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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game?

    «First Previous 123 ... 678 Next Last»
    rangerz2478
    14allall41
    jaybosstein
    famfatale88
    HutchEmAll
    ...
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    Views: 15207
    Posts: 185
    «First Previous 123 ... 678 Next Last»
     
    rangerz2478
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:37 PM ET #126

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    Of course they have zero control over the actual outcome.  What they do have control over is prediction of outcome.  A good capper can predict what, 60-65% correctly?  A good capper has a fraction of the resources available to them that the odds makers have.  They hire the best statisticians, psychologists,  and field researchers money can buy.  They  have access to pro teams that we can only dream about.  They have complex algorithms written by the brightest nerds in the world and have all the right information to populate the algorithms. 

    A good capper can predict game outcomes 60-65%.  I'm willing to bet the oddsmakers can predict outcomes at a rate of 80%+.  Once you can predict outcomes at a rate this high you can set lines to induce action on the other side of what your model predicts, and make a killing at it. 

    In a way Tone is absolutely right, but what he doesn't realize is he just sees through the ruse.  It's not a trap to him because he wasn't fooled by the lines.  But a large population of the gambling public isn't informed enough to see through it and fall prey to the "easy picks" that go wrong.  What's fair line value to some is a trap to others.


    I will take this bet. Go find one of your vegas linesmakers (I mean, game predictors) and we will make this bet.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    Of course they have zero control over the actual outcome.  What they do have control over is prediction of outcome.  A good capper can predict what, 60-65% correctly?  A good capper has a fraction of the resources available to them that the odds makers have.  They hire the best statisticians, psychologists,  and field researchers money can buy.  They  have access to pro teams that we can only dream about.  They have complex algorithms written by the brightest nerds in the world and have all the right information to populate the algorithms. 

    A good capper can predict game outcomes 60-65%.  I'm willing to bet the oddsmakers can predict outcomes at a rate of 80%+.  Once you can predict outcomes at a rate this high you can set lines to induce action on the other side of what your model predicts, and make a killing at it. 

    In a way Tone is absolutely right, but what he doesn't realize is he just sees through the ruse.  It's not a trap to him because he wasn't fooled by the lines.  But a large population of the gambling public isn't informed enough to see through it and fall prey to the "easy picks" that go wrong.  What's fair line value to some is a trap to others.


    I will take this bet. Go find one of your vegas linesmakers (I mean, game predictors) and we will make this bet.


     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:42 PM ET #127

    Quote Originally Posted by liljdubs25:

    Hey 14allall41 may I ask, where do u get your information from? Thanks 

    I can't say that. Sorry. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by liljdubs25:

    Hey 14allall41 may I ask, where do u get your information from? Thanks 

    I can't say that. Sorry. 
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:43 PM ET #128

    Quote Originally Posted by Lambo:

    Anything else for today?

    Looking at CLE/BOS Over now. for the evening games will have something as well.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Lambo:

    Anything else for today?

    Looking at CLE/BOS Over now. for the evening games will have something as well.
     
    jaybosstein
    jaybosstein
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:49 PM ET #129

    I also would like some info about this if someone cares to share.
    Reply
    I also would like some info about this if someone cares to share.
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:51 PM ET #130

    Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

    I also would like some info about
    this if someone cares to share.
    What's that?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

    I also would like some info about
    this if someone cares to share.
    What's that?
     
    jaybosstein
    jaybosstein
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 3:56 PM ET #131

    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    What's that?
    . About the line moves like the example you gave about the Phillies/Marlins game today.  It seems like you got some accurate knowledge of what the public gets confused about, so I wouldn't mind getting some more insight into it.  I look at the %s and base picks off that.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    What's that?
    . About the line moves like the example you gave about the Phillies/Marlins game today.  It seems like you got some accurate knowledge of what the public gets confused about, so I wouldn't mind getting some more insight into it.  I look at the %s and base picks off that.
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:01 PM ET #132

    Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

    . About the line moves like the example you gave about the Phillies/Marlins game today.  It seems like you got some accurate knowledge of what the public gets confused about, so I wouldn't mind getting some more insight into it.  I look at the %s and base picks off that.
    The green section was quoted from another source.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jaybosstein:

    . About the line moves like the example you gave about the Phillies/Marlins game today.  It seems like you got some accurate knowledge of what the public gets confused about, so I wouldn't mind getting some more insight into it.  I look at the %s and base picks off that.
    The green section was quoted from another source.
     
    famfatale88
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:05 PM ET #133

    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    The green section was quoted from another source.
    Are you quoting Monster Killer? I read the similar text in his early leans.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    The green section was quoted from another source.
    Are you quoting Monster Killer? I read the similar text in his early leans.
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:12 PM ET #134

    Quote Originally Posted by famfatale88:

    Are you quoting Monster Killer? I read the similar text in his early leans.
    Why is that important to know? The fact is that worked.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by famfatale88:

    Are you quoting Monster Killer? I read the similar text in his early leans.
    Why is that important to know? The fact is that worked.
     
    HutchEmAll
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:17 PM ET #135

    Quote Originally Posted by juliansorrel:


    My friend, whatever you're trying to deny  - exists. As simple as that. LVSC is not a bunch of naive out of college oddsmakers. Those people have to first of all make sure the books don't lose on games they can't even the sides and totals. Then they have to make sure the betting triads won't be able to manipulate the lines and odds. Then they have to advise about RLM if needed. All those actions are not directed to cheat anyone but to protect the principal interests of the books and we, the simple joes are falling victim to not knowing the real money moves. That is all. As I see this thread, we're trying to unite our knowledge to get as protected as possible from falling victims. That is all. You're trying too hard to prove your shit don't stink, but it does as anyones, although your avatar lady is ...wow

    If you don't know what I'm denying, how can you know that it exists?  

    Does Vegas end up with exposure at times?  Of course.  Some they don't mind.....some they certainly get nervous about.  But for the last time, they do NOT know the outcome of games prior to the event.  Is this really that hard for people to understand?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by juliansorrel:


    My friend, whatever you're trying to deny  - exists. As simple as that. LVSC is not a bunch of naive out of college oddsmakers. Those people have to first of all make sure the books don't lose on games they can't even the sides and totals. Then they have to make sure the betting triads won't be able to manipulate the lines and odds. Then they have to advise about RLM if needed. All those actions are not directed to cheat anyone but to protect the principal interests of the books and we, the simple joes are falling victim to not knowing the real money moves. That is all. As I see this thread, we're trying to unite our knowledge to get as protected as possible from falling victims. That is all. You're trying too hard to prove your shit don't stink, but it does as anyones, although your avatar lady is ...wow

    If you don't know what I'm denying, how can you know that it exists?  

    Does Vegas end up with exposure at times?  Of course.  Some they don't mind.....some they certainly get nervous about.  But for the last time, they do NOT know the outcome of games prior to the event.  Is this really that hard for people to understand?
     
    HutchEmAll
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:19 PM ET #136

    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    Why is that important to know? The fact is that worked.

    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:

    Why is that important to know? The fact is that worked.

    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:37 PM ET #137

    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?

    I'm happy you're rolling on the floor laughing. That is good for health. If you feel sad at times, all you gotta do is check in my funny threads. I will always have something that will amuse you. Your happiness is my goal. 

    Now to the essence of this conversation: Vegas is a general term and it is easy to attack the point by saying "Vegas does not know the result". Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. And it does not matter what you think or how high on yourself you are. You can laugh as much as you like  and you can act as a big fart  . I and many others here actually contribute winners, while you only contribute... What is that you contribute?
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?

    I'm happy you're rolling on the floor laughing. That is good for health. If you feel sad at times, all you gotta do is check in my funny threads. I will always have something that will amuse you. Your happiness is my goal. 

    Now to the essence of this conversation: Vegas is a general term and it is easy to attack the point by saying "Vegas does not know the result". Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. And it does not matter what you think or how high on yourself you are. You can laugh as much as you like  and you can act as a big fart  . I and many others here actually contribute winners, while you only contribute... What is that you contribute?
     
