks of any kind  = 28 - 14    to get to 3 in a row

I will update which ones are best if over 59% 

- UNDER STREAKS of 3 are  7 - 4 

- WIN STREAKS of 3 are  7 - 4

- LOSING STREAKS of 3 are  9 - 4 

- OVER STREAKS of 3 are  5 - 2

Teams of 2 or 3 game streaks you can see here in the standings > https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings

Going for an Under streaks of 3 =  A's, Seattle, Pirates, Reds, Dodgers

Going for an Under streaks of 4 =  Yankees, KC, Mets, Atlanta, Padres, Giants 

Going for an OVER streak of 3 = Chisox, Cubs 

Going for an OVER streak of 4 = Houston, Phillies, Nationals

Just an update on my numbers (corrections) and significant trends:

**Win streak to 3rd game now = 7 - 6 (correction) 

** Under streak to 3rd game now = 8 - 5 (correction)

*** Any type of streak to 4 games = 1 - 11 now

*** successfully extending a losing streak to a 3rd loss in a row = 10 - 3

Surely the 1 - 11 streak of hitting a 4 gamer has to be broken and begin to revert to a closer mean toward .500?

Best Candidate today = Texas with DeGrom x 1.5 U ML @ 1.76

-Eflin hasn't pitched live mlb game since the end of July .... 

-DeGrom only held back from opening day due to strained neck but better and he owns the Orioles lifetime 

-I'll take a spin and be a 'fish' for this line  (you know how baseball is > when it looks to good it never happens!)

Just got 1.8 on my ML play .... I wonder if DeGrom is a maybe now....oh well, its laid 

This is WHY I like following streaks......and keeping records which doesn't take more than 30 min a night or I can even take a few days off if I want 

Big streak fact posted earlier > *** Any type of streak to 4 games = 1 - 11 now

*** TEXAS was going for a 4th win in a row...

> do you stay with the number blindly or look at the matchup??

> does that number start to turn and we see some teams start to put together 4 games streaks??

** I upped my bet on logic and the pitching matchup on the mound and that really is what betting is for....not coinflipping but analysis using the data situationally WITH the matchup

 Texas with DeGrom x 1.5 U ML @ 1.76  

Season  2 - 3  (+$35)

Great call on the Strangers!!!

How things can change in one evening..... LAST NIGHT POSTED: 

4 game streaks of either Wins, Losses, Overs or Unders = 1 - 7 so far  (now 9 - 18)

3 game streaks of any kind  = 28 - 14    to get to 3 in a row ( now 35 - 22)

- continuing UNDER STREAKS of 3 are  7 - 4  > now  11 - 7

3 game WIN STREAKS achieved =  negative record

- Continuing LOSING STREAKS of 3 are  9 - 4 > now 11 - 4

- Continuing OVER STREAKS of 3 are  5 - 2 > now  6 - 3

Wednesday Play - ML parlay > Detroit 1.66 ML with Dodgers 1.36 ML x 1 U pays +124

-Skubal with good numbers vs Zona....Gallen not so much vs Detroit

-Yamamoto is almost hitless vs Cleveland and Williams has been rocked before by Dodgers 

BOL .... letting my numbers brew before I start to hit my stride 

Thursday:

Play #1 - Atlanta-Arizona UNDER 9 x 1U  

-Atlanta going for 6 Unders in a row and Lopez with strong numbers vs Ariz and Ryne Nelson with really good numbers vs Atlanta...only concern with him is walks but LOPEZ not so much

-Atlanta so so vs righties and Arizona only .238 vs righties

***caution > last April Atlanta went to Ariz and these were the totals in that series > 10,15,10

Season now = 2 - 4  (-$65)

Play #2 - Mets/SF Under 7.5 x 2U

-so many stats aligning here.....

-SF with 0 HR vs lefties and hitting .143

-Mets hitting only .175 vs lefties so far

- Mets do not hit Ray well throughout his career and he throws a heavy fastball in the bottom and top of the zone with cold evening of under 60F 

-Ray has only walked 2 batters in 85 ABs vs Mets giving up only 2 HRs so you can bet he is going to challenge the Mets hitters

-Peterson gives up a lot of walks BUT he has a very strong record vs SF who already are hitting anemically

This game smells like a 3-1, 4-2 ballgame at most !

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

 GL 

Thanks Guys 

Just looked at last year's thread and where the stats were in first few days of April:

Continued UNDER STREAKS were 19 - 14 

(this season 20-15 for continued streaks of 2 games and more)

Continued OVER STREAKS last year were 12 - 9

(this season 11 - 8)

Continued WIN STREAKS last year were 16 - 8

(this season 12 - 15)

Continued LOSING STREAKS last year were 18 - 6 

(this season 17 - 12 ) << have confidence in this one I think and the UNDER streaks

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Does Boston go for a 6th Loss in a row tomorrow?

Other Lossing Streaks:

Tampa, Chisox, Seattle, NY Mets, Washington, Cincy all on a 2 game losing streak

Minnesota on a 3 game losing streak

Detroit on a 4 game losing streak

UNDER STREAKS:

2 GAME > Colorado, Blue Jays

3 GAME > St.Louis, Cleveland

4 GAME > Dodgers, A's

5 GAME > Atlanta, Mets (do I get both tonight?)