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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    How you can tell a Straight game from a Vegas trap game?

    «First Previous 123 ... 678 Next Last»
    tahrir2011
    rangerz2478
    Pasteur
    14allall41
    awright22
    ...
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    Views: 15207
    Posts: 185
    «First Previous 123 ... 678 Next Last»
     
    tahrir2011
    tahrir2011
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:13 PM ET #151

    @rated91 - r u serious? If u don't know what a "trap line" is u better quit gambling. ASAP. If I was u - before commenting in such ignorant manner - I would at least read the whole thread trying to understand what all the people here r talking about
    Reply
    @rated91 - r u serious? If u don't know what a "trap line" is u better quit gambling. ASAP. If I was u - before commenting in such ignorant manner - I would at least read the whole thread trying to understand what all the people here r talking about
     
    rangerz2478
    rangerz2478
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:39 PM ET #152

    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:


    One of the Two: your either are a Moron, or you work for Books. Otherwise I see no reason for you to contradict and deny the obvious. Why waste your time commenting on our garbage "trap lines". Predicting is one think, knowing is another. The whole concept of line and odds making is based on educated predictions. How else you think the odds makers work? Now, one level higher than that is using the information which public has no access to for books advantage. If you didn't know before - please let me enlighten you - the Books are the ones who pay odds makers for their work. You pay to books with your losses and juice. Most is a juice money but not always the books can afford working with juice only because when there is an obvious favorite matched with an obvious dog - there is no way books can balance the bets and gain only on juice. In that instance - to protect themselves books have no choice but manipulate lines, odds, info and all the other tools in order to convince us that the favorite is not such a strong one (star players declared as injured etc) and when that doesn't work either - they have to use other tools which is for me to know and for you to guess. But the books don't succeed all the time on that so in some cases they have to unleash preemptive strikes in form of trap lines. I know you're not used to process so much info at once, so I suggest you read a sentence a day before you comprehend moron


    You sound like a guy who has the entire gambling world figured out.

    Because of this, you should be a millionaire on an island counting your winnings. Yet, you are on covers explaining trap lines.

    Yikes.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41:


    One of the Two: your either are a Moron, or you work for Books. Otherwise I see no reason for you to contradict and deny the obvious. Why waste your time commenting on our garbage "trap lines". Predicting is one think, knowing is another. The whole concept of line and odds making is based on educated predictions. How else you think the odds makers work? Now, one level higher than that is using the information which public has no access to for books advantage. If you didn't know before - please let me enlighten you - the Books are the ones who pay odds makers for their work. You pay to books with your losses and juice. Most is a juice money but not always the books can afford working with juice only because when there is an obvious favorite matched with an obvious dog - there is no way books can balance the bets and gain only on juice. In that instance - to protect themselves books have no choice but manipulate lines, odds, info and all the other tools in order to convince us that the favorite is not such a strong one (star players declared as injured etc) and when that doesn't work either - they have to use other tools which is for me to know and for you to guess. But the books don't succeed all the time on that so in some cases they have to unleash preemptive strikes in form of trap lines. I know you're not used to process so much info at once, so I suggest you read a sentence a day before you comprehend moron


    You sound like a guy who has the entire gambling world figured out.

    Because of this, you should be a millionaire on an island counting your winnings. Yet, you are on covers explaining trap lines.

    Yikes.
     
    Pasteur
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:52 PM ET #153

    Quote Originally Posted by jabber:

    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!


    They can't predict it with 100% certainty.  Do you ever watch poker tournaments on TV and two guys go all in, then they show the percentages on the side next to their hands?  Say one guy is 70% to win and the other guy is 30% to win.  The guy who got his chips in the middle with the 70% chance to win did the right thing, obviously.  But does that mean we can predict if he's going to win the hand or not?  No. 

    This is what I think line makers do on certain games.  They can't predict the outcome with certainty but they get their money in good 70% of the time, and in the long run that's big profit, regardless of the fact they'll get unlucky 30% of the time.  I'm making these percentages up just to illustrate the point of how they can likely predict outcomes with a reasonable amount of error.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jabber:

    Amazing how many morons there are on covers. Where do you come up with all this "trap lines" garbage. Do you really think oddsmakers can predict the outcome of a freaking baseball game!!!


    They can't predict it with 100% certainty.  Do you ever watch poker tournaments on TV and two guys go all in, then they show the percentages on the side next to their hands?  Say one guy is 70% to win and the other guy is 30% to win.  The guy who got his chips in the middle with the 70% chance to win did the right thing, obviously.  But does that mean we can predict if he's going to win the hand or not?  No. 