    HutchEmAll
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 4:58 PM ET #138

    Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. 


    Me?  High horse?  Because I can't believe people actually think like you do?  
    Reply
    Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. 


    Me?  High horse?  Because I can't believe people actually think like you do?  
     
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:01 PM ET #139

    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

    Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. 


    Me?  High horse?  Because I can't believe people actually think like you do?  

    I deliver according to what I think. Plain and simple. Not only on this thread. In contests and game threads. What do you do? You see, that is a high horse. You don't deliver. You only talk, but don't walk the walk. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:

    Of course they don't for every game. But those who are responsible for creating trap lines - they do. 


    Me?  High horse?  Because I can't believe people actually think like you do?  

    I deliver according to what I think. Plain and simple. Not only on this thread. In contests and game threads. What do you do? You see, that is a high horse. You don't deliver. You only talk, but don't walk the walk. 
     
    MistakeHitter
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:11 PM ET #140

    Vegas traps are easy to spot....now henderson traps thats another story....
    Reply
    Vegas traps are easy to spot....now henderson traps thats another story....
     
    Whalewatcher
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:12 PM ET #141

    note
    Reply
    note
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:12 PM ET #142

    Quote Originally Posted by whitewedding:

    It's true, you deliver. But you also do something that many of us don't even if we can. you have the guts to quote mk here like you wrote the book. You have a talent to create threads like the one about best ways to bet that had like 50k views, you have a talent to find good picks and monetize on them. You also cap from time to time. But, without mk, you're just an average joe. 

    We're all on the same side here Billy Idol. Don't get confused
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by whitewedding:

    It's true, you deliver. But you also do something that many of us don't even if we can. you have the guts to quote mk here like you wrote the book. You have a talent to create threads like the one about best ways to bet that had like 50k views, you have a talent to find good picks and monetize on them. You also cap from time to time. But, without mk, you're just an average joe. 

    We're all on the same side here Billy Idol. Don't get confused
     
    Pasteur
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:17 PM ET #143

    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?


    If you combine NCAA basketball last season and MLB this season, I've noticed roughly for every 2 "shady" looking spreads that the public get killed on there is 1 shady spread that vegas pays out on.  That's vegas winning 2 out of 3.  The funny thing is, if you play this system and win 67%, people will jump in on your thread every game you get wrong and denounce the system as bunk.  Which I find pretty interesting.

    Of course it's subjective of what constitutes a shady spread or not.  Most of the time it just means vegas knows something I don't, which is a handy piece of information in itself.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?


    If you combine NCAA basketball last season and MLB this season, I've noticed roughly for every 2 "shady" looking spreads that the public get killed on there is 1 shady spread that vegas pays out on.  That's vegas winning 2 out of 3.  The funny thing is, if you play this system and win 67%, people will jump in on your thread every game you get wrong and denounce the system as bunk.  Which I find pretty interesting.

    Of course it's subjective of what constitutes a shady spread or not.  Most of the time it just means vegas knows something I don't, which is a handy piece of information in itself.
     
    Pasteur
    Pasteur
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:20 PM ET #144

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



    I will take this bet. Go find one of your vegas linesmakers (I mean, game predictors) and we will make this bet.




    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



    I will take this bet. Go find one of your vegas linesmakers (I mean, game predictors) and we will make this bet.




    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:36 PM ET #145

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given

    I'll go as far as saying that when there is some "predefined" result that goes wrong by some reason, the next game with those teams is the best one to bet as it happened to me several times. It is like a team that did't deliver - owes one. And the team that enjoyed that non deliver situation - loses ats the next one. The person I quote developed the whole code on it. And those familiar know what I'm talking about. It can be used in any sports and some guys were using it even on NRL in Australia
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given

    I'll go as far as saying that when there is some "predefined" result that goes wrong by some reason, the next game with those teams is the best one to bet as it happened to me several times. It is like a team that did't deliver - owes one. And the team that enjoyed that non deliver situation - loses ats the next one. The person I quote developed the whole code on it. And those familiar know what I'm talking about. It can be used in any sports and some guys were using it even on NRL in Australia
     
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:36 PM ET #146

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given


    There are ZERO 60% winners laying 10 cents or less with a 100+ sample size. Anyone on this site who hits 60% does it with an extremely small sample size or lays juice on every bet. Baseball "percentages" are meaningless because of the variances in moneyline prices.

