L2T Early Season Streak Betting (Mar - May 15)

Dam. Seven in three. Ouch. Smell was a little off this go around.

So 5 UNDERS in a row causes teams to freak out at the plate in their 6th game?? 

Man, I really walked into these two plays 

Looks like I am going to have to deploy the String bets of DOUBLE UPs ..... win 1 of 3 next plays

No sweat. Strange stuff going on early in the season. MIN v KC did a similar whiplash yesterday and today. Crazy.

Going to have to walk Brew, before I can run 

Likely playing these after checking matchups (in local parlays): 

-gonna 'test' some strategies on my streak data before I commit to a double up streak play

Dodgers-Nationals Over 9.5

Jays Under 7.5 and ML in parlays combos (Cease is unhittable it seems, to start the year)

Tigers Under 8

Yankees Under 8

Padres/Bosox Over 8.5

Cincy/Texas Over 8 

Double Up Play #1 CUBS! x 1U (Cleveland have not got one hit or walk vs Cade Horton)/ Cleveland has to shake off of the jet lag from West Coast trip

Phillies/Colorado Under 10

Brewers ML 1.90  << 3rd favorite play

Seattle ML  1.62 ML with Blue Jays ML < < 2nd favorite play (Woo is unhittable vs Angels lineup in 54 ABs = OHRs)

Oakland ML 1.9 (break Houston's 5 game win streak and have an effective pitcher vs their lineup historically)

Atl/Arizona Under 9 (E-Rod was lights out early on WBC and first game/Holmes with good numbers vs Zona)

Giants + Under 

@Last2thirst

 Good luck and thanks for sharing great info.

I appreciate that... my play picking sucks but the whole point of the thread is to help others in THEIR DECISIONS .... people should fade me for a while 

Looks good but I'm liking the Phils bats to take us over at Coors. And a sprinkle on YRFI just for good measure.

@Last2thirst

You found us some piñata pitchers in Nats Dodgers game!!!

Streak Updates: Game Result

Completing Win streaks of 3 > 3 - 1 HOT  since Thursday update

Today's Candidates > Brewers, Guardians, Twins

Completing Win streaks of 4 > 0 - 2 COLD  > now 2 - 7 on the season 

Today's Candidates > Pirates, Braves, Phillies 

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Completing Losing streaks of 3 > 3 - 3 NEUTRAL since Thursday > now 15 - 8 on the season 

Continuing Losing Streak of 3 Candidates > Blue Jays, Rangers, Angels 

Continuing Losing Streaks of 4 > halting them 2 - 0 since Thursday > 4 - 7 continuing on the season

Continuing Losing Streak of 5 > 1 - 3 on the season

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Will report on OVER /UNDERS next 

Streak Updates: TOTAL Result

Completing an OVER streak of 3 >  4 - 3 since Thursday > 12 - 7 on the season

Candidates for a 3rd possible Over > Brewers, Nationals, Phillies, Mets, Yankees

Completing an OVER streak of 4 >  2 - 1 since Thursday > 4 - 5 on the season 

Candidates for a 4th OVER   > Orioles, Rays, Pirates

Completing an OVER streak of 5th/6th >  3 - 0 on the season 

Candidates for a 5th/6TH OVER in a row > Giants, Marlins

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Completing a Streak of 3 UNDERS >  0 - 2 COLD since Thursday > 13 - 10 on the season

Candidates to Complete 3 Unders > Tigers

Completing a Streak of 4 UNDERS > 2 - 0 HOT since Thursday > 7 - 6 on the season

Candidates to Complete 4 Unders > NONE

Completing Streak of 5 or 6 Unders >  2 - 5

Candidates > Guardians, Cardinals 

Double Play #2 - Brewers ML @1.85 x 2U

-Partick is a trustworthy pitcher and the Brewers are 5 - 1, albeit a record compiled at home

-what I like about the Brewers are a few things:

a. #2 rated Bullpen in baseball

b. one of the highest BA to start season

c. excellent BA during the day and vs righties

This young pitcher for KC looks like he has nice stuff but that will be put to the test vs the BREWERS 

I am cold as ice (2 - 7) on the season so this is NOT a recommendation....just using my DOUBLE UP system to get some UNITS back to even in my account as well as letting the April TRENDS brew in my streak system

@Last2thirst

   I 

GONNA NEED IT AMIGO ....on tilt in two sports....college basketball and now MLB...its been a horrible 30 days for me but I sense a turnaround soon 

i've got a lead!!!....its a miracle 

3 - 7 Now > (-$285) << was - $435

Double Play #2 - Brewers ML @1.85 x 2U 

Good ole DOUBLE UPS ....over the years, they tend to force me out of deep declines .....they can also increase your returns even though you are betting under 60% on the season...probably be my way to go for a little while and be selective 

Brewers cash!!!

Thanks Brother!!!

Some Impressions + Key Trends After 8-10 Games Played Per Team:

American League - Scuffling/Underperforming with their Lineup

Performed Above Expectations Last Year?

-Toronto > yes

-Baltimore  > no

-Boston > no

-Seattle > no

-Detroit > yes

Who do you grab value lines on? All teams with NOs listed above/below!

----------------------------------------------------------------

National League:

NY Mets > no 

Cubs > no

Padres > no 

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HOTTEST STREAK TRENDs:

Teams on a 4 or 5 game OVER Streak are 6 - 0 to continue going OVER

Teams that have lost 4 or 5 games > do not continue losing > 4 - 1 don't

Teams that that have gone Under for 4 or 5 games > do not continue, but go OVER the next game > 6 - 2

Teams that have gone 2 games in a row OVER > Continue going OVER for a 3rd game = 17 - 10

Strong Leans Tomorrow Without Delving into Pitching Matchup/Weather:

Tampa > OVER 

Chisox > OVER 

Houston > OVER 

Miami > OVER

SF > OVER 

Dodgers > OVER

A'S > OVER

Twins > OVER

Nationals > not to LOSE 

Guardians > go OVER 

Monday Natty Game >> Michigan -7.5 and OVER >> It won't be close and here is why....