    This is what I think line makers do on certain games.  They can't predict the outcome with certainty but they get their money in good 70% of the time, and in the long run that's big profit, regardless of the fact they'll get unlucky 30% of the time.  I'm making these percentages up just to illustrate the point of how they can likely predict outcomes with a reasonable amount of error.
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:53 PM ET #154

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



    You sound like a guy who has the entire gambling world figured out.

    Because of this, you should be a millionaire on an island counting your winnings. Yet, you are on covers explaining trap lines.

    Yikes.
    So, is that what you think people who make money from gambling do?  I have a season tics for the Rangers my dear unwitty friend (once it was blue sits, now I can afford the green ones), so how can I move to an island. Would you if you won? 
    and what a girly Yikes is that? man up - spit on the floor like a man
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



    You sound like a guy who has the entire gambling world figured out.

    Because of this, you should be a millionaire on an island counting your winnings. Yet, you are on covers explaining trap lines.

    Yikes.
    So, is that what you think people who make money from gambling do?  I have a season tics for the Rangers my dear unwitty friend (once it was blue sits, now I can afford the green ones), so how can I move to an island. Would you if you won? 
    and what a girly Yikes is that? man up - spit on the floor like a man
     
    awright22
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 9:56 PM ET #155

    14allall41 - A wise man never argues with fools. Do what you do and entertain only those that want to be entertained. Anyone else simply does not exist. Keep doing what you do. 
    Reply
    14allall41 - A wise man never argues with fools. Do what you do and entertain only those that want to be entertained. Anyone else simply does not exist. Keep doing what you do. 
     
    tafter12
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:21 PM ET #156

    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?


    Have you been watching my threads at all?  The shiny lures play is hitting 64% right now.The favorites are not high juice either.  BOL to you though with your plays

    I have a play called, The Fulcrum, that's doing even better, and will probably continue doing so, but I won't define that play to a single soul. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by HutchEmAll:


    One game.  


    Why don't you do a little experiment.  Start a thread and pick 50 - 75 games based on this "trap system."  Keep track of your record and we'll see how it does.  It would be an interesting case study, don't you think?


    Have you been watching my threads at all?  The shiny lures play is hitting 64% right now.The favorites are not high juice either.  BOL to you though with your plays

    I have a play called, The Fulcrum, that's doing even better, and will probably continue doing so, but I won't define that play to a single soul. 
     
    awright22
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:28 PM ET #157

    I have been following you Taft and I must say that you are pretty darn good. Thanks for your plays. 
    Reply
    I have been following you Taft and I must say that you are pretty darn good. Thanks for your plays. 
     
    tafter12
    tafter12
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:40 PM ET #158

    Quote Originally Posted by awright22:

    I have been following you Taft and I must say that you are pretty darn good. Thanks for your plays. 


    Thanks AW...

    I thought it was ironic that HutchemAll was wanting Pasteur to have 50 to 75 plays as evidence.  The Shiny lures play just made it to 50 plays recently. 

    BTW, 50 to 75 still isn't enough, and even if it stops working, it doesn't mean to throw it away.  It only means to use it in certain spots of the season, IMO.


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by awright22:

    I have been following you Taft and I must say that you are pretty darn good. Thanks for your plays. 


    Thanks AW...

    I thought it was ironic that HutchemAll was wanting Pasteur to have 50 to 75 plays as evidence.  The Shiny lures play just made it to 50 plays recently. 

    BTW, 50 to 75 still isn't enough, and even if it stops working, it doesn't mean to throw it away.  It only means to use it in certain spots of the season, IMO.


     
    juliansorrel
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:41 PM ET #159

    14all, the man who you quote is on a 10-0 run and 14-2 in last 3 days!!!
    Reply
    14all, the man who you quote is on a 10-0 run and 14-2 in last 3 days!!!
     
    awright22
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:44 PM ET #160

    Where is he Julian?
    Reply
    Where is he Julian?
     
    tafter12
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:46 PM ET #161

    Uhh....
    I'm referring to post #140 on page #6 of this thread.  

    It was, HUTCHEMALL, according to what my eyes are seeing. 
    Reply
    Uhh....
    I'm referring to post #140 on page #6 of this thread.  

    It was, HUTCHEMALL, according to what my eyes are seeing. 
     
    juliansorrel
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:52 PM ET #162

    Quote Originally Posted by awright22:

    Where is he Julian?
    cant tell you. like to. but cant
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by awright22:

    Where is he Julian?
    cant tell you. like to. but cant
     
    awright22
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:53 PM ET #163

    Understandable
    Reply
    Understandable
     
    tahrir2011
    tahrir2011
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    Posted: Aug. 15, 2012 - 10:58 PM ET #164

    [Quote: Originally Posted by juliansorrel] 14all, the man who you quote is on a 10-0 run and 14-2 in last 3 days!!!
    [/Quote
    Reply
    [Quote: Originally Posted by juliansorrel] 14all, the man who you quote is on a 10-0 run and 14-2 in last 3 days!!!
    [/Quote
     
    PapaShango
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    Posted: Aug. 16, 2012 - 1:46 AM ET #165

    This thread is dumb. 
    Reply
    This thread is dumb. 
     
    composite
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    Posted: Aug. 16, 2012 - 2:24 AM ET #166

    I think people misunderstand the concept of "trap."  It doesn't mean the trap side will win 100% of the time. That's impossible.