    Spreads in other sports are different, and I can assure you no one with a large sample size hits 60%+.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



    As if I can find one of the closely guarded secrets in the gambling industry?  Maybe they can only predict outcomes at a rate of 70%, give or take.  That's still a huge edge.

    If some of the shmucks on this website can hit 60% winners with none of the vast resources or algorithms the linesmakers have, is it that much a stretch to think they can outperform the amateurs by 10-20%?  I think it's a given


    There are ZERO 60% winners laying 10 cents or less with a 100+ sample size. Anyone on this site who hits 60% does it with an extremely small sample size or lays juice on every bet. Baseball "percentages" are meaningless because of the variances in moneyline prices.

    Spreads in other sports are different, and I can assure you no one with a large sample size hits 60%+.
     
    mmac66
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:48 PM ET #147

    How many times a day or week are there games with a predetermined outcome?
    Reply
    How many times a day or week are there games with a predetermined outcome?
     
    jabber
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 5:59 PM ET #148

    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!
    Reply
    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 8:59 PM ET #149

    Quote Originally Posted by jabber:

    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!

    One of the Two: your either are a Moron, or you work for Books. Otherwise I see no reason for you to contradict and deny the obvious. Why waste your time commenting on our garbage "trap lines". Predicting is one think, knowing is another. The whole concept of line and odds making is based on educated predictions. How else you think the odds makers work? Now, one level higher than that is using the information which public has no access to for books advantage. If you didn't know before - please let me enlighten you - the Books are the ones who pay odds makers for their work. You pay to books with your losses and juice. Most is a juice money but not always the books can afford working with juice only because when there is an obvious favorite matched with an obvious dog - there is no way books can balance the bets and gain only on juice. In that instance - to protect themselves books have no choice but manipulate lines, odds, info and all the other tools in order to convince us that the favorite is not such a strong one (star players declared as injured etc) and when that doesn't work either - they have to use other tools which is for me to know and for you to guess. But the books don't succeed all the time on that so in some cases they have to unleash preemptive strikes in form of trap lines. I know you're not used to process so much info at once, so I suggest you read a sentence a day before you comprehend moron
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jabber:

    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!

    One of the Two: your either are a Moron, or you work for Books. Otherwise I see no reason for you to contradict and deny the obvious. Why waste your time commenting on our garbage "trap lines". Predicting is one think, knowing is another. The whole concept of line and odds making is based on educated predictions. How else you think the odds makers work? Now, one level higher than that is using the information which public has no access to for books advantage. If you didn't know before - please let me enlighten you - the Books are the ones who pay odds makers for their work. You pay to books with your losses and juice. Most is a juice money but not always the books can afford working with juice only because when there is an obvious favorite matched with an obvious dog - there is no way books can balance the bets and gain only on juice. In that instance - to protect themselves books have no choice but manipulate lines, odds, info and all the other tools in order to convince us that the favorite is not such a strong one (star players declared as injured etc) and when that doesn't work either - they have to use other tools which is for me to know and for you to guess. But the books don't succeed all the time on that so in some cases they have to unleash preemptive strikes in form of trap lines. I know you're not used to process so much info at once, so I suggest you read a sentence a day before you comprehend moron
     
     
    rated91
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:03 PM ET #150

    There is no "trap" game...ever. Two teams are going to play, one team is going to win. It's that simple. Where is the "trap" in any of that?
    Reply
    There is no "trap" game...ever. Two teams are going to play, one team is going to win. It's that simple. Where is the "trap" in any of that?
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