I'm Back, and I'm betting the same wager AGAIN...

The issue is you are getting a great number on a team that was the favorite all year to win the WS and never could have got a number this good.

So, if that team wins the next two at home to even the series you will never get a number that good.

You are around 22% to B/E.  Then assuming even -170 in each of the next two games the implied probability is right around 40%.

Trends matter.  But each also has to be taken in its context.  For example, is the 'best'; team usually on the road the first two games, etc.?

MLB's historical accounting reports that teams trailing 0–2 in a best-of-seven postseason series have come back to win 16 of 95 times through the 2025 postseason. That means 79 of 95 teams with a 2–0 lead won the series, or 83.2%. 

That is a comeback rate of 16.8% for the team down 0–2—not 5.3%, which is what a 2-for-38 record would imply.

I agree that +350 looks unattractive based on the historical baseline, but I wouldn't say it is automatically no value. The decisive question is whether the Dodgers' true World Series probability is above 22.22%. The 0–2 record is strong evidence against them, but historical averages alone cannot establish their exact current probability.

So, IF someone -- like the poster here -- has their 'true' probability higher considering the upcoming matchups and what they see as a 2-2 or even a 3-2 matchup going forward, THEN they have to determine for themselves IF their is true +EV value.

But if you are someone that blindly goes with trends I understand how you would dismiss it out of hand.

Tonight, the wounded animal bites back.

ADDING: 

 Dodgers to win the World Series +350

$50,000 to win $175,000

TOTAL WAGER: 

$225,000 to win $420,000

the risk involved in the next 3 to 5 games backing the dodgers is so high despite them being favorites but again I think that is what makes you a GAMBLER. 


If you are after for the money you would back the Brewers per game to hedge your series bet on the Dodgers but of course nothing is worth having than a spike of dopamine in this cruel world we live in. 


Good luck! 

Bottom line, these 2026 Dodgers cannot defeat these 2026 Brewers two games in a row - at any stage of the series - therefore they cannot possibly win 4 times. 

Of course they CAN.  Because they have done it earlier in the year.  
But CAN they do it in this year’s playoffs.  
Maybe, maybe not.  

If you treat it as a bet and try to determine if you have +EV or not you could break it down and see.  

For example, looking at odds around -170 or so.  The odds for them to win the next two games consecutively would be what — 35% or so, maybe around +270.  
In other words, no bookmaker would give you something along the lines of +1200 or something that would resemble that it could NOT happen.  

Even if you consider it over the course of the total remaining games it would probably be around -225 or something like that.

There is NO doubt MIL is in the driver’s seat and should win the series.  

But would anyone really take a wager on MIL winning two consecutive on the next two games?  Not likely because it is a bad wager.  

Just like if you were to wait and bet live on whichever team scores first.  It is very likely that team will win.  But you are betting into -EV a lot of times. 

SO, my point to the folks that do have a futures bet on LAD or want one is that this is the best +EV you likely saw on them all year.  

It is up to that individual to figure out what their probability is against the implied probability and see if they have an edge enough to make it a +EV bet for them.  

The folks on your side should ‘feel’ that there is enough of +EV to take MIL now instead of waiting.  If MIL wins the next game there is nothing available for sure for MIL bettors with value.  

HOWEVER, I get that you are more of a trend bettor and that is fine as well.  But is there +EV at this point in MIL because of the trend you cited?

If you only go back as far as you did with the trend — possibly.  But if you go back a bit further with the trend — maybe not as much.  

The other thing MIL bettors need to decide is if MIL will go with Mis in game 5 if LAD gets ‘lucky’ and wins the next two games?  Or do they wait until they get back home and send him out in game 6 — knowing he will NOT be available in a game 7.  

This game is must-win of course for LAD. 
BUT a case can be made that it would be very helpful to MIL as well.  Because if LAD bats wake up and they feel like they can win — the pressure shifts quite quickly to MIL and what to do with pitching scenarios.  They do not have the luxury there that LAD does.  

For what it’s worth most of the professionals I know are backing MIL tonight and like a sweep or at best a gentleman’s sweep.

But if you are a LAD fan or think they are the right side — this is the best time all year to back them for maximum profit.

@Raiders22

Theoretically they can.  In practice I too dont' think they can and I'm an LA guy.  The issue isn't with their starting pitching it's with the relievers.  They are hitting the ball but they are also giving up more runs (clearly) than they should to win a game.

If they can get their middle guys right, I think they can make a series of it.  But if they do, then I will jump on the Brewers to win the series as I think they are the superior team despite the discrepancy in payroll.  

The Brewers have historically been awful on the road in the playoffs so I'm curious to see how they set things up tonight against Snell.  This is why the Dodgers needed to have home field advantage.  Ohtani needs to be in the lineup bc even a mediocre Ohtani is better than most other players.  And person for whatever reason finds magic in the postseason so I'd be surprised if he's also not playing.

I don't have a future in this series so I can say I do hope you (Har) win but there is no reason to think the Brewers aren't in the midst of their own magical season.  And don't forget NO MLB team has won 3 WS in a row.  Best of luck 

@Raiders22

 Actually if you look at it in betting perspective there is no value to bet on the dodgers per game in games 3,4,5. Also even if Dodgers win the series against brew crew, what are their chances to win the world series. there is too much unknown and with too little value on dodgers world series odds seems not enough.

@LAGameofInches

 Very good points. 
I don’t have a future on it either.  

I think ‘some’ points can be made for LAD though.  
They have seen MIL relievers now.  
It is NOT so much a case of MIL pitching keeping LAD bats down because LAD bats have been dead for a good stretch.  

The issue is LAD wins at home BUT they lose you money at home if you blindly bet them at home because of the over inflated lines. 
I do NOT think this one or tomorrow’s will be because of how well MIL has played.  

Imagine what the line would be if they had split in Milwaukee.  

I sort of disagree about Ohtani.  I agree up to now. Because he is a threat at all times — even if he walks because of his speed.  
This is exactly why NYY should have put Judge out there. 

BUT NOW Ohtani is forcing his at bats and wildly swinging.  The pitchers are not worried about him.  They are going right at him now.  
Try a new guy that may be amped up for the playoffs. 

@Way2Good

I mostly agree.  

What would you put the number at to make it have value reasonably?

Woukd you take 5-1 or what?

@LAGameofInches

  And don't forget NO MLB team has won 3 WS in a row. 

Huh?  Of course they have.  NYY in the late 90s and the As in the 70s.  

But EACH has to be viewed separately as a wagering prospect.   Past ones have NO effect on future ones.  

@HarDix

 fake money

Word salad. It’s a good one, but still just that, a word salad. 

Game 3 action, I’m on the Brewers +158 for ten, +157 for five, and +155 for seven.

@Quaffer 

exactly!!