    But OTOH, bookies set a pointspread for a reason.  In almost all games one side has a higher probability of winning.  So they create a pointspread.  Supposedly, the pointspread handicaps the stronger team so that both teams have an equal chance at "covering" the bet.   

    Plenty of time, I imagine the collective betting public correctly perceives the pointspread. But occasionally I believe oddsmakers (who make a living analyzing sports) believe there's a different probability than what the public perceives. That, IMHO, is what makes a "trap."

    For example, let's say bookies set a pointspread on an NBA game, such as LA Lakers -6 at NO Hornets.  But let's say the bookies know the Lakers have only a 40% chance of covering.  And the Hornets have a 60% chance.  If 70% of the betting action is on the Lakers.... then why move the line???   Why make the line higher and attract NO Hornet bettors??? That's stupid.  You're giving away money.

    Will Vegas lose sometimes? Sure.  The Lakers will cover 40% of the time.  But if oddsmakers are right -- and  I don't know any casino that's ever shut down its sportsbook b/c it lost $$$ -- then they'll make waaaay more money than trying to get equal action on both sides.

    That IMO, defines a trap game.

    Reply

    I think people misunderstand the concept of "trap."  It doesn't mean the trap side will win 100% of the time. That's impossible.

    But OTOH, bookies set a pointspread for a reason.  In almost all games one side has a higher probability of winning.  So they create a pointspread.  Supposedly, the pointspread handicaps the stronger team so that both teams have an equal chance at "covering" the bet.   

    Plenty of time, I imagine the collective betting public correctly perceives the pointspread. But occasionally I believe oddsmakers (who make a living analyzing sports) believe there's a different probability than what the public perceives. That, IMHO, is what makes a "trap."

    For example, let's say bookies set a pointspread on an NBA game, such as LA Lakers -6 at NO Hornets.  But let's say the bookies know the Lakers have only a 40% chance of covering.  And the Hornets have a 60% chance.  If 70% of the betting action is on the Lakers.... then why move the line???   Why make the line higher and attract NO Hornet bettors??? That's stupid.  You're giving away money.

    Will Vegas lose sometimes? Sure.  The Lakers will cover 40% of the time.  But if oddsmakers are right -- and  I don't know any casino that's ever shut down its sportsbook b/c it lost $$$ -- then they'll make waaaay more money than trying to get equal action on both sides.

    That IMO, defines a trap game.

     
    cl1
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 12:57 AM ET #167

    Here is a Trap Line:
    Friday: OAK(Milone)/CLE(McCalister)  U/O 7.  Not the recrds, not the stats and not the last games can suggest such ridiculously low totals line. I am locking in Under 7 since that is the classic trap line. I wonder if I should wait for a line to go up a bit and then lock but I'm sure the books won't move it doesn't matter how much money will be on Over.
    Reply
    Here is a Trap Line:
    Friday: OAK(Milone)/CLE(McCalister)  U/O 7.  Not the recrds, not the stats and not the last games can suggest such ridiculously low totals line. I am locking in Under 7 since that is the classic trap line. I wonder if I should wait for a line to go up a bit and then lock but I'm sure the books won't move it doesn't matter how much money will be on Over.
     
    juliansorrel
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:04 AM ET #168

    Quote Originally Posted by cl1:

    Here is a Trap Line:
    Friday: OAK(Milone)/CLE(McCalister)  U/O 7.  Not the recrds, not the stats and not the last games can suggest such ridiculously low totals line. I am locking in Under 7 since that is the classic trap line. I wonder if I should wait for a line to go up a bit and then lock but I'm sure the books won't move it doesn't matter how much money will be on Over.

    Nice. But I prefer to wait on MK on that as he is champion of not getting trapped. Lost yesterday 1st game in 3 days going 17-3 in last 4 days and it seemed like the end of the world. All baseball. Funny how our psychic is built that anyday we will take 3-1 day like yesterday but because it ended a streak - seemed like a catastrophy. That was on COL vs MIA over. Well, let's get this trap line shit straight and I'll be riding that under big. Thanks cl1
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by cl1:

    Here is a Trap Line:
    Friday: OAK(Milone)/CLE(McCalister)  U/O 7.  Not the recrds, not the stats and not the last games can suggest such ridiculously low totals line. I am locking in Under 7 since that is the classic trap line. I wonder if I should wait for a line to go up a bit and then lock but I'm sure the books won't move it doesn't matter how much money will be on Over.