-UCONN are not good at FT line

-Michigan speed/precision with hands on defense is on another level vs any team in college

- Cadeaux pick and roll or open FT with Mara up top and Yaxel or other shooters on wing are too deadly

- UCONN rarely scores more than 70 and won't get that many vs this defense 

-UCONN 86th three point facing a very strong outside 3 pt defense that they will find it hard to accomplish this vs Michigan #8 in the country for 3pt defense/#1 for FG defense and UCONN does not OFF rebound well....they better shoot lights out to have a chance .....look what happened when Arizona tried to use Krivas who could score at will > Michigan adjusted and hit their 3 pt shots and pick and roll for easy dunks so Arizona fell behind if Krivas could not score every time 

-I give UCONN top marks for basketball smarts but Michigan can roll 8-9 players like that and even smarter and bigger/faster 

-Michigan should score 77-85 pts > 82 - 69 is my prediction roughly for a score

***last and most important point > do people realize that ARIZONA and MICHIGAN were 2 of the 5 highest KENPOM rated teams ever to play against each other in a FINAL FOUR and it was not even close!! Sorry, UCONN does not rate in the TOP 50 all time most likely

Sunday:

I kind of want to FADE what I shouldn't, which is where a team goes UNDER for many games and I should go OVER....

- trouble is, that is a strong/cold wind blowing to the right field pole and if a lefty hitter, it will be hard to keep that in play in my opinion, let alone turn on it.....outfield defenses will shift to cover gaps with most left handed hitters

-Cubs not executing at the plate/Guardians bullpen has been terrific

UNDER 7.5 Cubs/Guardians x HALF U << going against the Trend of UNDERS turning into OVERS after 4-5 games of UNDERS 

Nationals +150 ML x HALF U and UNDER 9 runs x HALF U << going with the trend here of teams not losing more than 4 or 5 games and they have a lefthander on the hill which the Dodgers are weakest against at .220 BA

My brain may not be screwed on properly today....but lets see what happens.

I am looking for 1 play to start a DOUBLE UP string and will report if I find one

Double Up Play of the Day > JAYS-CHISOX Over 8 @1.95 x 1U

-VERY windy blowing out to centre field

-in this park, I have researched that the ball really carries in all temperatures out to centre and pushes a lot of flyballs into home runs

• High Run Environment: When wind blows strongly toward the outfield, nearly a quarter of all fly balls leave the park, and the venue becomes a significant "Over" spot for betting.
• Specific Conditions: While winds blowing out to left field are generally the most productive across MLB, sustained winds blowing out to center field—typical in the "Windy City"—consistently increase home run totals, specifically noted in June and summer months.

Also, I research what do high winds do to changeups and curveballs with their spin? 

-answer > balls become flat and do not operate in movement as much in those conditions

This puts Eric Lauer at a disadvantage as  high strike pitcher with not a lot of velocity and the Chisox hitter hit well at home and will sit on his fastball or changeup and hit some balls out or for good contact for extra bases 

-Davis Martin has a high velocity 'kick changeup' its called that will act like a slow fastball in this wind

-BOTH pitchers have been hit well before ..... and this game falls into the CHISOX OVER TREND of 5 games OVER continuing with another OVER

Jays MUST get their bats going because starting tomorrow, they are looking forward to facing the Dodgers so you can bet they have put in a lot of extra BP and are dialed up and focused for this one for a good result at the plate

Double Up Leg #2 x 2U > parlay > Atl/LAA Under 10 alternative total @1.4 with Dodgers ML 1.66 > pays +136 so +$272 profit for a $200 bet 

-Jays bats are cold as ice and Wrobleski has over 20 ABS with zero walks and 7 strikeouts vs Jays.... very low BA 

-Scherzer gives up the HR with his flyball type of pitching style and dome closed in T.O. today so ball will carry with a big crowd and it will be sold out

- Soriano and Sale are both lights out and low OPS/BA vs the batter lineups they face lifetime so I juiced the TOTAL up to 10 runs and that should be sufficient to combo for my nice payout

Double Up Leg #2 x 2U > parlay > Atl/LAA Under 10 alternative total @1.4 with Dodgers ML 1.66 > pays +136 so +$272 profit for a $200 bet   i wouldn't have got it if I didn't change to an alternative TOTAL 

Season 5 - 10 (-$163 << DOUBLE UPs are getting me back in the game)

I will look for one tomorrow 

Great game in Michigan-UCONN but I did not get my parlays that had spread for Michigan but got the ones that included them ML....profitable day !

@Last2thirst

 Bol!!

Two Plays today: - NO DOUBLE UP plays

Play #1 - SD/Pitt Over 6 x HALF U - Skenes may be one of the most overrated pitchers of the past 2 seasons.....he has started with a 9 ERA and Pivetta has struggled too except for last outing .... Padres bats coming alive and Pirates are on a long win streak so  I think this total is bonkers low 

Play #2 Cincy -Miami Under 7 x HALF U

-Cincy on a long UNDER streak and can play defense and good bullpen / Miami's Alcantara with excellent numbers vs the Reds 

Play #3 Houston - Colorado OVER 11 x 1U << ride the OVER train

-warm air/ wind blowing out to centre / poor pitchers/ very hot scoring team in Houston with 9 OVERS in a row and hit Freeland very well / Colorado have an improved hitting lineup and Burrows is not great