I may have finally found a winning formula

Over the last 2 seasons I've dabbled in everything, totals, run lines, alternate run lines, dog ML's, etc.... Results were mixed and I'm down about 10 units over the last 2 seasons.  This season I've taken a new approach and it's lead to a 26-10 start.  Here's what I'm doing:

- Betting ONLY chalk.  I feel that betting dogs is all about finding value.  Value doesn't matter when you're picking losers.  Great, you think a line should be +120 and it's actually +150?  Good for you, that only helps if you can pick a winner.  ANY TEAM THAT IS +150 is +150 FOR A REASON. Bad pitcher, bad offense, on the road, up against a stud pitcher, etc., etc.  Why are we backing teams that have these flaws? 

We need to focus on betting GOOD PITCHERS, GOOD OFFENSES, AND HOME TEAMS.  Those are the basic principals I've been applying and so far it's worked very well. 

Now, 26-10 is obviously a bit misleading as I'm betting all chalk so it's easier to pick winners.  My 10 losers were an average of -148.  With that math, I need to pick over 60% to  break even.  I honestly think that if I stick to backing good pitchers, good offenses, and home teams, I can run around the mid 60's for the whole season.

I'll use this thread for all my posted plays.  Feel free to tail or fade or whatever else you want.  We all have the same goal so if you guys can take anything away from this post then that's great. Hopefully I can stay hot and spread some winners around to you guys.

GL ALL!!!

Tonight's plays Detroit -150 and Baltimore -150

GL ALL

how do to the Mets look to you

The linesmaker has already considered you type of bettors.He wants you to try and hit 60%.The problem is that your not winning 100% or even 90% of your wager.The casino doesn't mind starting out the season with easy winners for you bettors,because you won't stop betting.In time you'll go down with your good pitchers on good teams at home.Happens every year.

baseball is all about parleys....dogs are the best..all you need is 1 good 3 or 4 teamer and your set for the month hit a 4 teamer last year for 11 gs

The linesmaker has already considered EVERY type of bettor.  What do you mean I'm not winning 100% or 90% of my wager? 

Mejia isn't a good pitcher, ERA aside.  And they can't score any runs either.  They ARE at home and they ARE playing Miami but this is a no play for me. 

DET
BAL

See you guys tomorrow

Well good luck to the books trying to take down the Hat's systems. They gonna need every bit of it! 

Sunday 4/28 so far im on

STL -175
DET -155
TB -160

might tack on the yanks in the night game will report back GL ALL

STL winner
TB loser
Det rained out

Adding nyy -170 tonight gl all

NYY

YTD:

Straight: 29-12, +12.15 units
Parlays: 2-1, +2.9 units
Series Bets: 2-1, +.75 units

GL ALL

Monday night one play SF -160

GL ALL

 the way to go is to bet derivatives,: team totals, first fives I like first fives , try to keep the bullpens out of the mix,   gotta be prepared to pay juice though...the oddsmakers do not pay too close attention,, so they juice you 

 

 

Rip 100:

I used to play F5's all the time and then I realized that they're not good when you're fading a pitcher. The 6th+ inning is when he's most tired and most likely to give up runs. You lose that late chance to hammer him by playing first 5's. Now conversely if you're backing a good pitcher they make a lot more sense.

Adding stl -165 tonight

Gl all

You should list your posted record.We can't verify you were 26-10 to start.Shouldn't really matter if your winning.Thanks

 

 

I won't cut and paste from my sportsbook because it has my info on it but I will cut and paste from my excel spreadsheet if you wish?  I'm not here to show off I just want to provide some input and post some plays and if I'm winning then great, people can tail, and if I'm not then that's fine too fade away.  I will try to post all plays from here on out with as much notice as possible

SF
STL

0-2 start to the week..

Back on track tonight:

PHI -155
SF -165
BOS -175

all to win one unit

GL ALL

A lot of juice usually won't result in much profit but Goodluck on your plays

Adding BOS series -165 also... Lackey vs. Bedard, Peavy vs. Ramos big advantage matchups and of course they are AT HOME.

GL ALL

PHI
SF no action, pitching change
BOS
BOS series bet up 1-0

Tonight:

LAA -155 - WIlson has been good and Cleveland has struggled at the plate, particularly against lefties.

LAD -155 - Greinke is lights out and Gibson is absolutely horrendously bad.  MIN has been scoring some runs however ranking 5th in OPS, which is an issue.  This is just an absolute fade Gibson play for me.

GL ALL

LAA
LAD

Two afternoon plays:

LAD -160 - omg mike pelfrey is the worst starting pitcher in the league.  twice as many walks as Ks.  haren has been fantastic in the early going

BOS -155 - ramos isn't any good and boston is at home - peavy looks good.

good pitcher good offenses and home teams thats what were doing......

GL ALL

Think twice about Ramos. He doesn't have overpowering stuff but he is very deceptive. TB has been running like crap lately, so a good spot to have a breakout game. Peavy gets no run support and TB always plays Boston or NYY hard.

Yes they have been playing poorly; I always try to go with the trend as opposed to trying to decide when the trend ends.

Ramos may be deceptive but he has as many walks as Ks this year and is projected to have a mid to high 4's era.

Thanks for the opinion! Gl to you