    Nice. But I prefer to wait on MK on that as he is champion of not getting trapped. Lost yesterday 1st game in 3 days going 17-3 in last 4 days and it seemed like the end of the world. All baseball. Funny how our psychic is built that anyday we will take 3-1 day like yesterday but because it ended a streak - seemed like a catastrophy. That was on COL vs MIA over. Well, let's get this trap line shit straight and I'll be riding that under big. Thanks cl1
     
    Pasteur
    Pasteur
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:09 AM ET #169

    @ composite,

    You "get it" 

    Hit the nail on the head my friend
    Reply
    @ composite,

    You "get it" 

    Hit the nail on the head my friend
     
    Pasteur
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:13 AM ET #170

    I don't see anything off about that cle/oak line.  Two good pitchers, and Oaktown is a pretty consistent under venue.  I expect most of the public to be on the under in this one
    Reply
    I don't see anything off about that cle/oak line.  Two good pitchers, and Oaktown is a pretty consistent under venue.  I expect most of the public to be on the under in this one
     
    juliansorrel
    juliansorrel
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:22 AM ET #171

    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

    I don't see anything off about that cle/oak line.  Two good pitchers, and Oaktown is a pretty consistent under venue.  I expect most of the public to be on the under in this one

    33 runs in Milones last 3 games and 31 runs in last 3 games of MacAlister. And MacAlister had his due good outing in the last game (5-2) lasting 8 innings. I would say Over is a sure push here and gain. So, that is a trap. But as I said - I'm waiting on MK
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:

    I don't see anything off about that cle/oak line.  Two good pitchers, and Oaktown is a pretty consistent under venue.  I expect most of the public to be on the under in this one

    33 runs in Milones last 3 games and 31 runs in last 3 games of MacAlister. And MacAlister had his due good outing in the last game (5-2) lasting 8 innings. I would say Over is a sure push here and gain. So, that is a trap. But as I said - I'm waiting on MK
     
    Raider99
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:44 AM ET #172

    What amazing to me is that most ppl notice a "trap" line but tend not to pay it any attention, two examples that were crystal clear who was going to win.

    Astros second game againt the Cubs on the road where the are a joke, yet they were at even money, make no sense right? Houston won

    Last night pre season football.....how are the sorry ass browns ever with in 3 pts of Green Bay, whole word jumped on GB and they lost straight up.

    If you know what to look for Vegas is telling you which side to go.

    Reply

    What amazing to me is that most ppl notice a "trap" line but tend not to pay it any attention, two examples that were crystal clear who was going to win.

    Astros second game againt the Cubs on the road where the are a joke, yet they were at even money, make no sense right? Houston won

    Last night pre season football.....how are the sorry ass browns ever with in 3 pts of Green Bay, whole word jumped on GB and they lost straight up.

    If you know what to look for Vegas is telling you which side to go.

     
    KktdocT
    KktdocT
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:46 AM ET #173

    i'm waiting on KK.


    Reply
    i'm waiting on KK.


     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:48 AM ET #174

    Quote Originally Posted by Raider99:

    What amazing to me is that most ppl notice a "trap" line but tend not to pay it any attention, two examples that were crystal clear who was going to win.

    Astros second game againt the Cubs on the road where the are a joke, yet they were at even money, make no sense right? Houston won

    Last night pre season football.....how are the sorry ass browns ever with in 3 pts of Green Bay, whole word jumped on GB and they lost straight up.

    If you know what to look for Vegas is telling you which side to go.


    You can add to the list WNBA NYL being only +3.5 against CONN. And they destroyed the visitors.
    You're right about being able to read vegas is a half way to the cashier
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Raider99:

    What amazing to me is that most ppl notice a "trap" line but tend not to pay it any attention, two examples that were crystal clear who was going to win.

    Astros second game againt the Cubs on the road where the are a joke, yet they were at even money, make no sense right? Houston won

    Last night pre season football.....how are the sorry ass browns ever with in 3 pts of Green Bay, whole word jumped on GB and they lost straight up.

    If you know what to look for Vegas is telling you which side to go.


    You can add to the list WNBA NYL being only +3.5 against CONN. And they destroyed the visitors.
    You're right about being able to read vegas is a half way to the cashier
     
     
    14allall41
    14allall41
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    Posted: Aug. 17, 2012 - 1:49 AM ET #175

    Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:

    i'm waiting on KK.


    That was sharp 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by KktdocT:

    i'm waiting on KK.


    That was sharp 
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